898 resultados para confidence level


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An interlaboratory comparison (ILC) was conducted to evaluate the proficiency of multiple laboratories to quantify dimethylsulfide (DMS) in aqueous solution. Ten participating laboratories were each supplied with blind duplicate test solutions containing dimethylsulfoniopropionate hydrochloride (DMSP HCl) dissolved in acidified artificial seawater. The test solutions were prepared by the coordinating laboratory from a DMSP HCl reference material that was synthesized and purity certified for this purpose. A concentration range was specified for the test solutions and the participating laboratories were requested to dilute them as required for their analytical procedure, together with the addition of excess alkali under gas-tight conditions to convert the DMSP to DMS. Twenty-two DMS concentrations and their estimated expanded measurement uncertainties (95% confidence level) were received from the laboratories. With two exceptions, the within-laboratory variability was 5% or less and the between-laboratory variability was ~ 25%. The magnitude of expanded measurement uncertainties reported from all participants ranged from 1% to 33% relative to the result. The information gained from this pilot ILC indicated the need for further test sample distribution studies of this type so that participating laboratories can identify systematic errors in their analysis procedures and realistically evaluate their measurement uncertainty. The outcome of ILC studies provides insights into the comparability of data in the global surface seawater DMS database.

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In this paper we present the first decadal reanalysis simulation of the biogeochemistry of the North West European shelf, along with a full evaluation of its skill and value. An error-characterized satellite product for chlorophyll was assimilated into a physical-biogeochemical model of the North East Atlantic, applying a localized Ensemble Kalman filter. The results showed that the reanalysis improved the model predictions of assimilated chlorophyll in 60% of the study region. Model validation metrics showed that the reanalysis had skill in matching a large dataset of in situ observations for ten ecosystem variables. Spearman rank correlations were significant and higher than 0.7 for physical-chemical variables (temperature, salinity, oxygen), ∼0.6 for chlorophyll and nutrients (phosphate, nitrate, silicate), and significant, though lower in value, for partial pressure of dissolved carbon dioxide (∼0.4). The reanalysis captured the magnitude of pH and ammonia observations, but not their variability. The value of the reanalysis for assessing environmental status and variability has been exemplified in two case studies. The first shows that between 340,000-380,000 km2 of shelf bottom waters were oxygen deficient potentially threatening bottom fishes and benthos. The second application confirmed that the shelf is a net sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, but the total amount of uptake varies between 36-46 Tg C yr−1 at a 90% confidence level. These results indicate that the reanalysis output dataset can inform the management of the North West European shelf ecosystem, in relation to eutrophication, fishery, and variability of the carbon cycle.

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One of the mechanisms proposed for heating the corona above solar active regions is the damping of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves. Continuing on previous work, we provide observational evidence for the existence of high-frequency MHD waves in coronal loops observed during the August 1999 total solar eclipse. A wavelet analysis is used to identify twenty 4 x 4 arcsec(2) areas showing intensity oscillations. All detections lie in the frequency range 0.15 - 0.25 Hz (7 - 4 s), last for at least 3 periods at a confidence level of more than 99% and arise just outside known coronal loops. This leads us to suggest that they occur in low emission-measure or different temperature loops associated with the active region.

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El presente trabajo analiza los conocimientos, opiniones y actitudes de los estudiantes universitarios sobre sus compañeros con discapacidad. La integración educativa y social de estos estudiantes es objeto de preocupación y estudio en todo el sistema educativo español, incluida la enseñanza superior en la que 21.942 universitarios con discapacidad se encontraban matriculados en el curso 2013-2014. El estudio se realiza en el marco de dos Proyectos de Innovación Educativa[1] de la Universidad de Málaga en los que se examinaron las actitudes del personal docente e investigador, el alumnado en general y el alumnado con discapacidad de esta institución. En este artículo se recogen las perspectivas de los estudiantes sin discapacidad, necesarias para medir el grado de aceptación dentro de las aulas universitarias. Se empleó una encuesta suministrada mediante correo electrónico a la totalidad de la población de estudiantes de la Universidad de Málaga (N= 32.464). El tamaño de la muestra fue de 620 estudiantes, por lo que trabajamos con un margen de error del 3,9% para la estimación de los porcentajes con un nivel de confianza del 95%. Los datos, analizados mediante análisis estadístico, visibilizan la importancia de un elevado grado de información y conocimiento así como de una experiencia directa con la discapacidad. Ambas circunstancias se traducen en actitudes más positivas y favorables. Tan solo el 20% de los alumnos manifestó haber recibido en alguna ocasión cualquier tipo de información sobre este asunto por parte de la Universidad; no obstante, la mayoría valora positivamente la presencia de alumnos con discapacidad en la Universidad, la posibilidad de contar ellos como compañeros de clase y el enriquecimiento que supone esta convivencia dentro del aula. Se discuten posibles acciones para mejorar las actitudes hacia los estudiantes con discapacidad. Además, se plantea incluir una perspectiva que promueva el empoderamiento de estos estudiantes. [1] PIE 10-135 y PIE 13-103.

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Aims.We aim to provide the atmospheric parameters and rotational velocities for a large sample of O- and early B-type stars, analysed in a homogeneous and consistent manner, for use in constraining theoretical models. Methods: Atmospheric parameters, stellar masses, and rotational velocities have been estimated for approximately 250 early B-type stars in the Large (LMC) and Small (SMC) Magellanic Clouds from high-resolution VLT-FLAMES data using the non-LTE TLUSTY model atmosphere code. This data set has been supplemented with our previous analyses of some 50 O-type stars (Mokiem et al. 2006, 2007) and 100 narrow-lined early B-type stars (Hunter et al. 2006; Trundle et al. 2007) from the same survey, providing a sample of ~400 early-type objects. Results: Comparison of the rotational velocities with evolutionary tracks suggests that the end of core hydrogen burning occurs later than currently predicted and we argue for an extension of the evolutionary tracks. We also show that the large number of the luminous blue supergiants observed in the fields are unlikely to have directly evolved from main-sequence massive O-type stars as neither their low rotational velocities nor their position on the H-R diagram are predicted. We suggest that blue loops or mass-transfer binary systems may populate the blue supergiant regime. By comparing the rotational velocity distributions of the Magellanic Cloud stars to a similar Galactic sample, we find that (at 3s confidence level) massive stars (above 8 M?) in the SMC rotate faster than those in the solar neighbourhood. However there appears to be no significant difference between the rotational velocity distributions in the Galaxy and the LMC. We find that the v sin i distributions in the SMC and LMC can modelled with an intrinsic rotational velocity distribution that is a Gaussian peaking at 175 km s-1 (SMC) and 100 km s-1 (LMC) with a 1/e half width of 150 km s-1. We find that in NGC 346 in the SMC, the 10-25 M? main-sequence stars appear to rotate faster than their higher mass counterparts. It is not expected that O-type stars spin down significantly through angular momentum loss via stellar winds at SMC metallicity, hence this could be a reflection of mass dependent birth spin rates. Recently Yoon et al. (2006) have determined rates of GRBs by modelling rapidly rotating massive star progenitors. Our measured rotational velocity distribution for the 10-25 M? stars is peaked at slightly higher velocities than they assume, supporting the idea that GRBs could come from rapid rotators with initial masses as low as 14 M? at low metallicities.

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The POINT-AGAPE collaboration is carrying out a search for gravitational microlensing toward M31 to reveal galactic dark matter in the form of MACHOs (Massive Astrophysical Compact Halo Objects) in the halos of the Milky Way and M31. A high-threshold analysis of 3 years of data yields 6 bright, short- duration microlensing events, which are confronted to a simulation of the observations and the analysis. The observed signal is much larger than expected from self lensing alone and we conclude, at the 95% confidence level, that at least 20% of the halo mass in the direction of M31 must be in the form of MACHOs if their average mass lies in the range 0.5-1 M-circle dot. This lower bound drops to 8% for MACHOs with masses similar to 0.01 M-circle dot. In addition, we discuss a likely binary microlensing candidate with caustic crossing. Its location, some 32' away from the centre of M31, supports our conclusion that we are detecting a MACHO signal in the direction of M31.

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The 1950s excavations by Charles McBurney in the Haua Fteah, a large karstic cave on the coast of northeast Libya, revealed a deep sequence of human occupation. Most subsequent research on North African prehistory refers to his discoveries and interpretations, but the chronology of its archaeological and geological sequences has been based on very early age determinations. This paper reports on the initial results of a comprehensive multi-method dating program undertaken as part of new work at the site, involving radiocarbon dating of charcoal, land snails and marine shell, cryptotephra investigations, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of sediments, and electron spin resonance (ESR) dating of tooth enamel. The dating samples were collected from the newly exposed and cleaned faces of the upper 7.5m of the ~14.0m-deep McBurney trench, which contain six of the seven major cultural phases that he identified. Despite problems of sediment transport and reworking, using a Bayesian statistical model the new dating program establishes a robust framework for the five major lithostratigraphic units identified in the stratigraphic succession, and for the major cultural units. The age of two anatomically modern human mandibles found by McBurney in Layer XXXIII near the base of his Levalloiso-Mousterian phase can now be estimated to between 73 and 65ka (thousands of years ago) at the 95.4% confidence level, within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 4. McBurney's Layer XXV, associated with Upper Palaeolithic Dabban blade industries, has a clear stratigraphic relationship with Campanian Ignimbrite tephra. Microlithic Oranian technologies developed following the climax of the Last Glacial Maximum and the more microlithic Capsian in the Younger Dryas. Neolithic pottery and perhaps domestic livestock were used in the cave from the mid Holocene but there is no certain evidence for plant cultivation until the Graeco-Roman period. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

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Dissertação de mestrado, Qualidade em Análises, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

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Dissertação de Mestrado, Mestrado em Qualidade em Análises, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

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Long-term contractual decisions are the basis of an efficient risk management. However those types of decisions have to be supported with a robust price forecast methodology. This paper reports a different approach for long-term price forecast which tries to give answers to that need. Making use of regression models, the proposed methodology has as main objective to find the maximum and a minimum Market Clearing Price (MCP) for a specific programming period, and with a desired confidence level α. Due to the problem complexity, the meta-heuristic Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) was used to find the best regression parameters and the results compared with the obtained by using a Genetic Algorithm (GA). To validate these models, results from realistic data are presented and discussed in detail.

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This paper proposes a particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach to support electricity producers for multiperiod optimal contract allocation. The producer risk preference is stated by a utility function (U) expressing the tradeoff between the expectation and variance of the return. Variance estimation and expected return are based on a forecasted scenario interval determined by a price range forecasting model developed by the authors. A certain confidence level is associated to each forecasted scenario interval. The proposed model makes use of contracts with physical (spot and forward) and financial (options) settlement. PSO performance was evaluated by comparing it with a genetic algorithm-based approach. This model can be used by producers in deregulated electricity markets but can easily be adapted to load serving entities and retailers. Moreover, it can easily be adapted to the use of other type of contracts.

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Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química e Biológica

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In this paper, we present two Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) models for compressive and flexural strength responses of a concrete composite material reinforced with pultrusion wastes. The main objective is to characterize this cost-effective waste management solution for glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) pultrusion wastes and end-of-life products that will lead, thereby, to a more sustainable composite materials industry. The experiments took into account formulations with the incorporation of three different weight contents of GFRP waste materials into polyester based mortars, as sand aggregate and filler replacements, two waste particle size grades and the incorporation of silane adhesion promoter into the polyester resin matrix in order to improve binder aggregates interfaces. The regression models were achieved for these data and two latent variables were identified as suitable, with a 95% confidence level. This technological option, for improving the quality of GFRP filled polymer mortars, is viable thus opening a door to selective recycling of GFRP waste and its use in the production of concrete-polymer based products. However, further and complementary studies will be necessary to confirm the technical and economic viability of the process.

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There has been an increase in the use of telephone-based services and internet throughout the years and, therefore, the Saúde 24 Hotline has become an important service in Portugal. This service aims to screen, counsel and refer the patient in order to avoid unnecessary visits to health institutions and also to indicate the most appropriate resource according to the illness. This work has two different questions: the first one examines the determinants of satisfaction that have more influence on the overall satisfaction of the Saúde 24 Hotline users. The second one aims to analyze if the confidence level of the users is increasing over time, measured by following the recommendation. The first study was conducted on a random sample collected from June to October 2014, which was taken from the User Satisfaction Survey. The second approach includes data from January 2008 to December 2014 from the Clinical Data Base of all users who have called the Hotline. Findings suggest that the majority of users are very satisfied with the service and the variables with more impact on the overall satisfaction are commitment and availability from the nurse, adequacy of call duration and quick identification of the problem. The survey indicates that 94% of respondents follow the recommendation and on average people have called the hotline 3 times in the previous year. The results from the Clinical Database show that people who were recommended to go to the emergency room are more likely to follow the advice than the people who were recommended to book routine appointments

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Cette étude exploratoire vise essentiellement à identifier les principaux facteurs psychologiques des gardiens de but au hockey ayant connu du succès. Plus précisément, cette étude nous a permis d’approfondir le sujet à l’aide d’entrevues individuelles semi-dirigées menées auprès de sept gardiens de but et huit entraîneurs des gardiens de but issus de la Ligue de hockey junior majeur du Québec (LHJMQ). Nous avons ensuite comparé les réponses de ces deux groupes d’experts dans le domaine afin de dresser un portrait précis de l’aspect mental entourant cette position au hockey. Nos résultats démontrent que les mêmes facteurs psychologiques majeurs ressortent du discours des gardiens de but et de celui de leurs entraîneurs. Il a ainsi été possible d’identifier neuf attributs psychologiques prédominants provenant des discours de chacune des parties. Plus précisément, ces neuf facteurs psychologiques reliés à l’atteinte d’une performance athlétique hors pair seraient les traits de personnalité, la résilience, le niveau de confiance, la passion, l’état d’esprit optimal, l’éthique au quotidien, un niveau de concentration optimal, la relativisation des événements et le contrôle des émotions. De manière générale, nos résultats vont dans le même sens que les conclusions tirées des autres études sur les différents aspects mentaux des athlètes de niveau élite. Toutefois, on observe un manque de données scientifiques en ce qui a trait à la psychologie du sport chez les gardiens de but au hockey. Cette étude constitue donc un premier développement dans l’identification des atouts psychologiques influençant la performance des gardiens de but au hockey.