990 resultados para climate reconstruction
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Ilmasto vaikuttaa ekologisiin prosesseihin eri tasoilla. Suuren mittakaavan ilmastoprosessit, yhdessä ilmakehän ja valtamerien kanssa, säätelevät paikallisia sääilmiöitä suurilla alueilla (mantereista pallopuoliskoihin). Tämä väistöskirja pyrkii selittämään kuinka suuren mittakaavan ilmasto on vaikuttanut tiettyihin ekologisiin prosesseihin pohjoisella havumetsäalueella. Valitut prosessit olivat puiden vuosilustojen kasvu, metsäpalojen esiintyminen ja vuoristomäntykovakuoriaisen aiheuttamat puukuolemat. Suuren mittakaavan ilmaston löydettiin vaikuttaneen näiden prosessien esiintymistiheyteen, kestoon ja levinneisyyteen keskeisten sään muuttujien välityksellä hyvin laajoilla alueilla. Tutkituilla prosesseilla oli vahva yhteys laajan mittakaavan ilmastoon. Yhteys on kuitenkin ollut hyvin dynaaminen ja muuttunut 1900-luvulla ilmastonmuutoksen aiheuttaessa muutoksia suuren mittakaavan ja alueellisten ilmastoprosessien välisiin sisäisiin suhteisiin.
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Being at the crossroads of the Old World continents, Western Asia has a unique position through which the dispersal and migration of mammals and the interaction of faunal bioprovinces occurred. Despite its critical position, the record of Miocene mammals in Western Asia is sporadic and there are large spatial and temporal gaps between the known fossil localities. Although the development of the mammalian faunas in the Miocene of the Old World is well known and there is ample evidence for environmental shifts in this epoch, efforts toward quantification of habitat changes and development of chronofaunas based on faunal compositions were mostly neglected. Advancement of chronological, paleoclimatological, and paleogeographical reconstruction tools and techniques and increased numbers of new discoveries in recent decades have brought the need for updating and modification of our level of understanding. We under took fieldwork and systematic study of mammalian trace and body fossils from the northwestern parts of Iran along with analysis of large mammal data from the NOW database. The data analysis was used to study the provinciality, relative abundance, and distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted taxa and chronofaunas in the Miocene of the Old World and Western Asia. The provinciality analysis was carried out, using locality clustering, and the relative abundance of the closed- and open-adapted taxa was surveyed at the family level. The distribution history of the chronofaunas was studied, using faunal resemblance indices and new mapping techniques, together with humidity analysis based on mean ordinated hypsodonty. Paleoichnological studies revealed the abundance of mammalian footprints in several parts of the basins studied, which are normally not fossiliferous in terms of body fossils. The systematic study and biochronology of the newly discovered mammalian fossils in northwestern Iran indicates their close affinities with middle Turolian faunas. Large cranial remains of hipparionine horses, previously unknown in Iran and Western Asia, are among the material studied. The initiation of a new field project in the famous Maragheh locality also brings new opportunities to address questions regarding the chronology and paleoenvironment of this classical site. Provinciality analysis modified our previous level of understandings, indicating the interaction of four provinces in Western Asia. The development of these provinces was apparently due to the presence of high mountain ranges in the area, which affected the dispersal of mammals and also climatic patterns. Higher temperatures and possibly higher co2 levels in the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum apparently favored the development of the closed forested environments that supported the dominance of the closed-adapted taxa. The increased seasonality and the progressive cooling and drying of the midlatitudes toward the Late Miocene maintained the dominance of open-adapted faunas. It appears that the late Middle Miocene was the time of transition from a more forested to a less forested world. The distribution history of the closed- and open-adapted chronofaunas shows the presence of cosmopolitan and endemic faunas in Western Asia. The closed-adapted faunas, such as the Arabian chronofauna of the late Early‒early Middle Miocene, demonstrated a rapid buildup and gradual decline. The open-adapted chronofaunas, such as the Late Miocene Maraghean fauna, climaxed gradually by filling the opening environments and moving in response to changes in humidity patterns. They abruptly declined due to demise of their favored environments. The Siwalikan chronofauna of the early Late Miocene remained endemic and restricted through all its history. This study highlights the importance of field investigations and indicates that new surveys in the vast areas of Western Asia, which are poorly sampled in terms of fossil mammal localities, can still be promising. Clustering of the localities supports the consistency of formerly known patterns and augments them. Although the quantitative approach to relative abundance history of the closed- and open-adapted mammals harks back to more than half a century ago, it is a novel technique providing robust results. Tracking the history of the chronofaunas in space and time by means of new computational and illustration methods is also a new practice that can be expanded to new areas and time spans.
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Solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation has a broad range of effects concerning life on Earth. Soon after the mid-1980s, it was recognized that the stratospheric ozone content was declining over large areas of the globe. Because the stratospheric ozone layer protects life on Earth from harmful UV radiation, this lead to concern about possible changes in the UV radiation due to anthropogenic activity. Initiated by this concern, many stations for monitoring of the surface UV radiation were founded in the late 1980s and early 1990s. As a consequence, there is an apparent lack of information on UV radiation further in the past: measurements cannot tell us how the UV radiation levels have changed on time scales of, for instance, several decades. The aim of this thesis was to improve our understanding of past variations in the surface UV radiation by developing techniques for UV reconstruction. Such techniques utilize commonly available meteorological data together with measurements of the total ozone column for reconstructing, or estimating, the amount of UV radiation reaching Earth's surface in the past. Two different techniques for UV reconstruction were developed. Both are based on first calculating the clear-sky UV radiation using a radiative transfer model. The clear-sky value is then corrected for the effect of clouds based on either (i) sunshine duration or (ii) pyranometer measurements. Both techniques account also for the variations in the surface albedo caused by snow, whereas aerosols are included as a typical climatological aerosol load. Using these methods, long time series of reconstructed UV radiation were produced for five European locations, namely Sodankylä and Jokioinen in Finland, Bergen in Norway, Norrköping in Sweden, and Davos in Switzerland. Both UV reconstruction techniques developed in this thesis account for the greater part of the factors affecting the amount of UV radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Thus, they are considered reliable and trustworthy, as suggested also by the good performance of the methods. The pyranometer-based method shows better performance than the sunshine-based method, especially for daily values. For monthly values, the difference between the performances of the methods is smaller, indicating that the sunshine-based method is roughly as good as the pyranometer-based for assessing long-term changes in the surface UV radiation. The time series of reconstructed UV radiation produced in this thesis provide new insight into the past UV radiation climate and how the UV radiation has varied throughout the years. Especially the sunshine-based UV time series, extending back to 1926 and 1950 at Davos and Sodankylä, respectively, also put the recent changes driven by the ozone decline observed over the last few decades into perspective. At Davos, the reconstructed UV over the period 1926-2003 shows considerable variation throughout the entire period, with high values in the mid-1940s, early 1960s, and in the 1990s. Moreover, the variations prior to 1980 were found to be caused primarily by variations in the cloudiness, while the increase of 4.5 %/decade over the period 1979-1999 was supported by both the decline in the total ozone column and changes in the cloudiness. Of the other stations included in this work, both Sodankylä and Norrköping show a clear increase in the UV radiation since the early 1980s (3-4 %/decade), driven primarily by changes in the cloudiness, and to a lesser extent by the diminution of the total ozone. At Jokioinen, a weak increase was found, while at Bergen there was no considerable overall change in the UV radiation level.
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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.
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A well-documented history of past climatic conditions is needed to understand and resolve some ecological problems, but the existing climatological records are too short to detect long-term climatic variability and changes. Some trees, such as pines, produce annual tree rings with different widths depending on prevailing environmental conditions, such as climate. Tree-ring analysis of long-lived trees can be used to estimate past variations in climate. The principal aim of this study is to reconstruct aridity for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, by means of dendroclimatologic techniques.
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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High alpine environments provide a variety of paleorecords based on physical (glaciers, glacio-lacustrine sedimentation) and biological systems (tree rings, tree-line fluctuations). These records have varying temporal resolution and contain different climate-related signals but, in concert, provide a more comprehensive reconstruction of past climates than is possible from any single archive.
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IEECAS SKLLQG
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© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.Sedimentological, ichnological and paleontological analyses of the Early Miocene uppermost Monte León Formation and the lower part of the Santa Cruz Formation were carried out in Rincón del Buque (RDB), a fossiliferous locality north of Río Coyle in Santa Cruz Province, Patagonia, Argentina. This locality is of special importance because it contains the basal contact between the Monte Léon (MLF) and the Santa Cruz (SCF) formations and because it preserves a rich fossil assemblage of marine invertebrates and marine trace fossils, and terrestrial vertebrates and plants, which has not been extensively studied. A ~90m-thick section of the MLF and the SCF that crops out at RDB was selected for this study. Eleven facies associations (FA) are described, which are, from base to top: subtidal-intertidal deposits with Crassotrea orbignyi and bioturbation of the Skolithos-Cruziana ichnofacies (FA1); tidal creek deposits with terrestrial fossil mammals and Ophiomorpha isp. burrows (FA2); tidal flat deposits with Glossifungites ichnofacies (FA3); deposits of tidal channels (FA4) and tidal sand flats (FA5) both with and impoverish Skolithos ichnofacies associated; marsh deposits (FA6); tidal point bar deposits recording a depauperate mixture of both the Skolithos and Cruziana ichnofacies (FA7); fluvial channel deposits (FA8); fluvial point bar deposits (FA9); floodplain deposits (FA10); and pyroclastic and volcaniclastic deposits of the floodplain where terrestrial fossil mammal remains occur (FA11).The transition of the MLF-SCF at RDB reflects a changing depositional environment from the outer part of an estuary (FA1) through the central (FA2-6) to inner part of a tide-dominated estuary (FA7). Finally a fluvial system occurs with single channels of relatively low energy and low sinuosity enclosed by a broad, low-energy floodplain dominated by partially edaphized ash-fall, sheet-flood, and overbank deposits (FA8-11). Pyroclastic and volcaniclastic materials throughout the succession must have been deposited as ash-fall distal facies in a fluvial setting and also were carried by fluvial streams and redeposited in both estuarine and fluvial settings. These materials preserve most of the analyzed terrestrial fossil mammals that characterize the Santacrucian age of the RDB's succession. Episodic sedimentation under volcanic influence, high sedimentation rates and a relatively warm and seasonal climate are inferred for the MLF and SCF section.Lateral continuity of the marker horizons at RDB serve for correlation with other coastal localities such as the lower part of the coastal SCF south of Río Coyle (~17.6-17.4Ma) belonging to the Estancia La Costa Member of the SCF.
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Reconstruction of hydroclimate variability is an important part of understanding natural climate change on decadal to millennial timescales. Peatland records reconstruct 'bog surface wetness' (BSW) changes, but it is unclear whether it is a relative dominance of precipitation or temperature that has driven these variations over Holocene timescales. Previously, correlations with instrumental climate data implied that precipitation is the dominant control. However, a recent chironomid inferred July temperature record suggested temperature changes were synchronous with BSW over the mid-late Holocene. This paper provides new analyses of these data to test competing hypotheses of climate controls on bog surface wetness and discusses some of the distal drivers of large-scale spatial patterns of BSW change. Using statistically based estimates of uncertainty in chronologies and proxy records, we show a correlation between Holocene summer temperature and BSW is plausible, but that chronologies are insufficiently precise to demonstrate this conclusively. Simulated summer moisture deficit changes for the last 6000 years forced by temperature alone are relatively small compared with observations over the 20th century. Instrumental records show that summer moisture deficit provides the best explanatory variable for measured water table changes and is more strongly correlated with precipitation than with temperature in both Estonia and the UK. We conclude that BSW is driven primarily by precipitation, reinforced by temperature, which is negatively correlated with precipitation and therefore usually forces summer moisture deficit in the same direction. In western Europe, BSW records are likely to be forced by changes in the strength and location of westerlies, linked to large-scale North Atlantic ocean and atmospheric circulation. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Multidisciplinary investigations of the infills of steeply-incised buried channels on the coast of Essex, England, provide important insights into late Middle Pleistocene climate and sea-level change and have a direct bearing on the differentiation of MIS 11 and MIS 9 in terrestrial records. New data are presented from Rochford and Burnham-on-Crouch where remnants of two substantial palaeo-channels filled with interglacial sediment can be directly related to the terrace stratigraphy of the Thames. The sediments in both channels accumulated in an estuarine environment early in an interglacial when mixed oak forest was becoming established. Lithological evidence suggests that the interglacial beds post-date the brackish-water infill of an older palaeo-channel ascribed to the Hoxnian and correlated with part of MIS 11, and pre-date terrace gravels (Barling Gravel) ascribed to MIS 8. An MIS 9 attribution is supported by molluscan biostratigraphy, palaeo-salinity and amino-acid racemization data. The relative sea-level record in this area thus includes evidence for two major marine transgressions during MIS 11 and MIS 9, with local maxima of >10 m O.D. Both are associated with sediments that show ‘Hoxnian’ palynological affinities. The wider significance of these findings, and of an intermediate phase of pronounced fluvial incision during MIS 10, is discussed.
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Tuning and stacking approaches have been used to compile non-annually resolved peatland palaeo-water table records in several studies. This approach has been proposed as a potential way forward to overcome the chronological problems that beset the correlation of records and may help in the upscaling of palaeoclimate records for climate model-data comparisons. This paper investigates the uncertainties in this approach using a published water table compilation from Northern Ireland. Firstly, three plausible combinations of chronological match points are used to assess the variability of the reconstructions. It is apparent that even with markedly different match point combinations, the compilations are highly similar, especially when a 100-year running mean line is used for interpretation. Secondly, sample-specific reconstruction errors are scaled in relation to the standardised water table units and illustrated on the compiled reconstruction. Thirdly, the total chronological errors for each reconstruction are calculated using Bayesian age-modelling software. Although tuning and stacking approaches may be suitable for compiling peat-based palaeoclimate records, it is important that the reconstruction and chronological errors are acknowledged and clearly illustrated in future studies. The tuning of peat-based proxy climate records is based on a potentially flawed assumption that events are synchronous between sites. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA.
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We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland. ©2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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1. Quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation distribution and abundance from sedimentary pollen records provides an important baseline for understanding long term ecosystem dynamics and for the calibration of earth system process models such as regional-scale climate models, widely used to predict future environmental change. Most current approaches assume that the amount of pollen produced by each vegetation type, usually expressed as a relative pollen productivity term, is constant in space and time.
2. Estimates of relative pollen productivity can be extracted from extended R-value analysis (Parsons and Prentice, 1981) using comparisons between pollen assemblages deposited into sedimentary contexts, such as moss polsters, and measurements of the present day vegetation cover around the sampled location. Vegetation survey method has been shown to have a profound effect on estimates of model parameters (Bunting and Hjelle, 2010), therefore a standard method is an essential pre-requisite for testing some of the key assumptions of pollen-based reconstruction of past vegetation; such as the assumption that relative pollen productivity is effectively constant in space and time within a region or biome.
3. This paper systematically reviews the assumptions and methodology underlying current models of pollen dispersal and deposition, and thereby identifies the key characteristics of an effective vegetation survey method for estimating relative pollen productivity in a range of landscape contexts.
4. It then presents the methodology used in a current research project, developed during a practitioner workshop. The method selected is pragmatic, designed to be replicable by different research groups, usable in a wide range of habitats, and requiring minimum effort to collect adequate data for model calibration rather than representing some ideal or required approach. Using this common methodology will allow project members to collect multiple measurements of relative pollen productivity for major plant taxa from several northern European locations in order to test the assumption of uniformity of these values within the climatic range of the main taxa recorded in pollen records from the region.
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The melting of high-latitude permafrost peatlands is a major concern due to a potential positive feedback on global climate change. We examine the ecology of testate amoebae in permafrost peatlands, based on sites in Sweden (~ 200 km north of the Arctic Circle). Multivariate statistical analysis confirms that water-table depth and moisture content are the dominant controls on the distribution of testate amoebae, corroborating the results from studies in mid-latitude peatlands. We present a new testate amoeba-based water table transfer function and thoroughly test it for the effects of spatial autocorrelation, clustered sampling design and uneven sampling gradients. We find that the transfer function has good predictive power; the best-performing model is based on tolerance-downweighted weighted averaging with inverse deshrinking (performance statistics with leave-one-out cross validation: R2 = 0.87, RMSEP = 5.25 cm). The new transfer function was applied to a short core from Stordalen mire, and reveals a major shift in peatland ecohydrology coincident with the onset of the Little Ice Age (c. AD 1400). We also applied the model to an independent contemporary dataset from Stordalen and find that it outperforms predictions based on other published transfer functions. The new transfer function will enable palaeohydrological reconstruction from permafrost peatlands in Northern Europe, thereby permitting greatly improved understanding of the long-term ecohydrological dynamics of these important carbon stores as well as their responses to recent climate change.
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Tropical peatlands represent globally important carbon sinks with a unique biodiversity and are currently threatened by climate change and human activities. It is now imperative that proxy methods are developed to understand the ecohydrological dynamics of these systems and for testing peatland development models. Testate amoebae have been used as environmental indicators in ecological and palaeoecological studies of peatlands, primarily in ombrotrophic Sphagnum-dominated peatlands in the mid- and high-latitudes. We present the first ecological analysis of testate amoebae in a tropical peatland, a nutrient-poor domed bog in western (Peruvian) Amazonia. Litter samples were collected from different hydrological microforms (hummock to pool) along a transect from the edge to the interior of the peatland. We recorded 47 taxa from 21 genera. The most common taxa are Cryptodifflugia oviformis, Euglypha rotunda type, Phryganella acropodia, Pseudodifflugia fulva type and Trinema lineare. One species found only in the southern hemisphere, Argynnia spicata, is present. Arcella spp., Centropyxis aculeata and Lesqueresia spiralis are indicators of pools containing standing water. Canonical correspondence analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling illustrate that water table depth is a significant control on the distribution of testate amoebae, similar to the results from mid- and high-latitude peatlands. A transfer function model for water table based on weighted averaging partial least-squares (WAPLS) regression is presented and performs well under cross-validation (r 2apparent=0.76,RMSE=4.29;r2jack=0.68,RMSEP=5.18. The transfer function was applied to a 1-m peat core, and sample-specific reconstruction errors were generated using bootstrapping. The reconstruction generally suggests near-surface water tables over the last 3,000 years, with a shift to drier conditions at c. cal. 1218-1273 AD