805 resultados para challenge hypothesis


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The Time magazine ‘Person of theYear’ award is a venerable institution. Established by Time’s founder Henry Luce in 1927 as ‘Man of the Year’, it is an annual award given to ‘a person, couple, group, idea, place, or machine that ‘for better or for worse ... has done the most to influence the events of the year’ (Time 2002, p. 1). In 2010, the award was given to Mark Zuckerberg, the founder and CEO of the social networking site Facebook.There was, however, a strong campaign for the ‘People’s Choice’ award to be given to Julian Assange, the founder and editor-in-chief of Wikileaks, the online whistleblowing site. Earlier in the year Wikileaks had released more than 250 000 US government diplomatic cables through the internet, and the subsequent controver- sies around the actions of Wikileaks and Assange came to be known worldwide as ‘Cablegate’. The focus of this chapter is not on the implications of ‘Cablegate’ for international diplomacy, which continue to have great significance, but rather upon what the emergence of Wikileaks has meant for journalism, and whether it provides insights into the future of journalism. Both Facebook and Wikileaks, as well as social media platforms such as Twitter and YouTube, and independent media practices such as blogging, citizen journalism and crowdsourcing, are manifestations of the rise of social media, or what has also been termed web 2.0.The term ‘web 2.0’ was coined by Tim O’Reilly, and captures the rise of online social media platforms and services, that better realise the collaborative potential of digitally networked media. They do this by moving from the relatively static, top-down notions of interactivity that informed early internet development, towards more open and evolutionary models that better harness collective intelligence by enabling users to become the creators and collaborators in the development of online media content (Musser and O’Reilly 2007; Bruns 2008).

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The use of the internet for political purposes is not new; however, the introduction of social media tools has opened new avenues for political activists. In an era where social media has been credited as playing a critical role in the success of revolutions (Earl & Kimport, 2011; Papic & Noonan, 2011; Wooley, Limperos & 10 Beth, 2010), governments, law enforcement and intelligence agencies need to develop a deeper understanding of the broader capabilities of this emerging social and political environment. This can be achieved by increasing their online presence and through the application of proactive social media strategies to identify and manage potential threats. Analysis of current literature shows a gap 15 in the research regarding the connection between the theoretical understanding and practical implications of social media when exploited by political activists,and the efficacy of existing strategies designed to manage this growing challenge. This paper explores these issues by looking specifically at the use of three popular social media tools: Facebook; Twitter; and YouTube. Through the examination of 20 recent political protests in Iran, the UK and Egypt from 2009�2011, these case studies and research in the use of the three social media tools by political groups, the authors discuss inherent weaknesses in online political movements and discuss strategies for law enforcement and intelligence agencies to monitor these activities.

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We report three developments toward resolving the challenge of the apparent basal polytomy of neoavian birds. First, we describe improved conditional down-weighting techniques to reduce noise relative to signal for deeper divergences and find increased agreement between data sets. Second, we present formulae for calculating the probabilities of finding predefined groupings in the optimal tree. Finally, we report a significant increase in data: nine new mitochondrial (mt) genomes (the dollarbird, New Zealand kingfisher, great potoo, Australian owlet-nightjar, white-tailed trogon, barn owl, a roadrunner [a ground cuckoo], New Zealand long-tailed cuckoo, and the peach-faced lovebird) and together they provide data for each of the six main groups of Neoaves proposed by Cracraft J (2001). We use his six main groups of modern birds as priors for evaluation of results. These include passerines, cuckoos, parrots, and three other groups termed “WoodKing” (woodpeckers/rollers/kingfishers), “SCA” (owls/potoos/owlet-nightjars/hummingbirds/swifts), and “Conglomerati.” In general, the support is highly significant with just two exceptions, the owls move from the “SCA” group to the raptors, particularly accipitrids (buzzards/eagles) and the osprey, and the shorebirds may be an independent group from the rest of the “Conglomerati”. Molecular dating mt genomes support a major diversification of at least 12 neoavian lineages in the Late Cretaceous. Our results form a basis for further testing with both nuclear-coding sequences and rare genomic changes.

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The opening phrase of the title is from Charles Darwin’s notebooks (Schweber 1977). It is a double reminder, firstly that mainstream evolutionary theory is not just about describing nature but is particularly looking for mechanisms or ‘causes’, and secondly, that there will usually be several causes affecting any particular outcome. The second part of the title is our concern at the almost universal rejection of the idea that biological mechanisms are sufficient for macroevolutionary changes, thus rejecting a cornerstone of Darwinian evolutionary theory. Our primary aim here is to consider ways of making it easier to develop and to test hypotheses about evolution. Formalizing hypotheses can help generate tests. In an absolute sense, some of the discussion by scientists about evolution is little better than the lack of reasoning used by those advocating intelligent design. Our discussion here is in a Popperian framework where science is defined by that area of study where it is possible, in principle, to find evidence against hypotheses – they are in principle falsifiable. However, with time, the boundaries of science keep expanding. In the past, some aspects of evolution were outside the current boundaries of falsifiable science, but increasingly new techniques and ideas are expanding the boundaries of science and it is appropriate to re-examine some topics. It often appears that over the last few decades there has been an increasingly strong assumption to look first (and only) for a physical cause. This decision is virtually never formally discussed, just an assumption is made that some physical factor ‘drives’ evolution. It is necessary to examine our assumptions much more carefully. What is meant by physical factors ‘driving’ evolution, or what is an ‘explosive radiation’. Our discussion focuses on two of the six mass extinctions, the fifth being events in the Late Cretaceous, and the sixth starting at least 50,000 years ago (and is ongoing). Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary; the rise of birds and mammals. We have had a long-term interest (Cooper and Penny 1997) in designing tests to help evaluate whether the processes of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution. The real challenge is to formulate hypotheses in a testable way. For example the numbers of lineages of birds and mammals that survive from the Cretaceous to the present is one test. Our first estimate was 22 for birds, and current work is tending to increase this value. This still does not consider lineages that survived into the Tertiary, and then went extinct later. Our initial suggestion was probably too narrow in that it lumped four models from Penny and Phillips (2004) into one model. This reduction is too simplistic in that we need to know about survival and ecological and morphological divergences during the Late Cretaceous, and whether Crown groups of avian or mammalian orders may have existed back into the Cretaceous. More recently (Penny and Phillips 2004) we have formalized hypotheses about dinosaurs and pterosaurs, with the prediction that interactions between mammals (and groundfeeding birds) and dinosaurs would be most likely to affect the smallest dinosaurs, and similarly interactions between birds and pterosaurs would particularly affect the smaller pterosaurs. There is now evidence for both classes of interactions, with the smallest dinosaurs and pterosaurs declining first, as predicted. Thus, testable models are now possible. Mass extinction number six: human impacts. On a broad scale, there is a good correlation between time of human arrival, and increased extinctions (Hurles et al. 2003; Martin 2005; Figure 1). However, it is necessary to distinguish different time scales (Penny 2005) and on a finer scale there are still large numbers of possibilities. In Hurles et al. (2003) we mentioned habitat modification (including the use of Geogenes III July 2006 31 fire), introduced plants and animals (including kiore) in addition to direct predation (the ‘overkill’ hypothesis). We need also to consider prey switching that occurs in early human societies, as evidenced by the results of Wragg (1995) on the middens of different ages on Henderson Island in the Pitcairn group. In addition, the presence of human-wary or humanadapted animals will affect the distribution in the subfossil record. A better understanding of human impacts world-wide, in conjunction with pre-scientific knowledge will make it easier to discuss the issues by removing ‘blame’. While continued spontaneous generation was accepted universally, there was the expectation that animals continued to reappear. New Zealand is one of the very best locations in the world to study many of these issues. Apart from the marine fossil record, some human impact events are extremely recent and the remains less disrupted by time.

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We have always felt that “something very special” was happening in the 48hr and other similar game jams. This “something” is more than the intensity and challenge of the experience, although this certainly has appeal for the participants. We had an intuition that these intense 48 hour game jams exposed something pertinent to the changing shape of the Australian games industry where we see the demise of the late 20th century large studio - the “Night Elf” model and the growth of the small independent model. There are a large number of wider economic and cultural factors around this evolution but our interest is specifically in the change from “industry” to “creative industry” and the growth of games as a cultural media and art practice. If we are correct in our intuition, then illuminating this something also has important ramifications for those courses which teach game and interaction design and development. Rather than undertake a formal ethno-methodological approach, we decided to track as many of the actors in the event as possible. We documented the experience (Keith Novak’s beautiful B&W photography), the individual and their technology (IOGraph mouse tracking), the teams as a group (Time lapse photography) and movement tracking throughout the whole space (Blue tooth phone tracking). The raw data collected has given us opportunity to start a commentary on the “something special” happening in the 48hr.

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There is an increased interested in Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle (UAV) operations and research into advanced methods for commanding and controlling multiple heterogeneous UAVs. Research into areas of supervisory control has rapidly increased. Past research has investigated various approaches of autonomous control and operator limitation to improve mission commanders' Situation Awareness (SA) and cognitive workload. The aim of this paper is to address this challenge through a visualisation framework of UAV information constructed from Information Abstraction (IA). This paper presents the concept and process of IA, and the visualisation framework (constructed using IA), the concept associated with the Level Of Detail (LOD) indexing method, the visualisation of an example of the framework. Experiments will test the hypothesis that, the operator will be able to achieve increased SA and reduced cognitive load with the proposed framework.

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Background Bactrocera dorsalis s.s. is a pestiferous tephritid fruit fly distributed from Pakistan to the Pacific, with the Thai/Malay peninsula its southern limit. Sister pest taxa, B. papayae and B. philippinensis, occur in the southeast Asian archipelago and the Philippines, respectively. The relationship among these species is unclear due to their high molecular and morphological similarity. This study analysed population structure of these three species within a southeast Asian biogeographical context to assess potential dispersal patterns and the validity of their current taxonomic status. Results Geometric morphometric results generated from 15 landmarks for wings of 169 flies revealed significant differences in wing shape between almost all sites following canonical variate analysis. For the combined data set there was a greater isolation-by-distance (IBD) effect under a ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario which used geographical distances within a biogeographical ‘Sundaland context’ (r2 = 0.772, P < 0.0001) as compared to a ‘Euclidean’ scenario for which direct geographic distances between sample sites was used (r2 = 0.217, P < 0.01). COI sequence data were obtained for 156 individuals and yielded 83 unique haplotypes with no correlation to current taxonomic designations via a minimum spanning network. BEAST analysis provided a root age and location of 540kya in northern Thailand, with migration of B. dorsalis s.l. into Malaysia 470kya and Sumatra 270kya. Two migration events into the Philippines are inferred. Sequence data revealed a weak but significant IBD effect under the ‘non-Euclidean’ scenario (r2 = 0.110, P < 0.05), with no historical migration evident between Taiwan and the Philippines. Results are consistent with those expected at the intra-specific level. Conclusions Bactrocera dorsalis s.s., B. papayae and B. philippinensis likely represent one species structured around the South China Sea, having migrated from northern Thailand into the southeast Asian archipelago and across into the Philippines. No migration is apparent between the Philippines and Taiwan. This information has implications for quarantine, trade and pest management.

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In their recent review of prior studies examining firm performance, Klapper and Parker (2010, p.7) conclude that “women entrepreneurs tend to underperform relative to their male counterparts.” However, Robb and Watson (2011) argue that much of this prior research is based on inappropriate performance measures and/or does not adequately control (due to data limitations) for important demographic differences. Given the conflicting findings reported in the literature, the aim of this study is to replicate the study by Robb and Watson (2011) to see if their findings can be generalized to another geographical location. Our results, based on an analysis of 209 female-owned and 263 male-owned young Australian firms, confirm those of Robb and Watson (2011). We believe that this outcome should help dispel the female underperformance myth; which if left unchallenged could result in inappropriate policy decisions and, more importantly, could discourage women from establishing new ventures.

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This paper provides an analysis of why many ‘stars’ tend to fade away rather than enjoying ongoing branding advantages from their reputations. We propose a theory of market overshooting in creative industries that is based on Schumpeterian competition between producers to maintain the interest of boundedly rational fans. As creative producers compete by offering further artistic novelty, this escalation of product complexity eventually leads to overshooting. We propose this as a theory of endogenous cycles in the creative industries.

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The native cottontail rabbit papillomavirus (CRPV) L1 capsid protein gene was expressed transgenically via Agrobacterium tumefaciens transformation and transiently via a tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) vector in Nicotiana spp. L1 protein was detected in concentrated plant extracts at concentrations up to 1.0 mg/kg in transgenic plants and up to 0.4 mg/kg in TMV-infected plants. The protein did not detectably assemble into viruslike particles; however, immunoelectron microscopy showed presumptive pentamer aggregates, and extracted protein reacted with conformation-specific and neutralizing monoclonal antibodies. Rabbits were injected with concentrated protein extract with Freund's incomplete adjuvant. All sera reacted with baculovirus-produced CRPV L1; however, they did not detectably neutralize infectivity in an in vitro assay. Vaccinated rabbits were, however, protected against wart development on subsequent challenge with live virus. This is the first evidence that a plant-derived papillomavirus vaccine is protective in an animal model and is a proof of concept for human papillomavirus vaccines produced in plants. Copyright © 2006, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

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The chapter is a "here and now" narration in the first person as witnessed and experienced by the author during field work in the Galapagos Islands in 1976-79. The story begins on the most remote volcanic island of Fernandina where the breeding biology of Flightless cormorants was being studied. A small selection of the many potentially life threatening situations and challenges is described including stories related to the birth of their son.