Filtering via approximate Bayesian computation

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular technique to facilitate Bayesian inference from complex models. In this article we present an ABC approximation designed to perform biased filtering for a Hidden Markov Model when the likelihood function is intractable. We use a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to both fit and sample from our ABC approximation of the target probability density. This approach is shown to, empirically, be more accurate w.r.t.~the original filter than competing methods. The theoretical bias of our method is investigated; it is shown that the bias goes to zero at the expense of increased computational effort. Our approach is illustrated on a constrained sequential lasso for portfolio allocation to 15 constituents of the FTSE 100 share index.

An Approximate Method For Calculation Of Fluid Force And Response Of A Circular Cylinder At Lock-In

In this paper, equations calculating lift force of a rigid circular cyclinder at lock-in uniform flow are deduced in detail. Besides, equations calculating the lift force on a long flexible circular cyclinder at lock-in are deduced based on mode analysis of a multi-degree freedom system. The simplified forms of these equations are also given. Furthermore, an approximate method to predict the forces and response of rigid circular cyclinders and long flexible circular cyclinders at lock-in is introduced in the case of low mass-damping ratio. A method to eliminate one deficiency of these equations is introduced. Comparison with experimental results show the effectiveness of this approximate method.

An approximate likelihood method for estimating static parameters in multi-target tracking models

This paper considers a class of dynamic Spatial Point Processes (PP) that evolves over time in a Markovian fashion. This Markov in time PP is hidden and observed indirectly through another PP via thinning, displacement and noise. This statistical model is important for Multi object Tracking applications and we present an approximate likelihood based method for estimating the model parameters. The work is supported by an extensive numerical study.

Approximate theory of natural-convection with small grashof number

To gain some insight into the behaviour of low-gravity flows in the material processing in space, an approximate theory has been developed for the convective motion of fluids with a small Grashof number Gr. The expansion of the variables into a series of Gr reduces the Boussinesq equation to a system of weakly coupled linearly inhomogeneous equations. Moreover, the analogy concept is proposed and utilized in the study of the plate bending problems in solid mechanics. Two examples are investigated in detail, i. e. the 2-dimensional steady flows in either circular or square infinite closed cylinder, which is horizontally imposed at a specified temperature of linear distribution on the boundaries. The results for stream function ψ, velocity u and temperature T are provided. The analysis of the influences of some parameters such as the Grashof number Gr and the Prandtl number Pr, on motions will lead to several interesting conclusions. The theory seems to be useful for seeking for an analytical solutions. At least, it will greatly simplify the complicated problems originally governed by the Navier-Stokes equation including buoyancy. It is our hope that the theory might be applicable to unsteady or 3-dimensional cases in future.

Approximate knowledge of rationality and correlated equilibria

We extend Aumann's [3] theorem deriving correlated equilibria as a consequence of common priors and common knowledge of rationality by explicitly allowing for non-rational behavior. We replace the assumption of common knowledge of rationality with a substantially weaker notion, joint p-belief of rationality, where agents believe the other agents are rational with probabilities p = (pi)i2I or more. We show that behavior in this case constitutes a constrained correlated equilibrium of a doubled game satisfying certain p-belief constraints and characterize the topological structure of the resulting set of p-rational outcomes. We establish continuity in the parameters p and show that, for p su ciently close to one, the p-rational outcomes are close to the correlated equilibria and, with high probability, supported on strategies that survive the iterated elimination of strictly dominated strategies. Finally, we extend Aumann and Dreze's [4] theorem on rational expectations of interim types to the broader p-rational belief systems, and also discuss the case of non-common priors.

Some approximate solutions of dynamic problems in the linear theory of thin elastic shells

Some aspects of wave propagation in thin elastic shells are considered. The governing equations are derived by a method which makes their relationship to the exact equations of linear elasticity quite clear. Finite wave propagation speeds are ensured by the inclusion of the appropriate physical effects.

The problem of a constant pressure front moving with constant velocity along a semi-infinite circular cylindrical shell is studied. The behavior of the solution immediately under the leading wave is found, as well as the short time solution behind the characteristic wavefronts. The main long time disturbance is found to travel with the velocity of very long longitudinal waves in a bar and an expression for this part of the solution is given.

When a constant moment is applied to the lip of an open spherical shell, there is an interesting effect due to the focusing of the waves. This phenomenon is studied and an expression is derived for the wavefront behavior for the first passage of the leading wave and its first reflection.

For the two problems mentioned, the method used involves reducing the governing partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations by means of a Laplace transform in time. The information sought is then extracted by doing the appropriate asymptotic expansion with the Laplace variable as parameter.