Climate Change and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean. Overview 2009

Includes bibliography

Anthropogenic influences on Cd, Cr,Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn concentrations in soils and sediments in a watershed with sugar cane crops at São Paulo State, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The economics of climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paradoxes and challenges. Overview for 2014

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena.

Anthropogenic edges, isolation and the flowering time and fruit set of Anadenanthera peregrina, a cerrado savanna tree

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Natural and anthropogenic influence on soil erosion in a rural watershed in the Brazilian southeastern region

Human activities have been driven land cover, provoking acceleration of the erosive process and alteration on the soil characteristics. To explore the effects of human disturbance, we investigated the influences of natural and anthropogenic features on soil quality and soil erosion indicators (EI) within a Brazilian rural watershed located in Bauru Municipality, State of So Paulo. A pre-established set of soil EI was used to evaluate the influence of anthropogenic land cover categories on the presence and severity of erosion, related with spatial variations of soil attributes. On-site visits were carried out to measure the occurrence and the intensity of eleven separate EI values and to collect undisturbed topsoil samples for subsequent analyses. We registered 17 occurrences of EIs, distributed in ten locals. Occurrence and intensity of EIs were related to degree of sheet erosion. The EI qualities were more strongly associated with land cover management practices than to local topographic features. The occurrence of EIs and characteristics of soil and soil organic matter (SOM) were not significantly self-correlated. Although land cover class seems to influence soil properties and SOM attributes, we observed that the granulometric composition of the soils also contributes to the structural characteristics of the soil and consequently to the dynamic loss and gain of soil carbon. Sites covered with natural remnant vegetation (NRV) store 96.5 Mg ha(-1) of C and grassy and tilled soils stored more C than NRV, 100.1 and 142.4 Mg ha(-1), respectively. Due to the influence of soil texture over the soil C dynamic, we observe that in Bauru, pastured areas have high potential for sequestration of C if factors such as fire and/or erosion were avoided or effectively controlled. Results from this study show that human disturbance substantially affects soil properties within of southeastern region of Brazil.

Anthropogenic CO2 in the Azores region

The AZORES-I cruise was conducted in August 1998, spanning the length of three latitudinal large-scale sections at 22, 28 and 32ºW. The oceanic carbon system was oversampled by measuring total alkalinity, total inorganic carbon and pH. It is thus possible to estimate anthropogenic CO2 (CANT) and to investigate its relationship with the main water masses that are present. CANT is calculated using the latest back-calculation techniques: jCTº and TrOCA methods. Although the two approaches produce similar vertical distributions, the results of the TrOCA method show higher CANT variability and produce higher inventories than those of the jCTº method. The large proportion of Mediterranean Water found in the northern part of the study area is the main cause of the observed increase northwards of CANT inventories. Changes in CANT inventories between 1981 and 2004 are evaluated using data from the TTO-NAS, OACES-93 and METEOR-60/5 cruises. According to the jCTº and TrOCA approaches, the average long-term rates of CANT inventory change are 1.32±0.11 mol C m-2 y-1 (P=0.008) and 1.18±0.16 mol C m-2 y-1 (P=0.018), respectively. During the 1993-1998 a significant increase in the CANT storage rate was detected by the jCTº method. It is thought that this stems directly from the enhanced Labrador Seawater formation after the increased advection observed at the time.

Natural patterns and anthropogenic disturbance in north Adriatic marine benthic assemblages: descriptive and methodological studies

Marine soft bottom systems show a high variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Both natural and anthropogenic sources of disturbance act together in affecting benthic sedimentary characteristics and species distribution. The description of such spatial variability is required to understand the ecological processes behind them. However, in order to have a better estimate of spatial patterns, methods that take into account the complexity of the sedimentary system are required. This PhD thesis aims to give a significant contribution both in improving the methodological approaches to the study of biological variability in soft bottom habitats and in increasing the knowledge of the effect that different process (both natural and anthropogenic) could have on the benthic communities of a large area in the North Adriatic Sea. Beta diversity is a measure of the variability in species composition, and Whittaker’s index has become the most widely used measure of beta-diversity. However, application of the Whittaker index to soft bottom assemblages of the Adriatic Sea highlighted its sensitivity to rare species (species recorded in a single sample). This over-weighting of rare species induces biased estimates of the heterogeneity, thus it becomes difficult to compare assemblages containing a high proportion of rare species. In benthic communities, the unusual large number of rare species is frequently attributed to a combination of sampling errors and insufficient sampling effort. In order to reduce the influence of rare species on the measure of beta diversity, I have developed an alternative index based on simple probabilistic considerations. It turns out that this probability index is an ordinary Michaelis-Menten transformation of Whittaker's index but behaves more favourably when species heterogeneity increases. The suggested index therefore seems appropriate when comparing patterns of complexity in marine benthic assemblages. Although the new index makes an important contribution to the study of biodiversity in sedimentary environment, it remains to be seen which processes, and at what scales, influence benthic patterns. The ability to predict the effects of ecological phenomena on benthic fauna highly depends on both spatial and temporal scales of variation. Once defined, implicitly or explicitly, these scales influence the questions asked, the methodological approaches and the interpretation of results. Problem often arise when representative samples are not taken and results are over-generalized, as can happen when results from small-scale experiments are used for resource planning and management. Such issues, although globally recognized, are far from been resolved in the North Adriatic Sea. This area is potentially affected by both natural (e.g. river inflow, eutrophication) and anthropogenic (e.g. gas extraction, fish-trawling) sources of disturbance. Although few studies in this area aimed at understanding which of these processes mainly affect macrobenthos, these have been conducted at a small spatial scale, as they were designated to examine local changes in benthic communities or particular species. However, in order to better describe all the putative processes occurring in the entire area, a high sampling effort performed at a large spatial scale is required. The sedimentary environment of the western part of the Adriatic Sea was extensively studied in this thesis. I have described, in detail, spatial patterns both in terms of sedimentary characteristics and macrobenthic organisms and have suggested putative processes (natural or of human origin) that might affect the benthic environment of the entire area. In particular I have examined the effect of off shore gas platforms on benthic diversity and tested their effect over a background of natural spatial variability. The results obtained suggest that natural processes in the North Adriatic such as river outflow and euthrophication show an inter-annual variability that might have important consequences on benthic assemblages, affecting for example their spatial pattern moving away from the coast and along a North to South gradient. Depth-related factors, such as food supply, light, temperature and salinity play an important role in explaining large scale benthic spatial variability (i.e., affecting both the abundance patterns and beta diversity). Nonetheless, more locally, effects probably related to an organic enrichment or pollution from Po river input has been observed. All these processes, together with few human-induced sources of variability (e.g. fishing disturbance), have a higher effect on macrofauna distribution than any effect related to the presence of gas platforms. The main effect of gas platforms is restricted mainly to small spatial scales and related to a change in habitat complexity due to a natural dislodgement or structure cleaning of mussels that colonize their legs. The accumulation of mussels on the sediment reasonably affects benthic infauna composition. All the components of the study presented in this thesis highlight the need to carefully consider methodological aspects related to the study of sedimentary habitats. With particular regards to the North Adriatic Sea, a multi-scale analysis along natural and anthopogenic gradients was useful for detecting the influence of all the processes affecting the sedimentary environment. In the future, applying a similar approach may lead to an unambiguous assessment of the state of the benthic community in the North Adriatic Sea. Such assessment may be useful in understanding if any anthropogenic source of disturbance has a negative effect on the marine environment, and if so, planning sustainable strategies for a proper management of the affected area.

Laboratory and field measurements of enantiomeric and non-enantiomeric biogenic VOCs and anthropogenic BTEX compounds

This doctoral thesis was focused on the investigation of enantiomeric and non-enantiomeric biogenic organic compound (BVOC) emissions from both leaf and canopy scales in different environments. In addition, the anthropogenic compounds benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) were studied. BVOCs are emitted into the lower troposphere in large quantities (ca. 1150 Tg C ·yr-1), approximately an order of magnitude greater than the anthropogenic VOCs. BVOCs are particularly important in tropospheric chemistry because of their impact on ozone production and secondary organic aerosol formation or growth. The BVOCs examined in this study were: isoprene, (-)/ (+)-α-pinene, (-)/ (+)-ß-pinene, Δ-3-carene, (-)/ (+)-limonene, myrcene, eucalyptol and camphor, as these were the most abundant BVOCs observed both in the leaf cuvette study and the ambient measurements. In the laboratory cuvette studies, the sensitivity of enantiomeric enrichment change from the leaf emission has been examined as a function of light (0-1600 PAR) and temperature (20-45°C). Three typical Mediterranean plant species (Quercus ilex L., Rosmarinus officinalis L., Pinus halepensis Mill.) with more than three individuals of each have been investigated using a dynamic enclosure cuvette. The terpenoid compound emission rates were found to be directly linked to either light and temperature (e.g. Quercus ilex L.) or mainly to temperature (e.g. Rosmarinus officinalis L., Pinus halepensis Mill.). However, the enantiomeric signature showed no clear trend in response to either the light or temperature; moreover a large variation of enantiomeric enrichment was found during the experiment. This enantiomeric signature was also used to distinguish chemotypes beyond the normal achiral chemical composition method. The results of nineteen Quercus ilex L. individuals, screened under standard conditions (30°C and 1000 PAR) showed four different chemotypes, whereas the traditional classification showed only two. An enclosure branch cuvette set-up was applied in the natural boreal forest environment from four chemotypes of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and one chemotype of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and the direct emissions compared with ambient air measurements above the canopy during the HUMPPA-COPEC 2010 summer campaign. The chirality of a-pinene was dominated by (+)-enantiomers from Scots pine while for Norway spruce the chirality was found to be opposite (i.e. Abstract II (-)-enantiomer enriched) becoming increasingly enriched in the (-)-enantiomer with light. Field measurements over a Spanish stone pine forest were performed to examine the extent of seasonal changes in enantiomeric enrichment (DOMINO 2008). These showed clear differences in chirality of monoterpene emissions. In wintertime the monoterpene (-)-a-pinene was found to be in slight enantiomeric excess over (+)-a-pinene at night but by day the measured ratio was closer to one i.e. racemic. Samples taken the following summer in the same location showed much higher monoterpene mixing ratios and revealed a strong enantiomeric excess of (-)-a-pinene. This indicated a strong seasonal variance in the enantiomeric emission ratio which was not manifested in the day/night temperature cycles in wintertime. A clear diurnal cycle of enantiomeric enrichment in a-pinene was also found over a French oak forest and the boreal forest. However, while in the boreal forest (-)-a-pinene enrichment increased around the time of maximum light and temperature, the French forest showed the opposite tendency with (+)-a-pinene being favored. For the two field campaigns (DOMINO 2008 and HUMPPA-COPEC 2010), the BTEX were also investigated. For the DOMINO campaign, mixing ratios of the xylene isomers (meta- and para-) and ethylbenzene, which are all well resolved on the ß-cyclodextrin column, were exploited to estimate average OH radical exposures to VOCs from the Huelva industrial area. These were compared to empirical estimates of OH based on JNO2 measured at the site. The deficiencies of each estimation method are discussed. For HUMPPA-COPEC campaign, benzene and toluene mixing ratios can clearly define the air mass influenced by the biomass burning pollution plume from Russia.

INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF ANTHROPOGENIC, CLIMATE, AND POLICY INDUCED CHANGES OF PHOSPHORUS EXPORT IN THE UNITED STATES LAURENTIAN GREAT LAKES WATERSHEDS

Anthropogenic activities have increased phosphorus (P) loading in tributaries to the Laurentian Great Lakes resulting in eutrophication in small bays to most notably, Lake Erie. Changes to surface water quality from P loading have resulted in billions of dollars in damage and threaten the health of the world’s largest freshwater resource. To understand the factors affecting P delivery with projected increasing urban lands and biofuels expansion, two spatially explicit models were coupled. The coupled models predict that the majority of the basin will experience a significant increase in urban area P sources while the agriculture intensity and forest sources of P will decrease. Changes in P loading across the basin will be highly variable spatially. Additionally, the impacts of climate change on high precipitation events across the Great Lakes were examined. Using historical regression relationships on phosphorus concentrations, key Great Lakes tributaries were found to have future changes including decreasing total loads and increases to high-flow loading events. The urbanized Cuyahoga watersheds exhibits the most vulnerability to these climate-induced changes with increases in total loading and storm loading , while the forested Au Sable watershed exhibits greater resilience. Finally, the monitoring network currently in place for sampling the amount of phosphorus entering the U.S. Great Lakes was examined with a focus on the challenges to monitoring. Based on these interviews, the research identified three issues that policy makers interested in maintaining an effective phosphorus monitoring network in the Great Lakes should consider: first, that the policy objectives driving different monitoring programs vary, which results in different patterns of sampling design and frequency; second, that these differences complicate efforts to encourage collaboration; and third, that methods of funding sampling programs vary from agency to agency, further complicating efforts to generate sufficient long-term data to improve our understanding of phosphorus into the Great Lakes. The dissertation combines these three areas of research to present the potential future impacts of P loading in the Great Lakes as anthropogenic activities, climate and monitoring changes. These manuscripts report new experimental data for future sources, loading and climate impacts on phosphorus.

IMPACT OF 2000-2050 CLIMATE CHANGE ON GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT AND DEPOSITION OF MERCURY

Since it is very toxic and accumulates in organisms, particularly in fish, mercury is a very important pollutant and one of the most studies. And this concern over the toxicity and human health risks of mercury has prompted efforts to regulate anthropogenic emissions. As mercury pollution problem is getting increasingly serious, we are curious about how serious this problem will be in the future. What is more, how the climate change in the future will affect the mercury concentration in the atmosphere. So we investigate the impact of climate change on mercury concentration in the atmosphere. We focus on the comparison between the mercury data for year 2000 and for year 2050. The GEOS-Chem model shows that the mercury concentrations for all tracers (1 to 3), elemental mercury (Hg(0)), divalent mercury (Hg(II)) and primary particulate mercury (Hg(P)) have differences between 2000 and 2050 in most regions over the world. From the model results, we can see the climate change from 2000 to 2050 would decrease Hg(0) surface concentration in most of the world. The driving factors of Hg(0) surface concentration changes are natural emissions(ocean and vegetation) and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). The climate change from 2000 to 2050 would increase Hg(II) surface concentration in most of mid-latitude continental parts of the world while decreasing Hg(II) surface concentration in most of high-latitude part of the world. The driving factors of Hg(II) surface concentration changes is deposition amount change (majorly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050 and the transformation reactions between Hg(0) and Hg(II). Climate change would increase Hg(P) concentration in most of mid-latitude area of the world and meanwhile decrease Hg(P) concentration in most of high-latitude regions of the world. For the Hg(P) concentration changes, the major driving factor is the deposition amount change (mainly wet deposition) from 2000 to 2050.

Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review

Over recent decades, palaeolimnological records from remote sites have provided convincing evidence for the onset and development of several facets of global environmental change. Remote lakes, defined here as those occurring in high latitude or high altitude regions, have the advantage of not being overprinted by local anthropogenic processes. As such, many of these sites record broad-scale environmental changes, frequently driven by regime shifts in the Earth system. Here, we review a selection of studies from North America and Europe and discuss their broader implications. The history of investigation has evolved synchronously with the scope and awareness of environmental problems. An initial focus on acid deposition switched to metal and other types of pollutants, then climate change and eventually to atmospheric deposition-fertilising effects. However, none of these topics is independent of the other, and all of them affect ecosystem function and biodiversity in profound ways. Currently, remote lake palaeolimnology is developing unique datasets for each region investigated that benchmark current trends with respect to past, purely natural variability in lake systems. Fostering conceptual and methodological bridges with other environmental disciplines will upturn contribution of remote lake palaeolimnology in solving existing and emerging questions in global change science and planetary stewardship.

The nitrogen cycle of tropical montane forest in Ecuador turns inorganic under environmental change

Water-bound nitrogen (N) cycling in temperate terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere is today mainly inorganic because of anthropogenic release of reactive N to the environment. In little-industrialized and remote areas, in contrast, a larger part of N cycling occurs as dissolved organic N (DON). In a north Andean tropical montane forest in Ecuador, the N cycle changed markedly during 1998–2010 along with increasing N deposition and reduced soil moisture. The DON concentrations and the fractional contribution of DON to total N significantly decreased in rainfall, throughfall, and soil solutions. This inorganic turn of the N cycle was most pronounced in rainfall and became weaker along the flow path of water through the system until it disappeared in stream water. Decreasing organic contributions to N cycling were caused not only by increasing inorganic N input but also by reduced DON production and/or enhanced DON decomposition. Accelerated DON decomposition might be attributable to less waterlogging and higher nutrient availability. Significantly increasing NO3-N concentrations and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios in throughfall and litter leachate below the thick organic layers indicated increasing nitrification. In mineral soil solutions, in contrast, NH4-N concentrations increased and NO3-N/NH4-N concentration ratios decreased significantly, suggesting increasing net ammonification. Our results demonstrate that the remote tropical montane forests on the rim of the Amazon basin experienced a pronounced change of the N cycle in only one decade. This change likely parallels a similar change which followed industrialization in the temperate zone of the Northern Hemisphere more than a century ago.

Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy

Adding to the on-going debate regarding vegetation recolonisation (more particularly the timing) in Europe and climate change since the Lateglacial, this study investigates a long sediment core (LL081) from Lake Ledro (652ma.s.l., southern Alps, Italy). Environmental changes were reconstructed using multiproxy analysis (pollen-based vegetation and climate reconstruction, lake levels, magnetic susceptibility and X-ray fluorescence (XRF) measurements) recorded climate and land-use changes during the Lateglacial and early-middle Holocene. The well-dated and high-resolution pollen record of Lake Ledro is compared with vegetation records from the southern and northern Alps to trace the history of tree species distribution. An altitudedependent progressive time delay of the first continuous occurrence of Abies (fir) and of the Larix (larch) development has been observed since the Lateglacial in the southern Alps. This pattern suggests that the mid-altitude Lake Ledro area was not a refuge and that trees originated from lowlands or hilly areas (e.g. Euganean Hills) in northern Italy. Preboreal oscillations (ca. 11 000 cal BP), Boreal oscillations (ca. 10 200, 9300 cal BP) and the 8.2 kyr cold event suggest a centennial-scale climate forcing in the studied area. Picea (spruce) expansion occurred preferentially around 10 200 and 8200 cal BP in the south-eastern Alps, and therefore reflects the long-lasting cumulative effects of successive boreal and the 8.2 kyr cold event. The extension of Abies is contemporaneous with the 8.2 kyr event, but its development in the southern Alps benefits from the wettest interval 8200-7300 cal BP evidenced in high lake levels, flood activity and pollen-based climate reconstructions. Since ca. 7500 cal BP, a weak signal of pollen-based anthropogenic activities suggest weak human impact. The period between ca. 5700 and ca. 4100 cal BP is considered as a transition period to colder and wetter conditions (particularly during summers) that favoured a dense beech (Fagus) forest development which in return caused a distinctive yew (Taxus) decline.We conclude that climate was the dominant factor controlling vegetation changes and erosion processes during the early and middle Holocene (up to ca. 4100 cal BP).

Ecosystem services, biodiversity and environmental change in a tropical mountain ecosystem of south Ecuador

An interdisciplinary research unit consisting of 30 teams in the natural, economic and social sciences analyzed biodiversity and ecosystem services of a mountain rainforest ecosystem in the hotspot of the tropical Andes, with special reference to past, current and future environmental changes. The group assessed ecosystem services using data from ecological field and scenario-driven model experiments, and with the help of comparative field surveys of the natural forest and its anthropogenic replacement system for agriculture. The book offers insights into the impacts of environmental change on various service categories mentioned in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005): cultural, regulating, supporting and provisioning ecosystem services. Examples focus on biodiversity of plants and animals including trophic networks, and abiotic/biotic parameters such as soils, regional climate, water, nutrient and sediment cycles. The types of threats considered include land use and climate changes, as well as atmospheric fertilization. In terms of regulating and provisioning services, the emphasis is primarily on water regulation and supply as well as climate regulation and carbon sequestration. With regard to provisioning services, the synthesis of the book provides science-based recommendations for a sustainable land use portfolio including several options such as forestry, pasture management and the practices of indigenous peoples. In closing, the authors show how they integrated the local society by pursuing capacity building in compliance with the CBD-ABS (Convention on Biological Diversity - Access and Benefit Sharing), in the form of education and knowledge transfer for application.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to 1) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories and 2) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human time scales. All commitment simulations follow the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to year 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near-preindustrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6-6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5-8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to preindustrial levels over 100-1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to preindustrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2.