Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

TUNPOP: A simulation of the dynamics and structure of the yellowfin tuna stock and surface fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Three distinct versions of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacores, stock and surface tuna fishery, are used to reveal mechanisms which appear to have a significant effect on the fishery dynamics. Real data on this fishery are used to make deductions on the distribution of the fish and to show how that distribution might influence events in the fishery. The most important result of the paper is that the concept of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna stock as a homogeneous unit is inadequate to represent the recent history of the fishery. Inferences are made on the size and distribution of the underlying stock as well as its potential yield to the surface fishery as a result of alterations in the level and distribution of the effort. SPANISH: Se han empleado tres versiones diferentes de TUNP0P, un modelo de simulación de la computadora (basado en la estructura de la edad) de la población y la pesca epipelágica del atún aleta amarilla, Tbunnus albacares, del Pacífico oriental, para revelar los mecanismos que parecen tener un efecto importante en la dinámica pesquera. Se emplean los datos verdaderos de esta pesca para hacer deducciones sobre la distribución de los peces y para mostrar cómo puede influir esta distribución en los eventos de pesca. La conclusión más importante de este estudio es que el concepto de que la población del aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental es una unidad homogénea, es inadecuado para representar la historia reciente de pesca. Se teoriza sobre la talla y distribución de la población subyacente como también sobre su producción potencial en la pesca epipelágica al cambiar el nivel y distribución del esfuerzo.

On modeling and management of capture fisheries: one view

Sustainability of benefits from capture fisheries has been a concern of fisheries scientists for a long time. The development of fisheries management models reflects the historical debate (from maximum sustainable yield to maximum economic yield, and so on) of what benefits are valued and need to be sustained. Social and anthropological research needs an increased emphasis on bio-socioeconomic models to effectively determine directions for fisheries management.

Collaborative Pacific Halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis, Bycatch Control by Canada and the United States

ABSTRACT—Bycatch mortality of Pacific halibut, Hippoglossus stenolepis, in nontarget fisheries is composed primarily of immature fish, and substantial reductions in yield to directed halibut fisheries result from this bycatch. Distant-water bottomtrawl fleets operating off the North American coast, beginning in the mid 1960’s, experienced bycatch mortality of over 12,000 t annually. Substantial progress on reducing this bycatch was not achieved until the of extension fisheries jurisdictions by the United States and Canada in 1977. Bycatch began to increase again during the expansion of domestic catching capacity for groundfish, and by the early 1990’s it had returned to levels seen during the period of foreign fishing. Collaborative action by Canada and the United States through the International Pacific Halibut Commission has resulted in substantial reductions in bycatch mortality in some areas. Methods of control have operated at global, fleet, and individual vessel levels. We evaluate the hierarchy of effectiveness for these control measures and identify regulatory needs for optimum effects. New monitoring technologies offer the promise of more cost-effective approaches to bycatch reduction.

Acontecimento-Escola: entrecruzamentos do fotográfico, artístico e pedagógico

Somente poderiam advir novas formas de existência, outros modos de ser e estar no mundo, se diferentes sensibilidades também acompanhassem o desdobrar de um determinado acontecimento. Esta pesquisa tem como objeto privilegiado os acontecimentos de criação da escola na sua relação com as visibilidades de mundo, fazendo-se ela mesma em preparação e ressurgência de um acontecimento de criação. Inicialmente seria fundamental à pesquisa envolver-se nos cotidianos do colégio estudado para melhor pensar a via de preparação do acontecimento. Tal feita somente poderia adquirir sentido se o dispositivo investigativo mantivesse seus investimentos ao nível do contato com estudantes, esforçando-se por garantir a maior participação deles em diferentes aspectos da preparação, acentuando a partir de nossos encontros à potência de criação evenemencial. Ceder aos indícios durante a preparação significaria aprofundar os vínculos que mantive com a comunidade escolar. E, tendo como principal convite a fotografia, os estudantes realizaram um número significativo de imagens do colégio que, ao final de um extenso período, nos conduziu à ocupação imagética do espaço escolar. Num segundo momento a pesquisa se voltou para o modo de apreensão do acontecimento por parte de toda a comunidade em meio à ocupação do espaço escolar a partir de suas imagens. Composta por oitenta e uma fotografias do espaço escolar, a ocupação concentrou parte destas imagens em uma instalação confeccionada por fios vermelhos no centro do primeiro pavimento, distribuindo o restante delas por entre paredes, banheiros e corredores. Esta apreensão se fez compreendida pelo dispositivo sob os termos de um profundo engajamento com o campo problemático do acontecimento, tendo como índice o destino investido pelas imagens, prolongando senão os efeitos evenemenciais em franca atualização dos gestos, superfícies e visibilidades. Procurei pensar a multiplicidade de relações estabelecidas entre a comunidade escolar e as imagens fotográficas em meio à ocupação imagética realizada no colégio, tomando a sua aparição momentânea como acontecimento de criação, assim como a ressurgência de outras visibilidades presididas em seus contextos. Para tanto, pesquisa precisou se tornar esta íntima criação de uma obra de aprendizagem.

Length-weight relationship of intertidal molluscs from Mumbai, India

A study on the length-weight relationship of common intertidal molluscs from Mumbai showed a high degree of correlation between their length and weight. Most of the molluscs exhibited isometric growth pattern but in some species, allometric growth was found, which is attributed to maturity, nonlinear growth of shell and the ecological conditions. The variations in the growth rate of Gafriarium divaricatum sampled from two geographically separate sites, Bandstand and NCPA, is a result of variation in ecological conditions.

Growth of Tilapia mossambica Peters in different salinities

Tilapia mossambica was found to grow better in saline media than in freshwater. The fish not only grew to maturity but were able to reproduce viable fry in 100% sea water.

Study biological characteristics related with development and reproduction in Barbus capito on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea, Gilan Province

In the present research, a total of 207 pieces of fish from 25 sampling stations in Gilan Province coasts in the years 2001-2002 were biologically studied in terms of their growth and development, reproduction and feeding. The average length and weight of the fishes are increased, as they get older. The highest index of length and weight growth is observed in the years 1 to 2. As the age increases, gradient of length and weight growth diagrams decrease. In studying the relation between length and weight, it was observed that proportionate to the total length, the weight is increased progressively. The fatness coefficient index in the initial years of life and prior to maturity is higher than the post maturity period. As the age increases, the decrease of this index is observable. The fatness coefficient index rate is directly related to index of fullness. The highest Gonadosomatic Index is seen in the months of June and July, i.e. at the times of spawning; and the lowest index rate is observed in the months of November and December. The appropriate temperature for reproduction of these species is from 18 to 22 degree centigrade. The Gonadosomatic Index is higher in spring and summer seasons as compared with autumn and winter. Besides, as the fishes become aged, the amount of the said index increases in a manner that the gradient of it in the years to maturity is less than the maturity time and thereafter. Sexual maturity stages in different months are directly related to Gonadosomatic index, and increase as the age increases. The sexual ratio of male fishes to the female fishes in terms of number is plus one prior to maturity; about one at the time of maturity and minus after maturity. In general the frequency of male fishes as compared with female fishes in all group ages is approximately two times. The fecundity mean, and the diameter and the rate of eggs will substantially increase, as the Gonadosomatic index rises. The maturity age in the male fishes is 3 to 4 years and in female fishes is 4 to 5 years. The spawning of this species in rivers occurs repeatedly and in different time intervals, and do not take place once (Asyncronous). The Gastrosomatic index is directly related to index of fullness and will decrease, as the age increases. The index of fullness is relatively the months of April and May. The underlying reason is the need of the fishes to energy for reproduction. As the spawning time commences, the index of fullness moves down and the downward direction continues. After spa g mg and reduction of the volume of energy in the body, the index of fullness rises, and it will be substantially high until the beginning of fall. In fall and winter as it gets cold, the index of fullness moves downward and the body fat deposits are used. A correlation is shown between the changes in vacuity index and fullness indices. This means that as the fullness index rises, the vacuity index decreases, and vice versa. The Hepatosomatic index prior to the reproduction is at the highest amount and after spawning is at the lowest. No correlation is observed between the fullness and Hepatosomatic indices. In other words reproduction is an inherent and instinct originated matter; and its cycle goes on, alternately and in an orderly manner, upon completion of germinal cells, even when it coincides with reduction or stoppage of somatic cell growth. The rising trend of Hepatosomatic starts in August and will continue until the next July. The volume of fat around digestive tract is severely reduced in early spring and this trend will reach its apex in summer season. In the cold seasons, i.e. the fall and winter, the accumulation of fat around digestive tract increases. Consequently, a meaningful and inverse relation is observed between index of fullness, also the progress of sexual maturity stages and the volume of fat.

Reproductive physiology of ribbon fish (Trichiurus lepturus)

The ribbon fishes ‘of the family Trichiuridac are represented as one of the most important food resources in Indian ocean. High density of the dominant species of ribbon fish (Trichiurus lepturus) in Oman sea and the 'Tillable catch in last yeas (more than 7000 tones per year) makes a trust area for studing their population biolog and stock assessment. As our knowledge on reproductive biology of this species has an important role on their fisheries management, as well as conservation of this stock from decline or over fishing, this research was held to determine some aspects of reproductive physiology of ribbon fish and the effects of environmental factors in gonadal cycle. The goals of the present thesis is to determine some aspects of reproductive physiology such as gonadosomatic index (GSI) , hepatosomatic index (HSI), condition factor (Ko, fecundity, sex ratio, size at first maturity, size at maturity (LM5O) and their relative hormonal & biochemical fluctuations. In this regards annual variation of sex hormones ic. estradiol 17-B, progestron, cortisol, testostrone and gonadotropins FSH (GTH-I) , LH (GTH-ll)I were measured ; gonadal histological studies were done by light & electron micrography. The research was carried out from April 1995 to January 19% in Ras Nleidani in the north part of Oman sea, and the environmental factors such as temperature, salinity, oxygen, rainfall and pH were measured. The effects of these parameters on reproductive cycle and hormonal fluctuationswere discussed by using correlation and principle component analysis (PCA). Female Ribbon fish reproductive strategy shows the same paterns of nonguarder marine teleosts. T. lepturus has more than one spawning season (existance of egges in different size in each month) and therfore it must have asynchronous ovaries and belong to continious spawners. GSI and HSI are good evidences for this type of reproductive patern. The testis of the lobular type , which is typical of most teleosts , is composed of numerous lobules which are separated from each other by a thin layer of fibrous connective tissue. GSI fluctuations revealed prolong- spawning time in males. There is significant increase in 17-13 estradiol. progestrone , cortisol and gonadotropins with maturity and prespawning period of female T lepturus. Plasma concentration of E2 and GTH II incresaed along with water temperature increasing (3300).. Spawning was observed from Nov. 1995 to Apr. 1996 in this species. Progestrone increased significantly with increasing rainfall in this season (P<0.01). Plasma cortisol levels increased with maturation and vitelpgenesis and also with the peak of spawning. From lenght-weight frequency and size distribution in each age groups and also minimum size at first maturity (52a cm) it would he concluded that T. lepturus must be matured at 2 years of age. Serum cholestrol and triglicerides significantly increased when maturation occured in this species. The relationship between alkaline phosphatase activity and hormonal fluctuations with maturity and vitelogenesis were discussed. Proximate compostion (muscle) shows significant variation with spawning period and maturity. Absolute individual fecundity (17420-159150) increased with body length and weight. Ultrastructural observations show dramatic variation in cell membrane (0ocyte membrane), yolk vesicles and, nucleolus dispersal in relation to maturity stages. fluctuations of gonadal hormones were discused in relation with vitelogenesis. Testosterone increased in males from Nov: to Mar. due to environmental impacts and spawning time. Sex ratio in different depth (10-40 m ,80-110 m) shows significnt differences in this ratio for two depths. In 10-40 m depth female shows dominant abundance to male in each months that may be due to their reproductive migration behaviour. The effects of temperature photoperiod and rainfall to maturity and spawning were discussed. According to -pawning period of T. leptunts in our sampling area it could be suggested that ribbon fish fi,theries must be restricted in the peak of spawning seasons (Feb. to Mar.) and in the spawning grounds (under 40 m depths). Other suggestions for population conservation have been mentioned.

Modeling and optimization of semiconductor manufacturing process with neural networks

A neural network-based process model is proposed to optimize the semiconductor manufacturing process. Being different from some works in several research groups which developed neural network-based models to predict process quality with a set of process variables of only single manufacturing step, we applied this model to wafer fabrication parameters control and wafer lot yield optimization. The original data are collected from a wafer fabrication line, including technological parameters and wafer test results. The wafer lot yield is taken as the optimization target. Learning from historical technological records and wafer test results, the model can predict the wafer yield. To eliminate the "bad" or noisy samples from the sample set, an experimental method was used to determine the number of hidden units so that both good learning ability and prediction capability can be obtained.

Separation of potential and kinetic electron emission from Si and W induced by multiply charged neon and argon ions

T he total secondary electron emission yields, gamma(T), induced by impact of the fast ions Neq+ (q = 2-8) and Arq+ (q = 3-12) on Si and Neq+ (q = 2-8) on W targets have been measured. It was observed that for a given impact energy, gamma(T) increases with the charge of projectile ion. By plotting gamma(T) as a function of the total potential energy of the respective ion, true kinetic and potential electron yields have been obtained. Potential electron yield was proportional to the total potential energy of the projectile ion. However, decrease in potential electron yield with increasing kinetic energy of Neq+ impact on Si and W was observed. This decrease in potential electron yield with kinetic energy of the ion was more pronounced for the projectile ions having higher charge states. Moreover, kinetic electron yield to energy-loss ratio for various ion-target combinations was calculated and results were in good agreement with semi-empirical model for kinetic electron emission.

Purification of High-quality Plastid DNA from the Brown Alga Laminaria japonica Sporophytes

Extracting DNA from a variety of algae is rather difficult because of high levels of polysaccharides, tannins, and phenolics as these interfere with DNA isolation and downstream applications. High-quality plastid DNA (ptDNA) purification is particularly difficult because of its small proportion in total genomic DNA. This report describes an improved protocol for ptDNA purification that efficiently produces high-quality ptDNA from sporophytes of Laminaria japonica and several other algae. This improved protocol simplifies procedures for ptDNA purification and improves yield to 150-200 mu g of ptDNA per 100 g of frozen algal tissue. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification of conserved sequences has been used to verify purity of the ptDNA product.

Temperature influence on the spawning performance of artificially-matured Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, in captivity

We studied the influence of temperature on the spawning performance of artificially matured Japanese eels, Anguilla japonica, in captivity. We used routine hormone injections to bring females and males to maturity in separate aquaria. We recorded the behavior of three pairs of such hormone-treated matured eels in an aquarium (2 replicates) at four temperatures: 14, 18, 22, and 27 degrees C, respectively. They became active and frequently left the bottom swimming in the water column, and spawning events occurred. Females released eggs in the water column around the activity peaks. Males preceded females in reaching activity peaks (presumably the timing of sperm ejection and egg release), possibly resulting in the low fertilization we observed in this experiment. Males and females returned back to the aquarium bottoms and became quiet after spawning. On several occasions, male-female or female-female pairs were observed to 'cruise together' in the water column for several to tens of seconds prior to egg releasing, but no courtship behavior indicative of spawning such as pairing and chasing was observed in the eels in our study. Our results suggest that 18-22 degrees C might be the thermal preference for spawning for Japanese eels, which approximates the temperature range of the 500 m deep water layer around the Mariana Islands seamount area, the presumed spawning site for the Japanese eel.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

Synthesis of the alkaloids hopromine, hoprominol and hopromalinol, using transamidation methods.

Synthesis of the unsym. Homalium alkaloids hopromine (I, R = H, R1 = pentyl), hoprominol (I, R = OH, R1 = pentyl) and hopramalinol (I, R = OH, R1 = Ph), in diastereoisomeric mixt. form, is reported. The component eight-membered azalactams are first prepd. N-(3-halogenopropyl)-4-pentyl- and 4-heptylazetidin-2-ones are aminated and ring expanded in liq. ammonia to give, after reductive methylation, the corresponding 4-alkyl-5-methyl-1,5-diazacyclooctan-2-ones. Synthesis of the 4-(2-hydroxyheptyl)-5-methyl-1,5-diazacyclooctan-2-one required for hoprominol and hopromalinol is carried out via 4-allyl ?-lactam ring expansion to the eight-membered 4-allylazalactam, followed by methylation, epoxidn. and epoxide opening with lithium dibutylcuprate. A similar epoxidn.-cuprate sequence was carried out on the epoxypropyl ?-lactam, as its N-tert-butyldimethylsilyl deriv., and led to a convenient copper-catalyzed N- to O-migration of the protection; this migration is examd. Alkylation gave O-tert-butyldimethylsilyl-protected N-(3-chloropropyl)-4-(2-hydroxyheptyl)azetidin-2-one which could be aminated and transamidated in excellent yield, to give, after methylation, a superior sequence to the required eight-membered hydroxy azalactam. Although satisfactory for attachment of the first azalactam unit, a dibromobutane coupling system proved unreactive for the second. Couplings with unmethylated, methylated, and benzyloxycabronyl-protected azalactams were examd. using (E)-1,4-dibromobutene and (Z)-1,4-dichlorobutene as the bridging unit. Employing the latter, coupling the first N-methylated azalactam with potassium bis(trimethylsilyl)amide as the base, and then the second with bis(trimethylsilyl)amide-sodium hydride as the base system, provided a satisfactory synthetic outcome. Hydrogenation under acidic conditions gave the unsym. structures hopromine, hoprominol and hopromalinol, as well as the more simple and sym. alkaloid, homaline.