Integration of renewable generation uncertainties into stochastic unit commitment considering reserve and risk: a comparative study

The uncertainties of renewable energy have brought great challenges to power system commitment, dispatches and reserve requirement. This paper presents a comparative study on integration of renewable generation uncertainties into SCUC (stochastic security-constrained unit commitment) considering reserve and risk. Renewable forecast uncertainties are captured by a list of PIs (prediction intervals). A new scenario generation method is proposed to generate scenarios from these PIs. Different system uncertainties are considered as scenarios in the stochastic SCUC problem formulation. Two comparative simulations with single (E1: wind only) and multiple sources of uncertainty (E2: load, wind, solar and generation outages) are investigated. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies are performed. Different generation costs, reserve strategies and associated risks are compared under various scenarios. Demonstrated results indicate the overall costs of E2 is lower than E1 due to penetration of solar power and the associated risk in deterministic cases of E2 is higher than E1. It implies the superimposed effect of uncertainties during uncertainty integration. The results also demonstrate that power systems run a higher level of risk during peak load hours, and that stochastic models are more robust than deterministic ones.

Renewable energy integration : challenges and solutions

This book presents different aspects of renewable energy integration, from the latest developments in renewable energy technologies to the currently growing smart grids. The importance of different renewable energy sources is discussed, in order to identify the advantages and challenges for each technology. The rules of connecting the renewable energy sources have also been covered along with practical examples. Since solar and wind energy are the most popular forms of renewable energy sources, this book provides the challenges of integrating these renewable generators along with some innovative solutions. As the complexity of power system operation has been raised due to the renewable energy integration, this book also includes some analysis to investigate the characteristics of power systems in a smarter way. This book is intended for those working in the area of renewable energy integration in distribution networks.

A comparative study of MPPT strategies and a novel singlephase integrated buck-boost inverter for small wind energy conversion systems

This paper presents the analysis of some usual MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking) strategies intended for small wind energy conversion (up to 1kW) based on permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG), considering the stand-alone application for a novel buck-boost integrated inverter. Each MPPT method is analytically introduced and then it is simulated using MatLab/Simulink considering standard conditions of wind and also commercially available turbines and generators. The extracted power in each case is compared with the maximum available power, so the tracking factor is calculated for each method. Thus, the focus is on the application to improve the efficiency of stand-alone wind energy conversion systems (WECS) with battery chargers and AC load supplied by inverter. Therefore, for this purpose a novel single phase buck-boost integrated inverter is introduced. Finally, the main experimental results for the introduced inverter are presented. © 2011 IEEE.

Energetic exploitation from a hybrid PV-wind power micro-generation rural electrification

Hybrid system micro-generation integration of PV-wind power is presented by a form of energy in which problems resulting from variability in the intensity of wind and solar intensity are possible mitigation either by complementation between one source to another or the largest stability configured by the generate the system. Based on this context, this work aims to assessing the performance of a hybrid system PV-wind power energy small of a rural property for their electrification. The study has been developed at the Rural Laboratory Powering from Engineering Department of UNESP. In order to present this research, a hybrid system has been installed PV-wind power, composed of one 400Wp windmill and a 300 Wp PV-system. The results obtained allowed us to evaluate the solar and wind energy supplied ranked among 285 and 360 kWh electric power generated by the PV-wind power hybrid system stood between 25,5 and 31 kWh. At is to say achieving yield of approximately than 10% during one year observation period, i.e., it was concluded that the performance of the hybrid system depended essentially the energy received and generated by the PV-system and that there was complementation between generating wind power and PV-systems with regard to time of day and the annual seasons by confirming the technical feasibility of this kind system of micro-generation in small rural properties.

Investigation of the Impacts of Large-Scale Wind Power Penetration on the Angle and Voltage Stability of Power Systems

The complexity of power systems has increased in recent years due to the operation of existing transmission lines closer to their limits, using flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices, and also due to the increased penetration of new types of generators that have more intermittent characteristics and lower inertial response, such as wind generators. This changing nature of a power system has considerable effect on its dynamic behaviors resulting in power swings, dynamic interactions between different power system devices, and less synchronized coupling. This paper presents some analyses of this changing nature of power systems and their dynamic behaviors to identify critical issues that limit the large-scale integration of wind generators and FACTS devices. In addition, this paper addresses some general concerns toward high compensations in different grid topologies. The studies in this paper are conducted on the New England and New York power system model under both small and large disturbances. From the analyses, it can be concluded that high compensation can reduce the security limits under certain operating conditions, and the modes related to operating slip and shaft stiffness are critical as they may limit the large-scale integration of wind generation.

Development of a microgrid with renewable energy sources and electrochemical storage system integration

Beside the traditional paradigm of "centralized" power generation, a new concept of "distributed" generation is emerging, in which the same user becomes pro-sumer. During this transition, the Energy Storage Systems (ESS) can provide multiple services and features, which are necessary for a higher quality of the electrical system and for the optimization of non-programmable Renewable Energy Source (RES) power plants. A ESS prototype was designed, developed and integrated into a renewable energy production system in order to create a smart microgrid and consequently manage in an efficient and intelligent way the energy flow as a function of the power demand. The produced energy can be introduced into the grid, supplied to the load directly or stored in batteries. The microgrid is composed by a 7 kW wind turbine (WT) and a 17 kW photovoltaic (PV) plant are part of. The load is given by electrical utilities of a cheese factory. The ESS is composed by the following two subsystems, a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) and a Power Control System (PCS). With the aim of sizing the ESS, a Remote Grid Analyzer (RGA) was designed, realized and connected to the wind turbine, photovoltaic plant and the switchboard. Afterwards, different electrochemical storage technologies were studied, and taking into account the load requirements present in the cheese factory, the most suitable solution was identified in the high temperatures salt Na-NiCl2 battery technology. The data acquisition from all electrical utilities provided a detailed load analysis, indicating the optimal storage size equal to a 30 kW battery system. Moreover a container was designed and realized to locate the BESS and PCS, meeting all the requirements and safety conditions. Furthermore, a smart control system was implemented in order to handle the different applications of the ESS, such as peak shaving or load levelling.

Increasing Utilization of US Electric Grids via Smart Technologies: Integration of Load Management, Real Time Pricing, Renewables, EVs and Smart Grid Sensors

Electric power grids throughout the world suffer from serious inefficiencies associated with under-utilization due to demand patterns, engineering design and load following approaches in use today. These grids consume much of the world’s energy and represent a large carbon footprint. From material utilization perspectives significant hardware is manufactured and installed for this infrastructure often to be used at less than 20-40% of its operational capacity for most of its lifetime. These inefficiencies lead engineers to require additional grid support and conventional generation capacity additions when renewable technologies (such as solar and wind) and electric vehicles are to be added to the utility demand/supply mix. Using actual data from the PJM [PJM 2009] the work shows that consumer load management, real time price signals, sensors and intelligent demand/supply control offer a compelling path forward to increase the efficient utilization and carbon footprint reduction of the world’s grids. Underutilization factors from many distribution companies indicate that distribution feeders are often operated at only 70-80% of their peak capacity for a few hours per year, and on average are loaded to less than 30-40% of their capability. By creating strong societal connections between consumers and energy providers technology can radically change this situation. Intelligent deployment of smart sensors, smart electric vehicles, consumer-based load management technology very high saturations of intermittent renewable energy supplies can be effectively controlled and dispatched to increase the levels of utilization of existing utility distribution, substation, transmission, and generation equipment. The strengthening of these technology, society and consumer relationships requires rapid dissemination of knowledge (real time prices, costs & benefit sharing, demand response requirements) in order to incentivize behaviors that can increase the effective use of technological equipment that represents one of the largest capital assets modern society has created.

First middle-atmospheric zonal wind profile measurements with a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer

We report on the wind radiometer WIRA, a new ground-based microwave Doppler-spectro-radiometer specifically designed for the measurement of middle-atmospheric horizontal wind by observing ozone emission spectra at 142.17504 GHz. Currently, wind speeds in five levels between 30 and 79 km can be retrieved which makes WIRA the first instrument able to continuously measure horizontal wind in this altitude range. For an integration time of one day the measurement error on each level lies at around 25 m s−1. With a planned upgrade this value is expected to be reduced by a factor of 2 in the near future. On the altitude levels where our measurement can be compared to wind data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) very good agreement in the long-term statistics as well as in short time structures with a duration of a few days has been found. WIRA uses a passive double sideband heterodyne receiver together with a digital Fourier transform spectrometer for the data acquisition. A big advantage of the radiometric approach is that such instruments can also operate under adverse weather conditions and thus provide a continuous time series for the given location. The optics enables the instrument to scan a wide range of azimuth angles including the directions east, west, north, and south for zonal and meridional wind measurements. The design of the radiometer is fairly compact and its calibration does not rely on liquid nitrogen which makes it transportable and suitable for campaign use. WIRA is conceived in a way that it can be operated remotely and does hardly require any maintenance. In the present paper, a description of the instrument is given, and the techniques used for the wind retrieval based on the determination of the Doppler shift of the measured atmospheric ozone emission spectra are outlined. Their reliability was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, a time series of 11 months of zonal wind measurements over Bern (46°57′ N, 7°26′ E) is presented and compared to ECMWF wind data.

Effect of high order interpolation in the stability and efficiency of the time-integration process in vorticity-velocity CFD algorithms

The numerical solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations offers an effective alternative to the experimental analysis of Fluid-Structure interaction i.e. dynamical coupling between a fluid and a solid which otherwise is very complex, time consuming and very expensive. To have a method which can accurately model these types of mechanical systems by numerical solutions becomes a great option, since these advantages are even more obvious when considering huge structures like bridges, high rise buildings, or even wind turbine blades with diameters as large as 200 meters. The modeling of such processes, however, involves complex multiphysics problems along with complex geometries. This thesis focuses on a novel vorticity-velocity formulation called the KLE to solve the incompressible Navier-stokes equations for such FSI problems. This scheme allows for the implementation of robust adaptive ODE time integration schemes and thus allows us to tackle the various multiphysics problems as separate modules. The current algorithm for KLE employs a structured or unstructured mesh for spatial discretization and it allows the use of a self-adaptive or fixed time step ODE solver while dealing with unsteady problems. This research deals with the analysis of the effects of the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition for KLE when applied to unsteady Stoke’s problem. The objective is to conduct a numerical analysis for stability and, hence, for convergence. Our results confirmthat the time step ∆t is constrained by the CFL-like condition ∆t ≤ const. hα, where h denotes the variable that represents spatial discretization.

THE SOLAR WIND AS A POSSIBLE SOURCE OF FAST TEMPORAL VARIATIONS OF THE HELIOSPHERIC RIBBON

We present a possible source of pickup ions (PUIs) the ribbon observed by the Interstellar Boundary EXplorer (IBEX). We suggest that a gyrating solar wind and PUIs in the ramp and in the near downstream region of the termination shock (TS) could provide a significant source of energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) in the ribbon. A fraction of the solar wind and PUIs are reflected and energized during the first contact with the TS. Some of the solar wind may be reflected propagating toward the Sun but most of the solar wind ions form a gyrating beam-like distribution that persists until it is fully thermalized further downstream. Depending on the strength of the shock, these gyrating distributions can exist for many gyration periods until they are scattered/thermalized due to wave-particle interactions at the TS and downstream in the heliosheath. During this time, ENAs can be produced by charge exchange of interstellar neutral atoms with the gyrating ions. In order to determine the flux of energetic ions, we estimate the solar wind flux at the TS using pressure estimates inferred from in situ measurements. Assuming an average path length in the radial direction of the order of a few AU before the distribution of gyrating ions is thermalized, one can explain a significant fraction of the intensity of ENAs in the ribbon observed by IBEX. With a localized source and such a short integration path, this model would also allow fast time variations of the ENA flux.

Power system stability of a small sized isolated network supplied by a combined wind-pumped storage generation system: a case study in the Canary Islands

Massive integration of renewable energy sources in electrical power systems of remote islands is a subject of current interest. The increasing cost of fossil fuels, transport costs to isolated sites and environmental concerns constitute a serious drawback to the use of conventional fossil fuel plants. In a weak electrical grid, as it is typical on an island, if a large amount of conventional generation is substituted by renewable energy sources, power system safety and stability can be compromised, in the case of large grid disturbances. In this work, a model for transient stability analysis of an isolated electrical grid exclusively fed from a combination of renewable energy sources has been studied. This new generation model will be installed in El Hierro Island, in Spain. Additionally, an operation strategy to coordinate the generation units (wind, hydro) is also established. Attention is given to the assessment of inertial energy and reactive current to guarantee power system stability against large disturbances. The effectiveness of the proposed strategy is shown by means of simulation results.

CFD modelling of wind farms in complex terrain

Modelling of entire wind farms in flat and complex terrain using a full 3D Navier–Stokes solver for incompressible flow is presented in this paper. Numerical integration of the governing equations is performed using an implicit pressure correction scheme, where the wind turbines (W/Ts) are modelled as momentum absorbers through their thrust coefficient. The k–ω turbulence model, suitably modified for atmospheric flows, is employed for closure. A correction is introduced to account for the underestimation of the near wake deficit, in which the turbulence time scale is bounded using a general “realizability” constraint for the fluctuating velocities. The second modelling issue that is discussed in this paper is related to the determination of the reference wind speed for the thrust calculation of the machines. Dealing with large wind farms and wind farms in complex terrain, determining the reference wind speed is not obvious when a W/T operates in the wake of another WT and/or in complex terrain. Two alternatives are compared: using the wind speed value at hub height one diameter upstream of the W/T and adopting an induction factor-based concept to overcome the utilization of a wind speed at a certain distance upwind of the rotor. Application is made in two wind farms, a five-machine one located in flat terrain and a 43-machine one located in complex terrain.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

A jövő intelligens technológiai és menedzsmentkérdései-avagy semmilyen szél nem jó annak, aki nem tudja milyen kikötőbe tart (Managerial questions of the future intelligent technologies, or there is no good wind for those who do not know which port they want to sail)

Az elmúlt évtizedek felgyorsult technológiai fejlődése komoly kihívásokat jelent mind a cégeknek, mind az egyéneknek. Intézményesített „jövőkezelésre” és ennek menedzselésére van szükség. A szerzők tanulmányukban át kívánják tekinteni a jövőkutatás, a technológiamenedzsment, az innovációmenedzsment és egyéb megközelítések releváns alapjait, viszonyait és lehetséges integrációjukat. Be kívánják mutatni a meghatározó területeket és trendeket. Keresik azokat a menedzsment-alapkérdéseket, tanulságokat és dilemmákat, amelyek minden olyan vállalatnak érdekesek és hasznosak lehetnek, amelyek a fejlődő technológia lehetőségeit szeretnék kiaknázni, vagy csak egyszerűen szeretnének a követhetetlenül gyors fejlődésben talpon maradni. _____________ The fast pace technology development creates a serious challenge both for individuals and for companies. There is a concept which attempts to handle this challenge by “institutional future management”. In their paper the authors survey the relevant concepts of future studies, technology management and other areas, and explore their connections and integration possibilities. They also would like to introduce some key technology trends, and at the same time some basic managerial questions, dilemmas, conclusions which might have importance to those corporations which have to survive in an environment determined by accelerated technology based innovation.

Investigation of factors driving the costs of operating the 2020 Irish power system with large-scale wind generation

The main goal of this work is to determine the true cost incurred by the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland in order to meet their EU renewable electricity targets. The primary all-island of Ireland policy goal is that 40% of electricity will come from renewable sources in 2020. From this it is expected that wind generation on the Irish electricity system will be in the region of 32-37% of total generation. This leads to issues resulting from wind energy being a non-synchronous, unpredictable and variable source of energy use on a scale never seen before for a single synchronous system. If changes are not made to traditional operational practices, the efficient running of the electricity system will be directly affected by these issues in the coming years. Using models of the electricity system for the all-island grid of Ireland, the effects of high wind energy penetration expected to be present in 2020 are examined. These models were developed using a unit commitment, economic dispatch tool called PLEXOS which allows for a detailed representation of the electricity system to be achieved down to individual generator level. These models replicate the true running of the electricity system through use of day-ahead scheduling and semi-relaxed use of these schedules that reflects the Transmission System Operator's of real time decision making on dispatch. In addition, it carefully considers other non-wind priority dispatch generation technologies that have an effect on the overall system. In the models developed, three main issues associated with wind energy integration were selected to be examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of assumptions presented in other studies. These three issues include wind energy's non-synchronous nature, its variability and spatial correlation, and its unpredictability. This leads to an examination of the effects in three areas: the need for system operation constraints required for system security; different onshore to offshore ratios of installed wind energy; and the degrees of accuracy in wind energy forecasting. Each of these areas directly impact the way in which the electricity system is run as they address each of the three issues associated with wind energy stated above, respectively. It is shown that assumptions in these three areas have a large effect on the results in terms of total generation costs, wind curtailment and generator technology type dispatch. In particular accounting for these issues has resulted in wind curtailment being predicted in much larger quantities than had been previously reported. This would have a large effect on wind energy companies because it is already a very low profit margin industry. Results from this work have shown that the relaxation of system operation constraints is crucial to the economic running of the electricity system with large improvements shown in the reduction of wind curtailment and system generation costs. There are clear benefits in having a proportion of the wind installed offshore in Ireland which would help to reduce variability of wind energy generation on the system and therefore reduce wind curtailment. With envisaged future improvements in day-ahead wind forecasting from 8% to 4% mean absolute error, there are potential reductions in wind curtailment system costs and open cycle gas turbine usage. This work illustrates the consequences of assumptions in the areas of system operation constraints, onshore/offshore installed wind capacities and accuracy in wind forecasting to better inform the true costs associated with running Ireland's changing electricity system as it continues to decarbonise into the near future. This work also proposes to illustrate, through the use of Ireland as a case study, the effects that will become ever more prevalent in other synchronous systems as they pursue a path of increasing renewable energy generation.