Reactive Control for Transmission Overload Relief Based on Sensitivity Analysis and Cooperative Game Theory

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Financial analysis of various strategies for the control of Neospora caninum in dairy cattle in Switzerland

The present study was conducted to estimate the direct losses due to Neospora caninum in Swiss dairy cattle and to assess the costs and benefits of different potential control strategies. A Monte Carlo simulation spreadsheet module was developed to estimate the direct costs caused by N. caninum, with and without control strategies, and to estimate the costs of these control strategies in a financial analysis. The control strategies considered were "testing and culling of seropositive female cattle", "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows", "chemotherapeutical treatment of female offspring" and "vaccination of all female cattle". Each parameter in the module that was considered to be uncertain, was described using probability distributions. The simulations were run with 20,000 iterations over a time period of 25 years. The median annual losses due to N. caninum in the Swiss dairy cow population were estimated to be euro 9.7 million euros. All control strategies that required yearly serological testing of all cattle in the population produced high costs and thus were not financially profitable. Among the other control strategies, two showed benefit-cost ratios (BCR) >1 and positive net present values (NPV): "Discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows" (BCR=1.29, NPV=25 million euros ) and "chemotherapeutical treatment of all female offspring" (BCR=2.95, NPV=59 million euros). In economic terms, the best control strategy currently available would therefore be "discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows".

The implications of cost behaviour for profit planning and control

The work described in the following pages was carried out at various sites in the Rod Division of the Delta Metal Company. Extensive variation in the level of activity in the industry during the years 1974 to I975 had led to certain inadequacies being observed 1n the traditional cost control procedure. In an attempt to remedy this situation it was suggested that a method be found of constructing a system to improve the flexibility of cost control procedures. The work involved an assimilation of the industrial and financial environment via pilot studies which would later prove invaluable to home in on the really interesting and important areas. Weaknesses in the current systems which came to light made the methodology of data collection and the improvement of cost control and profit planning procedures easier to adopt. Because of the requirements of the project to investigate the implications of Cost behaviour for profit planning and control, the next stage of the research work was to utilise the on-site experience to examine at a detailed level the nature of cost behaviour. The analysis of factory costs then showed that certain costs, which were the most significant exhibited a stable relationship with respect to some known variable, usually a specific measure of Output. These costs were then formulated in a cost model, to establish accurate standards in a complex industrial setting in order to provide a meaningful comparison against which to judge actual performance. The necessity of a cost model was •reinforced by the fact that the cost behaviour found to exist was, in the main, a step function, and this complex cost behaviour, the traditional cost and profit planning procedures could not possibly incorporate. Already implemented from this work is the establishment of the post of information officer to co-ordinate data collection and information provision.

Cost and time control of construction projects: a survey of contractors and consultants in the UK

Numerous techniques have been developed to control cost and time of construction projects. However, there is limited research on issues surrounding the practical usage of these techniques. To address this, a survey was conducted on the top 150 construction companies and 100 construction consultancies in the UK aimed at identifying common project control practices and factors inhibiting effective project control in practice. It found that despite the vast application of control techniques a high proportion of respondents still experienced cost and time overruns on a significant proportion of their projects. Analysis of the survey results concluded that more effort should be geared at the management of the identified top project control inhibiting factors. This paper has outlined some measures for mitigating these inhibiting factors so that the outcome of project time and cost control can be improved in practice.

Study of acoustic emission data analysis tools for structural health monitoring applications

Acoustic emission (AE) technique is one of the popular diagnostic techniques used for structural health monitoring of mechanical, aerospace and civil structures. But several challenges still exist in successful application of AE technique. This paper explores various tools for analysis of recorded AE data to address two primary challenges: discriminating spurious signals from genuine signals and devising ways to quantify damage levels.

A framework for cost-aware process management : generation of accurate and timely management accounting cost reports

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency improvements for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables reporting of detailed cost of operations for decision making purpose, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Business process management is concerned with systematically documenting, managing, automating, and optimising processes. Process mining gives valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded by an IT system in the form of an event log with the focus on efficient utilisation of time and resources, although its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, we propose a framework to support management accounting decisions on cost control by automatically incorporating cost data with historical data from event logs for monitoring, predicting and reporting process-related costs. We also illustrate how accurate, relevant and timely management accounting style cost reports can be produced on demand by extending open-source process mining framework ProM.

Earned value management insights using inferential statistics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to summarise a successfully defended doctoral thesis. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a summary of the scope, and main issues raised in the thesis so that readers undertaking studies in the same or connected areas may be aware of current contributions to the topic. The secondary aims are to frame the completed thesis in the context of doctoral-level research in project management as well as offer ideas for further investigation which would serve to extend scientific knowledge on the topic. Design/methodology/approach – Research reported in this paper is based on a quantitative study using inferential statistics aimed at better understanding the actual and potential usage of earned value management (EVM) as applied to external projects under contract. Theories uncovered during the literature review were hypothesized and tested using experiential data collected from 145 EVM practitioners with direct experience on one or more external projects under contract that applied the methodology. Findings – The results of this research suggest that EVM is an effective project management methodology. The principles of EVM were shown to be significant positive predictors of project success on contracted efforts and to be a relatively greater positive predictor of project success when using fixed-price versus cost-plus (CP) type contracts. Moreover, EVM's work-breakdown structure (WBS) utility was shown to positively contribute to the formation of project contracts. The contribution was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects, with exceptions in the areas of schedule planning and payment planning. EVM's “S” curve benefited the administration of project contracts. The contribution of the S-curve was not significantly different between fixed-price and CP contracted projects. Furthermore, EVM metrics were shown to also be important contributors to the administration of project contracts. The relative contribution of EVM metrics to projects under fixed-price versus CP contracts was not significantly different, with one exception in the area of evaluating and processing payment requests. Practical implications – These results have important implications for project practitioners, EVM advocates, as well as corporate and governmental policy makers. EVM should be considered for all projects – not only for its positive contribution to project contract development and administration, for its contribution to project success as well, regardless of contract type. Contract type should not be the sole determining factor in the decision whether or not to use EVM. More particularly, the more fixed the contracted project cost, the more the principles of EVM explain the success of the project. The use of EVM mechanics should also be used in all projects regardless of contract type. Payment planning using a WBS should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate performance risk. Schedule planning using a WBS should be emphasized in CP contracts using EVM in order to help mitigate financial risk. Similarly, EVM metrics should be emphasized in fixed-price contracts in evaluating and processing payment requests. Originality/value – This paper provides a summary of cutting-edge research work and a link to the published thesis that researchers can use to help them understand how the research methodology was applied as well as how it can be extended.

A framework for cost-aware process management : cost reporting and cost prediction

Organisations are constantly seeking efficiency gains for their business processes in terms of time and cost. Management accounting enables detailed cost reporting of business operations for decision making purposes, although significant effort is required to gather accurate operational data. Process mining, on the other hand, may provide valuable insight into processes through analysis of events recorded in logs by IT systems, but its primary focus is not on cost implications. In this paper, a framework is proposed which aims to exploit the strengths of both fields in order to better support management decisions on cost control. This is achieved by automatically merging cost data with historical data from event logs for the purposes of monitoring, predicting, and reporting process-related costs. The on-demand generation of accurate, relevant and timely cost reports, in a style akin to reports in the area of management accounting, will also be illustrated. This is achieved through extending the open-source process mining framework ProM.

Cost effectiveness of bone density measurements

Objective. To assess the cost-effectiveness of bone density screening programmes for osteoporosis. Study design. Using published and locally available data regarding fracture rates and treatment costs, the overall costs per fracture prevented, cost per quality of life year (QALY) saved and cost per year of life gained were estimated for different bone density screening and osteoporosis treatment programmes. Main outcome measures. Cost per fracture prevented, cost per QALY saved, and cost per year of life gained. Results. In women over the age of 50 years, the costs per fracture prevented of treating all women with hormone replacement therapy, or treating only if osteoporosis is demonstrated on bone density screening were £32,594 or £23,867 respectively. For alendronate therapy for the same groups, the costs were £171,067 and £14,067 respectively. Once the background rate of treatment with alendronate reaches 18%, bone density screening becomes cost-saving. Costs estimates per QALY saved ranged from £1,514 to £39,076 for osteoporosis treatment with alendronate following bone density screening. Conclusions. For relatively expensive medications such as alendronate, treatment programmes with prior bone density screening are far more cost effective than those without, and in some circumstances become cost-saving. Costs per QALY of life saved and per year of life gained for osteoporosis treatment with prior bone density screening compare favourably with treatment of hypertension and hypercholesterolemia.

Thermal analysis of poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) irradiated under vacuum

Poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate) (PHBV) was irradiated by Co-60 gamma-rays (doses of 50, 100 and 200kGy) under vacuum. The thermal analysis of control and irradiated PHBV, under vacuum was carried out by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The tensile properties of control and irradiated PHBV were examined by using an Instron tensile testing machine. In the thermal degradation of control and irradiated PHBV, a one-step weight loss was observed. The derivative thermogravimetric curves of control and irradiated PHBV confirmed only one weight-loss step change. The onset degradation temperature (T-o) and the temperature of maximum weight-loss rate (T-p) of control and irradiated PHBV were in line with the heating rate (degreesC min(-1)). T-o and T-p of PHBV decreased with increasing radiation dose at the same heating rate. The DSC results showed that Co-60 gamma-radiation significantly affected the thermal properties of PHBV. With increasing radiation dose, the melting temperature (T-m) of PHBV shifted to a lower value, due to the decrease in crystal size. The tensile strength and fracture strain of the irradiated PHBV decreased, hence indicating an increased brittleness.

Aircraft Cost Modelling using the Genetic Causal Technique within a Systems Engineering Approach

The paper is primarily concerned with the modelling of aircraft manufacturing cost. The aim is to establish an integrated life cycle balanced design process through a systems engineering approach to interdisciplinary analysis and control. The cost modelling is achieved using the genetic causal approach that enforces product family categorisation and the subsequent generation of causal relationships between deterministic cost components and their design source. This utilises causal parametric cost drivers and the definition of the physical architecture from the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) to identify product families. The paper presents applications to the overall aircraft design with a particular focus on the fuselage as a subsystem of the aircraft, including fuselage panels and localised detail, as well as engine nacelles. The higher level application to aircraft requirements and functional analysis is investigated and verified relative to life cycle design issues for the relationship between acquisition cost and Direct Operational Cost (DOC), for a range of both metal and composite subsystems. Maintenance is considered in some detail as an important contributor to DOC and life cycle cost. The lower level application to aircraft physical architecture is investigated and verified for the WBS of an engine nacelle, including a sequential build stage investigation of the materials, fabrication and assembly costs. The studies are then extended by investigating the acquisition cost of aircraft fuselages, including the recurring unit cost and the non-recurring design cost of the airframe sub-system. The systems costing methodology is facilitated by the genetic causal cost modeling technique as the latter is highly generic, interdisciplinary, flexible, multilevel and recursive in nature, and can be applied at the various analysis levels required of systems engineering. Therefore, the main contribution of paper is a methodology for applying systems engineering costing, supported by the genetic causal cost modeling approach, whether at a requirements, functional or physical level.

Investment analysis of chemical projects and development of standerdised mathematical co-relation for cost estimation of pressure vessels in chemical industry

The present study is intended to provide a new scientific approach to the solution of the worlds cost engineering problems encountered in the chemical industries in our nation. The problem is that of cost estimation of equipments especially of pressure vessels when setting up chemical industries .The present study attempts to develop a model for such cost estimation. This in turn is hoped would go a long way to solve this and related problems in forecasting the cost of setting up chemical plants.

Perfil de resistencia microbiológico en ciudados intensivos adultos en la fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá año 2014

Se realizó un estudio descriptivo, retrospectivo; se usó la base de datos de los aislamientos microbiológicos documentados en las UCI de la Fundación Santa fe de Bogotá para el año 2014. La prevalencia de bacterias resistentes en los aislamientos de la FSFB no es baja, por lo que se requiere una terapia empírica acertada acorde con la flora local. Se requieren estudios analíticos para evaluar factores asociados al desarrollo de gérmenes multi resistentes y mortalidad por sepsis

Análisis de los componentes de la cadena de suministro y su relación con el desempeño superior de la organización en el sector manufacturero

En este documento se evidencia como el desempeño organizacional de una empresa, entendido como el rendimiento superior de la misma, se ve modificado por las prácticas o metodologías utilizadas, aplicadas e integradas a cada uno de los componentes de la Cadena de suministros. Es así que el propósito principal es demostrar cual es la relación entre los componentes de la Cadena de Suministros y su gestión sobre los rendimientos económicos de la empresa. De esa manera se encontraron múltiples actividades que toman lugar en los procesos característicos de cada uno de los componentes de la cadena de suministros y que al final nos presentan una variabilidad sobre los rendimientos de la empresa. Cabe recalcar que la investigación se realizó con respecto a empresas pertenecientes al sector manufacturero y abarca una buena parte de este. La importancia que tiene la investigación, es el haber entregado como resultado, el conocimiento sobre algunas de las practicas más utilizadas en el sector en cada uno de sus componentes, lo cual hace de la Cadena de suministros, un factor por excelencia para ser tratado e implementado con el fin de alcanzar mayores rendimientos económicos a nivel de empresa. En la investigación se utilizaron los casos de empresas reales tanto nacionales como internacionales y se encontraron situaciones claves que evidenciaban la hipótesis de la relación entre la cadena de suministros y el desempeño organizacional. Es por ello, que si bien es ahora cierto, que las actividades desarrolladas en los componentes de la Cadena de Suministros de las empresas influyen en el incremento de los rendimientos, es importante que las empresas conozcan de esta información para tener una idea de cómo desarrollar ventajas competitivas que los posicionen como empresa y les genere entonces mayores rendimientos, o por el contrario, les genere ahorros en costos y por ende altos beneficios y nuevas inversiones en prácticas que a la larga volverá a la empresa en un organismo eficientes y próspero.

Modelling of Johne's disease control options in beef cattle: a decision support approach

Johne's disease in cattle is a contagious wasting disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP). Johne's infection is characterised by a long subclinical phase and can therefore go undetected for long periods of time during which substantial production losses can occur. The protracted nature of Johne's infection therefore presents a challenge for both veterinarians and farmers when discussing control options due to a paucity of information and limited test performance when screening for the disease. The objectives were to model Johne's control decisions in suckler beef cattle using a decision support approach, thus implying equal focus on ‘end user’ (veterinarian) participation whilst still focusing on the technical disease modelling aspects during the decision support model development. The model shows how Johne's disease is likely to affect a herd over time both in terms of physical and financial impacts. In addition, the model simulates the effect on production from two different Johne's control strategies; herd management measures and test and cull measures. The article also provides and discusses results from a sensitivity analysis to assess the effects on production from improving the currently available test performance. Output from running the model shows that a combination of management improvements to reduce routes of infection and testing and culling to remove infected and infectious animals is likely to be the least-cost control strategy.