A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

Rational avoidance of accountability

Anthony Downs public choice theory proposes that every rational person would try to meet their own desires in preference to those of others, and that such rational persons would attempt to obtain these desires in the most efficient manner possible. This paper will demonstrate that the application of this theory would mean that public servants and politicians would perform acts of corruption and maladministration in order to efficiently meet their desires. As such action is unavoidable, political parties must appear to meet the public demand for accountability systems, but must not make these systems viable lest they expose the corruption and maladministration that would threaten the government’s chance or re-election. It is therefore logical for governments to display a commitment for accountability whilst simultaneously ensuring the systems would not be able to interfere with government control or expose its flaws.

Accounting for calibration uncertainty in phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary divergence times

The estimation of phylogenetic divergence times from sequence data is an important component of many molecular evolutionary studies. There is now a general appreciation that the procedure of divergence dating is considerably more complex than that initially described in the 1960s by Zuckerkandl and Pauling (1962, 1965). In particular, there has been much critical attention toward the assumption of a global molecular clock, resulting in the development of increasingly sophisticated techniques for inferring divergence times from sequence data. In response to the documentation of widespread departures from clocklike behavior, a variety of local- and relaxed-clock methods have been proposed and implemented. Local-clock methods permit different molecular clocks in different parts of the phylogenetic tree, thereby retaining the advantages of the classical molecular clock while casting off the restrictive assumption of a single, global rate of substitution (Rambaut and Bromham 1998; Yoder and Yang 2000).

A spatial collision avoidance strategy for UAVs in a non-cooperative environment

This paper presents a feasible spatial collision avoidance approach for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The proposed strategy aims to achieve the desired relative bearing in the horizontal plane and relative elevation in the vertical plane so that the host aircraft is able to avoid collision with the intruder aircraft in 3D. The host aircraft will follow a desired trajectory in the collision avoidance course and resume the pre-arranged trajectory after collision is avoided. The approaching stopping condition is determined for the host aircraft to trigger an evasion maneuver to avoid collision in terms of measured heading. A switching controller is designed to achieve the spatial collision avoidance strategy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively avoid spatial collision, making it suitable for integration into flight control systems of UAVs.

A gust-attenuation controller for fixed-wing UAVs during collision avoidance course

This paper presents a nonlinear gust-attenuation controller to stabilize velocities, attitudes and angular rates of a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in the presence of wind gusts. The proposed controller aims to achieve a steady-state flight condition such that the host UAV can avoid airspace collision with other UAVs during the cruise flight. Based on the typical UAV model capturing flight aerodynamics, a nonlinear Hinf controller is developed with rapid response property in consideration of actuator constraints. Simulations are conducted for the Shadow UAV to verify performance of the proposed controller. Comparative studies with the proportional-integral derivative (PID) controllers demonstrate that the proposed controller exhibits great performance improvement in a gusty environment, making it suitable for integration into the design of flight control systems for cruise flight with safety guarantees.

Quadcopter see and avoid using a fuzzy controller

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) industry is a fast growing sector. Nowadays, the market offers numerous possibilities for off-the-shelf UAVs such as quadrotors or fixed-wings. Until UAVs demonstrate advance capabilities such as autonomous collision avoidance they will be segregated and restricted to flight in controlled environments. This work presents a visual fuzzy servoing system for obstacle avoidance using UAVs. To accomplish this task we used the visual information from the front camera. Images are processed off-board and the result send to the Fuzzy Logic controller which then send commands to modify the orientation of the aircraft. Results from flight test are presented with a commercial off-the-shelf platform.

Design of flight avoidance manoeuvre alphabets for mixed centralised-decentralised separation management

This paper investigates a mixed centralised-decentralised air traffic separation management system, which combines the best features of the centralised and decentralised systems whilst ensuring the reliability of the air traffic management system during degraded conditions. To overcome communication band limits, we propose a mixed separation manager on the basis of a robust decision (or min-max) problem that is posed on a reduced set of admissible flight avoidance manoeuvres (or a FAM alphabet). We also present a design method for selecting an appropriate FAM alphabet for use in the mixed separation management system. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the benefits of our proposed FAM alphabet based mixed separation manager.

Modeling collision avoidance decisions in navigation

Due to grave potential human, environmental and economical consequences of collisions at sea, collision avoidance has become an important safety concern in navigation. To reduce the risk of collisions at sea, appropriate collision avoidance actions need to be taken in accordance with the regulations, i.e., International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea. However, the regulations only provide qualitative rules and guidelines, and therefore it requires navigators to decide on collision avoidance actions quantitatively by using their judgments which often leads to making errors in navigation. To better help navigators in collision avoidance, this paper develops a comprehensive collision avoidance decision making model for providing whether a collision avoidance action is required, when to take action and what action to be taken. The model is developed based on three types of collision avoidance actions, such as course change only, speed change only, and a combination of both. The model has potential to reduce the chance of making human error in navigation by assisting navigators in decision making on collision avoidance actions.

A 3D collision avoidance strategy for UAVs in a non-cooperative environment

This paper presents a feasible 3D collision avoidance approach for fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The proposed strategy aims to achieve the desired relative bearing in the horizontal plane and relative elevation in the vertical plane so that the host aircraft is able to avoid collision with the intruder aircraft in 3D. The host aircraft will follow a desired trajectory in the collision avoidance course and resume the pre-arranged trajectory after collision is avoided. The approaching stopping condition is determined for the host aircraft to trigger an evasion maneuver to avoid collision in terms of measured heading. A switching controller is designed to achieve the spatial collision avoidance strategy. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach can effectively avoid spatial collision, making it suitable for integration into flight control systems of UAVs.

Nonlinear H_infinity control of UAVs for collision avoidance in gusty environments

This paper proposes a nonlinear H_infinity controller for stabilization of velocities, attitudes and angular rates of a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) in a windy environment. The suggested controller aims to achieve a steady-state flight condition in the presence of wind gusts such that the host UAV can be maneuvered to avoid collision with other UAVs during cruise flight with safety guarantees. This paper begins with building a proper model capturing flight aerodynamics of UAVs. Then a nonlinear controller is developed with gust attenuation and rapid response properties. Simulations are conducted for the Shadow UAV to verify performance of the proposed con- troller. Comparative studies with the proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controllers demonstrate that the proposed controller exhibits great performance improvement in a gusty environment, making it suitable for integration into the design of flight control systems for cruise flight of UAVs.

Flight guardian: a common avionics architecture for collision avoidance and safe emergency landing for unmanned aerial systems

This paper presents an approach to derive requirements for an avionics architecture that provides onboard sense-and-avoid and autonomous emergency forced landing capabilities to a UAS. The approach is based on two design paradigms that (1) derive requirements analyzing the common functionality between these two functions to then derive requirements for sensors, computing capability, interfaces, etc. (2) consider the risk and safety mitigation associated with these functions to derive certification requirements for the system design. We propose to use the Aircraft Certification Matrix (ACM) approach to tailor the system Development Assurance Levels (DAL) and architecture requirements in accordance with acceptable risk criteria. This architecture is developed under the name “Flight Guardian”. Flight Guardian is an avionics architecture that integrates common sensory elements that are essential components of any UAS that is required to be dependable. The Flight Guardian concept is also applicable to conventionally piloted aircraft, where it will serve to reduce cockpit workload.

Visual servoing approach to collision avoidance for aircraft

This paper presents a reactive Sense and Avoid approach using spherical image-based visual servoing. Avoidance of point targets in the lateral or vertical plane is achieved without requiring an estimate of range. Simulated results for static and dynamic targets are provided using a realistic model of a small fixed wing unmanned aircraft.

Rotorcraft collision avoidance using spherical image-based visual servoing and single point features

This paper presents a reactive collision avoidance method for small unmanned rotorcraft using spherical image-based visual servoing. Only a single point feature is used to guide the aircraft in a safe spiral like trajectory around the target, whilst a spherical camera model ensures the target always remains visible. A decision strategy to stop the avoidance control is derived based on the properties of spiral like motion, and the effect of accurate range measurements on the control scheme is discussed. We show that using a poor range estimate does not significantly degrade the collision avoidance performance, thus relaxing the need for accurate range measurements. We present simulated and experimental results using a small quad rotor to validate the approach.

Intended and actual avoidance of road use situations by older drivers and pedestrians, by gender and age

• The Queensland context • Rationale and aims • Method • Demographics and basic data • Avoidance of driving and walking situations • Success of intended avoidance • Further analyses (preliminary results) • Implications