Linkages among the US energy futures markets

This study investigates the price linkage among the US major energy sources, considering structural breaks in time series, to provide information for diversifying the US energy sources. We find that only a weak linkage sustains among crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, coal, natural gas, uranium and ethanol futures prices. This implies that the US major energy source markets are not integrated as one primary energy market. Our tests also reveal that uranium and ethanol futures prices have very weak linkages with other major energy source prices. This indicates that the US energy market is still at a stage where none of the probable alternative energy source markets are playing the role as substitute or complement markets for the fossil fuel energy markets.

The rise of englightened shareholder primacy and its impact on US corporate self-regulation

Enlightened shareholder primacy (“ESP”) is a new approach in the corporate governance (“CG”) framework. The emergence of this approach is important owing to its role in answering a vital question: is the company really a private organisation to be seen only through the economic prism of contract? Or is it public and about a wider group of interests and underwritten by communitarian concern about social responsibility? Apart from answering this question, ESP explains the changes in corporate directors’ roles and self-regulation strategies of companies.

The value of tail risk hedging in defined contribution plans: What does history tell us

Hedging against tail events in equity markets has been forcefully advocated in the aftermath of recent global financial crisis. Whether this is beneficial to long horizon investors like employees enrolled in defined contribution (DC) plans, however, has been subject to criticism. We conduct historical simulation since 1928 to examine the effectiveness of active and passive tail risk hedging using out of money put options for hypothetical equity portfolios of DC plan participants with 20 years to retirement. Our findings show that the cost of tail hedging exceeds the benefits for a majority of the plan participants during the sample period. However, for a significant number of simulations, hedging result in superior outcomes relative to an unhedged position. Active tail hedging is more effective when employees confront several panic-driven periods characterized by short and sharp market swings in the equity markets over the investment horizon. Passive hedging, on the other hand, proves beneficial when they encounter an extremely rare event like the Great Depression as equity markets go into deep and prolonged decline.

What patient information allows us to make accurate predictions of outcome?

Only some of the information contained in a medical record will be useful to the prediction of patient outcome. We describe a novel method for selecting those outcome predictors which allow us to reliably discriminate between adverse and benign end results. Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic as a nonparametric measure of discrimination, we show how to calculate the maximum discrimination attainable with a given set of discrete valued features. This upper limit forms the basis of our feature selection algorithm. We use the algorithm to select features (from maternity records) relevant to the prediction of failure to progress in labour. The results of this analysis motivate investigation of those predictors of failure to progress relevant to parous and nulliparous sub-populations.

Catching drink drivers in Queensland through Random Breath Testing : what does the last decade of data tell us

Background Random Breath Testing (RBT) has proven to be a cornerstone of enforcement attempts to deter (as well as apprehend) motorists from drink driving in Queensland (Australia) for decades. However, scant published research has examined the relationship between the frequency of implementing RBT activities and subsequent drink driving apprehension rates across time. Aim This study aimed to examine the prevalence of apprehending drink drivers in Queensland over a 12 year period. It was hypothesised that an increase in breath testing rates would result in a corresponding decrease in the frequency of drink driving apprehension rates over time, which would reflect general deterrent effects. Method The Queensland Police Service provided RBT data that was analysed. Results Between the 1st of January 2000 and 31st of December 2011, 35,082,386 random breath tests (both mobile and stationary) were conducted in Queensland, resulting in 248,173 individuals being apprehended for drink driving offences. A total of 342,801 offences were recorded during this period, representing an intercept rate of .96. Of these offences, 276,711 (80.72%) were recorded against males and 66,024 (19.28%) offences committed by females. The most common drink driving offence was between 0.05 and 0.08 BAC limit. The largest proportion of offences was detected on the weekends, with Saturdays (27.60%) proving to be the most common drink driving night followed by Sundays (21.41%). The prevalence of drink driving detection rates rose steadily across time, peaking in 2008 and 2009, before slightly declining. This decline was observed across all Queensland regions and any increase in annual figures was due to new offence types being developed. Discussion This paper will further outline the major findings of the study in regards to tailoring RBT operations to increase detection rates as well as improve the general deterrent effect of the initiative.

‘Ngulluck Katitj Wah Koorl Koorliny/ Us mob going along learning to research together’ : drawing on action research to develop a literature review on Indigenous gendered health and wellbeing

This paper describes the collaborative work practices of the Health and Wellbeing Node within the National Indigenous Research and Knowledges Network (NIRAKN). The authors reflect on the processes they used to research and develop a literature review. As a newly established research team, the Health and Wellbeing Node members developed a collaborative approach that was informed by Action Research practices and underpinned by Indigenous ways of working. The authors identify strong links between Action Research and Indigenous processes. They suggest that, through ongoing cycles of research and review, the NIRAKN Health and Wellbeing Node developed a culturally safe, respectful and trulycollaborative way of working together and forming the identity of their work group. In this paper, they describe their developing work processes and explain the way that pictorial conceptual models contributed to their emerging ideas.

Stories have the power to save us: A neurological framework for the imperative to tell stories

The evolutionary advantage of humans is in our unique ability to process stories – we have highly evolved ‘narrative organs.’ Through storytelling, vicarious knowledge, even guarded knowledge, is used to help our species to survive. We learn, regardless of whether the story being told is ‘truth’ or ‘fiction.’ This article discusses how humans place themselves in stories, as both observer and participant, to create a ‘neural balance’ or sweet spot that allows them to be immersed in a story without being entirely threatened by it – and how this involvement in story is the formation of empathy – an empathy that is integral to forging a future humanity. It is through empathy, we argue, that stories have the power to save us.

Why a movie tax will make even more of us pirates

In a nation of rampant illegal downloaders, a tax on movies and television downloads is the last thing we need. Australian consumers and content producers are among those likely to be worse off should Joe Hockey succeed in his efforts to extend GST to online video-on-demand services like Netflix. It is easy to see why Mr Hockey and his state treasurer counterparts have reportedly agreed to this move. That doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

Implementing improvements to health care services in the US

In a previous blog I was critical of the US health care system for not using cost-effectiveness information to plan their services. Today I’m going to talk about the implementation of innovation in health services, something the US does really well compared to Australia.

What can game AI teach us?

Artificial intelligence (AI) applications typically involve encoding expert knowledge in machine form to find optimal solutions for a given problem. However, this paper deals with the opposite process of extracting new and human-comprehensible insights from emergent AI behaviour. Some examples of useful game-related insights drawn from observing AI players in action are presented.

The US’ trade secrets demands and what they mean for journos

Leaked Trans-Pacific Partnership documents show the US is pushing for unprecedented penalties for those (like journalists) who expose trade secrets. Will Australia go along with the proposal?