894 resultados para Transportation Supply-Demand Modeling.


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Maintenance of green leaf area during grain filling can increase grain yield of sorghum grown under terminal water limitation. This 'stay-green' trait has been related to the nitrogen (N) supply-demand balance during grain filling. This study quantifies the N demand of grain and N translocation rates from leaves and stem and explores effects of genotype and N stress on onset and rate of leaf senescence during the grain filling period. Three hybrids differing in potential height were grown at three levels of N supply under well-watered conditions. Vertical profiles of biomass, leaf area, and N% of leaves, stem and grain were measured at regular intervals. Weekly SPAD chlorophyll readings on main shoot leaves were correlated with observed specific leaf nitrogen (SLN) to derive seasonal patterns of leaf N content. For all hybrids, individual grain N demand was sink determined and was initially met through N translocation from the stem and rachis. Only if this was insufficient did leaf N translocation occur. Maximum N translocation rates from leaves and stem were dependent on their N status. However, the supply of N at canopy scale was also related to the amount of leaf area senescing at any one time. This supply-demand framework for N dynamics explained effects of N stress and genotype on the onset and rate of leaf senescence.

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There is a large gap between the refined approaches to characterise genotypes and the common use of location and season as a coarse surrogate for environmental characterisation of breeding trials. As a framework for breeding, the aim of this paper is quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of thermal and water stress for field pea in Australia. We compiled a dataset for yield of the cv. Kaspa measured in 185 environments, and investigated the associations between yield and seasonal patterns of actual temperature and modelled water stress. Correlations between yield and temperature indicated two distinct stages. In the first stage, during crop establishment and canopy expansion before flowering, yield was positively associated with minimum temperature. Mean minimum temperature below similar to 7 degrees C suggests that crops were under suboptimal temperature for both canopy expansion and radiation-use efficiency during a significant part of this early growth period. In the second stage, during critical reproductive phases, grain yield was negatively associated with maximum temperature over 25 degrees C. Correlations between yield and modelled water supply/demand ratio showed a consistent pattern with three phases: no correlation at early stages of the growth cycle, a progressive increase in the association that peaked as the crop approached the flowering window, and a progressive decline at later reproductive stages. Using long-term weather records (1957-2010) and modelled water stress for 104 locations, we identified three major patterns of water deficit nation wide. Environment type 1 (ET1) represents the most favourable condition, with no stress during most of the pre-flowering phase and gradual development of mild stress after flowering. Type 2 is characterised by increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and 200 degree-days after flowering and rainfall that relieves stress late in the season. Type 3 represents the more stressful condition with increasing water deficit between 400 degree-days before flowering and maturity. Across Australia, the frequency of occurrence was 24% for ET1, 32% for ET2 and 43% for ET3, highlighting the dominance of the most stressful condition. Actual yield averaged 2.2 t/ha for ET1, 1.9 t/ha for ET2 and 1.4 t/ha for ET3, and the frequency of each pattern varied substantially among locations. Shifting from a nominal (i.e. location and season) to a quantitative (i.e. stress type) characterisation of environments could help improving breeding efficiency of field pea in Australia.

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Recurring water stresses are a major risk factor for rainfed maize cropping across the highly diverse agro-ecological environments of Queensland (Qld) and northern New South Wales (NNSW). Enhanced understanding of such agro-ecological diversity is necessary to more consistently sample target production environments for testing and targeting release of improved germplasm, and to improve the efficiency of the maize pre-breeding and breeding programs of Qld and New South Wales. Here, we used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) – a well validated maize crop model to characterize the key distinctive water stress patterns and risk to production across the main maize growing regions of Qld and NNSW located between 15.8° and 31.5°S, and 144.5° and 151.8°E. APSIM was configured to simulate daily water supply demand ratios (SDRs) around anthesis as an indicator of the degree of water stress, and the final grain yield. Simulations were performed using daily climatic records during the period between 1890 and 2010 for 32 sites-soils in the target production regions. The runs were made assuming adequate nitrogen supply for mid-season maize hybrid Pioneer 3153. Hierarchical complete linkage analyses of the simulated yield resulted in five major clusters showing distinct probability distribution of the expected yields and geographic patterns. The drought stress patterns and their frequencies using SDRs were quantified using multivariate statistical methods. The identified stress patterns included no stress, mid-season (flowering) stress, and three terminal stresses differing in terms of severity. The combined frequency of flowering and terminal stresses was highest (82.9%), mainly in sites-soils combinations in the west of Qld and NNSW. Yield variability across the different sites-soils was significantly related to the variability in frequencies of water stresses. Frequencies of water stresses within each yield cluster tended to be similar, but different across clusters. Sites-soils falling within each yield cluster therefore could be treated as distinct maize production environments for testing and targeting newly developed maize cultivars and hybrids for adaptation to water stress patterns most common to those environments.

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Tillering determines the plant size of sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) and an understanding of its regulation is important to match genotypes to prevalent growing conditions in target production environments. The aim of this study was to determine the physiological and environmental regulation of variability in tillering among sorghum genotypes, and to develop a framework for this regulation. * Diverse sorghum genotypes were grown in three experiments with contrasting temperature, radiation and plant density to create variation in tillering. Data on phenology, tillering, and leaf and plant size were collected. A carbohydrate supply/demand (S/D) index that incorporated environmental and genotypic parameters was developed to represent the effects of assimilate availability on tillering. Genotypic differences in tillering not explained by this index were defined as propensity to tiller (PTT) and probably represented hormonal effects. * Genotypic variation in tillering was associated with differences in leaf width, stem diameter and PTT. The S/D index captured most of the environmental effects on tillering and PTT most of the genotypic effects. * A framework that captures genetic and environmental regulation of tillering through assimilate availability and PTT was developed, and provides a basis for the development of a model that connects genetic control of tillering to its phenotypic consequences.

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Agriculture is an economic activity that heavily relies on the availability of natural resources. Through its role in food production agriculture is a major factor affecting public welfare and health, and its indirect contribution to gross domestic product and employment is significant. Agriculture also contributes to numerous ecosystem services through management of rural areas. However, the environmental impact of agriculture is considerable and reaches far beyond the agroecosystems. The questions related to farming for food production are, thus, manifold and of great public concern. Improving environmental performance of agriculture and sustainability of food production, sustainabilizing food production, calls for application of wide range of expertise knowledge. This study falls within the field of agro-ecology, with interphases to food systems and sustainability research and exploits the methods typical of industrial ecology. The research in these fields extends from multidisciplinary to interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary, a holistic approach being the key tenet. The methods of industrial ecology have been applied extensively to explore the interaction between human economic activity and resource use. Specifically, the material flow approach (MFA) has established its position through application of systematic environmental and economic accounting statistics. However, very few studies have applied MFA specifically to agriculture. The MFA approach was used in this thesis in such a context in Finland. The focus of this study is the ecological sustainability of primary production. The aim was to explore the possibilities of assessing ecological sustainability of agriculture by using two different approaches. In the first approach the MFA-methods from industrial ecology were applied to agriculture, whereas the other is based on the food consumption scenarios. The two approaches were used in order to capture some of the impacts of dietary changes and of changes in production mode on the environment. The methods were applied at levels ranging from national to sector and local levels. Through the supply-demand approach, the viewpoint changed between that of food production to that of food consumption. The main data sources were official statistics complemented with published research results and expertise appraisals. MFA approach was used to define the system boundaries, to quantify the material flows and to construct eco-efficiency indicators for agriculture. The results were further elaborated for an input-output model that was used to analyse the food flux in Finland and to determine its relationship to the economy-wide physical and monetary flows. The methods based on food consumption scenarios were applied at regional and local level for assessing feasibility and environmental impacts of relocalising food production. The approach was also used for quantification and source allocation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of primary production. GHG assessment provided, thus, a means of crosschecking the results obtained by using the two different approaches. MFA data as such or expressed as eco-efficiency indicators, are useful in describing the overall development. However, the data are not sufficiently detailed for identifying the hot spots of environmental sustainability. Eco-efficiency indicators should not be bluntly used in environmental assessment: the carrying capacity of the nature, the potential exhaustion of non-renewable natural resources and the possible rebound effect need also to be accounted for when striving towards improved eco-efficiency. The input-output model is suitable for nationwide economy analyses and it shows the distribution of monetary and material flows among the various sectors. Environmental impact can be captured only at a very general level in terms of total material requirement, gaseous emissions, energy consumption and agricultural land use. Improving environmental performance of food production requires more detailed and more local information. The approach based on food consumption scenarios can be applied at regional or local scales. Based on various diet options the method accounts for the feasibility of re-localising food production and environmental impacts of such re-localisation in terms of nutrient balances, gaseous emissions, agricultural energy consumption, agricultural land use and diversity of crop cultivation. The approach is applicable anywhere, but the calculation parameters need to be adjusted so as to comply with the specific circumstances. The food consumption scenario approach, thus, pays attention to the variability of production circumstances, and may provide some environmental information that is locally relevant. The approaches based on the input-output model and on food consumption scenarios represent small steps towards more holistic systemic thinking. However, neither one alone nor the two together provide sufficient information for sustainabilizing food production. Environmental performance of food production should be assessed together with the other criteria of sustainable food provisioning. This requires evaluation and integration of research results from many different disciplines in the context of a specified geographic area. Foodshed area that comprises both the rural hinterlands of food production and the population centres of food consumption is suggested to represent a suitable areal extent for such research. Finding a balance between the various aspects of sustainability is a matter of optimal trade-off. The balance cannot be universally determined, but the assessment methods and the actual measures depend on what the bottlenecks of sustainability are in the area concerned. These have to be agreed upon among the actors of the area

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In this paper, we examine the predictability of observed volatility smiles in three major European index options markets, utilising the historical return distributions of the respective underlying assets. The analysis involves an application of the Black (1976) pricing model adjusted in accordance with the Jarrow-Rudd methodology as proposed in 1982. Thereby we adjust the expected future returns for the third and fourth central moments as these represent deviations from normality in the distributions of observed returns. Thus, they are considered one possible explanation to the existence of the smile. The obtained results indicate that the inclusion of the higher moments in the pricing model to some extent reduces the volatility smile, compared with the unadjusted Black-76 model. However, as the smile is partly a function of supply, demand, and liquidity, and as such intricate to model, this modification does not appear sufficient to fully capture the characteristics of the smile.

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In this paper, we develop a consolidated Supply-Demand framework of the Venture Capital (VC) ecosystem for India. Further, we empirically analyze the supply side of this ecosystem to ascertain the influence of systematic (macro) and non-systematic (micro) factors on VC fundraising. At the macro level, our results indicate that relatively strong fundamentals of the Indian economy in the past decade as compared with the severe recessionary tendencies in the developed economies have been critical in determining the aggregate volume of VC fundraising. Among the micro factors, past performance and reputation of the individual fund managers have been instrumental in determining their fund raising potential.

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The need to stimulate, identify and nurture new industries is a prominent challenge in advanced economies. While basic science represents a valuable source of new ideas and opportunities, it can often take decades before this science finally finds application in the market. While numerous studies have to date focused on aspects of industrial evolution, (e.g. innovation, internationalisation, new product introduction, technological lifecycles and emerging technologies), far fewer have focused on technology-based industrial emergence. It is clear that if assistance is to be provided to firms and industrial policymakers attempting to navigate industrial emergence then we need an improved understanding of the characteristics and dynamics of this phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper reviews published work from a range of disparate disciplines - evolutionary theory, social construction of technology (SCOT), complexity science, industrial dynamics and technology management - to identify these dynamics. Through this review we conceptualise industrial emergence as a co-evolutionary process in which nonlinear dynamics operate. Industrial emergence is sensitive to the initial availability of resources and the market applications, with growth dependent on the supply-demand coupling, agents' actions to reduce uncertainty and catalytic events. Through synthesizing these key dynamics we go on to propose a conceptual model for industrial emergence. © 2010 IEEE.

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Evolução e perspectivas de desempenho econômico associadas com a produção de soja nos contextos mundial e brasileiro. O mercado mundial de produtos do complexo soja. O mercado e a produção de soja no Brasil. Expectativas de desempenho econômico para a safra 2009/10.

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El litoral de Alicante ha sufrido grandes transformaciones territoriales desde las décadas de 1960 y 1970 a raíz de la actividad turística. Uno de los servicios que necesita esta actividad, entre otros, es el abastecimiento de agua potable. En este sentido, por su papel estratégico, el suministro de agua en alta es decisivo para abastecer a los municipios turístico-residenciales. El objetivo de este estudio es conocer y analizar los diferentes sistemas de abastecimiento de agua en alta en la costa de Alicante, sus características, infraestructuras, recursos hídricos disponibles y medidas de gestión llevados a cabo. Algunas de las conclusiones extraídas son el papel estratégico que ejercen en el territorio, especialmente con el agua, un recurso escaso y de vital importancia para la orla costera alicantina, sobre todo en los meses estivales.

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This paper presents a multi-agent system approach to address the difficulties encountered in traditional SCADA systems deployed in critical environments such as electrical power generation, transmission and distribution. The approach models uncertainty and combines multiple sources of uncertain information to deliver robust plan selection. We examine the approach in the context of a simplified power supply/demand scenario using a residential grid connected solar system and consider the challenges of modelling and reasoning with
uncertain sensor information in this environment. We discuss examples of plans and actions required for sensing, establish and discuss the effect of uncertainty on such systems and investigate different uncertainty theories and how they can fuse uncertain information from multiple sources for effective decision making in
such a complex system.

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This paper documents and discusses a dramatic change in the cyclical behavior of aggregate hours worked by individuals with a college degree (skilled workers) since the mid-1980’s. Using the CPS outgoing rotation data set for the period 1979:1-2003:4, we find that the volatility of aggregate skilled hours relative to the volatility of GDP has nearly tripled since 1984. In contrast, the cyclical properties of unskilled hours have remained essentially unchanged. We evaluate the extent to which a simple supply/demand model for skilled and unskilled labor with capital-skill complementarity in production can help explain this stylized fact. Within this framework, we identify three effects which would lead to an increase in the relative volatility of skilled hours: (i) a reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity, (ii) a reduction in the absolute volatility of GDP (and unskilled hours), and (iii) an increase in the level of capital equipment relative to skilled labor. We provide empirical evidence in support of each of these effects. Our conclusion is that these three mechanisms can jointly explain about sixty percent of the observed increase in the relative volatility of skilled labor. The reduction in the degree of capital-skill complementarity contributes the most to this result.

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Le développement axé sur le transport en commun (transit-oriented development ou TOD) est un concept urbanistique souvent proposé comme solution aux problèmes associés à l’étalement urbain. La majorité des recherches sur ce concept sont descriptives ; rares sont les études qui examinent l’impact des projets de TOD sur les comportements en transport. Certains chercheurs proposent d’étudier les raisons qui expliquent la rareté de véritables TOD en Amérique du Nord. Cette approche s’appuie sur l’hypothèse que ce manque d’exemples est le résultat d’une faible demande, ou d’une multiplicité de barrières, quelles soient financière, réglementaire, politique, organisationnelle ou structurelle. Notre étude s’inscrit dans ce courant, afin d’examiner le développement de TOD dans la région métropolitaine de Montréal. L’étude empirique se concentre sur la perspective des promoteurs immobiliers quant à l’ampleur de la demande et des barrières à l’offre de TOD. La méthodologie de notre étude consiste en des entrevues avec les promoteurs immobiliers travaillant dans la banlieue montréalaise. Les résultats montrent que la demande est en croissance pour les produits ayant certaines caractéristiques de TOD, mais que la demande pour des TOD reste faible. Deux barrières principales ressortent de cette étude, soit le manque de terrains et l’offre insuffisante de service de transport en commun. On peut identifier d’autres obstacles majeurs dont le manque d’une définition commune du TOD et une structure de l’industrie de l’industrie mal adaptée à ces formes de développement. L’étude conclue que la réalisation de TOD dans le contexte montréalais requiert que les acteurs gouvernementaux assument un rôle plus proactif et visionnaire.

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Ongoing changes in global economic structure along information revolution have produced an environment where knowledge and skills or education and training are considered increasingly valued commodities. This is based on the simple notion that nation’s economic progress is linked to education and training. This idea is embodied in the theory of human capital, according to which the knowledge and skill found in labour represents valuable resources for the market. Thus the important assumptions of the Human capital theory are 910 Human capital is an investment for future (2) More training and education leads to better work skills (3) Educational institutions play a central role in the development of human capital(4) the technological revolution is often cited as the most pressing reason why education and knowledge are becoming valuable economic commodities . The objectives of the present study are, the investment and institutional or structural framework of higher education in Kerala, the higher education market and the strengths and weakness of supply demand conditions , cost and the benefits of higher education in Kerala , impact of recent policy changes in higher education,need for expanding higher education market to solve the grave problem of Un employment on the basis of as systematic manpower planning and the higher education and its association with income and employment.

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Globally most of the conventional fish stocks have reached a state of optimum exploitation or even over-exploitation; efficient utilization of non-conventional resources is necessary to meet the supply-demand gap for protein supply. Mesopelagic fishes can be considered as one such promising resource for the future, if appropriate harvest and post-harvest technologies are developed. Increasing human population and increasing demand for cheaper food fishes has made myctophids a possible potential resource for future exploitation and utilization. Earlier studies indicated the abundance of Diaphus spp. in the eastern and northeastern Arabian Sea. The present study also indicates the dominance of Diaphus spp. in the deep sea trawling grounds of south west coast of India. Commercial viability of the myctophid fishing in the Indian waters has to be worked out. The present catch estimation is based on the Stratified Random Sampling Method from the landing data. As the coverage of sampling area was limited and the gear efficiency was not standardized, the data generated are not precise. A counter check for the estimates is also not possible due to the absence of comparable works in the study area. Fish biomass estimation by acoustics survey coupled with direct fishing would only confirm the accuracy of estimates. Exploratory surveys for new fishing areas to be continued, for gathering the distribution, abundance, biological and ecological data and map the potential fishing ground on a GIS platform and the data should be provided to the commercial entrepreneurs. Generally non-conventional and non-targeted resources are under low fishing pressure and exploitation rates. Low values of fishing mortality and exploitation rates indicate that removal from the stock by fishing was only nominal from the present fishing grounds. The results indicate that the stock is almost at virgin state and remains grossly underexploited. Since the extent of distribution and abundance of the stock in the ecosystem remains to be ascertained, sustainable yield could not be estimated. Also the impact of myctophids harvest, on other commercially important fishes, has to be studied.