Daily scale wintertime sea surface temperature and IPC-Navidad variability in the southern Bay of Biscay from 1981 to 2010

The combination of remotely sensed gappy Sea surface temperature (SST) images with the missing data filling DINEOF (data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions) technique, followed by a principal component analysis of the reconstructed data, has been used to identify the time evolution and the daily scale variability of the wintertime surface signal of the Iberian Poleward Current (IPC), or Navidad, during the 1981-2010 period. An exhaustive comparison with the existing bibliography, and the vertical temperature and salinity profiles related to its extremes over the Bay of Biscay area, show that the obtained time series accurately reflect the IPC-Navidad variability. Once a time series for the evolution of the SST signal of the current over the last decades is well established, this time series is used to propose a physical mechanism in relation to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, involving both atmospheric and oceanic variables. According to the proposed mechanism, an atmospheric circulation anomaly observed in both the 500 hPa and the surface levels generates atmospheric surface level pressure, wind-stress and heat-flux anomalies. In turn, those surface level atmospheric anomalies induce mutually coherent SST and sea level anomalies over the North Atlantic area, and locally, in the Bay of Biscay area. These anomalies, both locally over the Bay of Biscay area and over the North Atlantic, are in agreement with several mechanisms that have separately been related to the variability of the IPC-Navidad, i.e. the south-westerly winds, the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) effect, the topographic beta effect and a weakened North Atlantic gyre.

Calculation of the hourly and daily radiation incident on three step tracking planes

Mathematical formulas for estimating the hourly and daily radiation incident on planes of azimuth three step tracking and hour angle three step tracking have been derived in this paper. Based on the hourly solar radiation data of an average day in each month at Er-Lian-Hao-Te city, the hourly and monthly radiation received by planes of these two kinds of tracking have been calculated. The results show that in this district, one axis azimuth three step tracking and hour angle three step tracking could, respectively, obtain 66.5% and 63.3% higher radiation than that on the horizontal surface all year. Moreover, a two axis azimuth three step tracking plane could receive 72% more radiation than the horizontal surface. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Something to show for it: the place of mementoes in women’s oral histories of work

Workplace memorabilia, regarded here as artifacts and mementoes kept from workplaces and stored in homes, is varied, including; tools of a trade, ephemeral leaflets and pamphlets, union mementoes, uniforms and badges, long service awards, gifts from colleagues, and photographs both formal and informal. These objects can symbolize many years of work-life history and the corollary of this, their absence, perhaps the need to forget the drudgery of ‘the daily grind’. The materiality of an object saved or taken from the workplace often prompts reminiscence (Bornat, 2001) but can also, in itself and its method of display, represent and express key identities, work processes and traditions. Using examples from a three year ESRC funded project on work and identity this paper focuses on the women who participated in the study and investigates what is kept or not, whether the ways in which work memorabilia is displayed or stored is gendered, and how this might illuminate gendered social relations in the workplace and gendered work identities.

Daily dynamics of photosynthesis of the freshwater red alga Sirodotia delicatula (Batrachospermales, Rhodophyta)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

The key lessons learnt from producing the ABC programme Talking Heads a talk show/documentary hybrid in a fast turnaround environment

The following exegesis will detail the key advantages and disadvantages of combining a traditional talk show genre with a linear documentary format using a small production team and a limited budget in a fast turnaround weekly environment. It will deal with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation series Talking Heads, broadcast weekly in the early evening schedule for the network at 18.30 with the presenter Peter Thompson. As Executive Producer for the programme at its inception I was responsible for setting it up for the ABC in Brisbane, a role that included selecting most of the team to work on the series and commissioning the music, titles and all other aspects required to bring the show to the screen. What emerged when producing this generic hybrid will be examined at length, including: „h The talk show/documentary hybrid format needs longer than 26¡¦30¡¨ to be entirely successful. „h The type of presenter ideally suited to the talk show/documentary format requires someone who is genuinely interested in their guests and flexible enough to maintain the format against tangential odds. „h The use of illustrative footage shot in a documentary style narrative improves the talk show format. iv „h The fast turnaround of the talk show/documentary hybrid puts tremendous pressure on the time frames for archive research and copyright clearance and therefore needs to be well-resourced. „h In a fast turnaround talk show/documentary format the field components are advantageous but require very low shooting ratios to be sustainable. „h An intimate set works best for a talk show hybrid like this. Also submitted are two DVDs of recordings of programmes I produced and directed from the first and third series. These are for consideration in the practical component of this project and reflect the changes that I made to the series.

Child participation in the early years : challenges for education

The view that children should have a say in and participate in the decision-making of, matters that affect them is now an accepted position when considering research and policy in the early years. This paper reviews the field of child participation in the Australian context to show that, despite growing evidence of support within policy and research arenas, young children’s participation rights in Australia have not been key agenda items for early childhood education. While a significant part of children’s daily experience takes place in classrooms, the actual practices of engaging young children as participants in everyday activities remains a challenge for early childhood education. Participation is an interactional process that involves managing relationships between children and adults. Recommendations include further research into the daily experiences of young children to show what participation might look like when translated to the everyday activities of the classroom and playground.

Using Bayesian methods for the estimation of uncertainty in complex statistical models

The research objectives of this thesis were to contribute to Bayesian statistical methodology by contributing to risk assessment statistical methodology, and to spatial and spatio-temporal methodology, by modelling error structures using complex hierarchical models. Specifically, I hoped to consider two applied areas, and use these applications as a springboard for developing new statistical methods as well as undertaking analyses which might give answers to particular applied questions. Thus, this thesis considers a series of models, firstly in the context of risk assessments for recycled water, and secondly in the context of water usage by crops. The research objective was to model error structures using hierarchical models in two problems, namely risk assessment analyses for wastewater, and secondly, in a four dimensional dataset, assessing differences between cropping systems over time and over three spatial dimensions. The aim was to use the simplicity and insight afforded by Bayesian networks to develop appropriate models for risk scenarios, and again to use Bayesian hierarchical models to explore the necessarily complex modelling of four dimensional agricultural data. The specific objectives of the research were to develop a method for the calculation of credible intervals for the point estimates of Bayesian networks; to develop a model structure to incorporate all the experimental uncertainty associated with various constants thereby allowing the calculation of more credible credible intervals for a risk assessment; to model a single day’s data from the agricultural dataset which satisfactorily captured the complexities of the data; to build a model for several days’ data, in order to consider how the full data might be modelled; and finally to build a model for the full four dimensional dataset and to consider the timevarying nature of the contrast of interest, having satisfactorily accounted for possible spatial and temporal autocorrelations. This work forms five papers, two of which have been published, with two submitted, and the final paper still in draft. The first two objectives were met by recasting the risk assessments as directed, acyclic graphs (DAGs). In the first case, we elicited uncertainty for the conditional probabilities needed by the Bayesian net, incorporated these into a corresponding DAG, and used Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to find credible intervals, for all the scenarios and outcomes of interest. In the second case, we incorporated the experimental data underlying the risk assessment constants into the DAG, and also treated some of that data as needing to be modelled as an ‘errors-invariables’ problem [Fuller, 1987]. This illustrated a simple method for the incorporation of experimental error into risk assessments. In considering one day of the three-dimensional agricultural data, it became clear that geostatistical models or conditional autoregressive (CAR) models over the three dimensions were not the best way to approach the data. Instead CAR models are used with neighbours only in the same depth layer. This gave flexibility to the model, allowing both the spatially structured and non-structured variances to differ at all depths. We call this model the CAR layered model. Given the experimental design, the fixed part of the model could have been modelled as a set of means by treatment and by depth, but doing so allows little insight into how the treatment effects vary with depth. Hence, a number of essentially non-parametric approaches were taken to see the effects of depth on treatment, with the model of choice incorporating an errors-in-variables approach for depth in addition to a non-parametric smooth. The statistical contribution here was the introduction of the CAR layered model, the applied contribution the analysis of moisture over depth and estimation of the contrast of interest together with its credible intervals. These models were fitted using WinBUGS [Lunn et al., 2000]. The work in the fifth paper deals with the fact that with large datasets, the use of WinBUGS becomes more problematic because of its highly correlated term by term updating. In this work, we introduce a Gibbs sampler with block updating for the CAR layered model. The Gibbs sampler was implemented by Chris Strickland using pyMCMC [Strickland, 2010]. This framework is then used to consider five days data, and we show that moisture in the soil for all the various treatments reaches levels particular to each treatment at a depth of 200 cm and thereafter stays constant, albeit with increasing variances with depth. In an analysis across three spatial dimensions and across time, there are many interactions of time and the spatial dimensions to be considered. Hence, we chose to use a daily model and to repeat the analysis at all time points, effectively creating an interaction model of time by the daily model. Such an approach allows great flexibility. However, this approach does not allow insight into the way in which the parameter of interest varies over time. Hence, a two-stage approach was also used, with estimates from the first-stage being analysed as a set of time series. We see this spatio-temporal interaction model as being a useful approach to data measured across three spatial dimensions and time, since it does not assume additivity of the random spatial or temporal effects.

The identification and quantification of temperature-related mortality

The relationship between weather and mortality has been observed for centuries. Recently, studies on temperature-related mortality have become a popular topic as climate change continues. Most of the previous studies found that exposure to hot or cold temperature affects mortality. This study aims to address three research questions: 1. What is the overall effect of daily mean temperature variation on the elderly mortality in the published literature using a meta-analysis approach? 2. Does the association between temperature and mortality differ with age, sex, or socio-economic status in Brisbane? 3. How is the magnitude of the lag effects of the daily mean temperature on mortality varied by age and cause-of-death groups in Brisbane? In the meta-analysis, there was a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1ºC decrease during cold temperature intervals and a 2-5% increase for a 1ºC increment during hot temperature intervals among the elderly. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality, but no significant lag effects were observed for hot temperature intervals. In Brisbane, the harmful effect of high temperature (over 24ºC) on mortality appeared to be greater among the elderly than other age groups. The effect estimate among women was greater than among men. However, No evidence was found that socio-economic status modified the temperature-mortality relationship. The results of this research also show longer lag effects in cold days and shorter lag effects in hot days. For 3-day hot effects associated with 1°C increase above the threshold, the highest percent increases in mortality occurred among people aged 85 years or over (5.4% (95% CI: 1.4%, 9.5%)) compared with all age group (3.2% (95% CI: 0.9%, 5.6%)). The effect estimate among cardiovascular deaths was slightly higher than those among all-cause mortality. For overall 21-day cold effects associated with a 1°C decrease below the threshold, the percent estimates in mortality for people aged 85 years or over, and from cardiovascular diseases were 3.9% (95% CI: 1.9%, 6.0%) and 3.4% (95% CI: 0.9%, 6.0%), respectively compared with all age group (2.0% (95% CI: 0.7%, 3.3%)). Little research of this kind has been conducted in the Southern Hemisphere. This PhD research may contribute to the quantitative assessment of the overall impact, effect modification and lag effects of temperature variation on mortality in Australia and The findings may provide useful information for the development and implementation of public health policies to reduce and prevent temperature-related health problems.

The influence of service quality and trade show effectiveness on post-show purchase intention

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop and test an integrative services framework to investigate the role of perceived trade show effectiveness on overall trade show service outcome, conceptualised as the intention to purchase a related product after, rather than during, a show. Design/methodology/approach Drawing on the services marketing and trade show literature, the authors test a model of trade show effectiveness with data collected from 592 attendees at a major automotive trade show in a large metropolitan centre. Findings Results show that improving trade show visitors' perceived service quality positively affects visitor perceptions of trade show effectiveness. Furthermore, both trade show effectiveness and service quality directly influence future purchase intention. Research limitations/implications Employing a services theoretical framework to evaluate trade show visitor experiences provides an alternative to the traditional marketing communications approach. By viewing such visits as service encounters, managers must inevitably consider the effects of service quality and service outcomes in determining the likely success of their shows. The study primarily focuses on one large consumer show and therefore does not constitute a complete, nor necessarily representative, sample of the trade show industry. Originality/value The original contribution of the paper stems from the paucity of research conceptualising trade shows as services and the comparative lack of emphasis placed on visitors rather than exhibitors in the literature. The research not only has utility for trade show organisers but also provides necessary theory-based research in the trade show domain.

Ultrafine particle emission of waste incinerators and comparison to the exposure of urban citizens

On the basis of the growing interest on the impact of airborne particles on human exposure as well as the strong debate in Western countries on the emissions of waste incinerators, this work reviewed existing literature to: (i) show the emission factors of ultrafine particles (particles with a diameter less than 100 nm) of waste incinerators, and; (ii) assess the contribution of waste incinerators in terms of ultrafine particles to exposure and dose of people living in the surrounding areas of the plants in order to estimate eventual risks. The review identified only a limited number of studies measuring ultrafine particle emissions, and in general they report low particle number concentrations at the stack (the median value was equal to 5.5×103 part cm-3), in most cases higher than the outdoor background value. The lowest emissions were achieved by utilization of the bag-house filter which has an overall number-based filtration efficiency higher than 99%. Referring to reference case, the corresponding emission factor is equal to 9.1×1012 part min-1, that is lower than one single high-duty vehicle. Since the higher particle number concentrations found in the most contributing microenvironments to the exposure (indoor home, transportation, urban outdoor), the contribution of the waste incinerators to the daily dose can be considered as negligible.

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.

Observations on the distribution, daytime migrations and daily food intake rates of Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) in the Goggausee [Translation from: Carinthia II 165(85), 184-190, 1975]

The Goggausee, in spite of its modest depth (Zmax = 12 metres), shows meromictic properties: autumn and spring circulation extend only to a depth of 8 metres. The water layers below about 10 metres are constantly oxygen-free, the critical zone with at least intermittent oxygen loss lies at a depth of between 6 and 10 metres. A limnological excursion in May 1974 offered an opportunity to investigate the daily vertical migration of the species Chaoborus flavicans with reference to its food supply of zooplankton as well as the chance to carry out some preliminary experiments on its rate of food intake. Among the studied features were the planktonic depth distribution of Chaoborus flavicans and the food intake of Chaoborus larvae under experimental conditions.

Recalculated diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus), with a focus on quantifying predation on bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean

The diet and daily ration of the shortfin mako (Isurus oxyrinchus) in the northwest Atlantic were re-examined to determine whether fluctuations in prey abundance and availability are reflected in these two biological variables. During the summers of 2001 and 2002, stomach content data were collected from fishing tournaments along the northeast coast of the United States. These data were quantified by using four diet indices and were compared to index calculations from historical diet data collected from 1972 through 1983. Bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) were the predominant prey in the 1972–83 and 2001–02 diets, accounting for 92.6% of the current diet by weight and 86.9% of the historical diet by volume. From the 2001– 02 diet data, daily ration was estimated and it indicated that shortfin makos must consume roughly 4.6% of their body weight per day to fulfill energetic demands. The daily energetic requirement was broken down by using a calculated energy content for the current diet of 4909 KJ/kg. Based on the proportional energy of bluefish in the diet by weight, an average shortfin mako consumes roughly 500 kg of bluefish per year off the northeast coast of the United States. The results are discussed in relation to the potential effect of intense shortfin mako predation on bluefish abundance in the region.