The short-timescale behavior of glacial ice

Glaciers are often assumed to deform only at slow (i.e., glacial) rates. However, with the advent of high rate geodetic observations of ice motion, many of the intricacies of glacial deformation on hourly and daily timescales have been observed and quantified. This thesis explores two such short timescale processes: the tidal perturbation of ice stream motion and the catastrophic drainage of supraglacial meltwater lakes. Our investigation into the transmission length-scale of a tidal load represents the first study to explore the daily tidal influence on ice stream motion using three-dimensional models. Our results demonstrate both that the implicit assumptions made in the standard two-dimensional flow-line models are inherently incorrect for many ice streams, and that the anomalously large spatial extent of the tidal influence seen on the motion of some glaciers cannot be explained, as previously thought, through the elastic or viscoelastic transmission of tidal loads through the bulk of the ice stream. We then discuss how the phase delay between a tidal forcing and the ice stream’s displacement response can be used to constrain in situ viscoelastic properties of glacial ice. Lastly, for the problem of supraglacial lake drainage, we present a methodology for implementing linear viscoelasticity into an existing model for lake drainage. Our work finds that viscoelasticity is a second-order effect when trying to model the deformation of ice in response to a meltwater lake draining to a glacier’s bed. The research in this thesis demonstrates that the first-order understanding of the short-timescale behavior of naturally occurring ice is incomplete, and works towards improving our fundamental understanding of ice behavior over the range of hours to days.

The distribution and ages of regional lithologies in the lunar maria

A research program was designed (1) to map regional lithological units of the lunar surface based on measurements of spatial variations in spectral reflectance, and, (2) to establish the sequence of the formation of such lithological units from measurements of the accumulated affects of impacting bodies.

Spectral reflectance data were obtained by scanning luminance variations over the lunar surface at three wavelengths (0.4µ, 0.52µ, and 0.7µ). These luminance measurements were reduced to normalized spectral reflectance values relative to a standard area in More Serenitotis. The spectral type of each lunar area was identified from the shape of its reflectance spectrum. From these data lithological units or regions of constant color were identified. The maria fall into two major spectral classes: circular moria like More Serenitotis contain S-type or red material and thin, irregular, expansive maria like Mare Tranquillitatis contain T-type or blue material. Four distinct subtypes of S-type reflectances and two of T-type reflectances exist. As these six subtypes occur in a number of lunar regions, it is concluded that they represent specific types of material rather than some homologous set of a few end members.

The relative ages or sequence of formation of these more units were established from measurements of the accumulated impacts which have occurred since more formation. A model was developed which relates the integrated flux of particles which hove impacted a surface to the distribution of craters as functions of size and shape. Erosion of craters is caused chiefly by small bodies which produce negligible individual changes in crater shape. Hence the shape of a crater can be used to estimate the total number of small impacts that have occurred since the crater was formed. Relative ages of a surface can then be obtained from measurements of the slopes of the walls of the oldest craters formed on the surface. The results show that different maria and regions within them were emplaced at different times. An approximate absolute time scale was derived from Apollo 11 crystallization ages under an assumption of a constant rote of impacting for the last 4 x 10^9 yrs. Assuming, constant flux, the period of mare formation lasted from over 4 x 10^9 yrs to about 1.5 x 10^9 yrs ago.

A synthesis of the results of relative age measurements and of spectral reflectance mapping shows that (1) the formation of the lunar maria occurred in three stages; material of only one spectral type was deposited in each stage, (2) two distinct kinds of maria exist, each type distinguished by morphology, structure, gravity anomalies, time of formation, and spectral reflectance type, and (3) individual maria have complicated histories; they contain a variety of lithic units emplaced at different times.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Investigation of bulk indium antimonide as heterodyne detector for the submillimeter wavelength region

Bulk n-lnSb is investigated at a heterodyne detector for the submillimeter wavelength region. Two modes or operation are investigated: (1) the Rollin or hot electron bolometer mode (zero magnetic field), and (2) the Putley mode (quantizing magnetic field). The highlight of the thesis work is the pioneering demonstration or the Putley mode mixer at several frequencies. For example, a double-sideband system noise temperature of about 510K was obtained using a 812 GHz methanol laser for the local oscillator. This performance is at least a factor or 10 more sensitive than any other performance reported to date at the same frequency. In addition, the Putley mode mixer achieved system noise temperatures of 250K at 492 GHz and 350K at 625 GHz. The 492 GHz performance is about 50% better and the 625 GHz is about 100% better than previous best performances established by the Rollin-mode mixer. To achieve these results, it was necessary to design a totally new ultra-low noise, room-temperature preamp to handle the higher source impedance imposed by the Putley mode operation. This preamp has considerably less input capacitance than comparably noisy, ambient designs.

In addition to advancing receiver technology, this thesis also presents several novel results regarding the physics of n-lnSb at low temperatures. A Fourier transform spectrometer was constructed and used to measure the submillimeter wave absorption coefficient of relatively pure material at liquid helium temperatures and in zero magnetic field. Below 4.2K, the absorption coefficient was found to decrease with frequency much faster than predicted by Drudian theory. Much better agreement with experiment was obtained using a quantum theory based on inverse-Bremmstrahlung in a solid. Also the noise of the Rollin-mode detector at 4.2K was accurately measured and compared with theory. The power spectrum is found to be well fit by a recent theory of non- equilibrium noise due to Mather. Surprisingly, when biased for optimum detector performance, high purity lnSb cooled to liquid helium temperatures generates less noise than that predicted by simple non-equilibrium Johnson noise theory alone. This explains in part the excellent performance of the Rollin-mode detector in the millimeter wavelength region.

Again using the Fourier transform spectrometer, spectra are obtained of the responsivity and direct detection NEP as a function of magnetic field in the range 20-110 cm^-1. The results show a discernable peak in the detector response at the conduction electron cyclotron resonance frequency tor magnetic fields as low as 3 KG at bath temperatures of 2.0K. The spectra also display the well-known peak due to the cyclotron resonance of electrons bound to impurity states. The magnitude of responsivity at both peaks is roughly constant with magnet1c field and is comparable to the low frequency Rollin-mode response. The NEP at the peaks is found to be much better than previous values at the same frequency and comparable to the best long wavelength results previously reported. For example, a value NEP=4.5x10^-13/Hz^1/2 is measured at 4.2K, 6 KG and 40 cm^-1. Study of the responsivity under conditions of impact ionization showed a dramatic disappearance of the impurity electron resonance while the conduction electron resonance remained constant. This observation offers the first concrete evidence that the mobility of an electron in the N=0 and N=1 Landau levels is different. Finally, these direct detection experiments indicate that the excellent heterodyne performance achieved at 812 GHz should be attainable up to frequencies of at least 1200 GHz.

Death or taxes? The political economy of sanitation expenditure in nineteenth-century Britain

This thesis consists of three papers studying the relationship between democratic reform, expenditure on sanitation public goods and mortality in Britain in the second half of the nineteenth century. During this period decisions over spending on critical public goods such as water supply and sewer systems were made by locally elected town councils, leading to extensive variation in the level of spending across the country. This dissertation uses new historical data to examine the political factors determining that variation, and the consequences for mortality rates.

The first substantive chapter describes the spread of government sanitation expenditure, and analyzes the factors that determined towns' willingness to invest. The results show the importance of towns' financial constraints, both in terms of the available tax base and access to borrowing, in limiting the level of expenditure. This suggests that greater involvement by Westminster could have been very effective in expediting sanitary investment. There is little evidence, however, that democratic reform was an important driver of greater expenditure.

Chapter 3 analyzes the effect of extending voting rights to the poor on government public goods spending. A simple model predicts that the rich and the poor will desire lower levels of public goods expenditure than the middle class, and so extensions of the right to vote to the poor will be associated with lower spending. This prediction is tested using plausibly exogenous variation in the extent of the franchise. The results strongly support the theoretical prediction: expenditure increased following relatively small extensions of the franchise, but fell once more than approximately 50% of the adult male population held the right to vote.

Chapter 4 tests whether the sanitary expenditure was effective in combating the high mortality rates following the Industrial Revolution. The results show that increases in urban expenditure on sanitation-water supply, sewer systems and streets-was extremely effective in reducing mortality from cholera and diarrhea.

Neutron-neutron scattering parameters from the ^3He(d,t)2p and ^3H(d,^3He)2n reactions

The energy spectra of tritons and Helium-3 nuclei from the reactions ³He(d,t)2p, ³H(d,³He)2n, ³He(d,³He)pn, and ³H(d,t)pn were measured between 6° and 20° at a bombarding energy of 10.9 MeV. An upper limit of 5 μb/sr. was obtained for producing a bound di-neutron at 6° and 7.5°. The ³He(d,t)2p and ³H(d,³He)2n data, together with previous measurements at higher energies, have been used to investigate whether one can unambiguously extract information on the two-nucleon system from these three-body final state reactions. As an aid to these theoretical investigations, Born approximation calculations were made employing realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials and an antisymmetrized final state wave function for the five-particle system. These calculations reproduce many of the features observed in the experimental data and indicate that the role of exchange processes cannot be ignored. The results show that previous attempts to obtain information on the neutron-neutron scattering length from the ³H(d,³He)2n reaction may have seriously overestimated the precision that could be attained.