Probability Theory. Stochastic Processes And Their Applications Probabilistic Analysis Of Some Queueing And Inventory Models

In this thesis we attempt to make a probabilistic analysis of some physically realizable, though complex, storage and queueing models. It is essentially a mathematical study of the stochastic processes underlying these models. Our aim is to have an improved understanding of the behaviour of such models, that may widen their applicability. Different inventory systems with randon1 lead times, vacation to the server, bulk demands, varying ordering levels, etc. are considered. Also we study some finite and infinite capacity queueing systems with bulk service and vacation to the server and obtain the transient solution in certain cases. Each chapter in the thesis is provided with self introduction and some important references

Development of thermo-analytical prediction and classification models for food in thermal devices using a multi sensor system and artificial neural networks

Die thermische Verarbeitung von Lebensmitteln beeinflusst deren Qualität und ernährungsphysiologischen Eigenschaften. Im Haushalt ist die Überwachung der Temperatur innerhalb des Lebensmittels sehr schwierig. Zudem ist das Wissen über optimale Temperatur- und Zeitparameter für die verschiedenen Speisen oft unzureichend. Die optimale Steuerung der thermischen Zubereitung ist maßgeblich abhängig von der Art des Lebensmittels und der äußeren und inneren Temperatureinwirkung während des Garvorgangs. Das Ziel der Arbeiten war die Entwicklung eines automatischen Backofens, der in der Lage ist, die Art des Lebensmittels zu erkennen und die Temperatur im Inneren des Lebensmittels während des Backens zu errechnen. Die für die Temperaturberechnung benötigten Daten wurden mit mehreren Sensoren erfasst. Hierzu kam ein Infrarotthermometer, ein Infrarotabstandssensor, eine Kamera, ein Temperatursensor und ein Lambdasonde innerhalb des Ofens zum Einsatz. Ferner wurden eine Wägezelle, ein Strom- sowie Spannungs-Sensor und ein Temperatursensor außerhalb des Ofens genutzt. Die während der Aufheizphase aufgenommen Datensätze ermöglichten das Training mehrerer künstlicher neuronaler Netze, die die verschiedenen Lebensmittel in die entsprechenden Kategorien einordnen konnten, um so das optimale Backprogram auszuwählen. Zur Abschätzung der thermische Diffusivität der Nahrung, die von der Zusammensetzung (Kohlenhydrate, Fett, Protein, Wasser) abhängt, wurden mehrere künstliche neuronale Netze trainiert. Mit Ausnahme des Fettanteils der Lebensmittel konnten alle Komponenten durch verschiedene KNNs mit einem Maximum von 8 versteckten Neuronen ausreichend genau abgeschätzt werden um auf deren Grundlage die Temperatur im inneren des Lebensmittels zu berechnen. Die durchgeführte Arbeit zeigt, dass mit Hilfe verschiedenster Sensoren zur direkten beziehungsweise indirekten Messung der äußeren Eigenschaften der Lebensmittel sowie KNNs für die Kategorisierung und Abschätzung der Lebensmittelzusammensetzung die automatische Erkennung und Berechnung der inneren Temperatur von verschiedensten Lebensmitteln möglich ist.

Software Development Life Cycles and process models

This presentation describes the evolution of SDLCs from the first formally proposed linear models including, the Waterfall (Royce 1970) through to iterative prototyping models (Spiral and Win-Win Spiral) and incremental, iterative models used in Agile Methods. We discuss the problems iinherent in ech prpoosal and how successive models attempt to solve them.

Software Development Life Cycles and Process Models

This presentation describes the evolution of Software Development Lifecycles (SDLCs) from the first formally proposed linear models including, the Waterfall (Royce 1970) through to iterative prototyping models (Spiral and Win-Win Spiral) and incremental, iterative models used in Agile Methods. We discuss the problems iinherent in each prpoosal and how successive models attempt to solve them.

Los equipos de orientación del sector : funciones y modelos de intervención = External guidance services : functions and intervention models.

Resumen basado en el del autor

Monitoring changes in precipitation and radiative energy using satellite data and climate models

Current changes in the tropical hydrological cycle, including water vapour and precipitation, are presented over the period 1979-2008 based on a diverse suite of observational datasets and atmosphere-only climate models. Models capture the observed variability in tropical moisture while reanalyses cannot. Observed variability in precipitation is highly dependent upon the satellite instruments employed and only cursory agreement with model simulations, primarily relating to the interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. All datasets display a positive relationship between precipitation and surface temperature but with a large spread. The tendency for wet, ascending regions to become wetter at the expense of dry, descending regimes is in general reproduced. Finally, the frequency of extreme precipitation is shown to rise with warming in the observations and for the model ensemble mean but with large spread in the model simulations. The influence of the Earth’s radiative energy balance in relation to changes in the tropical water cycle are discussed

Simulating SOC changes in 11 land use change chronosequences from the Brazilian Amazon with RothC and Century models

Land use and land cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon have major implications for regional and global carbon (C) cycling. Cattle pasture represents the largest single use (about 70%) of this once-forested land in most of the region. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the RothC and Century models at estimating soil organic C (SOC) changes under forest-to-pasture conditions in the Brazilian Amazon. We used data from 11 site-specific 'forest to pasture' chronosequences with the Century Ecosystem Model (Century 4.0) and the Rothamsted C Model (RothC 26.3). The models predicted that forest clearance and conversion to well managed pasture would cause an initial decline in soil C stocks (0-20 cm depth), followed in the majority of cases by a slow rise to levels exceeding those under native forest. One exception to this pattern was a chronosequence in Suia-Missu, which is under degraded pasture. In three other chronosequences the recovery of soil C under pasture appeared to be only to about the same level as under the previous forest. Statistical tests were applied to determine levels of agreement between simulated SOC stocks and observed stocks for all the sites within the 11 chronosequences. The models also provided reasonable estimates (coefficient of correlation = 0.8) of the microbial biomass C in the 0-10 cm soil layer for three chronosequences, when compared with available measured data. The Century model adequately predicted the magnitude and the overall trend in delta C-13 for the six chronosequences where measured 813 C data were available. This study gave independent tests of model performance, as no adjustments were made to the models to generate outputs. Our results suggest that modelling techniques can be successfully used for monitoring soil C stocks and changes, allowing both the identification of current patterns in the soil and the projection of future conditions. Results were used and discussed not only to evaluate soil C dynamics but also to indicate soil C sequestration opportunities for the Brazilian Amazon region. Moreover, modelling studies in these 'forest to pasture' systems have important applications, for example, the calculation of CO, emissions from land use change in national greenhouse gas inventories. (0 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Methods for comparing and constraining models of dendritic spines

Physiological evidence using Infrared Video Microscopy during the uncaging of glutamate has proven the existence of excitable calcium ion channels in spine heads, highlighting the need for reliable models of spines. In this study we compare the three main methods of simulating excitable spines: Baer & Rinzel's Continuum (B&R) model, Coombes' Spike-Diffuse-Spike (SDS) model and paired cable and ion channel equations (Cable model). Tests are done to determine how well the models approximate each other in terms of speed and heights of travelling waves. Significant quantitative differences are found between the models: travelling waves in the SDS model in particular are found to travel at much lower speeds and sometimes much higher voltages than in the Cable or B&R models. Meanwhile qualitative differences are found between the B&R and SDS models over realistic parameter ranges. The cause of these differences is investigated and potential solutions proposed.

Comparison of subspace and ARX models of a waveguide's terahertz transient response after optimal wavelet filtering

A quasi-optical deembedding technique for characterizing waveguides is demonstrated using wide-band time-resolved terahertz spectroscopy. A transfer function representation is adopted for the description of the signal in the input and output port of the waveguides. The time-domain responses were discretized and the waveguide transfer function was obtained through a parametric approach in the z-domain after describing the system with an AutoRegressive with eXogenous input (ARX), as well as with a state-space model. Prior to the identification procedure, filtering was performed in the wavelet domain to minimize both signal distortion, as well as the noise propagating in the ARX and subspace models. The optimal filtering procedure used in the wavelet domain for the recorded time-domain signatures is described in detail. The effect of filtering prior to the identification procedures is elucidated with the aid of pole-zero diagrams. Models derived from measurements of terahertz transients in a precision WR-8 waveguide adjustable short are presented.

Intelligent agents and distributed models for cooperative task support

Purpose – To describe some research done, as part of an EPSRC funded project, to assist engineers working together on collaborative tasks. Design/methodology/approach – Distributed finite state modelling and agent techniques are used successfully in a new hybrid self-organising decision making system applied to collaborative work support. For the particular application, analysis of the tasks involved has been performed and these tasks are modelled. The system then employs a novel generic agent model, where task and domain knowledge are isolated from the support system, which provides relevant information to the engineers. Findings – The method is applied in the despatch of transmission commands within the control room of The National Grid Company Plc (NGC) – tasks are completed significantly faster when the system is utilised. Research limitations/implications – The paper describes a generic approach and it would be interesting to investigate how well it works in other applications. Practical implications – Although only one application has been studied, the methodology could equally be applied to a general class of cooperative work environments. Originality/value – One key part of the work is the novel generic agent model that enables the task and domain knowledge, which are application specific, to be isolated from the support system, and hence allows the method to be applied in other domains.

A review and implementation of swarm pattern formation and transformation models

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to address a classic problem – pattern formation identified by researchers in the area of swarm robotic systems – and is also motivated by the need for mathematical foundations in swarm systems. Design/methodology/approach: The work is separated out as inspirations, applications, definitions, challenges and classifications of pattern formation in swarm systems based on recent literature. Further, the work proposes a mathematical model for swarm pattern formation and transformation. Findings: A swarm pattern formation model based on mathematical foundations and macroscopic primitives is proposed. A formal definition for swarm pattern transformation and four special cases of transformation are introduced. Two general methods for transforming patterns are investigated and a comparison of the two methods is presented. The validity of the proposed models, and the feasibility of the methods investigated are confirmed on the Traer Physics and Processing environment. Originality/value: This paper helps in understanding the limitations of existing research in pattern formation and the lack of mathematical foundations for swarm systems. The mathematical model and transformation methods introduce two key concepts, namely macroscopic primitives and a mathematical model. The exercise of implementing the proposed models on physics simulator is novel.