(Table 1) Concentration of pollutants in hair of East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

Hair sampled from 96 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the periods 1892-1927 and 1988-2009 was analyzed for cortisol as a proxy to investigate temporal patterns of environmental stress. Cortisol concentration was independent of sex and age, and was found at significantly higher (p<0.001) concentrations in historical hair samples (1892-1927; n = 8) relative to recent ones (1988-2009; n = 88). In addition, there was a linear time trend in cortisol concentration of the recent samples (p< 0.01), with an annual decrease of 2.7%. The recent hair samples were also analyzed for major bioaccumulative, persistent organic pollutants (POPs). There were no obvious POP related time trends or correlations between hair cortisol and hair POP concentrations. Thus, polar bear hair appears to be a relatively poor indicator of the animal's general POP load in adipose tissue. However, further investigations are warranted to explore the reasons for the temporal decrease found in the bears' hair cortisol levels.

Average fluorescence and dissolved iron and Fe-binding ligand characteristics during POLARSTERN expedition ANT-XXIV/3 in 2008

Organic complexation of dissolved iron (dFe) was investigated in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean in order to understand the distribution of Fe over the whole water column. The total concentration of dissolved organic ligands ([Lt]) measured by voltammetry ranged between 0.54 and 1.84 nEq of M Fe whereas the conditional binding strength (K') ranged between 10**21.4 and 10**22.8. For the first time, trends in Fe-organic complexation were observed in an ocean basin by examining the ratio ([Lt]/[dFe]), defined as the organic ligand concentration divided by the dissolved Fe concentration. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio indicates the saturation state of the natural ligands with Fe; a ratio near 1 means saturation of the ligands leading to precipitation of Fe. Reversely, high ratios mean Fe depletion and show a high potential for Fe solubilisation. In surface waters where phytoplankton is present low dissolved Fe and high variable ligand concentrations were found. Here the [Lt]/[dFe] ratio was on average 4.4. It was especially high (5.6-26.7) in the HNLC (High Nutrient, Low Chlorophyll) regions, where Fe was depleted. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio decreased with depth due to increasing dissolved Fe concentrations and became constant below 450 m, indicating a steady state between ligand and Fe. Relatively low [Lt]/[dFe] ratios (between 1.1 and 2.7) existed in deep water north of the Southern Boundary, facilitating Fe precipitation. The [Lt]/[dFe] ratio increased southwards from the Southern Boundary on the Zero Meridian and from east to west in the Weddell Gyre due to changes both in ligand characteristics and in dissolved iron concentration. High [Lt]/[dFe] ratio expresses Fe depletion versus ligand production in the surface. The decrease with depth reflects the increase of [dFe] which favours scavenging and (co-) precipitation, whereas a horizontal increase in the deep waters results from an increasing distance from Fe sources. This increase in the [Lt]/[dFe] ratio at depth shows the very resistant nature of the dissolved organic ligands.

Calcareous dinoflagellates in Maastrichtian to early Miocene sediments of DSDP Hole 39-357

The evolution of calcareous dinoflagellate communities has been investigated for the latest Cretaceous to earliest Neogene interval of the mid-latitude South Atlantic. In doing so, the response of calcareous dinoflagellates to Cenozoic climatic change has been addressed for the first time. Trends in species composition and distribution patterns of wall types indicate significant changes which correlate with major palaeoenvironmental modifications. A first major shift concerning the relative abundance of species and wall types occurred across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. The associations remained stable during the entire Paleocene and Eocene. Only in the late Eocene did a dramatic decrease in temperature cause a slight diversification. A second major shift in the abundance patterns occurred across the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. The early Miocene warming is possibly reflected in the distinct increase in relative abundance of one species. The assemblages of calcareous dinoflagellates evidently react to major climatic changes during the Cenozoic. These poorly investigated organisms may thus provide an important contribution to the understanding of earth's palaeoclimatic evolution.

Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

Como estamos indo? Estudo do deslocamento ativo no Brasil

Introdução: O deslocamento ativo tem estreita relação com problemas de saúde pública da atualidade e sua promoção pode contribuir para melhorias quanto à mobilidade urbana, estado de saúde e proteção do meio ambiente. Entretanto, a maior parte das pesquisas sobre o tema tem sido desenvolvida em países de renda alta. A presente tese busca ampliar a investigação sobre o deslocamento ativo no Brasil. Objetivos: i) Descrever a frequência, a distribuição e a variação temporal de indicadores do deslocamento ativo em populações brasileiras; ii) Avaliar o impacto de mudanças no padrão de transporte da população sobre o deslocamento ativo, o tempo sedentário e desfechos de saúde em populações brasileiras. Métodos: Tese composta por sete manuscritos. O primeiro apresenta revisão sistemática de estudos com informações sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo na América Latina e Caribe; o segundo descreve estimativas representativas da população brasileira sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo para o trabalho; o terceiro e o quarto descrevem a frequência e tendência temporal do deslocamento ativo na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo (ciclistas e escolares); o quinto discute a questão da mobilidade urbana e do direito à cidade em São Paulo; o sexto e o sétimo avaliam o impacto de mudanças no padrão de mobilidade da metrópole paulistana sobre a prática de deslocamento ativo, tempo não-ativo de deslocamento e tempo total de deslocamento, bem como sobre a poluição do ar e saúde da população. Resultados: A prevalência mediana de deslocamento ativo encontrada em diferentes locais do Brasil foi de 12 por cento , variando entre 5,1 por cento em Palmas (Tocantins) a 58,9 por cento em Rio Claro (São Paulo) (Manuscrito 1). Um terço dos homens e das mulheres desloca-se a pé ou de bicicleta de casa para o trabalho no país. Em ambos os sexos, esta proporção diminui com o aumento da renda e da escolaridade e é maior entre os mais jovens, entre os que residem em áreas rurais, e na região Nordeste. Em todas as regiões metropolitanas estudadas, o quinto das pessoas de menor renda apresenta uma maior frequência de deslocamento ativo (Manuscrito 2). Entre os anos de 2007 e 2012, observamos redução no número de ciclistas em São Paulo e diferenças expressivas na proporção de ciclistas entre homens e mulheres (9,7 por mil habitantes versus 1,4 por mil habitantes em 2012) (Manuscrito 3). Também verificamos uma queda na proporção de crianças que se deslocam ativamente para a escola entre os anos de 1997 e 2012 (Manuscrito 4). O cenário epidemiológico do deslocamento ativo no país é resultante da disputa pelo direito à cidade, com repercussões na transição de mobilidade humana e na saúde e qualidade de vida da população, como podemos observar no caso de São Paulo (Manuscrito 5). A construção de uma São Paulo mais inclusiva, com menores distâncias para os deslocamentos cotidianos e maior frequência de caminhada e bicicleta, levaria à substancial redução do tempo total e do tempo sedentário despendidos nos deslocamentos, sem diminuir a duração do deslocamento ativo (Manuscrito 6). Traria também ganhos à saúde da população, sobretudo pelo aumento da prática de atividade física e da redução da poluição do ar (Manuscrito 7). Conclusões: A prática de deslocamento ativo no Brasil apresenta marcadas diferenças segundo região e características sociodemográficas. De um modo geral, esta prática vem diminuindo no país, o que deve contribuir negativamente para a saúde da população. A promoção de cidades mais inclusivas e compactas, com o favorecimento a modos ativos de deslocamento, pode contribuir para reverter esta preocupante tendência.

Changes in children’s body mass index between 2006/07 and 2013/14 National Child Measurement Programme

This report is the sixth in a series of annual reports which use National Child Measurement Programme (NCMP) data to examine changes in children’s body mass index (BMI) that have taken place since 2006/07. It explores trends in obesity, overweight, excess weight and underweight prevalence, as well as changes in mean BMI over time. Trends within different socioeconomic and ethnic groups are also examined to determine whether existing health inequalities are widening or becoming smaller.

Co-creation of tourism experience: attention, involvement and memorability

Tese de Doutoramento, Turismo, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016

Trends in overweight and obesity levels in Geneva: time for optimism?

Background/Introduction: ln Switzerland, most trends in overweight and obesity levels have been assessed using reported data, a methodology which is prone to reporting bias. ln this study, we aimed at assessing trends in overweight and obesity levels using objectively measured data. Methods: We used independent cross-sectional data collected between 2005 and 2011 by the Bus Santé study on representative samples of the Geneva population. Trends were assessed overall and according to different characteristics of the participants. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25 and 29.9 kg/m2 and >=30 kg/m2, respectively. Results: Data from 4093 participants (2012 men) was assessed. Mean BMI was 25.2 ± 4.3 kg/m2 (mean ±standard deviation) in 2005 and 25.4 ± 4.3 in 2011 (p for trend using linear regression=0.98). For men, mean BMI was 26.3 ± 3.8 kg/m2 in 2005 and 26.1 ± 3.7 in 2011 (p for trend=0.37); for women, the corresponding values were 24.3 ± 4.6 and 24.7 ± 4.7 kg/m2 (p for trend=0.42). Overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 32.2% and 13.3%, respectively, in 2005 and 33.6% and 13.7% in 2011 (p for trend using polytomous logistic regression adjusting for gender, age and smoking=0.49 and 0.94 for overweight and obesity, respectively). For men, prevalence of overweight and obesity was 45.9% and 12.2% in 2005 and 42.1 % and 14.6% in 2011 (P for trend=0.03 for overweight and 0.81 for obesity); for women, the corresponding values were 20.4% and 14.2% in 2005 and 25.4% and 12.9% in 2011 (p for trend=0.13 for overweight and 0.99 for obesity). Conclusion: Overweight and obesity levels appear to have levelled in Geneva, with a possible decrease in overweight levels in men. These favorable findings should be replicated in other geographical locations.

Smoking trends in Switzerland, 1992-2007: a time for optimism?

Objective To assess trends in smoking status according to gender, age and educational level in the adult Swiss population. Methods Four national health interview surveys conducted between 1992 and 2007 in representative samples of the Swiss population. Results The prevalence of current smokers increased between 1992 and 1997, decreasing thereafter. In 2007, the prevalence of current smokers (32.0% of men and 23.8% of women) was lower than in 1992 (38.4% and 26.7%, respectively). Whereas the prevalence of current + former smoking decreased from 64.5% in 1992 to 59.3% in 2007 among men, it was similar among women during the same period (44.0% in 1992 and 43.9% in 2007). The prevalence of current + former smokers decreased from 47.2% in 1992 to 46.3% in 2007 in the lower education group (no education + primary), from 54.8% to 52.9% in subjects with secondary level education, and from 55.4% to 48.7% in subjects with university level education. The prevalence of current smokers decreased in all age groups. Finally, the amount of cigarette equivalents smoked per day decreased, but the amount of non-cigarette tobacco (alone or in combination with cigarettes) increased for both sexes. Conclusion The prevalence of smoking has been decreasing in the Swiss population, for both sexes and for most age groups and educational levels between 1992 and 2007. The health effects of the change in type of tobacco products consumed await further investigation.

Trends and determinants of time in bed in Geneva, Switzerland

STUDY OBJECTIVES: There is limited information regarding sleep duration and determinants in Switzerland. We aimed to assess the trends and determinants of time in bed as a proxy for sleep duration in the Swiss canton of Geneva. METHODS: Data from repeated, independent cross-sectional representative samples of adults (≥ 18 years) of the Geneva population were collected between 2005 and 2011. Self-reported time in bed, education, monthly income, and nationality were assessed by questionnaire. RESULTS: Data from 3,853 participants (50% women, 51.7 ± 10.9 years) were analyzed. No significant trend was observed between 2005 and 2011 regarding time in bed or the prevalence of short (≤ 6 h/day) and long (> 9 h/day) time in bed. Elderly participants reported a longer time in bed (year-adjusted mean ± standard error: 7.67 ± 0.02, 7.82 ± 0.03, and 8.41 ± 0.04 h/day for 35-50, 50-65, and 65+ years, respectively, p < 0.001), while shorter time in bed was reported by non-Swiss participants (7.77 ± 0.03 vs. 7.92 ± 0.03 h/day for Swiss nationals, p < 0.001), participants with higher education (7.92 ± 0.02 for non-university vs. 7.74 ± 0.03 h/day for university, p < 0.001) or higher income (8.10 ± 0.04, 7.84 ± 0.03, and 7.70 ± 0.03 h/day for < 5,000 SFr; 5,000-9,500 SFr, and > 9,500 SFr, respectively, p < 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted polytomous logistic regression showed short and long time in bed to be positively associated with obesity and negatively associated with income. CONCLUSION: In a Swiss adult population, sleep duration as assessed by time in bed did not change significantly between 2005 and 2011. Both clinical and socioeconomic factors influence time in bed.

Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

CHARACTERIZATION OF THE BRAZPD II COHORT AND DESCRIPTION OF TRENDS IN PERITONEAL DIALYSIS OUTCOME ACROSS TIME PERIODS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)