Remuneration Structure Definition for Distributed Generation Units and Demand Response Participants Aggregation

The implementation of competitive electricity markets has changed the consumers’ and distributed generation position power systems operation. The use of distributed generation and the participation in demand response programs, namely in smart grids, bring several advantages for consumers, aggregators, and system operators. The present paper proposes a remuneration structure for aggregated distributed generation and demand response resources. A virtual power player aggregates all the resources. The resources are aggregated in a certain number of clusters, each one corresponding to a distinct tariff group, according to the economic impact of the resulting remuneration tariff. The determined tariffs are intended to be used for several months. The aggregator can define the periodicity of the tariffs definition. The case study in this paper includes 218 consumers, and 66 distributed generation units.

Double coverage and demand for health care: Evidence from quantile regression

An individual experiences double coverage when he bene ts from more than one health insurance plan at the same time. This paper examines the impact of such supplementary insurance on the demand for health care services. Its novelty is that within the context of count data modelling and without imposing restrictive parametric assumptions, the analysis is carried out for di¤erent points of the conditional distribution, not only for its mean location. Results indicate that moral hazard is present across the whole outcome distribution for both public and private second layers of health insurance coverage but with greater magnitude in the latter group. By looking at di¤erent points we unveil that stronger double coverage e¤ects are smaller for high levels of usage. We use data for Portugal, taking advantage of particular features of the public and private protection schemes on top of the statutory National Health Service. By exploring the last Portuguese Health Survey, we were able to evaluate their impacts on the consumption of doctor visi

On the identification of monetary (and other) shocks

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we construct a DSGE model which spells out explicitly the instrumentation of monetary policy. The interest rate is determined every period depending on the supply and demand for reserves which in turn are affected by fundamental shocks: unforeseeable changes in cash withdrawal, autonomous factors, technology and government spending. Unexpected changes in the monetary conditions of the economy are interpreted as monetary shocks. We show that these monetary shocks have the usual effects on economic activity without the need of imposing additional frictions as limited participation in asset markets or sticky prices. Second, we show that this view of monetary policy may have important consequences for empirical research. In the model, the contemporaneous correlations between interest rates, prices and output are due to the simultaneous effect of all fundamental shocks. We provide an example where these contemporaneous correlations may be misinterpreted as a Taylor rule. In addition, we use the sign of the impact responses of all shocks on output, prices and interest rates derived from the model to identify the sources of shocks in the data.

Price Transmission and Effects of Exchange Rates on Domestic Commodity Prices via Offshore and Currency Hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result.

Control of schistosomiasis mansoni in ravena (Sabará, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil) through Water supply and quadrennial treatments

In this study, the results obtained in a control programme of schistosomiasis in Ravena (Sabará, Minas Gerais) between 1980 and 1992 are evaluated. Control measures used in this programme were: specific treatment of the people infected with Schistosoma mansoni at four year-intervals (1980/84/88) and the supply of tap water to 90% of the residences in 1980. A significant reduction of the prevalence (36.7% to 11.5%, p < 0.05) and of the intensity of the infection (228.9 eggs per gram of feces (epg), s = 3.7 to 60.3 epg, s = 3.5, p < 0.05) was observed. No cases of the severe form of the disease were diagnosed in the area. Factors independently associated with the infection were in 1980 daily sand extraction and the lack of tap water in residences and in 1992 daily sand extraction and fishing and weekly swimming. Concluding, the supply of tap water together with quadrennial treatments significantly diminished both the prevalence and intensity of the S. mansoni infection, with the additional gain of persistent low indices even after four-year intervals between the treatments.

Macroeconomic shocks and the business cycle: evidence from a structural factor model

We use a dynamic factor model to provide a semi-structural representation for 101 quarterly US macroeconomic series. We find that (i) the US economy is well described by a number of structural shocks between two and six. Focusing on the four-shock specification, we identify, using sign restrictions, two non-policy shocks, demand and supply, and two policy shocks, monetary and fiscal. We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and inflation. (ii) Policy matters, Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian "cleansing" view of recessions.

Financial Repression in a Natural Experiment: Loan Allocation and the Change in the Usury Laws in 1714

If financial deepening aids economic growth, then financial repression should be harmful. We use a natural experiment – the change in the English usury laws in 1714 – to analyze the effects of interest rate restrictions. We use a sample of individual loan transactions to demonstrate how the reduction of the legal maximum rate of interest affected the supply and demand for credit. Average loan size and minimum loan size increased strongly, and access to credit worsened for those with little ‘social capital.’ While we have no direct evidence that loans were misallocated, the discontinuity in loan receipts makes this highly likely. We conclude that financial repression can undermine the positive effects of financial deepening.

An analisys of suply and Demand Conditions for Cape Verde´s Banana Industry

Michigan State University

Schooling supply and the structure of production: Evidence from US States 1950-1990

We find that over the period 1950-1990, US states absorbed increases in the supplyof schooling due to tighter compulsory schooling and child labor laws mostly throughwithin-industry increases in the schooling intensity of production. Shifts in the industrycomposition towards more schooling-intensive industries played a less important role.To try and understand this finding theoretically, we consider a free trade model withtwo goods/industries, two skill types, and many regions that produce a fixed rangeof differentiated varieties of the same goods. We find that a calibrated version ofthe model can account for shifts in schooling supply being mostly absorbed throughwithin-industry increases in the schooling intensity of production even if the elasticityof substitution between varieties is substantially higher than estimates in the literature.

The effects of employment uncertainty and wealth shocks on the labor supply and claiming behavior of older American workers

Unemployment rates in developed countries have recently reached levels not seenin a generation, and workers of all ages are facing increasing probabilities of losingtheir jobs and considerable losses in accumulated assets. These events likely increasethe reliance that most older workers will have on public social insurance programs,exactly at a time that public finances are suffering from a large drop in contributions.Our paper explicitly accounts for employment uncertainty and unexpectedwealth shocks, something that has been relatively overlooked in the literature, butthat has grown in importance in recent years. Using administrative and householdlevel data we empirically characterize a life-cycle model of retirement and claimingdecisions in terms of the employment, wage, health, and mortality uncertainty facedby individuals. Our benchmark model explains with great accuracy the strikinglyhigh proportion of individuals who claim benefits exactly at the Early RetirementAge, while still explaining the increased claiming hazard at the Normal RetirementAge. We also discuss some policy experiments and their interplay with employmentuncertainty. Additionally, we analyze the effects of negative wealth shocks on thelabor supply and claiming decisions of older Americans. Our results can explainwhy early claiming has remained very high in the last years even as the early retirementpenalties have increased substantially compared with previous periods, andwhy labor force participation has remained quite high for older workers even in themidst of the worse employment crisis in decades.

Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation

In this paper we explore the accumulation of capital in the presence oflimited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks, borrowing constraintsand endogenous labor supply. As in the exogenous labor supply case(e.g. Aiyagari 1994, Huggett 1997), we find that steady states arecharacterized with an interest rate smaller than the rate of timepreference. However,wealsofind that when labor supply is endogenous thepresence of uncertainty and a borrowing limit are not enough to giverise to aggregate precautionary savings .

Variability of root traits in common bean genotypes at different levels of phosphorus supply and ontogenetic stages

Selection of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) cultivars with enhanced root growth would be a strategy for increasing P uptake and grain yield in tropical soils, but the strong plasticity of root traits may compromise their inclusion in breeding programs. The aim of this study was to evaluate the magnitude of the genotypic variability of root traits in common bean plants at two ontogenetic stages and two soil P levels. Twenty-four common bean genotypes, comprising the four growth habits that exist in the species and two wild genotypes, were grown in 4 kg pots at two levels of applied P (20 and 80 mg kg-1) and harvested at the stages of pod setting and early pod filling. Root area and root length were measured by digital image analysis. Significant genotype × P level and genotype × harvest interactions in analysis of variance indicate that the genotypic variation of root traits depended on soil nutrient availability and the stage at which evaluation was made. Genotypes differed for taproot mass, basal and lateral root mass, root area and root length at both P levels and growth stages; differences in specific root area and length were small. Genotypes with growth habits II (upright indeterminate) and III (prostrate indeterminate) showed better adaptation to limited P supply than genotypes of groups I (determinate) and IV (indeterminate climbing). Between the two harvests, genotypes of groups II and III increased the mass of basal and lateral roots by 40 and 50 %, respectively, whereas genotypes of groups I and IV by only 7 and 19 %. Values of the genotypic coefficient of determination, which estimates the proportion of phenotypic variance resulting from genetic effects, were higher at early pod filling than at pod setting. Correlations between shoot mass and root mass, which could indicate indirect selection of root systems via aboveground biomass, were higher at early pod filling than at pod setting. The results indicate that selection for root traits in common bean genotypes should preferentially be performed at the early pod-filling stage.

Pheomelanin-based coloration and the ability to cope with variation in food supply and parasitism.

Although gene by environment interactions may play a key role in the maintenance of genetic polymorphisms, little is known about the ecological factors involved in these interactions. We investigated whether food supply and parasites can mediate covariation between the degree of adult pheomelanin-based coloration, a heritable trait, and offspring body mass in the tawny owl (Strix aluco). We swapped clutches between nests to allocate genotypes randomly among environments. Three weeks after hatching, we challenged the immune system of 80 unrelated nestlings with either a phytohemagglutinin (PHA) or a lipopolysaccharide, surrogates of alternative parasites, and then fed them ad lib. or food-restricted them during the following 6 days in the laboratory. Whatever the immune challenge, nestlings fed ad lib. converted food more efficiently into body mass when their biological mother was dark pheomelanic. In contrast, food-restricted nestlings challenged with PHA lost less body mass when their biological mother was pale pheomelanic. Nestling tawny owls born from differently melanic mothers thus show differing reaction norms relative to food availability and parasitism. This suggests that dark and pale pheomelanic owls reflect alternative adaptations to food availability and parasites, factors known to vary in space and time.

Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper