Crustacean zooplankton distribution patterns and their biomass as related to trophic indicators of 29 shallow subtropical lakes

A comparative limnological study was carried out to present a snapshot of crustacean zooplankton communities and their relations to environmental factors to test whether there is a consistent relationship between crustacean biomass and trophic indicators among lake groups with similar trophic conditions. The study lakes showed a wide range of trophic status, with total phosphorus (TP) ranging from 0.008 to 1.448mgL(-1), and chlorophyll a from 0.7 to 146.1 mu g L-1, respectively. About 38 species of Crustacea were found, of which Cladocera were represented by 25 taxa (20 genera), and Copepoda by 13 taxa (I I genera). The most common and dominant species were Bosmina coregoni, Moina micrura, Diaphanosoma brachyurum, Cyclops vicinus, Thermocyclops taihokuensis, Mesocyclops notius and Sinocalanus dorrii. Daphnia was rare in abundance. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that except for four species (D. hyalina, S. dorrii, C. vicinus and M. micrura), almost all the dominant species had the same preference for environmental factors. Temperature, predatory cyclopoids and planktivorous fishes seem to be the key factors determining species distribution. TP was a relatively better trophic indicator than chlorophyll a to predict crustacean biomass. Within the three groups of lakes, however, there was no consistent relationship between crustacean biomass and trophic indicators. The possible reason might be that top-down and bottom-up control on crustaceans vary with lake trophic state. The lack of significant negative correlation between crustacean biomass and chlorophyll a suggests that there was little control of phytoplankton biomass by macrozooplankton in these shallow subtropical lakes. (c) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Species richness in a riparian plant community along the banks of the Xiangxi River, the Three Gorges region

The distribution of vascular plant species richness along an altitudinal gradient and their relationships with environmental variables, including slope, aspect, bank (flooding) height, and river width of the Xiangxi River, Hubei Province, were examined. Total vascular plant species richness changed with elevation: it increased at lower elevations, reached a maximum in the midreaches and decreased thereafter. In particular, tree and herbaceous species richness were related to altitude. Correlation analysis (Kendall's tau) between species richness and environmental variables indicated that the change in species richness in the riparian zone was determined by riparian environmental factors and characteristics of regional vegetation distribution along the altitudinal gradient. The low species richness at lower elevations resulted from seasonal flooding and human activities - agriculture and fuel collection - and the higher. Species richness ill (he midreaches reflected transitional zones ill natural vegetation types that had had little disturbance. These results oil species distribution in the riparian community could he utilized as a reference for restoration efforts to improve water quality of the emerging reservoir resulting from the Three Gorges Hydroelectric Dam project.

Distribution of organic and reduced sulfur forms in marsh soils of coastal Louisiana

Soil samples from a Louisiana Barataria Basin brackish marshes were fractionated into acid-volatile sulfides (AVS), HCl-soluble sulfur, elemental sulfur, pyrite sulfur, ester-sulfate sulfur, and carbon-bonded sulfur. Inorganic sulfur composed 13% of total sulfur in brackish marsh soil with HCl-soluble sulfur representing 63–92% of the inorganic sulfur fraction. AVS represented less than 1% of the total sulfur pool. Pyrite sulfur and elemental sulfur together accounted for 8–33% of the inorganic sulfur pool. Organic sulfur, in the forms of ester-sulfate sulfur and carbon-bonded sulfur, was the most dominant pool representing the majority of total sulfur in brackish marsh. Results were compared to values reported for fresh and salt marshes. Reported inorganic sulfur fractions were greater in adjacent marshes, constituting 24% of total sulfur in salt marsh, and 22% in freshwater marshes. Along a salinity gradient, HCl-soluble sulfur represented 78–86% of the inorganic sulfur fraction in fresh, brackish, and salt marsh. Organic sulfur in the forms of ester-sulfate sulfur and carbon-bonded sulfur was the major constituent (76–87%) of total sulfur in all marshes. Reduced sulfur species, except elemental sulfur, increased seaward along the salinity gradient. Accumulation of reduced sulfur forms through sedimentation processes was significant in marsh energy flow in fresh, brackish and salt marshes.

Likelihood, entropy and species diversity; some comparisons in a Sumatran forest

In attempts to conserve the species diversity of trees in tropical forests, monitoring of diversity in inventories is essential. For effective monitoring it is crucial to be able to make meaningful comparisons between different regions, or comparisons of the diversity of a region at different times. Many species diversity measures have been defined, including the well-known abundance and entropy measures. All such measures share a number of problems in their effective practical use. However, probably the most problematic is that they cannot be used to meaningfully assess changes, since thay are only concerned with the number of species or the proportions of the population/sample which they constitute. A natural (though simplistic) model of a species frequency distribution is the multinomial distribution. It is shown that the likelihood analysis of samples from such a distribution are closely related to a number of entropy-type measures of diversity. Hence a comparison of the species distribution on two plots, using the multinomial model and likelihood methods, leads to generalised cross-entropy as the LRT test statistic of the null that the species distributions are the same. Data from 30 contiguous plots in a forest in Sumatra are analysed using these methods. Significance tests between all pairs of plots yield extremely low p-values, indicating strongly that it ought to been "Obvious" that the observed species distributions are different on different plots. In terms of how different the plots are, and how these differences vary over the whole study site, a display of the degrees of freedom of the test, (equivalent to the number of shared species) seems to be the most revealing indicator, as well as the simplest.

Unidirectional hybridization at a species' range boundary: implications for habitat tracking

Aim Introgressive hybridization between a locally rare species and a more abundant congener can drive population extinction via genetic assimilation, or the replacement of the rare species gene pool with that of the common species. To date, however, few studies have assessed the effects of such processes at the limits of species' distribution ranges. In this study, we have examined the potential for hybridization between range-edge populations of the wintergreen Pyrola minor and sympatric populations of Pyrola grandiflora. Location Qeqertarsuaq, Greenland and Churchill, Manitoba, Canada. Methods Genetic analysis of samples from Greenland and Canada was carried out using a combination of nuclear and chloroplast single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results Analysis of nuclear SNPs confirmed hybridization in populations of morphologically intermediate individuals, as well as revealing the existence of cryptic hybrids in ostensibly morphologically pure P. minor populations. Analysis of chloroplast SNPs revealed that this hybridization is unidirectional and suggests that hybrids originate via pollen swamping of P. minor by the more common P. grandiflora. Main conclusions Extensive unidirectional hybridization may lead to the extinction of peripheral populations of P. minor where the two species grow sympatrically. Extinction could occur as a result of genetic assimilation where F1s are fertile, or via the removal of unidirectionally pollinated sterile F1s, or by a combination of these processes. This could compromise the ability of species to respond to climate change via habitat tracking, although the final outcome of these processes may ultimately depend on the rate of global climate change and its effect on the species' distributions. © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes using Madagascar as an example. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar from 2000-2080 in three climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 hectares of forest cover for each species, and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each climate scenario. We interviewed natural forest restoration project managers and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species’ ranges, the overlap between species’ ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species’ ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha), avoidance of forest degradation (loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha), avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha), and establishment of forest on non-forested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that though forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened forest-restricted birds in Madagascar

The greatest common threat to birds in Madagascar has historically been from anthropogenic deforestation. During recent decades, global climate change is now also regarded as a significant threat to biodiversity. This study uses Maximum Entropy species distribution modeling to explore how potential climate change could affect the distribution of 17 threatened forest endemic bird species, using a range of climate variables from the Hadley Center's HadCM3 climate change model, for IPCC scenario B2a, for 2050. We explore the importance of forest cover as a modeling variable and we test the use of pseudo-presences drawn from extent of occurrence distributions. Inclusion of the forest cover variable improves the models and models derived from real-presence data with forest layer are better predictors than those from pseudo-presence data. Using real-presence data, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on the distribution of nine species. We could not predict the impact of climate change on eight species because of low numbers of occurrences. All nine species were predicted to experience reductions in their total range areas, and their maximum modeled probabilities of occurrence. In general, species range and altitudinal contractions follow the reductive trend of the Maximum presence probability. Only two species (Tyto soumagnei and Newtonia fanovanae) are expected to expand their altitude range. These results indicate that future availability of suitable habitat at different elevations is likely to be critical for species persistence through climate change. Five species (Eutriorchis astur, Neodrepanis hypoxantha, Mesitornis unicolor, Euryceros prevostii, and Oriola bernieri) are probably the most vulnerable to climate change. Four of them (E. astur, M. unicolor, E. prevostii, and O. bernieri) were found vulnerable to the forest fragmentation during previous research. Combination of these two threats in the future could negatively affect these species in a drastic way. Climate change is expected to act differently on each species and it is important to incorporate complex ecological variables into species distribution models.

The effects of past, present and future climate change on range-wide genetic diversity in northern North Atlantic marine species

It is now accepted that changes in the Earth’s climate are having a profound effect on the distributions of a wide variety of species. One aspect of these changes that has only recently received any attention, however, is their potential effect on levels of within-species genetic diversity. Theoretical, empirical and modelling studies suggest that the impact of trailing-edge population extirpation on range-wide intraspecific diversity will be most pronounced in species that harbour the majority of their genetic variation at low latitudes as a result of changes during the Quaternary glaciations. In the present review, I describe the historical factors that have determined current patterns of genetic variation across the ranges of Northern North Atlantic species, highlight the fact that the majority of these species do indeed harbour a disproportionate level of genetic diversity in rear-edge populations, and outline how combined species distribution modelling and genetic analyses can provide insights into the potential effects of climate change on their overall genetic diversity.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the Order Lagomorpha

Climate change during the last five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Biogeography, macroecology and species’ traits mediate competitive interactions in the order Lagomorpha

1. In addition to abiotic determinants, biotic factors, including competitive, interspecific interactions, limit species’ distributions. Environmental changes in human disturbance, land use and climate are predicted to have widespread impacts on interactions between species, especially in the order Lagomorpha due to the higher latitudes and more extreme environmental conditions they occupy.
2. We reviewed the published literature on interspecific interactions in the order Lagomorpha, and compared the biogeography, macroecology, phylogeny and traits of species known to interact with those of species with no reported interactions, to investigate how projected future environmental change may affect interactions and potentially alter species’ distributions.
3. Thirty-three lagomorph species have competitive interactions reported in the literature; the majority involve hares (Lepus sp.) or the eastern cottontail rabbit (Sylvilagus floridanus). Key regions for interactions are located between 30-50°N of the Equator, and include eastern Asia (southern Russia on the border of Mongolia) and North America (north western USA).
4. Closely related, large-bodied, similarly sized species occurring in regions of human-modified, typically agricultural landscapes, or at high elevations are significantly more likely to have reported competitive interactions than other lagomorph species.
5. We identify species’ traits associated with competitive interactions, and highlight some potential impacts that future environmental change may have on interspecific interactions. Our approach using bibliometric and biological data is widely applicable, and with relatively straightforward methodologies, can provide insights into interactions between species.
6. Our results have implications for predicting species’ responses to global change, and we advise that capturing, parameterizing and incorporating interspecific interactions into analyses (for example, species distribution modelling) may be more important than suggested by the literature.

A new statistical framework for the quantification of covariate associations with species distributions

Identifying processes that shape species geographical ranges is a prerequisite for understanding environmental change. Currently, species distribution modelling methods do not offer credible statistical tests of the relative influence of climate factors and typically ignore other processes (e.g. biotic interactions and dispersal limitation). We use a hierarchical model fitted with Markov Chain Monte Carlo to combine ecologically plausible niche structures using regression splines to describe unimodal but potentially skewed response terms. We apply spatially explicit error terms that account for (and may help identify) missing variables. Using three example distributions of European bird species, we map model results to show sensitivity to change in each covariate. We show that the overall strength of climatic association differs between species and that each species has considerable spatial variation in both the strength of the climatic association and the sensitivity to climate change. Our methods are widely applicable to many species distribution modelling problems and enable accurate assessment of the statistical importance of biotic and abiotic influences on distributions.

Bird diversity and environmental gradients in Britain:a test of the species-energy hypothesis

1. We tested the species diversity-energy hypothesis using the British bird fauna. This predicts that temperature patterns should match diversity patterns. We also tested the hypothesis that the mechanism operates directly through effects of temperature on thermoregulatory loads; this further predicts that seasonal changes in temperature cause matching changes in patterns of diversity, and that species' body mass is influential.

2. We defined four assemblages using migration status (residents or visitors) and season (summer or winter distribution). Records of species' presence/absence in a total of 2362, 10 x 10-km, quadrats covering most of Britain were used, together with a wide selection of habitat, topographic and seasonal climatic data.

3. We fitted a logistic regression model to each species' distribution using the environmental data. We then combined these individual species models mathematically to form a diversity model. Analysis of this composite model revealed that summer temperature was the factor most strongly associated with diversity.

4. Although the species-energy hypothesis was supported, the direct mechanism, predicting an important role for body mass and matching seasonal patterns of change between diversity and temperature, was not supported.

5. However, summer temperature is the best overall explanation for bird diversity patterns in Britain. It is a better predictor of winter diversity than winter temperature. Winter diversity is predicted more precisely from environmental factors than summer diversity.

6. Climate change is likely to influence the diversity of different areas to different extents; for resident species, low diversity areas may respond more strongly as climate change progresses. For winter visitors, higher diversity areas may respond more strongly, while summer visitors are approximately neutral.

Marine foundation species shifting ranges and genetic baselines

This thesis revealed the most importance factors shaping the distribution, abundance and genetic diversity of four marine foundation species. Environmental conditions, particularly sea temperatures, nutrient availability and ocean waves, played a primary role in shaping the spatial distribution and abundance of populations, acting on scales varying from tens of meters to hundreds of kilometres. Furthermore, the use of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with biological records of occurrence and high-resolution oceanographic data, allowed predicting species distributions across time. This approach highlighted the role of climate change, particularly when extreme temperatures prevailed during glacial and interglacial periods. These results, when combined with mtDNA and microsatellite genetic variation of populations allowed inferring for the influence of past range dynamics in the genetic diversity and structure of populations. For instance, the Last Glacial Maximum produced important shifts in species ranges, leaving obvious signatures of higher genetic diversities in regions where populations persisted (i.e., refugia). However, it was found that a species’ genetic pool is shaped by regions of persistence, adjacent to others experiencing expansions and contractions. Contradicting expectations, refugia seem to play a minor role on the re(colonization) process of previously eroded populations. In addition, the available habitat area for expanding populations and the inherent mechanisms of species dispersal in occupying available habitats were also found to be fundamental in shaping the distributions of genetic diversity. However, results suggest that the high levels of genetic diversity in some populations do not rule out that they may have experienced strong genetic erosion in the past, a process here named shifting genetic baselines. Furthermore, this thesis predicted an ongoing retraction at the rear edges and extinctions of unique genetic lineages, which will impoverish the global gene pool, strongly shifting the genetic baselines in the future.

Patterns of distribution in intertidal rocky shores: the role of grazing and competition in structuring communities

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Mar, Faculdade de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente, Universidade do Algarve, 2000

How historical and present climat conditions affected the distribution of the mediterranean whter shrew?:a phylogeographical and ecological approach

Tese de doutoramento, Biologia (Biologia Evolutiva), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2014