Modeling and mitigation of supply-demand mismatches

In this thesis, I develop analytical models to price the value of supply chain investments under demand uncer¬tainty. This thesis includes three self-contained papers. In the first paper, we investigate the value of lead-time reduction under the risk of sudden and abnormal changes in demand forecasts. We first consider the risk of a complete and permanent loss of demand. We then provide a more general jump-diffusion model, where we add a compound Poisson process to a constant-volatility demand process to explore the impact of sudden changes in demand forecasts on the value of lead-time reduction. We use an Edgeworth series expansion to divide the lead-time cost into that arising from constant instantaneous volatility, and that arising from the risk of jumps. We show that the value of lead-time reduction increases substantially in the intensity and/or the magnitude of jumps. In the second paper, we analyze the value of quantity flexibility in the presence of supply-chain dis- intermediation problems. We use the multiplicative martingale model and the "contracts as reference points" theory to capture both positive and negative effects of quantity flexibility for the downstream level in a supply chain. We show that lead-time reduction reduces both supply-chain disintermediation problems and supply- demand mismatches. We furthermore analyze the impact of the supplier's cost structure on the profitability of quantity-flexibility contracts. When the supplier's initial investment cost is relatively low, supply-chain disin¬termediation risk becomes less important, and hence the contract becomes more profitable for the retailer. We also find that the supply-chain efficiency increases substantially with the supplier's ability to disintermediate the chain when the initial investment cost is relatively high. In the third paper, we investigate the value of dual sourcing for the products with heavy-tailed demand distributions. We apply extreme-value theory and analyze the effects of tail heaviness of demand distribution on the optimal dual-sourcing strategy. We find that the effects of tail heaviness depend on the characteristics of demand and profit parameters. When both the profit margin of the product and the cost differential between the suppliers are relatively high, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing both the inventory level and the responsive capacity as demand uncertainty increases. In that case, however, both the optimal inventory level and the optimal responsive capacity decrease as the tail of demand becomes heavier. When the profit margin of the product is relatively high, and the cost differential between the suppliers is relatively low, it is optimal to buffer the mismatch risk by increasing the responsive capacity and reducing the inventory level as the demand uncertainty increases. In that case, how¬ever, it is optimal to buffer with more inventory and less capacity as the tail of demand becomes heavier. We also show that the optimal responsive capacity is higher for the products with heavier tails when the fill rate is extremely high.

MANAGING STRATEGIC CHANGE:New Business Models Applying Wireless Technology as a Source of Competitive Edge

The diffusion of mobile telephony began in 1971 in Finland, when the first car phones, called ARP1 were taken to use. Technologies changed from ARP to NMT and later to GSM. The main application of the technology, however, was voice transfer. The birth of the Internet created an open public data network and easy access to other types of computer-based services over networks. Telephones had been used as modems, but the development of the cellular technologies enabled automatic access from mobile phones to Internet. Also other wireless technologies, for instance Wireless LANs, were also introduced. Telephony had developed from analog to digital in fixed networks and allowed easy integration of fixed and mobile networks. This development opened a completely new functionality to computers and mobile phones. It also initiated the merger of the information technology (IT) and telecommunication (TC) industries. Despite the arising opportunity for firms' new competition the applications based on the new functionality were rare. Furthermore, technology development combined with innovation can be disruptive to industries. This research focuses on the new technology's impact on competition in the ICT industry through understanding the strategic needs and alternative futures of the industry's customers. The change speed inthe ICT industry is high and therefore it was valuable to integrate the DynamicCapability view of the firm in this research. Dynamic capabilities are an application of the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. As is stated in the literature, strategic positioning complements RBV. This theoretical framework leads theresearch to focus on three areas: customer strategic innovation and business model development, external future analysis, and process development combining these two. The theoretical contribution of the research is in the development of methodology integrating theories of the RBV, dynamic capabilities and strategic positioning. The research approach has been constructive due to the actual managerial problems initiating the study. The requirement for iterative and innovative progress in the research supported the chosen research approach. The study applies known methods in product development, for instance, innovation process in theGroup Decision Support Systems (GDSS) laboratory and Quality Function Deployment (QFD), and combines them with known strategy analysis tools like industry analysis and scenario method. As the main result, the thesis presents the strategic innovation process, where new business concepts are used to describe the alternative resource configurations and scenarios as alternative competitive environments, which can be a new way for firms to achieve competitive advantage in high-velocity markets. In addition to the strategic innovation process as a result, thestudy has also resulted in approximately 250 new innovations for the participating firms, reduced technology uncertainty and helped strategic infrastructural decisions in the firms, and produced a knowledge-bank including data from 43 ICT and 19 paper industry firms between the years 1999 - 2004. The methods presentedin this research are also applicable to other industries.

Oospores of Phytophthora infestans in soil provide an important new source of primary inoculum in Finland

Selostus: Perunaruton munaitiöt maassa ovat uusi merkittävä epidemian alkulähde Suomessa

Secondary metabolismin in Annonaceae: potencial source of drugs

Several species of Annona (Annonaceae) are used in traditional Mexican medicine by their anti-anxiety, anticonvulsant and tranquilizing properties. It has been reported that the alkaloids isolated from some species of the Annona have affinity to serotonergic 5-HT1A receptors and modulate dopaminergic transmission, which is involved in depressive disorders. In this review it is showed the results of the antidepressant-like effect of an alkaloid extract from the aerial parts of Annona cherimola (TA) in mice. The antidepressant-like effect was evaluated in the forced swimming test. To elucidate a possible mechanism of action, experiments of synergism with antidepressant drugs, such as imipramine (IMI), clomipramine (CLIMI), and fluoxetine (FLX), were carried out. The neurotransmitter content (DA: dopamine, 5HT: serotonin and its metabolites, HVA: homovanillic acid and 5HIAA:5-hydroxyindoleacetic) in the whole brain of mice were also determined by HPLC method. The results showed that repeated treatment with TA produced antidepressant-like effects in mice. This effect was not related to an increase in locomotor activity. Administration of TA facilitated the antidepressant effect of IMI and CLIMI as well as increased the turnover of DA and 5-HT. The alkaloids: 1,2-dimethoxy-5, 6.6 to 7-tetrahydro-4H-dibenzoquinoline-3,8,9,10-tetraol, anonaine, liriodenine, and nornuciferine were the main constituents of TA.

Trust as a source of sustainable competitive advantage

Tämän pro gradu -tutkielman tarkoituksena oli selvittää, miten luottamus vaikuttaa yrityksen kilpailuetuun. Luottamus on monitieteellinen ilmiö joka on saanut varsin paljon huomiota viimeaikaisissa tutkimuksissa. Myös jatkuvasti kehittyvässä yrityksen teoriassa yrityksen kilpailukyky ja sen pysyvyys ovat olleet mielenkiinnon kohteena. Luottamuksen ja kilpailuedun suhdetta on tästä huolimatta tutkittu vain vähän. Luottamus on nähty ikään kuin implisiittisesti yrityksen teoriassa, mutta ei eksplisiittisesti. Tämä tutkielma analysoi luottamuksen ja yrityksen kilpailukyvyn teorioita sekä näiden yhtymäkohtia. Tutkimuksen lopputuloksena esitellään nämä teoriat toisiinsa yhdistävä malli. Tutkielma on teoreettinen ja osin käsiteanalyyttinen, tutkimusote on syntetisoiva ja exploratiivinen, sillä se pyrkii osoittamaan aiemmin erillisten teorioiden yhtymäkohdat. Esiteltävä malli osoittaa, että luottamuksen ja yrityksen pysyvän kilpailuedun teoriat voidaan liittää toisiinsa, tärkeimmän yhdistävän tekijän ollessa yhteistyökyvykkyys. Luottamus on yhteistyökyvykkyyden välttämätön ennakkoedellytys. Kyky tehdä yhteistyötä on, paitsi jo itsessään erittäin tärkeä dynaaminen kyvykkyys, myös muiden dynaamisten kyvykkyyksien luomista ja hyväksikäyttöä edesauttava tekijä. Sikäli yhteistyö voidaan nähdä yrityksen teoriassa muut dynaamiset kyvykkyydet mahdollistavana meta-kyvykkyytenä ja luottamus sen edellytyksenä.

Ultrasound scan as a potential source of nosocomial and cross-infection: a literature review

AbstractThe authors review the main concepts regarding the importance of cleaning/disinfection of ultrasonography probes, aiming a better comprehension by practitioners and thus enabling strategies to establish a safe practice without compromising the quality of the examination and the operator productivity. In the context of biosafety, it is imperative to assume that contact with blood or body fluids represents a potential source of infection. Thus, in order to implement cleaning/disinfection practice, it is necessary to understand the principles of infection control, to consider the cost/benefit ratio of the measures to be implemented, and most importantly, to comprehend that such measures will not only benefit the health professional and the patient, but the society as a whole.

Improving the effectiveness of supply chain development work – an expert role perspective

This study focuses to the intersection of three sets of activities in a company: expert work, development work and supply chain management, SCM. Experts and expert work represent a set of individuals whose efficiency and impact this study is intended to improve, while development work defines the set of organizational activities to focus on. SCM as an expertise area acts as the platform on which this study is built. The study has two aims. Firstly, it aims to derive a model helping an SCM expert to increase the effectiveness of expert work in development tasks by understanding the encountered organizational situations and processes better, reflecting his/her past and future actions to organizational processes and selecting and adjusting the processes and contents of his/her work accordingly. Secondly, it aims to develop applicable approaches and methods to understand, evaluate and manage the organizational processes and situations in development work. The integrative model on approaches and methods to improve the effectiveness of development processes is split to two aggregate dimensions: technical performance of the developed solution and consumption of resources of the development process. Six potential approaches and methods aiming at helping in the management of organizational dimensions are presented in enclosed publications. The approaches focus on three subtasks of development work: decision making, implementation and change, and knowledge accumulation. The approaches and methods have been tested in case studies representing typical development processes in the area of supply chain management. As a result, four suggestions are presented. Firstly, SCM experts are advised to consider the SCM development work to be consisting of development processes. Secondly, inside these processes they should identify and evaluate the risk of difficult decision-making related to organizational factors. Thirdly, they are prompted for an active role in implementation and change, supporting the implementation through whole process. Finally, the development should be seen in a holistic view, taking into account the stage of knowledge and organizational issues related to it, and adopt a knowledge development strategy.

Carotenoids production: microorganisms as source of natural dyes

Carotenoids are natural dyes synthesized by plants, algae and microorganisms. Application in many sectors can be found, as food dyeing and supplementation, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and animal feed. Recent investigations have shown their ability to reduce the risks for many degenerative diseases like cancer, heart diseases, cataract and macular degeneration. An advantage of microbial carotenoids is the fact that the cultivation in controlled conditions is not dependent of climate, season or soil composition. In this review the advances in bio-production of carotenoids are presented, discussing the main factors that influence the microbial production of these dyes in different systems.

Chemical composition, circadian rhythm and antibacterial activity of essential oils of piper divaricatum: a new source of safrole

The essential oils from leaves, stems and fruits of Piper divaricatum were analyzed by GC-MS. The tissues showed high safrole content: leaves (98%), fruits (87%) and stems (83%), with yields of 2.0, 4.8 and 1.7%, respectively. This is a new alternative source of safrole, a compound widely used as a flavoring agent and insecticide. The leaf's oil showed antibacterial activity against gram-negative bacteria while safrole was active against Salmonella Typhimurium and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. In addition, the study of circadian rhythm of the safrole concentration in the essential oils of leaves showed a negligible variation of 92 to 98%.

Tropical biodiversity: has it been a potential source of secondary metabolites useful for medicinal chemistry?

The use of natural products has definitely been the most successful strategy in the discovery of novel medicines. Secondary metabolites from terrestrial and marine organisms have found considerable use in the treatment of numerous diseases and have been considered lead molecules both in their natural form and as templates for medicinal chemistry. This paper seeks to show the great value of secondary metabolites and emphasize the rich chemical diversity of Brazilian biodiversity. This natural chemical library remains understudied, but can be a useful source of new secondary metabolites with potential application as templates for drug discovery.

Volatile constituents of Aristolochia trilobata L. (Aristolochiaceae): a rich source of sulcatyl acetate

Analysis of the volatile fraction of Aristolochia trilobata stem led to the identification of 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-yl acetate (23.31 ± 0.28%), limonene (15.43 ± 0.030%), linalool (8.70 ± 0.29%), p-cymene (7.81 ± 0.12%), bicyclogermacrene (4.21 ± 0.11%), and spathulenol (4.17 ± 0.14%) as the major constituents of the essential oil. Linalool (29.51 ± 0.49%), 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-ol (19.54 ± 0.82%), 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-yl acetate (8.92 ± 0.16%), and a-terpineol (4.62 ± 0.05%) were identified as major constituents of the hydrolate. The compound 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-yl acetate was isolated for the first time from this plant and was identified as the major component of the volatile fraction.

PYROLIGNEOUS LIQUOR PRODUCED FROM ACACIA MEARNSII DE WILD WOOD UNDER CONTROLLED CONDITIONS AS A RENEWABLE SOURCE OF CHEMICALS

Acacia mearnsii de Wild (black wattle) is one of the most important trees planted in Southern Brazil for tannin extraction and charcoal production. The pyrolysis of the black wattle wood used for obtaining charcoal is performed in brick ovens, with the gas fraction being sent directly into the environment. The present study examines the condensable compounds present in the liquor produced from black wattle wood at different thermal degradation conditions, using gas chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry (GC/MS). Branches of black wattle were thermally degraded at controlled ambient and temperature conditions. Overall, a higher variety of compounds were obtained under atmospheric air pressure than under synthetic air pressure. Most of the tentatively identified compounds, such as carboxylic acids, phenols, aldehydes, and low molecular mass lignin fragments, such as guayacol, syringol, and eugenol, were products of lignin thermoconversion. Substituted aromatic compounds, such as vanillin, ethyl vanillin, and 2-methoxy-4-propeny-phenol, were also identified. At temperatures above 200 ºC, furan, 2-acetylfuran, methyl-2-furoate, and furfural, amongst others, were identified as polysaccharide derivatives from cellulose and hemicellulose depolymerization. This study evidences the need for adequate management of the condensable by-products of charcoal production, both for economic reasons and for controlling their potential environmental impact.