Electric Power Forecasting Methodologies of Some South American Countries: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper, a comparative analysis of the long-term electric power forecasting methodologies used in some South American countries, is presented. The purpose of this study is to compare and observe if such methodologies have some similarities, and also examine the behavior of the results when they are applied to the Brazilian electric market. The abovementioned power forecasts were performed regarding the main four consumption classes (residential, industrial, commercial and rural) which are responsible for approximately 90% of the national consumption. The tool used in this analysis was the SAS (c) program. The outcome of this study allowed identifying various methodological similarities, mainly those related to the econometric variables used by these methods. This fact strongly conditioned the comparative results obtained.

Acoustic Simulation of a Special Switched Reluctance Drive by Means of Field-Circuit Coupling and Multiphysics Simulation

The approach presented in this paper consists of an energy-based field-circuit coupling in combination with multi-physics simulation of the acoustic radiation of electrical machines. The proposed method is applied to a special switched reluctance motor with asymmetric pole geometry to improve the start-up torque. The pole shape has been optimized, subject to low torque ripple, in a previous study. The proposed approach here is used to analyze the impact of the optimization on the overall acoustic behavior. The field-circuit coupling is based on a temporary lumped-parameter model of the magnetic part incorporated into a circuit simulation based on the modified nodal analysis. The harmonic force excitation is calculated by means of stress tensor computation, and it is transformed to a mechanical mesh by mapping techniques. The structural dynamic problem is solved in the frequency domain using a finite-element modal analysis and superposition. The radiation characteristic is obtained from boundary element acoustic simulation. Simulation results of both rotor types are compared, and measurements of the drive are presented.

Modeling and simulation of severe slugging in air-water pipeline-riser systems

A mathematical model, numerical simulations and stability and flow regime maps corresponding to severe slugging in pipeline riser systems, are presented. In the simulations air and water were used as flowing fluids. The mathematical model considers continuity equations for liquid and gas phases, with a simplified momentum equation for the mixture, neglecting inertia. A drift-flux model, evaluated for the local conditions in the riser, is used as a closure law. The developed model predicts the location of the liquid accumulation front in the pipeline and the liquid level in the riser, so it is possible to determine which type of severe slugging occurs in the system. The numerical procedure is convergent for different nodalizations. A comparison is made with experimental results corresponding to a catenary riser, showing very good results for slugging cycle and stability and flow regime maps. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

3D CFD Simulation of Vortex-induced Vibration of Cylinder

The 3D flow around a circular cylinder free to oscillate transversely to the free stream was simulated using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and the Spalart-Allmaras Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) turbulence model for a Reynolds number Re = 10(4). Simulations were carried out for a small mass-damping parameter m*zeta = 0.00858, where m* = 3.3 and zeta = 0.0026. We found good agreement between the numerical results and experimental data. The simulations predicted the high observed amplitudes of the upper branch of vortex-induced vibrations for low mass-damping parameters.

Safety of a railway wheelset - derailment simulation with increasing lateral force

The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.

Simulation of the Barkhausen Noise using random field Ising model with long-range interaction

We present a method to simulate the Magnetic Barkhausen Noise using the Random Field Ising Model with magnetic long-range interaction. The method allows calculating the magnetic flux density behavior in particular sections of the lattice reticule. The results show an internal demagnetizing effect that proceeds from the magnetic long-range interactions. This demagnetizing effect induces the appearing of a magnetic pattern in the region of magnetic avalanches. When compared with the traditional method, the proposed numerical procedure neatly reduces computational costs of simulation. (c) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Comparison between detailed model simulation and artificial neural network for forecasting building energy consumption

There are several ways to attempt to model a building and its heat gains from external sources as well as internal ones in order to evaluate a proper operation, audit retrofit actions, and forecast energy consumption. Different techniques, varying from simple regression to models that are based on physical principles, can be used for simulation. A frequent hypothesis for all these models is that the input variables should be based on realistic data when they are available, otherwise the evaluation of energy consumption might be highly under or over estimated. In this paper, a comparison is made between a simple model based on artificial neural network (ANN) and a model that is based on physical principles (EnergyPlus) as an auditing and predicting tool in order to forecast building energy consumption. The Administration Building of the University of Sao Paulo is used as a case study. The building energy consumption profiles are collected as well as the campus meteorological data. Results show that both models are suitable for energy consumption forecast. Additionally, a parametric analysis is carried out for the considered building on EnergyPlus in order to evaluate the influence of several parameters such as the building profile occupation and weather data on such forecasting. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Matrix Method for Acoustic Levitation Simulation

A matrix method is presented for simulating acoustic levitators. A typical acoustic levitator consists of an ultrasonic transducer and a reflector. The matrix method is used to determine the potential for acoustic radiation force that acts on a small sphere in the standing wave field produced by the levitator. The method is based on the Rayleigh integral and it takes into account the multiple reflections that occur between the transducer and the reflector. The potential for acoustic radiation force obtained by the matrix method is validated by comparing the matrix method results with those obtained by the finite element method when using an axisymmetric model of a single-axis acoustic levitator. After validation, the method is applied in the simulation of a noncontact manipulation system consisting of two 37.9-kHz Langevin-type transducers and a plane reflector. The manipulation system allows control of the horizontal position of a small levitated sphere from -6 mm to 6 mm, which is done by changing the phase difference between the two transducers. The horizontal position of the sphere predicted by the matrix method agrees with the horizontal positions measured experimentally with a charge-coupled device camera. The main advantage of the matrix method is that it allows simulation of non-symmetric acoustic levitators without requiring much computational effort.

A Functional Verification Methodology Based on Parameter Domains for Efficient Input Stimuli Generation and Coverage Modeling

Modern Integrated Circuit (IC) design is characterized by a strong trend of Intellectual Property (IP) core integration into complex system-on-chip (SOC) architectures. These cores require thorough verification of their functionality to avoid erroneous behavior in the final device. Formal verification methods are capable of detecting any design bug. However, due to state explosion, their use remains limited to small circuits. Alternatively, simulation-based verification can explore hardware descriptions of any size, although the corresponding stimulus generation, as well as functional coverage definition, must be carefully planned to guarantee its efficacy. In general, static input space optimization methodologies have shown better efficiency and results than, for instance, Coverage Directed Verification (CDV) techniques, although they act on different facets of the monitored system and are not exclusive. This work presents a constrained-random simulation-based functional verification methodology where, on the basis of the Parameter Domains (PD) formalism, irrelevant and invalid test case scenarios are removed from the input space. To this purpose, a tool to automatically generate PD-based stimuli sources was developed. Additionally, we have developed a second tool to generate functional coverage models that fit exactly to the PD-based input space. Both the input stimuli and coverage model enhancements, resulted in a notable testbench efficiency increase, if compared to testbenches with traditional stimulation and coverage scenarios: 22% simulation time reduction when generating stimuli with our PD-based stimuli sources (still with a conventional coverage model), and 56% simulation time reduction when combining our stimuli sources with their corresponding, automatically generated, coverage models.

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability

Simulation of irrigated Thanzania grass growth based on photothermal units, nitrogen fertilization and water availability. The mathematical model to predict the forage yield using photothennal units was utilized with success in Elephant grass, Thanzania and Brachiaria niziziensis in the absence of water stress and nitrogen stress. The aim of this study was to propose models to estimate the forage yield of Thanzania grass under different irrigation (25, 50,75, 100 e 125% of ETc) and nitrogen level in various regions of Brazil. As such, models were developed to estimate the dry matter production of Panicum maximum Jacq. frass cv Thanzania in different irrigation and nitrogen levels, using photothermal units. The models were adjusted to doses of 0, 30, 60, 110 and 270 kg of N ha(-1), doses were divided in applications after each evaluation, with a rest cycle of 35 days. The adjusted model presented good performance in predicting dry matter production of Thanzania grass, with r(2) = 0.9999. The results made it possible to verify that the proposed model can be used to predict forage production in different regions of Brazil. It can be estimated, with good precision. The production of Thanzania grass dry matter can be accurately estimated in specific places (in function of latitude and time of year), with the maximum and minimum temperature values.

Interference of raw milk autochthonous microbiota on the performance of conventional methodologies for Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella spp. detection

Pathogen detection in foods by reliable methodologies is very important to guarantee microbilogical safety. However, peculiar characteristics of certain foods, such as autochthonous microbiota, can directly influence pathogen development and detection. With the objective of verifying the performance of the official analytical methodologies for the isolation of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella in milk, different concentrations of these pathogens were inoculated in raw milk treatments with different levels of mesophilic aerobes, and then submitted to the traditional isolation procedures for the inoculated pathogens. Listeria monocytogenes was inoculated at the range of 0.2-5.2 log CFU/mL in treatments with 1.8-8.2 log CFU/mL. Salmonella Enteritidis was inoculated at 0.9-3.9 log CFU/mL in treatments with 3.0-8.2 log CFU/mL. The results indicated that recovery was not possible or was more difficult in the treatments with high counts of mesophilic aerobes and low levels of the pathogens, indicating interference of raw milk autochthonous microbiota. This interference was more evident for L. monocytogenes, once the pathogen recovery was not possible in treatments with mesophilic aerobes up to 4.0 log CFU/mL and inoculum under 2.0 log CFU/mL. For S. Enteritidis the interference appeared to be more non-specific. (C) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Distinct conformational properties determined by implicit and explicit representation of protein-solvent interactions. An analytical and computer simulation study

In the protein folding problem, solvent-mediated forces are commonly represented by intra-chain pairwise contact energy. Although this approximation has proven to be useful in several circumstances, it is limited in some other aspects of the problem. Here we show that it is possible to achieve two models to represent the chain-solvent system. one of them with implicit and other with explicit solvent, such that both reproduce the same thermodynamic results. Firstly, lattice models treated by analytical methods, were used to show that the implicit and explicitly representation of solvent effects can be energetically equivalent only if local solvent properties are time and spatially invariant. Following, applying the same reasoning Used for the lattice models, two inter-consistent Monte Carlo off-lattice models for implicit and explicit solvent are constructed, being that now in the latter the solvent properties are allowed to fluctuate. Then, it is shown that the chain configurational evolution as well as the globule equilibrium conformation are significantly distinct for implicit and explicit solvent systems. Actually, strongly contrasting with the implicit solvent version, the explicit solvent model predicts: (i) a malleable globule, in agreement with the estimated large protein-volume fluctuations; (ii) thermal conformational stability, resembling the conformational hear resistance of globular proteins, in which radii of gyration are practically insensitive to thermal effects over a relatively wide range of temperatures; and (iii) smaller radii of gyration at higher temperatures, indicating that the chain conformational entropy in the unfolded state is significantly smaller than that estimated from random coil configurations. Finally, we comment on the meaning of these results with respect to the understanding of the folding process. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

One size doesn't fit all: Research methodologies in a language variation study of Sudanese teens

The research reported here draws on a study of five teenagers from a Dinka-speaking community of Sudanese settling in Australia. A range of factors including language proficiency, social network structure and language attitudes are examined as possible causes for the variability of language use. The results and discussion illustrate how the use of a triangular research approach captured the complexity of the participants' language situation and was critical to developing a full understanding of the interplay of factors influencing the teens' language maintenance and shift in a way that no single method could. Further, it shows that employment of different methodologies allowed for flexibility in data collection to ensure the fullest response from participants. Overall, this research suggests that for studies of non-standard communities, variability in research methods may prove more of a strength that the use of standardised instruments and approaches.

XSophe-Sophe-XeprView (R). A computer simulation software suite (v. 1.1.3) for the analysis of continuous wave EPR spectra

The XSophe-Sophe-XeprView((R)) computer simulation software suite enables scientists to easily determine spin Hamiltonian parameters from isotropic, randomly oriented and single crystal continuous wave electron paramagnetic resonance (CW EPR) spectra from radicals and isolated paramagnetic metal ion centers or clusters found in metalloproteins, chemical systems and materials science. XSophe provides an X-windows graphical user interface to the Sophe programme and allows: creation of multiple input files, local and remote execution of Sophe, the display of sophelog (output from Sophe) and input parameters/files. Sophe is a sophisticated computer simulation software programme employing a number of innovative technologies including; the Sydney OPera HousE (SOPHE) partition and interpolation schemes, a field segmentation algorithm, the mosaic misorientation linewidth model, parallelization and spectral optimisation. In conjunction with the SOPHE partition scheme and the field segmentation algorithm, the SOPHE interpolation scheme and the mosaic misorientation linewidth model greatly increase the speed of simulations for most spin systems. Employing brute force matrix diagonalization in the simulation of an EPR spectrum from a high spin Cr(III) complex with the spin Hamiltonian parameters g(e) = 2.00, D = 0.10 cm(-1), E/D = 0.25, A(x) = 120.0, A(y) = 120.0, A(z) = 240.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1) requires a SOPHE grid size of N = 400 (to produce a good signal to noise ratio) and takes 229.47 s. In contrast the use of either the SOPHE interpolation scheme or the mosaic misorientation linewidth model requires a SOPHE grid size of only N = 18 and takes 44.08 and 0.79 s, respectively. Results from Sophe are transferred via the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) to XSophe and subsequently to XeprView((R)) where the simulated CW EPR spectra (1D and 2D) can be compared to the experimental spectra. Energy level diagrams, transition roadmaps and transition surfaces aid the interpretation of complicated randomly oriented CW EPR spectra and can be viewed with a web browser and an OpenInventor scene graph viewer.