Effect of the increase in "alcopops" tax on alcohol-related harms in young people : a controlled interrupted time series

Objective: To measure alcohol-related harms to the health of young people presenting to emergency departments (EDs) of Gold Coast public hospitals before and after the increase in the federal government "alcopops" tax in 2008. Design, setting and participants: Interrupted time series analysis over 5 years (28 April 2005 to 27 April 2010) of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with presentations of selected control groups. Main outcome measures: Proportion of 15-29-year-olds presenting to EDs with alcohol-related harms compared with (i) 30-49-year-olds with alcohol-related harms, (ii)15-29-year-olds with asthma or appendicitis, and (iii) 15-29-yearolds with any non-alcohol and non-injury related ED presentation. Results: Over a third of 15-29-year-olds presented to ED with alcohol-related conditions, as opposed to around a quarter for all other age groups. There was no significant decrease in alcohol-related ED presentations of 15-29-year-olds compared with any of the control groups after the increase in the tax. We found similar results for males and females, narrow and broad definitions of alcoholrelated harms, under-19s, and visitors to and residents of the Gold Coast. Conclusions: The increase in the tax on al copops was not associated with any reduction in alcohol-related harms in this population in a unique tourist and holiday region. A more comprehensive approach to reducing alcohol harms in young people is needed.

A time series analysis of presentations to Queensland health facilities for alcohol-related conditions, following the increase in 'alcopops' tax

Objective: In response to concerns about the health consequences of high-risk drinking by young people, the Australian Government increased the tax on pre-mixed alcoholic beverages ('alcopops') favoured by this demographic. We measured changes in admissions for alcohol-related harm to health throughout Queensland, before and after the tax increase in April 2008. Methods: We used data from the Queensland Trauma Register, Hospitals Admitted Patients Data Collection, and the Emergency Department Information System to calculate alcohol-related admission rates per 100,000 people, for 15 - 29 year-olds. We analysed data over 3 years (April 2006 - April 2009), using interrupted time-series analyses. This covered 2 years before, and 1 year after, the tax increase. We investigated both mental and behavioural consequences (via F10 codes), and intentional/unintentional injuries (S and T codes). Results: We fitted an auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to test for any changes following the increased tax. There was no decrease in alcohol-related admissions in 15 - 29 year-olds. We found similar results for males and females, as well as definitions of alcohol-related harms that were narrow (F10 codes only) and broad (F10, S and T codes). Conclusions: The increased tax on 'alcopops' was not associated with any reduction in hospital admissions for alcohol-related harms in Queensland 15 - 29 year-olds.

Demographics and discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees at a subacute rehabilitation unit: A 7-year series

Objective To examine personal and social demographics, and rehabilitation discharge outcomes of dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees. Methods In total, 425 lower limb amputation inpatient rehabilitation admissions (335 individuals) from 2005 to 2011 were examined. Admission and discharge descriptive statistics (frequency, percentages) were calculated and compared by aetiology. Results Participants were male (74%), aged 65 years (s.d. 14), born in Australia (72%), had predominantly dysvascular aetiology (80%) and a median length of stay 48 days (interquartile range (IQR): 25–76). Following amputation, 56% received prostheses for mobility, 21% (n = 89) changed residence and 28% (n = 116) required community services. Dysvascular amputees were older (mean 67 years, s.d. 12 vs 54 years, s.d. 16; P < 0.001) and recorded lower functional independence measure – motor scores at admission (z = 3.61, P < 0.001) and discharge (z = 4.52, P < 0.001). More nonvascular amputees worked before amputation (43% vs 11%; P < 0.001), were prescribed a prosthesis by discharge (73% vs 52%; P < 0.001) and had a shorter length of stay (7 days, 95% confidence interval: –3 to 17), although this was not statistically significant. Conclusions Differences exist in social and demographic outcomes between dysvascular and non-vascular lower limb amputees.

Development of health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane. Results: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk of mortality in the second half of a warm season than that in the first half. While elderly (>75 years)were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a teiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave. Conclusions: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. thsi tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.

Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years: Learning about Language in the Australian Curriculum: English

This new volume, Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years (Exley, Kevin & Mantei, 2014), follows on from Playing with Grammar in the Early Years (Exley & Kervin, 2013). We extend our thanks to the ALEA membership for their take up of the first volume and the vibrant conversations around our first attempt at developing a pedagogy for the teaching of grammar in the early years. Your engagement at locally held ALEA events has motivated us to complete this second volume and reassert our interest in the pursuit of socially-just outcomes in the primary years. As noted in Exley and Kervin (2013), we believe that mastering a range of literacy competences includes not only the technical skills for learning, but also the resources for viewing and constructing the world (Freire and Macdeo, 1987). Rather than seeing knowledge about language as the accumulation of technical skills alone, the viewpoint to which we subscribe treats knowledge about language as a dialectic that evolves from, is situated in, and contributes to active participation within a social arena (Halliday, 1978). We acknowledge that to explore is to engage in processes of discovery as we look closely and examine the opportunities before us. As such, we draw on Janks’ (2000; 2014) critical literacy theory to underpin many of the learning experiences in this text. Janks (2000) argues that effective participation in society requires knowledge about how the power of language promotes views, beliefs and values of certain groups to the exclusion of others. Powerful language users can identify not only how readers are positioned by these views, but also the ways these views are conveyed through the design of the text, that is, the combination of vocabulary, syntax, image, movement and sound. Similarly, powerful designers of texts can make careful modal choices in written and visual design to promote certain perspectives that position readers and viewers in new ways to consider more diverse points of view. As the title of our text suggests, our activities are designed to support learners in exploring the design of texts to achieve certain purposes and to consider the potential for the sharing of their own views through text production. In Exploring with Grammar in the Primary Years, we focus on the Year 3 to Year 6 grouping in line with the Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority’s (hereafter ACARA) advice on the ‘nature of learners’ (ACARA, 2014). Our goal in this publication is to provide a range of highly practical strategies for scaffolding students’ learning through some of the Content Descriptions from the Australian Curriculum: English Version 7.2, hereafter AC:E (ACARA, 2014). We continue to express our belief in the power of using whole texts from a range of authentic sources including high quality children’s literature, the internet, and examples of community-based texts to expose students to the richness of language. Taking time to look at language patterns within actual texts is a pathway to ‘…capture interest, stir the imagination and absorb the [child]’ into the world of language and literacy (Saxby, 1993, p. 55). It is our intention to be more overt this time and send a stronger message that our learning experiences are simply ‘sample’ activities rather than a teachers’ workbook or a program of study to be followed. We’re hoping that teachers and students will continue to explore their bookshelves, the internet and their community for texts that provide powerful opportunities to engage with language-based learning experiences. In the following three sections, we have tried to remain faithful to our interpretation of the AC:E Content Descriptions without giving an exhaustive explanation of the grammatical terms. This recently released curriculum offers a new theoretical approach to building students’ knowledge about language. The AC:E uses selected traditional terms through an approach developed in systemic functional linguistics (see Halliday and Matthiessen, 2004) to highlight the dynamic forms and functions of multimodal language in texts. For example, the following statement, taken from the ‘Language: Knowing about the English language’ strand states: English uses standard grammatical terminology within a contextual framework, in which language choices are seen to vary according to the topics at hand, the nature and proximity of the relationships between the language users, and the modalities or channels of communication available (ACARA, 2014). Put simply, traditional grammar terms are used within a functional framework made up of field, tenor, and mode. An understanding of genre is noted with the reference to a ‘contextual framework’. The ‘topics at hand’ concern the field or subject matter of the text. The ‘relationships between the language users’ is a description of tenor. There is reference to ‘modalities’, such as spoken, written or visual text. We posit that this innovative approach is necessary for working with contemporary multimodal and cross-cultural texts (see Exley & Mills, 2012). Other excellent tomes, such as Derewianka (2011), Humphrey, Droga and Feez (2012), and Rossbridge and Rushton (2011) provide more comprehensive explanations of this unique metalanguage, as does the AC:E Glossary. We’ve reproduced some of the AC:E Glossary at the end of this publication. We’ve also kept the same layout for our learning experiences, ensuring that our teacher notes are not only succinct but also prudent in their placement. Each learning experience is connected to a Content Description from the AC:E and contains an experience with an identified purpose, suggested resource text and a possible sequence for the experience that always commences with an orientation to text followed by an examination of a particular grammatical resource. Our plans allow for focused discussion, shared exploration and opportunities to revisit the same text for the purpose of enhancing meaning making. Some learning experiences finish with deconstruction of a stimulus text while others invite students to engage in the design of new texts. We encourage you to look for opportunities in your own classrooms to move from text deconstruction to text design. In this way, students can express not only their emerging grammatical understandings, but also the ways they might position readers or viewers through the creation of their own texts. We expect that each of these learning experiences will vary in the time taken. Some may indeed take a couple if not a few teaching episodes to work through, especially if students are meeting a concept or a pedagogical strategy for the first time. We hope you use as much, or as little, of each experience as is needed for your students. We do not want the teaching of grammar to slip into a crisis of irrelevance or to be seen as a series of worksheet drills with finite answers. We firmly believe that strategies for effective deconstruction and design practice, however, have much portability. We three are very keen to hear from teachers who are adopting and adapting these learning experiences in their classrooms. Please email us on b.exley@qut.edu.au, lkervin@uow.edu.au or jessicam@ouw.edu.au. We’d love to continue the conversation with you over time. Beryl Exley, Lisa Kervin & Jessica Mantei

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Anticipating Chinese Tourists Arrivals in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

Given the growing importance of the Chinese tourist market to Australia, an understanding of Chinese tourists' arrival patterns is essential to accurate forecasting of future arrivals. Drawing on 25 years of records (1991-2015), this study developed a time-series model of monthly arrivals of Chinese tourists in Australia. The model reflects the exponentially increasing trend and strong seasonality of arrivals. Excellent results from validation of the model's forecasts endorsed this time-series model's potential in the policy prescription and management practice of Australian tourism industries.

Macadamia Regional Variety Trials Series 3 - Phase 2

Regional variety trials (RVT) established in 1983 and again in 1997 identified superior varieties for the macadamia industry. From the 1983 trials, guidelines were developed to assist growers to select the most appropriate new varieties for their particular orchards and many of these superior varieties have been enthusiastically adopted by industry. This is also being done for varieties in the 1997 trials. Many of the best cultivars have already been adopted by growers on the basis of annual reports of yield and quality. Industry development over the next 10 to 20 years will be largely dependent on new, superior varieties selected in these RVT5, including new selections from the macadamia industry breeding program.

The identification of teaching interactions used in one-to-one teaching of number in the early years of schooling

This research paper reports on phase one of an investigation of video recorded intensive one-to-one teaching interactions with 6–7-year-old students who were in their second year of schooling in Australia and identified by the their teacher as low attaining in early number. The two-phased study from which this paper emerges was originally conducted in 1998 as part of my Bachelor of Teaching Honours (Research) program at Southern Cross University Lismore, New South Wales. That study identified teaching interactions particularly suited to one-to-one teaching in the Maths Recovery Program, a program designed for these students who were at risk of failure in early number. Since that time a great deal has not changed with limited literature available that comprehensively reports on teaching interactions in intensive one-to-one settings. Revisiting the original study is considered timely given the increasing number of withdrawal and intensive programs now funded and adopted by schools and yet, rarely reported on in terms of the effectiveness of the teaching interactions that occur in such settings. This paper then presents a discussion of a preliminary series of teaching interactions that either positively and or negatively influence an intensive one-to-one teaching and learning setting

Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

A Comparison of Machine Learning Techniques for Modeling River Flow Time Series: The Case of Upper Cauvery River Basin

Models of river flow time series are essential in efficient management of a river basin. It helps policy makers in developing efficient water utilization strategies to maximize the utility of scarce water resource. Time series analysis has been used extensively for modeling river flow data. The use of machine learning techniques such as support-vector regression and neural network models is gaining increasing popularity. In this paper we compare the performance of these techniques by applying it to a long-term time-series data of the inflows into the Krishnaraja Sagar reservoir (KRS) from three tributaries of the river Cauvery. In this study flow data over a period of 30 years from three different observation points established in upper Cauvery river sub-basin is analyzed to estimate their contribution to KRS. Specifically, ANN model uses a multi-layer feed forward network trained with a back-propagation algorithm and support vector regression with epsilon intensive-loss function is used. Auto-regressive moving average models are also applied to the same data. The performance of different techniques is compared using performance metrics such as root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation, normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE).

Using long time series of agricultural-derived nitrates for estimating catchment transit times

The estimation of water and solute transit times in catchments is crucial for predicting the response of hydrosystems to external forcings (climatic or anthropogenic). The hydrogeochemical signatures of tracers (either natural or anthropogenic) in streams have been widely used to estimate transit times in catchments as they integrate the various processes at stake. However, most of these tracers are well suited for catchments with mean transit times lower than about 4-5 years. Since the second half of the 20th century, the intensification of agriculture led to a general increase of the nitrogen load in rivers. As nitrate is mainly transported by groundwater in agricultural catchments, this signal can be used to estimate transit times greater than several years, even if nitrate is not a conservative tracer. Conceptual hydrological models can be used to estimate catchment transit times provided their consistency is demonstrated, based on their ability to simulate the stream chemical signatures at various time scales and catchment internal processes such as N storage in groundwater. The objective of this study was to assess if a conceptual lumped model was able to simulate the observed patterns of nitrogen concentration, at various time scales, from seasonal to pluriannual and thus if it was relevant to estimate the nitrogen transit times in headwater catchments. A conceptual lumped model, representing shallow groundwater flow as two parallel linear stores with double porosity, and riparian processes by a constant nitrogen removal function, was applied on two paired agricultural catchments which belong to the Research Observatory ORE AgrHys. The Global Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach was used to estimate parameter values and uncertainties. The model performance was assessed on (i) its ability to simulate the contrasted patterns of stream flow and stream nitrate concentrations at seasonal and inter-annual time scales, (ii) its ability to simulate the patterns observed in groundwater at the same temporal scales, and (iii) the consistency of long-term simulations using the calibrated model and the general pattern of the nitrate concentration increase in the region since the beginning of the intensification of agriculture in the 1960s. The simulated nitrate transit times were found more sensitive to climate variability than to parameter uncertainty, and average values were found to be consistent with results from others studies in the same region involving modeling and groundwater dating. This study shows that a simple model can be used to simulate the main dynamics of nitrogen in an intensively polluted catchment and then be used to estimate the transit times of these pollutants in the system which is crucial to guide mitigation plans design and assessment. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

MBARI procedures for automated nutrient analyses using a modified Alpkem Series 300 Rapid Flow Analyzer

This report documents the methods used at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) for analyzing seawater nutrient samples with an Alpkem Series 300 Rapid Flow Analyzer (RFA) system. The methods have been optimized for the particular requirements of this laboratory. The RFA system has been used to analyze approximately 20,000 samples during the past two years. The methods have been optimized to run nutrient analyses in a routine manner with a detection limit of better than -±1% and a within run precision of -±1% of the full scale concentration range. The normal concentration ranges are 0-200 ~M silicate, 0-5 ~M phosphate, 0-50 ~M nitrate, 0-3 ~M nitrite, and 0-10 ~M ammonium. The memorandum is designed to be used in a loose-leaf binder format. Each page is dated and as revisions are made, they should be inserted into the binder. The revisions should be added into the binder. Retain the old versions in order to maintain a historical record of the procedures. (88 pages)

2002-03 Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary science report: An ecosystem report card after five years of marine zoning

Executive Summary: Circulation and Exchange of Florida Bay and South Florida Coastal Waters The coastal ecosystem of South Florida is comprised of distinct marine environments. Circulation of surface waters and exchange processes, which respond to both local and regional forcings, interconnect different coastal environments. In addition, re-circulating current systems within the South Florida coastal ecosystem such as the Tortugas Gyre contribute to retention of locally spawned larvae. Variability in salinity, chlorophyll, and light transmittance occurs on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales, in response to both natural forcing, such as seasonal precipitation and evaporation and interannual “El Niño” climate signals, and anthropogenic forcing, such as water management practices in south Florida. The full time series of surface property maps are posted at www.aoml.noaa.gov/sfp. Regional surface circulation patterns, shown by satellite-tracked surface drifters, respond to large-scale forcing such as wind variability and sea level slopes. Recent patterns include slow flow from near the mouth of the Shark River to the Lower Keys, rapid flow from the Tortugas to the shelf of the Carolinas, and flow from the Tortugas around the Tortugas Gyre and out of the Florida Straits. The Southwest Florida Shelf and the Atlantic side of the Florida Keys coastal zone are directly connected by passages between the islands of the Middle and Lower Keys. Movement of water between these regions depends on a combination of local wind-forced currents and gravitydriven transports through the passages, produced by cross-Key sea level differences on time scales of several days to weeks, which arise because of differences in physical characteristics (shape, orientation, and depth) of the shelf on either side of the Keys. A southeastward mean flow transports water from western Florida Bay, which undergoes large variations in water quality, to the reef tract. Adequate sampling of oceanographic events requires both the capability of near real-time recognition of these events, and the flexibility to rapidly stage targeted field sampling. Capacity to respond to events is increasing, as demonstrated by investigations of the 2002 “blackwater” event and a 2003 entrainment of Mississippi River water to the Tortugas. (PDF contains 364 pages.)

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.