Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tides, extra-tropical storm surges and mean sea level

The occurrence of extreme water levels along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to considerable loss of life and billions of dollars of damage to coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood management, engineering and future land-use planning. This ensures the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. This paper estimates for the first time present day extreme water level exceedence probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. A high-resolution depth averaged hydrodynamic model has been configured for the Australian continental shelf region and has been forced with tidal levels from a global tidal model and meteorological fields from a global reanalysis to generate a 61-year hindcast of water levels. Output from this model has been successfully validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites. At each numeric coastal grid point, extreme value distributions have been fitted to the derived time series of annual maxima and the several largest water levels each year to estimate exceedence probabilities. This provides a reliable estimate of water level probabilities around southern Australia; a region mainly impacted by extra-tropical cyclones. However, as the meteorological forcing used only weakly includes the effects of tropical cyclones, extreme water level probabilities are underestimated around the western, northern and north-eastern Australian coastline. In a companion paper we build on the work presented here and more accurately include tropical cyclone-induced surges in the estimation of extreme water level. The multi-decadal hindcast generated here has been used primarily to estimate extreme water level exceedance probabilities but could be used more widely in the future for a variety of other research and practical applications.

Groundwater table response to sea level rise and its impact on pavement structure

It has been predicted that sea level will rise about 0.8 m by 2100. Consequently, seawater can intrude into the coastal aquifers and change the level of groundwater table. A raise in groundwater table due to seawater intrusion threats the coastal infrastructure such as road pavements. The mechanical properties of subgrade materials will change due to elevated rise of groundwater table, leading to pavement weakening and decreasing the subgrade strength and stiffness. This paper presents an assessment of the vulnerability of subgrade in coastal areas to change in groundwater table due to sea-level rise. A simple bathtub approach is applied for estimating the groundwater level changes according to sea-level rise. Then the effect of groundwater level changes on the soil water content (SWC) of a single column of fine-sand soil is simulated using MIKE SHE. The impact of an increase in moisture content on subgrade strength/stiffness is assessed for a number of scenarios.

The SEA-CALIPSO volcano imaging experiment at Montserrat : plans, campaigns at sea and on land, scientific results, and lessons learned

Since 1995 the eruption of the andesitic Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat, has been studied in substantial detail. As an important contribution to this effort, the Seismic Experiment with Airgunsource-Caribbean Andesitic Lava Island Precision Seismo-geodetic Observatory (SEA-CALIPSO) experiment was devised to image the arc crust underlying Montserrat, and, if possible, the magma system at SHV using tomography and reflection seismology. Field operations were carried out in October–December 2007, with deployment of 238 seismometers on land supplementing seven volcano observatory stations, and with an array of 10 ocean-bottom seismometers deployed offshore. The RRS James Cook on NERC cruise JC19 towed a tuned airgun array plus a digital 48-channel streamer on encircling and radial tracks for 77 h about Montserrat during December 2007, firing 4414 airgun shots and yielding about 47 Gb of data. The main objecctives of the experiment were achieved. Preliminary analyses of these data published in 2010 generated images of heterogeneous high-velocity bodies representing the cores of volcanoes and subjacent intrusions, and shallow areas of low velocity on the flanks of the island that reflect volcaniclastic deposits and hydrothermal alteration. The resolution of this preliminary work did not extend beyond 5 km depth. An improved three-dimensional (3D) seismic velocity model was then obtained by inversion of 181 665 first-arrival travel times from a more-complete sampling of the dataset, yielding clear images to 7.5 km depth of a low-velocity volume that was interpreted as the magma chamber which feeds the current eruption, with an estimated volume 13 km3. Coupled thermal and seismic modelling revealed properties of the partly crystallized magma. Seismic reflection analyses aimed at imaging structures under southern Montserrat had limited success, and suggest subhorizontal layering interpreted as sills at a depth of between 6 and 19 km. Seismic reflection profiles collected offshore reveal deep fans of volcaniclastic debris and fault offsets, leading to new tectonic interpretations. This chapter presents the project goals and planning concepts, describes in detail the campaigns at sea and on land, summarizes the major results, and identifies the key lessons learned.

Road infrastructure vulnerability to groundwater table variation due to sea level rise

This study was conducted to assess the vulnerability of coastal road infrastructures due to climate change induced sea level rise and extreme weather conditions through the estimation of road subgrade strength reduction as a result of changes in soil moisture content. The study area located in the Gold Coast, Australia highlighted that the risk is significant. In wet seasons or areas with wet condition, the groundwater table is already high, so even a small change in the groundwater table can raise the risk of inundation; particularly, in areas with existing shallow groundwater. The predicted risk of a high groundwater table on road infrastructure is a long-term hazard. Therefore, there is time to undertake some management plans to decrease the possible risks, for instance, some deep root plants could be planted along the roads with a high level of risk, to decrease the groundwater table elevation.

The relationship between N2O, NO, and N2 fluxes from fertilized and irrigated dryland soils of the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan

Microbial respiratory reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) to dinitrogen (N2) via denitrification plays a key role within the global N-cycle since it is the most important process for converting reactive nitrogen back into inert molecular N2. However, due to methodological constraints, we still lack a comprehensive, quantitative understanding of denitrification rates and controlling factors across various ecosystems. We investigated N2, N2O and NO emissions from irrigated cotton fields within the Aral Sera Basin using the He/O2 atmosphere gas flow soil core technique and an incubation assay. NH4NO3 fertilizer, equivalent to 75 kg ha−1 and irrigation water, adjusting the water holding capacity to 70, 100 and 130% were applied to the incubation vessels to assess its influence on gaseous N emissions. Under soil conditions as they are naturally found after concomitant irrigation and fertilization, denitrification was the dominant process and N2 the main end product of denitrification. The mean ratios of N2/N2O emissions increased with increasing soil moisture content. N2 emissions exceeded N2O emissions by a factor of 5 ± 2 at 70% soil water holding capacity (WHC) and a factor of 55 ± 27 at 130% WHC. The mean ratios of N2O/NO emissions varied between 1.5 ± 0.4 (70% WHC) and 644 ± 108 (130% WHC). The magnitude of N2 emissions for irrigated cotton was estimated to be in the range of 24 ± 9 to 175 ± 65 kg-N ha−1season−1, while emissions of NO were only of minor importance (between 0.1 to 0.7 kg-N ha−1 season−1). The findings demonstrate that for irrigated dryland soils in the Aral Sera Basin, denitrification is a major pathway of N-loss and that substantial amounts of N-fertilizer are lost as N2 to the atmosphere for irrigated dryland soils.

Nitrous oxide emissions from fertilized, irrigated cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan : influence of nitrogen applications and irrigation practices

Nitrous oxide emissions were monitored at three sites over a 2-year period in irrigated cotton fields in Khorezm, Uzbekistan, a region located in the arid deserts of the Aral Sea Basin. The fields were managed using different fertilizer management strategies and irrigation water regimes. N2O emissions varied widely between years, within 1 year throughout the vegetation season, and between the sites. The amount of irrigation water applied, the amount and type of N fertilizer used, and topsoil temperature had the greatest effect on these emissions. Very high N2O emissions of up to 3000 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 were measured in periods following N-fertilizer application in combination with irrigation events. These “emission pulses” accounted for 80–95% of the total N2O emissions between April and September and varied from 0.9 to 6.5 kg N2O-N ha−1.. Emission factors (EF), uncorrected for background emission, ranged from 0.4% to 2.6% of total N applied, corresponding to an average EF of 1.48% of applied N fertilizer lost as N2O-N. This is in line with the default global average value of 1.25% of applied N used in calculations of N2O emissions by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. During the emission pulses, which were triggered by high soil moisture and high availability of mineral N, a clear diurnal pattern of N2O emissions was observed, driven by daily changes in topsoil temperature. For these periods, air sampling from 8:00 to 10:00 and from 18:00 to 20:00 was found to best represent the mean daily N2O flux rates. The wet topsoil conditions caused by irrigation favored the production of N2O from NO3− fertilizers, but not from NH4+ fertilizers, thus indicating that denitrification was the main process causing N2O emissions. It is therefore argued that there is scope for reducing N2O emission from irrigated cotton production; i.e. through the exclusive use of NH4+ fertilizers. Advanced application and irrigation techniques such as subsurface fertilizer application, drip irrigation and fertigation may also minimize N2O emission from this regionally dominant agro-ecosystem.

Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes in annual and perennial land-use systems of the irrigated areas in the Aral Sea Basin

Land use and agricultural practices can result in important contributions to the global source strength of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). However, knowledge of gas flux from irrigated agriculture is very limited. From April 2005 to October 2006, a study was conducted in the Aral Sea Basin, Uzbekistan, to quantify and compare emissions of N2O and CH4 in various annual and perennial land-use systems: irrigated cotton, winter wheat and rice crops, a poplar plantation and a natural Tugai (floodplain) forest. In the annual systems, average N2O emissions ranged from 10 to 150 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1 with highest N2O emissions in the cotton fields, covering a similar range of previous studies from irrigated cropping systems. Emission factors (uncorrected for background emission), used to determine the fertilizer-induced N2O emission as a percentage of N fertilizer applied, ranged from 0.2% to 2.6%. Seasonal variations in N2O emissions were principally controlled by fertilization and irrigation management. Pulses of N2O emissions occurred after concomitant N-fertilizer application and irrigation. The unfertilized poplar plantation showed high N2O emissions over the entire study period (30 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1), whereas only negligible fluxes of N2O (<2 μg N2O-N m−2 h−1) occurred in the Tugai. Significant CH4 fluxes only were determined from the flooded rice field: Fluxes were low with mean flux rates of 32 mg CH4 m−2 day−1 and a low seasonal total of 35.2 kg CH4 ha−1. The global warming potential (GWP) of the N2O and CH4 fluxes was highest under rice and cotton, with seasonal changes between 500 and 3000 kg CO2 eq. ha−1. The biennial cotton–wheat–rice crop rotation commonly practiced in the region would average a GWP of 2500 kg CO2 eq. ha−1 yr−1. The analyses point out opportunities for reducing the GWP of these irrigated agricultural systems by (i) optimization of fertilization and irrigation practices and (ii) conversion of annual cropping systems into perennial forest plantations, especially on less profitable, marginal lands.

A computational model for BMP movement in sea urchin embryos

Bone morphogen proteins (BMPs) are distributed along a dorsal-ventral (DV) gradient in many developing embryos. The spatial distribution of this signaling ligand is critical for correct DV axis specification. In various species, BMP expression is spatially localized, and BMP gradient formation relies on BMP transport, which in turn requires interactions with the extracellular proteins Short gastrulation/Chordin (Chd) and Twisted gastrulation (Tsg). These binding interactions promote BMP movement and concomitantly inhibit BMP signaling. The protease Tolloid (Tld) cleaves Chd, which releases BMP from the complex and permits it to bind the BMP receptor and signal. In sea urchin embryos, BMP is produced in the ventral ectoderm, but signals in the dorsal ectoderm. The transport of BMP from the ventral ectoderm to the dorsal ectoderm in sea urchin embryos is not understood. Therefore, using information from a series of experiments, we adapt the mathematical model of Mizutani et al. (2005) and embed it as the reaction part of a one-dimensional reaction–diffusion model. We use it to study aspects of this transport process in sea urchin embryos. We demonstrate that the receptor-bound BMP concentration exhibits dorsally centered peaks of the same type as those observed experimentally when the ternary transport complex (Chd-Tsg-BMP) forms relatively quickly and BMP receptor binding is relatively slow. Similarly, dorsally centered peaks are created when the diffusivities of BMP, Chd, and Chd-Tsg are relatively low and that of Chd-Tsg-BMP is relatively high, and the model dynamics also suggest that Tld is a principal regulator of the system. At the end of this paper, we briefly compare the observed dynamics in the sea urchin model to a version that applies to the fly embryo, and we find that the same conditions can account for BMP transport in the two types of embryos only if Tld levels are reduced in sea urchin compared to fly.

across the sea

'Across the sea' is a multi-channel screen-based installation that explores the part that the landscape and narration play in cinematic constructions of gendered identity. The work is informed by new wave cinema, feminist film theory and emergent ideas of a female gaze. across the sea considers both the role of the artist, as well as the auteur in cinema, to question how the outcomes differ when a female rather than a male gaze is writing, directing and filming the imagery. The screen-based installation of 'across the sea' seeks to further examine the ways in which our experience as a viewer of cinematic imagery can be both constructed and expanded within a gallery context. across the sea investigates the spaces that exist between the gallery and the cinema, in an effort to consider notions of femininity that exist between and throughout the varied spaces of film and art.

A sunburnt country – storms, surges and sea levels : of insurance and flooding rains

Increasing population pressures and life-style choices are resulting in more people living in areas that are at risk of inundation from rising sea levels and flooding. However, following natural disaster events, such as the 2011 Queensland floods, many Australians discovered they were uninsured. Either their insurance policies did not cover flood; or multiple (and confusing) water-related definitions led them to believe they had cover when they did not. Several theories are analysed to try to explain what is a world-wide underinsurance problem but these do not provide an answer to the problem. This research focuses on uncovering the reasons consumers fail to adequately insure for flood and other water-related events. Recent Australian legislative attempts to overcome insureds’ confusion of water related definitions are examined for this purpose. The authors conclude that Australian and other) legislators should set a maximum premium for a minimum amount of flood and sea related cover; and restrict the building and style of homes in flood prone areas.

Sources and composition of sub-200 nm sea spray aerosol inferred from volatility and hygroscopicity

Enrichment of marine organics in remote marine aerosols can influence their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), which are sites for water vapour to condense into cloud droplets. This project identified the composition and hygroscopicity of sea spray aerosol (SSA) formed at the ocean surface due to bursting of entrained air bubbles. SSA from organically enriched waters in the southwest Pacific and Southern Oceans were investigated. Results indicate that current emission schemes may not adequately predict SSA CCN, influencing the representation of cloud formation in climate modelling.

Automated counting of the Northern Pacific Sea Star in the Derwent using shape recognition

A novel shape recognition algorithm was developed to autonomously classify the Northern Pacific Sea Star (Asterias amurenis) from benthic images that were collected by the Starbug AUV during 6km of transects in the Derwent estuary. Despite the effects of scattering, attenuation, soft focus and motion blur within the underwater images, an optimal joint classification rate of 77.5% and misclassification rate of 13.5% was achieved. The performance of algorithm was largely attributed to its ability to recognise locally deformed sea star shapes that were created during the segmentation of the distorted images.

Development and characterization of microsatellite markers in the sea squirt, Halocynthia roretzi

We characterized nine new microsatellite markers isolated from (GT) n and (CT) n microsatellite- enriched genomic libraries of the sea squirt ( Halocynthia roretzi ). All markers were polymorphic in 92 individuals from a single natural population with 2–21 (mean 9.22) alleles per locus. The observed and expected heterozy-gosity of these markers were 0.086–0.886 and 0.102–0.870, respectively.One marker (Hr2004) significantly deviated from Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium. These new microsat-ellite markers should be useful for assessing the genetic diversity and population structure in H. roretzi.