Making robust decisions for conservation with restricted money and knowledge

1. In conservation decision-making, we operate within the confines of limited funding. Furthermore, we often assume particular relationships between management impact and our investment in management. The structure of these relationships, however, is rarely known with certainty - there is model uncertainty. We investigate how these two fundamentally limiting factors in conservation management, money and knowledge, impact optimal decision-making. 2. We use information-gap decision theory to find strategies for maximizing the number of extant subpopulations of a threatened species that are most immune to failure due to model uncertainty. We thus find a robust framework for exploring optimal decision-making. 3. The performance of every strategy decreases as model uncertainty increases. 4. The strategy most robust to model uncertainty depends not only on what performance is perceived to be acceptable but also on available funding and the time horizon over which extinction is considered. 5. Synthesis and applications. We investigate the impact of model uncertainty on robust decision-making in conservation and how this is affected by available conservation funding. We show that subpopulation triage can be a natural consequence of robust decision-making. We highlight the need for managers to consider triage not as merely giving up, but as a tool for ensuring species persistence in light of the urgency of most conservation requirements, uncertainty and the poor state of conservation funding. We illustrate this theory by a specific application to allocation of funding to reduce poaching impact on the Sumatran tiger Panthera tigris sumatrae in Kerinci Seblat National Park. © 2008 The Authors.

Subpopulation triage: How to allocate conservation effort among populations

Threatened species often exist in a small number of isolated subpopulations. Given limitations on conservation spending, managers must choose from strategies that range from managing just one subpopulation and risking all other subpopulations to managing all subpopulations equally and poorly, thereby risking the loss of all subpopulations. We took an economic approach to this problem in an effort to discover a simple rule of thumb for optimally allocating conservation effort among subpopulations. This rule was derived by maximizing the expected number of extant subpopulations remaining given n subpopulations are actually managed. We also derived a spatiotemporally optimized strategy through stochastic dynamic programming. The rule of thumb suggested that more subpopulations should be managed if the budget increases or if the cost of reducing local extinction probabilities decreases. The rule performed well against the exact optimal strategy that was the result of the stochastic dynamic program and much better than other simple strategies (e.g., always manage one extant subpopulation or half of the remaining subpopulation). We applied our approach to the allocation of funds in 2 contrasting case studies: reduction of poaching of Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) and habitat acquisition for San Joaquin kit foxes (Vulpes macrotis mutica). For our estimated annual budget for Sumatran tiger management, the mean time to extinction was about 32 years. For our estimated annual management budget for kit foxes in the San Joaquin Valley, the mean time to extinction was approximately 24 years. Our framework allows managers to deal with the important question of how to allocate scarce conservation resources among subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2008 Society for Conservation Biology.

Mechanisms of cisplatin resistance: DNA repair and cellular implications

Cisplatin (cis-diamminedichloroplatinum (II)), is a platinum based chemotherapeutic employed in the clinic to treat patients with lung, ovarian, colorectal or head and neck cancers. Cisplatin acts to induce tumor cell death via multiple mechanisms. The best characterized mode of action is through irreversible DNA cross-links which activate DNA damage signals leading to cell death via the intrinsic mitochondrial apoptosis pathway. However, the primary issue with cisplatin is that while patients initially respond favorably, sustained cisplatin therapy often yields chemoresistance resulting in therapeutic failure. In this chapter, we review the DNA damage and repair pathways that contribute to cisplatin resistance. We also examine the cellular implications of cisplatin resistance that may lead to selection of subpopulations of cells within a tumor. In better understanding the mechanisms conferring cisplatin resistance, novel targets may be identified to restore drug sensitivity.

Lower mantle diamonds from Rio Soriso (Juina area, Mato Grosso, Brazil)

The morphology, colour, fluorescence, cathodoluminescence, nitrogen content and aggregation state, internal structure and mineral inclusions have been studied for 69 alluvial diamonds from the Rio Soriso (Juina area, Mato Grosso State, Brazil). Nitrogen in most diamonds (53%) is fully aggregated as B centres, but there is also a large proportion of N-free stones (38%). A strong positive correlation between nitrogen and IR-active hydrogen concentrations is observed. The diamonds contain (in order of decreasing abundance) ferropericlase, CaSi-perovskite, magnetite, MgSi-perovskite, pyrrhotite, 'olivine', SiO2, perovskite, tetragonal almandine-pyrope phase and some other minerals represented by single grains. The Rio Soriso diamond suite is subdivided into several subpopulations that originated in upper and lower mantle of ultramafic and mafic compositions, with the largest subgroup forming in the ultramafic lower mantle. Analysed ferropericlase grains are enriched in Fe (Mg#=0.43-0.89), which is ascribed to their origin in the lowermost mantle. The Juina kimberlites may be unique in sampling the material from depths below 1,700 km that ascended in a plume formed at the core-mantle boundary.

High connectivity in rastrelliger kanagurta: Influence of historical signatures and migratory behaviour inferred from mtDNA Cytochrome b

Phylogeographic patterns and population structure of the pelagic Indian mackerel, Rastrelliger kanagurta were examined in 23 populations collected from the Indonesian-Malaysian Archipelago (IMA) and the West Indian Ocean (WIO). Despite the vast expanse of the IMA and neighbouring seas, no evidence for geographical structure was evident. An indication that R. kanagurta populations across this region are essentially panmictic. This study also revealed that historical isolation was insufficient for R. kanagurta to attain migration drift equilibrium. Two distinct subpopulations were detected between the WIO and the IMA (and adjacent populations); interpopulation genetic variation was high. A plausible explanation for the genetic differentiation observed between the IMA and WIO regions suggest historical isolation as a result of fluctuations in sea levels during the late Pleistocene. This occurrence resulted in the evolution of a phylogeographic break for this species to the north of the Andaman Sea.

Cholinergic Muscarinic Receptors in Human Fetal Brain: Ontogeny of [3H]Quinuclidinyl Benzilate Binding Sites in Corpus Striatum, Brainstem, and Cerebellum

The ontogeny of muscarinic receptors was studied in human fetal striatum, brainstem, and cerebellum to investigate general principles of synaptogenesis as well as the physiological balance between various chemical synapses during development in a given region of the brain. [3H]Quinuclidinyl benzilate ([-'H]QNB) binding was assayed in total particulate fraction (TPF) from various parts of brain. In the corpus striatum, QNB binding sites are present at 16 weeks of gestation (average concentration 180 fmol/mg protein of TPF), slowly increase up to 24 weeks (average concentration 217 fmol/mg protein), and rapidly increase during the third trimester to 480 fmol/mg protein of TPF. In contrast, dopaminergic receptors exist as two subpopulations. one with low affinity and the other with high affinity up to the 24th week of gestation; all of them acquire the highaffinity characteristic during the third trimester. In brainstem, the muscarinic receptors show maximum concentration by 16 weeks of age (360 fmolimg protein of TPF). Subsequently the muscarinic receptor concentration shows a gradual decline in the brainstem. In cerebellum, except for a slight increase at 24 weeks (average concentration 90 fmol/mg protein of TPF), the receptor concentration remained nearly constant at about 60-70 fmolimg protein of TPF throughout fetal life. This study demonstrates that the ontogeny of muscarinic receptors varies among the different regions, and the patterns observed suggest that receptor formation occurs principally in the third trimester. Also noteworthy is the finding that the QNB binding sites decreased in all regions of the human brain during adult life. Key Words: Cholinergic muscarinic receptors-Quinuclidinyl benzilate-Corpus striaturn-Brainstem-Cerebellum. Ravikumar B. V. and Sastry P. S. Cholinergic muscarinic receptors in human fetal brain: Ontogeny of [3H]quinuclidinyl benzilate binding sites in corpus striatum, brainstem, and cerebellum. J. Neurochem. 45, 1948- 1950 (1985).

Melaleuca densispicata in Currawinya National Park, South-West Queensland: Ecology and preliminary implications for management of a rare plant species

Melaleuca densispicata Byrnes is an uncommon species with a limited distribution, comprising disjunct populations in inland southern Queensland and northern New South Wales, Australia. It is a dense, woody shrub, 2–4 m in height, which exhibits a marked 'clumping' growth habit. It has thick, papery bark and displays many white flowers during spring or early summer. Although it has long been known to exist, M. densispicata was only formally described in 1984, and very little is currently known about its ecology or specific management requirements. There are only seven known subpopulations of the species across its range. A major population at the western limit of its distribution occurs on Currawinya National Park (28°52'S, 144°30'E). Here, it is locally abundant and listed as a noteworthy plant species under the Management Plan (Queensland Parks & Wildlife Service 2001). This study aimed to identify patterns in the distribution of M. densispicata in Currawinya National Park, describe its ecological niche and role, and provide management recommendations for the species within the study area. Recent anecdotal observations of recruitment failure in south-western Queensland (Peter McRae, QPWS, October 2004, pers. comm.; Dick O'Connell, local grazier, July 2005 pers. comm.) caused additional emphasis to be placed on the examination of recruitment and recruitment factors.

Microbial ecology of the equine hindgut during oligofructose-induced laminitis

Alimentary carbohydrate overload is a significant cause of laminitis in horses and is correlated with drastic shifts in the composition of hindgut microbiota. Equine hindgut streptococcal species (EHSS), predominantly Streptococcus lutetiensis, have been shown to be the most common microorganisms culturable from the equine caecum prior to the onset of laminitis. However, the inherent biases of culture-based methods are estimated to preclude up to 70% of the normal caecal microbiota. The objective of this study was to evaluate bacterial population shifts occurring in the equine caecum throughout the course of oligofructose-induced laminitis using several culture-independent techniques and to correlate these with caecal lactate, volatile fatty acid and degrees of polymerization 3-7 fructo-oligosaccharide concentrations. Our data conclusively show that of the total microbiota present in the equine hindgut, the EHSS S. lutetiensis is the predominant microorganism that proliferates prior to the onset of laminitis, utilizing oligofructose to produce large quantities of lactate. Population shifts in lactobacilli and Escherichia coli subpopulations occur secondarily to the EHSS population shifts, thus confirming that lactobacilli and coliforms have no role in laminitis. A large, curved, Gram-negative rod previously observed during the early phases of laminitis induction was most closely related to the Anaerovibrio genus and most likely represents a new, yet to be cultured, genus and species. Correlation of fluorescence in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis that laminitis is associated with the death en masse and rapid cell lysis of EHSS. If EHSS are lysed, liberated cellular components may initiate laminitis.

Recovery of the red-finned blue-eye: An endangered fish from springs of the Great Artesian Basin

The red-finned blue-eye (Scaturiginichthys vermeilipinnis) is endemic to a single complex of springs emanating from the Great Artesian Basin, Australia. The species has been recorded as naturally occurring in eight separate very shallow (generally <20 mm) springs, with a combined wetland area of ~0.3 ha. Since its discovery in 1990, five red-finned blue-eye (RFBE) populations have been lost and subsequent colonisation has occurred in two spring wetlands. Current population size is estimated at <3000 individuals. Artesian bores have reduced aquifer pressure, standing water levels and spring-flows in the district. There is evidence of spatial separation within the spring pools where RFBE and the introduced fish gambusia (Gambusia holbrooki) co-occur, although both species are forced together when seasonal extremes affect spring size and water temperature. Gambusia was present in four of the five springs where RFBE populations have been lost. Four out of the five remaining subpopulations of RFBE are Gambusia free. Circumstantial evidence suggests that gambusia is a major threat to red-finned blue-eyes. The impact of Gambusia is probably exacerbated by domestic stock (cattle and sheep), feral goats and pigs that utilise the springs and can negatively affect water quality and flow patterns. Three attempts to translocate RFBE to apparently suitable springs elsewhere within the complex have failed. Opportunities to mitigate threats are discussed, along with directions for future research to improve management of this extremely threatened fish and habitat.

Modelling the movement of interacting cell populations: A moment dynamics approach

Mathematical models describing the movement of multiple interacting subpopulations are relevant to many biological and ecological processes. Standard mean-field partial differential equation descriptions of these processes suffer from the limitation that they implicitly neglect to incorporate the impact of spatial correlations and clustering. To overcome this, we derive a moment dynamics description of a discrete stochastic process which describes the spreading of distinct interacting subpopulations. In particular, we motivate our model by mimicking the geometry of two typical cell biology experiments. Comparing the performance of the moment dynamics model with a traditional mean-field model confirms that the moment dynamics approach always outperforms the traditional mean-field approach. To provide more general insight we summarise the performance of the moment dynamics model and the traditional mean-field model over a wide range of parameter regimes. These results help distinguish between those situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently strong, such that a moment dynamics model is required, from other situations where spatial correlation effects are sufficiently weak, such that a traditional mean-field model is adequate.

Significant features of the epidemiology of equine influenza in Queensland, Australia, 2007.

An outbreak of equine influenza (EI) caused by influenza A H3N8 subtype virus occurred in the Australian states of Queensland and New South Wales in August 2007. Infection in the Australian horse population was associated with the introduction of infection by horses from overseas. The first case of EI in Queensland was detected on 25 August 2007 at an equestrian sporting event. Infection subsequently spread locally and to other clusters through horse movements prior to the implementation of an official standstill. There were five main clusters of infected properties during this outbreak and several outliers, which were investigated to find the potential mechanism of disease spread. To contain the outbreak, Queensland was divided into infection status zones, with different movement controls applied to each zone. Vaccination was implemented strategically in infected areas and within horse subpopulations. Control and eventual eradication of EI from Queensland was achieved through a combination of quarantine, biosecurity measures, movement control, rapid diagnostic testing and vaccination.

The decline of northern malaria and population dynamics of Plamodium vivax

Europe was declared malaria free in 1975. The disappearance of malaria has traditionally been attributed to numerous deliberate actions like vector control, the screening of houses, more efficient medication etc. Malaria, however, disappeared from many countries like Finland before any counter measures had even started. The aim of this thesis is to study the population ecology of P. vivax and its interaction with the human host and the vector. By finding the factors that attributed to the extinction of vivax malaria it might be possible to improve the modern strategy against P. vivax. The parasite was studied with data from Finland, which provides the longest time series (1749-2008) of malaria statistics in the world. The malaria vectors, Anopheles messeae and A. beklemishevi are still common species in the country. The eradication of vivax malaria is difficult because the parasite has a dormant stage that can cause a relapse long after a primary infection. It was now shown that P. vivax is able to detect the presence of a potential vector. A dormant stage is triggered even from a bite of an uninfected Anopheles mosquito. This optimizes the chances for the Plasmodium to reach a mosquito vector for sexual reproduction. The longevity of the dormant stage could be shown to be at least nine years. The parasite spends several years in its human host and the behaviour of the human carrier had a profound impact on the decline of the disease in Finland. Malaria spring epidemics could be explained by a previous warm summer. Neither annual nor summer mean temperature had any impact on the long term malaria trend. Malaria disappeared slowly from Finland without mosquito control. The sociological change from extended families to nuclear families led to decreased household size. The decreased household size correlated strongly with the decline of malaria. That led to an increased isolation of the subpopulations of P. vivax. Their habitat consisted of the bedrooms in which human carriers slept together with the overwintering vectors. The isolation of the parasite ultimately led to the extinction of vivax malaria. Metapopulation models adapted to local conditions should therefore be implemented as a tool for settlement planning and socio-economic development and become an integrated part of the fight against malaria.

Revisiting genetic structuring in spotted gums (genus Corymbia section Maculatae) focusing on C. maculata, an early diverged, insular lineage

Species delineation in the spotted gum complex was revisited focusing on Corymbia maculata. This study expands the range of C. maculata analysed with microsatellite markers to include populations from the north of the species range. It supported earlier findings that it is a cohesive genetic entity, well resolved from northern spotted gum taxa, Corymbia citriodora and Corymbia henryi; and inferences that its insularity is due to early lineage divergence and historical isolation. The northern extent of C. maculata sampled, as defined by chloroplast and nuclear genomes predominantly of C. maculata character, was the location of Kiwarrak, south of the Manning River near Taree in New South Wales. Trees from a recognised intergrade zone at the Yarratt locality, around 26 km north of Kiwarrak, also possessed a uniquely C. maculata chloroplast haplotype, but their nuclear genomes were predominantly of northern taxa ancestry. Range expansion of northern taxa leading to southerly gene movement into populations formerly C. maculata, would account for this apparent instance of chloroplast capture. Two subpopulations were identified in C. maculata, a northern population of which the Ourimbah locality was the most southerly studied, and a southern population of which Wingello was the most northerly locality studied. Diminished levels of northern taxa ancestry, i.e. C. citriodora or C. henryi, in individuals from the southern, relative to the northern subpopulation of C. maculata, suggested that secondary contact with northern taxa contributes to its substructure.

Networks of stored grain diseases and pests: Strategies for sampling and mitigation

Pathogens and pests of stored grains move through complex dynamic networks linking fields, farms, and bulk storage facilities. Human transport and other forms of dispersal link the components of this network. A network model for pathogen and pest movement through stored grain systems is a first step toward new sampling and mitigation strategies that utilize information about the network structure. An understanding of network structure can be applied to identifying the key network components for pathogen or pest movement through the system. For example, it may be useful to identify a network node, such as a local grain storage facility, through which grain from a large number of fields will be accumulated and move through the network. This node may be particularly important for sampling and mitigation. In some cases more detailed information about network structure can identify key nodes that link two large sections of the network, such that management at the key nodes will greatly reduce the risk of spread between the two sections. In addition to the spread of particular species of pathogens and pests, we also evaluate the spread of problematic subpopulations, such as subpopulations with pesticide resistance. We present an analysis of stored grain pathogen and pest networks for Australia and the United States.

Individuals on the Move : Body Condition Dependent Dispersal and Quasi-Local Competition in Metapopulations

Individual movement is very versatile and inevitable in ecology. In this thesis, I investigate two kinds of movement body condition dependent dispersal and small-range foraging movements resulting in quasi-local competition and their causes and consequences on the individual, population and metapopulation level. Body condition dependent dispersal is a widely evident but barely understood phenomenon. In nature, diverse relationships between body condition and dispersal are observed. I develop the first models that study the evolution of dispersal strategies that depend on individual body condition. In a patchy environment where patches differ in environmental conditions, individuals born in rich (e.g. nutritious) patches are on average stronger than their conspecifics that are born in poorer patches. Body condition (strength) determines competitive ability such that stronger individuals win competition with higher probability than weak individuals. Individuals compete for patches such that kin competition selects for dispersal. I determine the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for different ecological scenarios. My models offer explanations for both dispersal of strong individuals and dispersal of weak individuals. Moreover, I find that within-family dispersal behaviour is not always reflected on the population level. This supports the fact that no consistent pattern is detected in data on body condition dependent dispersal. It also encourages the refining of empirical investigations. Quasi-local competition defines interactions between adjacent populations where one population negatively affects the growth of the other population. I model a metapopulation in a homogeneous environment where adults of different subpopulations compete for resources by spending part of their foraging time in the neighbouring patches, while their juveniles only feed on the resource in their natal patch. I show that spatial patterns (different population densities in the patches) are stable only if one age class depletes the resource very much but mainly the other age group depends on it.