A trader portfolio optimization of bilateral contracts in electricity retail markets

Electricity markets are systems for effecting the purchase and sale of electricity using supply and demand to set energy prices. Two major market models are often distinguished: pools and bilateral contracts. Pool prices tend to change quickly and variations are usually highly unpredictable. In this way, market participants often enter into bilateral contracts to hedge against pool price volatility. This article addresses the challenge of optimizing the portfolio of clients managed by trader agents. Typically, traders buy energy in day-ahead markets and sell it to a set of target clients, by negotiating bilateral contracts involving three-rate tariffs. Traders sell energy by considering the prices of a reference week and five different types of clients. They analyze several tariffs and determine the best share of customers, i.e., the share that maximizes profit. © 2014 IEEE.

Evaluating the use of in-store measures in retail food stores and restaurants in Brazil

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVE To assess inter-rater reliability, test-retest reliability, and construct validity of retail food store, open-air food market, and restaurant observation tools adapted to the Brazilian urban context.METHODS This study is part of a cross-sectional observation survey conducted in 13 districts across the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil in 2010-2011. Food store and restaurant observational tools were developed based on previously available tools, and then tested it. They included measures on the availability, variety, quality, pricing, and promotion of fruits and vegetables and ultra-processed foods. We used Kappa statistics and intra-class correlation coefficients to assess inter-rater and test-retest reliabilities in samples of 142 restaurants, 97 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), and of 62 restaurants and 45 retail food stores (including open-air food markets), respectively. Construct validity as the tool’s abilities to discriminate based on store types and different income contexts were assessed in the entire sample: 305 retail food stores, 8 fruits and vegetable markets, and 472 restaurants.RESULTS Inter-rater and test-retest reliability were generally high, with most Kappa values greater than 0.70 (range 0.49-1.00). Both tools discriminated between store types and neighborhoods with different median income. Fruits and vegetables were more likely to be found in middle to higher-income neighborhoods, while soda, fruit-flavored drink mixes, cookies, and chips were cheaper and more likely to be found in lower-income neighborhoods.CONCLUSIONS The measures were reliable and able to reveal significant differences across store types and different contexts. Although some items may require revision, results suggest that the tools may be used to reliably measure the food stores and restaurant food environment in urban settings of middle-income countries. Such studies can help .inform health promotion interventions and policies in these contexts.

The application of Basel III in Portugal: previsions based on 2012 and 2013 banking balance-sheets

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) introduced new regulations for banking supervision in December 2010, better known as Basel III recommendations that aimed at guaranteeing the solidity of banks worldwide and the mitigation of new banking crises risks. The European Union transposed these directives through the Credit Review Directives IV (CRD IV). Portugal adopted CRD IV by a new decree-law no. 157/2014, on 24 th October 2014, enforced from 24 th November 2014. While individual banks have been given the option of using the internal ratings based method, this study analyses the compliance levels of all Portuguese banking institutions using the standard method, also prescribed by BCBS. Our results show that out of thirteen banks on 31-12-2013 only five banks were in a comfortable position and the remaining eight could not reach the minimum requirements set up by BCBS for 1-1-2014.

Prevenção e mitigação do risco de incumprimento mais eficaz na banca de retalho

O âmbito deste trabalho é o da prevenção e mitigação do risco de uma carteira de crédito de um Banco de retalho, com uma quota significativa no mercado Português. A antecipação de potencial incumprimento é crítica para a atuação atempada do Banco junto dos clientes. Pretendeu-se analisar o poder preditivo de uma base de informação exógena (a Central) que inclui as responsabilidades creditícias dos clientes do Banco no Sistema Financeiro Português. As principais fases deste trabalho consistiram na análise e estruturação da informação da Central, de modo a integrá-la com a do Banco, compreensão das condicionantes desta informação, nomeadamente o desfasamento temporal, e finalmente, no desenvolvimento de um modelo de scoring, compatível com os sistemas e tecnologias do Banco, e de modo a alavancar o processo existente.

Significance of Biogenic Amines in Cold-Smoked Fish and Their Relation to Microbiological Characteristics of Products Available in Portuguese Retail Markets

Studies on microbial characterization of cold-smoked salmon and salmon trout during cold storage were performed on samples available in the Portuguese market. Samples were also classified microbiologically according to guidelines for ready-to-eat (RTE) products. Further investigations on sample variability and microbial abilities to produce tyramine and histamine were also performed. The coefficient of variation for viable counts of different groups of microorganisms of samples collected at retail market point was high in the first 2 wk of storage, mainly in the Enterobacteriaceae group and aerobic plate count (APC), suggesting that microbiological characteristics of samples were different in numbers, even within the same batch from the same producer. This variation seemed to be decreased when storage and temperature were controlled under lab conditions. The numbers of Enterobacteriaceae were influenced by storage temperature, as indicated by low microbial numbers in samples from controlled refrigeration. Lactic acid bacteria (LAB) and Enterobacteriaceae were predominant in commercial products, a significant percentage of which were tyramine and less histamine producers. These results might be influenced by (1) the technological processes in the early stages of production, (2) contamination during the smoking process, and (3) conditions and temperature fluctuations during cold storage at retail market point of sale.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Understanding the internet banking adoption by Portuguese customers - a unified theory of acceptance and use of technology and perceived risk application.

Trabalho de Projeto apresentado como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Mobilie Banking adoption: a novel in the portuguese context

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Estatística e Gestão de Informação

Mergers and acquisitions in the banking sector: An empirical review of the impact of merger announcement on abnormal returns

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Capital requirements and loan market conditions insight into the Portuguese banking system (2004-2011)

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The compliance function in banking: Perspective and future in the age of globalization

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Regulation and disclosure about financial instruments: Evidence on financial reporting in the Portuguese banking sector

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Jerónimo Martins, SGPS: Food retail: Equity Investment Report

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Sonae SGPS: Retail/Holding: Equity Investment Report

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Jerónimo Martins SGPS: Portugal retail: Equity Investment Report

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics