Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Responsible innovation: bringing together technology assessment, applied ethics, and STS research

Paper presented as "key note" at the Doctorate Conference on Technology Assessment in June 2011, at FCT-UNL, Monte de Caparica.

Does it pay to be social responsible? Portuguese SMEs feedback

The research on corporate social responsibility has been focused mainly on Anglo-Saxon countries and big companies. Most scholars agree there is a positive relationship between companies social and economic performance, however, this is not unanimous. Moreover,during economic downturns, companies struggle for survival and might consider corporate social responsibility efforts should be postponed. This research investigates if there is a positive relationship between social performance and key business results using a large sample of small and medium Portuguese companies over an extended period of time. The research results support the existence of valid positive relationships between companies’ social performance and key business results, confirming it does pay to invest in corporate social responsibility even in less favorable economic scenarios and for small and medium companies across all business sectors.

The integration of online advertising: The effects of source expertise and certainty level of the message on consumer involvement and persuasion in the context of user-generated advertising

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of corporate social responsibility on consumer behavior: The role of profit-seeking and altruistic perceived motives

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Smart metering consumer behavior study in the Republic of Ireland: Further analyses on the consumers’ electricity consumptions and usage perceptions

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of the social class on the development of money knowledge

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Structural and functional characterization of the gene products responsible for phototrophic iron oxidation by purple bacteria

Dissertação para a obtenção de grau de doutor em Bioquímica pelo Instituto de Tecnologia Química e Biológica. Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Medium-short-term and repetition effects of advergames on children consumer behaviour

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Education for sustainable development – How are Portuguese children being educated in order to become responsible consumers

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Children consumer behaviour field lab: The Nestum consumer

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The impact of the measurement unit of unit price on consumer preference and choice

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The dilution effect: The influence of expertise and abstraction on consumer's judgements of products

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Which consumer capabilities are actually triggered by children in-store?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Sustainability and consumer responses: The effect of bad industry reputation and fit

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics