风险偏好为什么是不稳定的？——后悔调节风险偏好的理论探索

Emotion is one of the most popular spots in recent decision making research, while regret is always being considered as the most relevant emotion with decision making. Current article firstly reviewed the literature of regret theory to date to profile the relation between regret and decision making under uncertainty through three mainlines: experienced regret, anticipated regret and regret orientation, respectively. And then, based on the theory of regret regulation raised by Zeelenberg recently, we came up with a theory of risk preference regulated by regret. Then three studies were conducted under the current framework, by using experiment, survey, and quasi experiment design. The major findings were below: In study 1, when playing ultimatum game, risk preference in decision making can be determined by experienced regret and anticipated regret of risk aversion, which made individual risk taking; In study 2, survey showed that risk orientation was negatively related with risk taking (health/safety, recreational and social); In study 3, when asked the Asian Disease Problem, risk preference can be determined by the coherence of the risk preference between the past decision and the current alternative. Individuals much more like alternative with the same risk preference of the past decision. A two way interaction was found, regret orientation, as a personality, was found as a moderator. Individuals with high regret orientation were more sensitive to the coherence of the risk preference than those with low regret orientation. Three studies provide fruitful evidences for the theory of risk preference regulated by regret in different prospective, show us the function of regret in decision making.

Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. © 1963-2012 IEEE.

The relationship between counterfactual thinking and emotional reactions to event outcomes: Does one account fit all?

By enabling a comparison between what is and what might have been, counterfactual thoughts amplify our emotional responses to bad outcomes. Well-known demonstrations such as the action effect (the tendency to attribute most regret to a character whose actions brought about a bad outcome) and the temporal order effect (the tendency to undo the last in a series of events leading up to a bad outcome) are often explained in this way. An important difference between these effects is that outcomes are due to decisions in the action effect, whereas in the temporal order effect outcomes are achieved by chance. In Experiment 1, we showed that imposing time pressure leads to a significant reduction in the action but not in the temporal order effect. In Experiment 2, we found that asking participants to evaluate the protagonists (

Adolescent men's attitudes and decision-making in relation to an unplanned pregnancy. Responses to an interactive video drama

This study confronts a gender bias in research on adolescent pregnancy by exploring adolescent men’s decisions relating to a hypothetical unplanned pregnancy. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with adolescent men (N = 360) aged between 14 and 18 years attending schools in the Republic of Ireland. The study, the first of its kind in Europe, extends the small body of evidence on adolescent men and pregnancy decision-making by developing and examining reactions to an interactive video drama used in a comparable study in Australia. In addition, we tested a more comprehensive range of sociological and psychological determinants of adolescent men’s decisions regarding an unplanned pregnancy. Results showed that adolescent men were more likely to choose to keep the baby in preference to abortion or adoption. Adolescent men’s choice to continue the pregnancy (keep or adopt) in preference to abortion was significantly associated with anticipated feelings of regret in relation to abortion, perceived positive attitudes of own mother to keeping the baby and a feeling that a part of them might want a baby. Religiosity was also shown to underlie adolescent men’s views on the perceived consequences of an abortion in their lives.

Adaptive NormalHedge for robust visual tracking

In this paper, we propose a novel visual tracking framework, based on a decision-theoretic online learning algorithm namely NormalHedge. To make NormalHedge more robust against noise, we propose an adaptive NormalHedge algorithm, which exploits the historic information of each expert to perform more accurate prediction than the standard NormalHedge. Technically, we use a set of weighted experts to predict the state of the target to be tracked over time. The weight of each expert is online learned by pushing the cumulative regret of the learner towards that of the expert. Our simulation experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive NormalHedge, compared to the standard NormalHedge method. Furthermore, the experimental results of several challenging video sequences show that the proposed tracking method outperforms several state-of-the-art methods.

An Ambiguity Aversion Framework of Security Game under Ambiguities

Security is a critical concern around the world. Since resources for security are always limited, lots of interest have arisen in using game theory to handle security resource allocation problems. However, most of the existing work does not address adequately how a defender chooses his optimal strategy in a game with absent, inaccurate, uncertain, and even ambiguous strategy profiles' payoffs. To address this issue, we propose a general framework of security games under ambiguities based on Dempster-Shafer theory and the ambiguity aversion principle of minimax regret. Then, we reveal some properties of this framework. Also, we present two methods to reduce the influence of complete ignorance. Our investigation shows that this new framework is better in handling security resource allocation problems under ambiguities.

Game-­theoretic Resource Allocation with Real-­time Probabilistic Surveillance Information

Game-theoretic security resource allocation problems have generated significant interest in the area of designing and developing security systems. These approaches traditionally utilize the Stackelberg game model for security resource scheduling in order to improve the protection of critical assets. The basic assumption in Stackelberg games is that a defender will act first, then an attacker will choose their best response after observing the defender’s strategy commitment (e.g., protecting a specific asset). Thus, it requires an attacker’s full or partial observation of a defender’s strategy. This assumption is unrealistic in real-time threat recognition and prevention. In this paper, we propose a new solution concept (i.e., a method to predict how a game will be played) for deriving the defender’s optimal strategy based on the principle of acceptable costs of minimax regret. Moreover, we demonstrate the advantages of this solution concept by analyzing its properties.

Establishing a population-based patient-reported outcomes study (PROMs) using national cancer registries across two jurisdictions: The Prostate Cancer Treatment, your experience (PiCTure) study

Objective: To establish an international patient-reported outcomes (PROMs) study among prostate cancer survivors, up to 18 years postdiagnosis, in two countries with different healthcare systems and ethical frameworks. Design: A cross-sectional, postal survey of prostate cancer survivors sampled and recruited via two population-based cancer registries. Healthcare professionals (HCPs) evaluated patients for eligibility to participate. Questionnaires contained validated instruments to assess health-related quality of life and psychological well-being, including QLQ-C30, QLQPR-25, EQ-5D-5L, 21-question Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21) and the Decisional Regret Scale. Setting: Republic of Ireland (RoI) and Northern Ireland (NI). Primary outcome measures: Registration completeness, predictors of eligibility and response, data missingness, unweighted and weighted PROMs. Results: Prostate cancer registration was 80% (95% CI 75% to 84%) and 91% (95% CI 89% to 93%) complete 2 years postdiagnosis in NI and RoI, respectively. Of 12 322 survivors sampled from registries, 53% (n=6559) were classified as eligible following HCP screening. In the multivariate analysis, significant predictors of eligibility were: being ≤59 years of age at diagnosis (p<0.001), short-term survivor (<5 years postdiagnosis; p<0.001) and from RoI (p<0.001). 3348 completed the questionnaire, yielding a 54% adjusted response rate. 13% of men or their families called the study freephone with queries for assistance with questionnaire completion or to talk about their experience. Significant predictors of response in multivariate analysis were: being ≤59 years at diagnosis (p<0.001) and from RoI (p=0.016). Mean number of missing questions in validated instruments ranged from 0.12 (SD 0.71; EQ-5D-5L) to 3.72 (SD 6.30; QLQ-PR25). Weighted and unweighted mean EQ-5D-5L, QLQ-C30 and QLQ-PR25 scores were similar, as were the weighted and unweighted prevalences of depression, anxiety and distress. Conclusions: It was feasible to perform PROMs studies across jurisdictions, using cancer registries as sampling frames; we amassed one of the largest, international, population-based data set of prostate cancer survivors. We highlight improvements which could inform future PROMs studies, including utilising general practitioners to assess eligibility and providing a freephone service.

Necessidades de formação em educação para a saúde em contexto escolar: contributos para os currículos de enfermagem

Tese de Doutoramento, Educação (Desenvolvimento Curricular), 9 de Dezembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

OEuvres de « maistre ALAIN CHARRETIER ».

Commençant par : « Les faicts maistre Alain Charetier. « Tous charetiers, tant parfaiz que imparfaiz... » et finissant par : « Aux autres du tout m'en rapporte, Car, quant à moy, j'ai fait mon cours, La mercy Dieu ! etc. » . Contenant : Un quatrain et un huitain à la louange d'Alain Chartier, — « Le Livre de l'Esperance » (fol. 2), — « Le Curial » (fol. 61), — « Le Quadriloge » (fol. 66), — « La Genealogie des roys de France depuis Sainct Loys » (fol. 89), — Division des Gaules, d'après César (fol. 92), — Le Lai de la Paix (fol. 95), — « Le Breviaire des nobles » (fol. 99), — « Le Livre de Reveille-matin » (fol. 105), — « La Belle Dame sans mercy » (fol. 111), — « Complainte et supplication envoiée aux dames par les poursuivans et loiaulx serviteurs de la court amoureuse du dieu d'amours » (fol. 123), — « Le tres gracièux Livre des quatre dames, compilé et fait par maistre Alain l'an mil.CCCCXXXIII. » (fol. 134), — « L'Ospital d'amour » (fol. 162), — « La Complainte de saint Valentin Gransson » (fol. 172), — « La Pastourele de Gransson » (fol. 174), — « Quatre Complaintes » (fol. 176-180), — « Complainte faicte à Paris, baillée et presentée par l'amant à sa dame en l'an mil.CCCC. cinquante deux » (fol. 180), — « D'un amoureux parlant à sa dame par amours » (fol. 181), — « Lay de plaisance » (fol. 184), — « Le Regret d'un amoureux sur la mort de sa dame » (fol. 186), — Quatre ballades (fol. 189), ayant pour refrains : 1 « En tout honneur et en faicts et en dicts ». 2 « Pour assémbler la passive en l'actif ». 3 « Puis que de vous approcher je ne puis ». 4 « Si fois je aussi d'amours et de ma dame ». — « Le Regime de Fortune, en sept balades » (fol. 190), — « La Balade de Fougieres, que les Anglois, anciens ennemis de France, prindrent pendant et durant les treves, comme parjures » (fol. 191), — « Autre Balade » (fol. 193), ayant pour Refrain : « Par offenser et prendre autruy demaine », — Rondeau, ayant pour Refrain : « La mercy Dieu ».

Français 2373

Contient : 1° « Le Regret d'honneur foeminin et des troys graces sur le trespas de noble dame Françoyse de Foix, dame de Chasteaubriant et mirouer de noblesse foeminine, par FRANÇOYS DE SAGON, secretaire de l'abbé de Sainct Ebvroul » ; 2° « Dixain de la dame comparée au miroer » (fol. 14). Premier vers : « Cy gist le verre et miroer reluysant » ; 3° « Aultre Dixain pour epitaphe dudict miroer des dames ». Premier vers : « Soubz ce tumbeau gist ung miroer cassé » ; 4° « Quatrain ». Premier vers : Ce miroer par la mort cassé » ; 5° « Distichon ejusdem autoris » (fol. 15). Premier vers : « Forma, fides et amor, muliebris splendor honoris » ; 6° « Ejusdem ad seipsum ». Premier vers : Foelicem fortuna facit, Francisce, fidelem » ; 7° « Exastichon de eadem Francisca post obitum, per HUGERIUM ». Premier vers : « Magnus Alexander foelicem dixit Achillem »

John Adams Smith letter, Jan. 14, 1813

Transcript: New York Jan. 14. 1813. My dear uncle, I had nearly concluded to have made my [jaunt?] earlier than I had mentioned in my last letter to you, for Swartout had intended to have written by me to Father & yourself; having [Louisa?] concluded not so soon to depart he sends me his letters which I forward in mail, I shall hope to have letters from home soon, it is a great pleasure to hear from any of you. I said last week in Hollands letter mentioning [bladeworth?] account, I have explained to him. It is a mistake about me agreeing to pay Mr. [Dening?] [their?] account. Caroline mentions to me your jaunt to [Sophia?], but I regret our friend there should be unpleasantly situated. I have not yet seen Col. Willett but will see him as mentioned. I have neglected to go there for some time which has been remiss in me. We have nothing new I believe unless it be that Armstrong & Jones of Philadelphia have been nominated as Secretarys of War & the Navy & [cer?] this in all probability may be appointed. There may be room for speculation, but perhaps it is not probable that Canada will be ceded to American Valor in the year 1813. There is a Bill before congress by which it may be made penal to enter on board American vessels, either British subjects or naturalized Americans, which it is presoomed by many will [spon?] the accommodation of Peace – may be yes may be no – the proof of the pudding is in the eating of it. I imagine pacification is not so near at hand although it is much to be desired. Whatever might be for the honor & prosperity of the Country I would strenuously advocate, aloof from partial & party considerations. We have not a word as yet what the Council at Albany may be thinking of as yet. I suppose these things will come in time, perhaps untimely to many. I desire for the present not to be found among the untimely. I am your sincerely, with love to all. John Adams Smith

Letter - Bliss Carman to Ethelwyn Wetherald, 15 Decemer 1897

This letter from William Bliss Carman to Ethelwyn Wetherald in 1897, includes a photo of Carman with Miss M. B. Stevenson from the year 1927. Carman, originally from Canada, had great success as

À propos de The Practice of Liberal Pluralism de William Galston : un dialogue avec l’auteur

Document de travail

L’expérience vécue par les mères haïtiennes vivant à Port-au-Prince ayant donné leur enfant en adoption internationale

Depuis quelques années, l’adoption internationale a pris une importance croissante dans le monde, particulièrement en Haïti. Chaque année, plusieurs centaines d’enfants quittent Haïti pour l’étranger par ce biais. Depuis les années 1990, le nombre d’adoptions ne cesse d’augmenter. Pourtant, la majorité de ces enfants ne sont ni orphelins, ni abandonnés : ce sont les familles d’origine qui amènent leurs enfants aux crèches (orphelinats). De ce fait, il est d’une importance capitale d’avoir les points de vue des familles qui ont vécu cette expérience pour comprendre les raisons qui les poussent à faire un tel choix. L’objectif principal de cette recherche est de mieux comprendre l’expérience vécue par les mères haïtiennes vivant à Port-au-Prince ayant donné leur enfant en adoption internationale. De façon plus spécifique, il s’agit de comprendre les attentes et les motivations des mères face au projet d’adoption, le sens qu’elles donnent à ce projet et la manière dont elles ont vécu cette séparation. Pour ce faire, 15 entrevues semi-dirigées ont été réalisées avec des mères ayant donné leurs enfants en adoption. Les résultats de cette étude nous ont permis de comprendre que les raisons qui poussent les mères à abandonner leur enfant en adoption sont multiples et complexes. Les problèmes de santé, de logement, d’emploi, l’absence du père, etc., sont autant de raisons avancées par les mères. Pour ces dernières, l’adoption peut être considérée comme une aide à l’enfance, une façon de sauver l’enfant de la misère ou une solution de sauvetage. Par ailleurs, au moment de confier leurs enfants en adoption, les mères ont signé des documents, mais elles semblent ne pas en connaître les contenus. De plus, le manque d’information sur le devenir de l’enfant et le regard de la société poussent les mères à éprouver des regrets, de la tristesse, de la honte, des craintes, des peurs, etc. Les mères développent également certaines stratégies pour forcer les responsables des crèches ou de l’Institut du bien-être social et de recherches (IBESR) à les informer sur l’évolution de leurs enfants. Outre le retour de l’enfant à sa majorité, les mères ont des attentes matérielles et économiques par rapport à l’enfant, aux responsables des crèches et aux familles adoptives.