Prognostic Value of a New Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing Parameter in Chronic Heart Failure: Oxygen Uptake Efficiency at Peak Exercise - Comparison with Oxygen Uptake Efficiency Slope

INTRODUCTION: A growing body of evidence shows the prognostic value of oxygen uptake efficiency slope (OUES), a cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameter derived from the logarithmic relationship between O(2) consumption (VO(2)) and minute ventilation (VE) in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prognostic value of a new CPET parameter - peak oxygen uptake efficiency (POUE) - and to compare it with OUES in patients with CHF. METHODS: We prospectively studied 206 consecutive patients with stable CHF due to dilated cardiomyopathy - 153 male, aged 53.3±13.0 years, 35.4% of ischemic etiology, left ventricular ejection fraction 27.7±8.0%, 81.1% in sinus rhythm, 97.1% receiving ACE-Is or ARBs, 78.2% beta-blockers and 60.2% spironolactone - who performed a first maximal symptom-limited treadmill CPET, using the modified Bruce protocol. In 33% of patients an cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) or cardiac resynchronization therapy device (CRT-D) was implanted during follow-up. Peak VO(2), percentage of predicted peak VO(2), VE/VCO(2) slope, OUES and POUE were analyzed. OUES was calculated using the formula VO(2) (l/min) = OUES (log(10)VE) + b. POUE was calculated as pVO(2) (l/min) / log(10)peakVE (l/min). Correlation coefficients between the studied parameters were obtained. The prognosis of each variable adjusted for age was evaluated through Cox proportional hazard models and R2 percent (R2%) and V index (V6) were used as measures of the predictive accuracy of events of each of these variables. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves from logistic regression models were used to determine the cut-offs for OUES and POUE. RESULTS: pVO(2): 20.5±5.9; percentage of predicted peak VO(2): 68.6±18.2; VE/VCO(2) slope: 30.6±8.3; OUES: 1.85±0.61; POUE: 0.88±0.27. During a mean follow-up of 33.1±14.8 months, 45 (21.8%) patients died, 10 (4.9%) underwent urgent heart transplantation and in three patients (1.5%) a left ventricular assist device was implanted. All variables proved to be independent predictors of this combined event; however, VE/VCO2 slope was most strongly associated with events (HR 11.14). In this population, POUE was associated with a higher risk of events than OUES (HR 9.61 vs. 7.01), and was also a better predictor of events (R2: 28.91 vs. 22.37). CONCLUSION: POUE was more strongly associated with death, urgent heart transplantation and implantation of a left ventricular assist device and proved to be a better predictor of events than OUES. These results suggest that this new parameter can increase the prognostic value of CPET in patients with CHF.

Step based physical activity guidelines for preschool-aged children

Objective Public health organizations recommend that preschool-aged children accumulate at least 3 h of physical activity (PA) daily. Objective monitoring using pedometers offers an opportunity to measure preschooler's PA and assess compliance with this recommendation. The purpose of this study was to derive step-based recommendations consistent with the 3 h PA recommendation for preschool-aged children. Method The study sample comprised 916 preschool-aged children, aged 3 to 6 years (mean age = 5.0 ± 0.8 years). Children were recruited from kindergartens located in Portugal, between 2009 and 2013. Children wore an ActiGraph GT1M accelerometer that measured PA intensity and steps per day simultaneously over a 7-day monitoring period. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify the daily step count threshold associated with meeting the daily 3 hour PA recommendation. Results A significant correlation was observed between minutes of total PA and steps per day (r = 0.76, p < 0.001). The optimal step count for ≥ 3 h of total PA was 9099 steps per day (sensitivity (90%) and specificity (66%)) with area under the ROC curve = 0.86 (95% CI: 0.84 to 0.88). Conclusion Preschool-aged children who accumulate less than 9000 steps per day may be considered Insufficiently Active.

C-reactive protein at 24 hours after hospital admission may have relevant prognostic accuracy in acute pancreatitis: a retrospective cohort study

Introduction: C-reactive protein (CRP) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) have been used in early risk assessment of patients with AP. Objectives: We evaluated prognostic accuracy of CRP at 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) for in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP individually and with BISAP. Materials and Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 134 patients with AP from a Portuguese hospital in 2009---2010. Prognostic accuracy assessment used area under receiver---operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Results: Thirteen percent of patients had severe AP, 26% developed pancreatic necrosis, and 7% died during index hospital stay. AUCs for CRP24 and BISAP individually were 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65---0.95) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.59---0.95), respectively. No patients with CRP24 <60 mg/l died (P = 0.027; negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.3---100%)). AUC for BISAP plus CRP24 was 0.81 (95% CI 0.65---0.97). Change in NRI nonevents (42.4%; 95% CI, 24.9---59.9%) resulted in positive overall NRI (31.3%; 95% CI, − 36.4% to 98.9%), but IDI nonevents was negligible (0.004; 95% CI, − 0.007 to 0.014). Conclusions: CRP24 revealed good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP; its main role may be the selection of lowest risk patients.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness and Carotid Plaques Improves Prediction of Obstructive Angiographic Coronary Artery Disease in Women

Does carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a surrogate marker of cardiovascular events, have predictive incremental value over established risk factors for stable coronary artery disease (CAD)? Prospective study of 300 patients, with suspected stable CAD, admitted for an elective coronary angiography and carotid ultrasound. The CAD patients had a higher cIMT, which showed a modest predictive accuracy for CAD (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.638, 95% confidence interval 0.576-0.701, P < .001). The cIMT was an independent predictor of CAD, together with age, gender, and diabetes. C-statistic for CAD prediction by traditional risk factors was not significantly different from a model that included cIMT, carotid plaque presence, or both. However, in women, it was significantly increased by the addition of cIMT or carotid plaque presence. Although cIMT cannot be used as a sole indicator of CAD, it should be considered in the panel of investigations that is requested, particularly in women who are candidates for coronary angiography.

Quantification of the TMS-EEG response in epilepsy

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

C-reactive protein in early risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

ABSTRACT:C-reactive protein (CRP) has been widely used in the early risk assessment of patients with acute pancreatitis (AP), but unclear aspects about its prognostic accuracy in this setting persist. This project evaluated first CRP prognostic accuracy for severity, pancreatic necrosis (PNec), and in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP in terms of the best timing for CRP measurement and the optimal CRP cutoff points. Secondly it was evaluated the CRP measured at approximately 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) prognostic accuracy for IM in AP individually and in a combined model with a recent developed tool for the early risk assessment of patients with AP, the Bedside Index for Severity in AP (BISAP). Two single-centre retrospective cohort studies were held. The first study included 379 patients and the second study included 134 patients. Statistical methods such as the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, and the integrated discrimination improvement were used. It was found that CRP measured at approximately 48 hours after hospital admission (CRP48) had a prognostic accuracy for severity, PNec, and IM in AP better than CRP measured at any other timing. It was observed that the optimal CRP48 cutoff points for severity, PNec, and IM in AP varied from 170mg/l to 190mg/l, values greater than the one most often recommended in the literature – 150mg/l. It was found that CRP24 had a good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP and that the cutoff point of 60mg/l had a negative predictive value of 100%. Finally it was observed that the prognostic accuracy of a combined model including BISAP and CRP24 for IM in AP could perform better than the BISAP alone model. These results might have a direct impact on the early risk assessment of patients with AP in the daily clinical practice.--------- RESUMO: A proteina c-reactiva (CRP) tem sido largamente usada na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com pancreatite aguda (AP), mas aspectos duvidosos acerca do seu valor prognóstico neste contexto persistem. Este projecto avaliou primeiro o valor prognóstico da CRP para a gravidade, a necrose pancreática (PNec) e a mortalidade intra-hospitalar (IM) na AP em termos do melhor momento para efectuar a sua medição e dos seus pontos-de-corte óptimos. Em segundo lugar foi avaliado o valor prognóstico da proteína c-reactiva medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) para a IM na AP isoladamente e num modelo combinado, que incluiu uma ferramenta de avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP recentemente desenvolvida, o Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP). Dois estudos unicêntricos de coorte retrospectivo foram realizados. O primeiro estudo incluiu 379 doentes e o segundo estudo incluiu 134 doentes. Metodologias estatísticas como o teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, a area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, o net reclassification improvement e o integrated discrimination improvement foram usadas. Verificou-se que a CRP medida às 48 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP48) teve um valor prognóstico para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP melhor do que a CRP medida em qualquer outro momento. Observou-se que os pontos de corte óptimos da CRP48 para a gravidade, a PNec e a IM na AP variaram entre 170mg/l e 190mg/l, valores acima do valor mais frequentemente recomendado na literatura – 150mg/l. Verificou-se que a CRP medida aproximadamente às 24 horas após a admissão hospitalar (CRP24) teve um bom valor prognóstico para a IM na AP e que o ponto de corte 60mg/l teve um valor preditivo negativo de 100%. Finalmente observou-se que o valor prognóstico de um modelo combinado incluindo o BISAP e a CRP24 para a IM na AP pode ter um desempenho melhor do que o do BISAP isoladamente. Estes resultados podem ter um impacto directo na avaliação precoce do risco em doentes com AP na prática clínica diária.

Thrombocytopenia as a surrogate marker of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis in endemic areas for Schistosomiasis mansoni

Introduction This study aimed to evaluate whether a low platelet count is a good surrogate marker of hepatosplenic schistosomiasis (HSS) in a rural area of Brazil. A small district in southeastern Brazil, with a population of 1,543 individuals and a 23% prevalence of schistosomiasis, was selected for this investigation. Methods In July 2012, 384 volunteers were subjected to clinical, ultrasonography (US), and laboratory examinations, including stool sample analysis. The HSS patients were classified into four groups: Group 1 consisted of patients with a spleen >13cm and liver fibrosis; Group 2 consisted of patients with a palpable spleen and spleen>13cm measured by US; Group 3 consisted of patients with a spleen >13cm measured by US; and Group 4 consisted of patients with a palpable spleen. Results Eight patients were in Group 1 (2.1%), twenty-one were in Group 2 (5.5%), eight were in Group 3 (2.1%), and eighteen were in Group 4 (4.7%). A significant difference in the mean platelet counts was observed between the patients with and without HSS (p<0.01). Based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (platelet count <143,000/mm3), the sensitivity was greater than 92% in all groups, and the specificity varied from 44.4% to 75%. Conclusions We concluded that in endemic areas, thrombocytopenia demonstrates good sensitivity for detecting HSS and may be used as a screening tool to identify patients with HSS.

Evaluation of the reference value for the Montenegro skin test

Abstract:INTRODUCTION:The Montenegro skin test (MST) has good clinical applicability and low cost for the diagnosis of American tegumentary leishmaniasis (ATL). However, no studies have validated the reference value (5mm) typically used to discriminate positive and negative results. We investigated MST results and evaluated its performance using different cut-off points.METHODS:The results of laboratory tests for 4,256 patients with suspected ATL were analyzed, and 1,182 individuals were found to fulfill the established criteria. Two groups were formed. The positive cutaneous leishmaniasis (PCL) group included patients with skin lesions and positive direct search for parasites (DS) results. The negative cutaneous leishmaniasis (NCL) group included patients with skin lesions with evolution up to 2 months, negative DS results, and negative indirect immunofluorescence assay results who were residents of urban areas that were reported to be probable sites of infection at domiciles and peridomiciles.RESULTS:The PCL and NCL groups included 769 and 413 individuals, respectively. The mean ± standard deviation MST in the PCL group was 12.62 ± 5.91mm [95% confidence interval (CI): 12.20-13.04], and that in the NCL group was 1.43 ± 2.17mm (95% CI: 1.23-1.63). Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis indicated 97.4% sensitivity and 93.9% specificity for a cut-off of 5mm and 95.8% sensitivity and 97.1% specificity for a cut-off of 6mm.CONCLUSIONS:Either 5mm or 6mm could be used as the cut-off value for diagnosing ATL, as both values had high sensitivity and specificity.

Diagnosis of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: tuberculin test versus interferon-gamma release

Abstract: INTRODUCTION: The treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis (TB) and the identification and treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) contacts are the two most important strategies for the control of TB. The objective of this study was compare the performance of tuberculin skin testing (TST) with QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) in the diagnosis of LTBI in contacts of patients with active TB. METHODS: Cross-sectional analytical study with 60 contacts of patients with active pulmonary TB. A blood sample of each contact was taken for interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and subsequently performed the TST. A receiver operating characteristic curve was generated to assess the cutoff points and the sensitivity, predictive values, and accuracy were calculated. The agreement between IGRA and TST results was evaluated by Kappa coefficient. RESULTS: Here, 67.9% sensitivity, 84.4% specificity, 79.1% PPV, 75% NPV, and 76.7% accuracy were observed for the 5mm cutoff point. The prevalence of LTBI determined by TST and IGRA was 40% and 46.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Both QuantiFERON-TB Gold In TUBE(r) and TST showed good performance in LTBI diagnosis. The creation of specific diagnostic methods is necessary for the diagnosis of LTBI with higher sensitivity and specificity, preferably with low cost and not require a return visit for reading because with early treatment of latent forms can prevent active TB.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Aplicação da metodologia ROC na avaliação de desempenho de índices de gravidade clínica em unidades de neonatologia de Portugal

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia Industrial e de Sistemas

Sono e adolescência: quantas horas os adolescentes precisam dormir?

Objetivo Determinar a especificidade e a sensibilidade de uma medida para apontar o melhor ponto de corte para a duração de sono como preditor da sonolência diurna excessiva em adolescentes. Métodos Participaram do estudo 1.359 adolescentes, com idades de 14 a 21 anos, de duas cidades do sul do Brasil, que responderam a questionário de hábitos de sono e sonolência diurna. Utilizou-se a Receiver Operating Characteristic para estimar a capacidade preditiva da duração de sono para a sonolência diurna excessiva. Resultados A média de duração do sono para os adolescentes com sonolência diurna excessiva foi de 7,9 horas e para aqueles sem sonolência diurna excessiva foi de 8,33 horas (p < 0,001). A prevalência de sonolência diurna excessiva foi de 35,7%. Foi observada correlação significativa e negativa entre a duração do sono e as idades analisadas (p < 0,001). A análise de Receiver Operating Characteristic indicou duração mínima de 8,33 horas como proteção para a sonolência diurna excessiva. Conclusão Foi observada alta prevalência de sonolência diurna excessiva e propõe-se como possível duração de sono um mínimo de 8,33 horas nos dias com aula para que os adolescentes evitem esse desfecho.

Prospective assessment of different indices of cardiac risk for patients undergoing noncardiac surgeries

OBJECTIVE: To compare the accuracy of 4 different indices of cardiac risk currently used for predicting perioperative cardiac complications. METHODS: We studied 119 patients at a university-affiliated hospital whose cardiac assessment had been required for noncardiac surgery. Predictive factors of high risk for perioperative cardiac complications were assessed through clinical history and physical examination, and the patients were followed up after surgery until the 4th postoperative day to assess the occurrence of cardiac events. All patients were classified according to 4 indices of cardiac risk: the Goldman risk-factor index, Detsky modified risk index, Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification and their compared accuracies, examining the areas under their respective receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: Cardiac complications occurred in 16% of the patients. The areas under the ROC curves were equal for the Goldman risk-factor index, the Larsen index, and the American Society of Anesthesiologists' physical status classification: 0.48 (SEM ± 0.03). For the Detsky index, the value found was 0.38 (SEM ± 0.03). This difference in the values was not statistically significant. CONCLUSION: The cardiac risk indices currently used did not show a better accuracy than that obtained randomly. None of the indices proved to be significantly better than the others. Studies to improve our ability to predict such complications are still required.

Indicadores antropométricos de obesidade como instrumento de triagem para risco coronariano elevado em adultos na cidade de Salvador - Bahia

OBJETIVO: Comparar vários indicadores antropométricos de obesidade e identificar dentre eles qual melhor discrimina o risco coronariano elevado (RCE). MÉTODOS: Estudo de corte transversal, com amostra composta por 968 adultos de 30 a 74 anos de idade, sendo 391 (40,4%) do sexo masculino. Foram construídas diversas curvas Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) e comparadas às áreas sob as mesmas entre o índice de conicidade (índice C), índice de massa corporal (IMC), razão circunferência cintura-quadril (RCCQ), circunferência de cintura (CC) e RCE. Verificou-se também a sensibilidade e especificidade para identificar e comparar o melhor ponto de corte entre os diversos indicadores de obesidade para discriminar o RCE. Foi utilizado intervalo de confiança a 95%. RESULTADOS: A maior área sob a curva ROC foi encontrada entre o índice C e RCE, em indivíduos do sexo masculino, 0,80 (0,74-0,85), diferindo significativamente dos demais indicadores de obesidade. Em mulheres, a maior área sob a curva ROC encontrada foi de 0,76 (0,71-0,81), sendo iguais entre índice C, RCCQ e RCE. CONCLUSÃO: Esses resultados demonstram que o índice C e RCCQ são os melhores indicadores de obesidade para discriminar RCE. A CC tem intermediário poder discriminatório e o IMC foi o indicador antropométrico de obesidade menos adequado para discriminar RCE. Estes dados sugerem que os indicadores de obesidade abdominal são melhores para discriminar RCE que os indicadores de obesidade generalizada.