A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

A new battery modelling method based on simulation error minimization

A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.

Mitigating the Impact of Faults in Unreliable Memories for Error-Resilient Applications

Inherently error-resilient applications in areas such as signal processing, machine learning and data analytics provide opportunities for relaxing reliability requirements, and thereby reducing the overhead incurred by conventional error correction schemes. In this paper, we exploit the tolerable imprecision of such applications by designing an energy-efficient fault-mitigation scheme for unreliable data memories to meet target yield. The proposed approach uses a bit-shuffling mechanism to isolate faults into bit locations with lower significance. This skews the bit-error distribution towards the low order bits, substantially limiting the output error magnitude. By controlling the granularity of the shuffling, the proposed technique enables trading-off quality for power, area, and timing overhead. Compared to error-correction codes, this can reduce the overhead by as much as 83% in read power, 77% in read access time, and 89% in area, when applied to various data mining applications in 28nm process technology.

Two-year changes in refractive error and related biometric factors in an adult Chinese population

Importance: This article provides, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal population-based data on refractive error (RE) in Chinese persons.

Objective: To study cohort effects and changes associated with aging in REs among Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A 2-year, longitudinal population-based cohort study was conducted in southern China. Participants, identified using cluster random sampling, included residents of Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, China, aged 35 years or older who had undergone no previous eye surgery.

Methods: Participants underwent noncycloplegic automated refraction and keratometry in December 2008 and December 2010; in a random 50% sample of the participants, anterior segment ocular coherence tomography measurement of lens thickness, as well as measurement of axial length and anterior chamber depth by partial coherence laser interferometry, were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Two-year change in spherical equivalent refraction (RE), lens thickness, axial length, and anterior chamber depth in the right eye.

Results: A total of 745 individuals underwent biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (2008 mean [SD] age, 52.2 [11.5] years; 53.7% women). Mean RE showed a 2-year hyperopic shift from −0.44 (2.21) to −0.31 (2.26) diopters (D) (difference, +0.13; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.16). A consistent 2-year hyperopic shift of 0.09 to 0.22 D was observed among participants aged 35 to 64 years when stratifying by decade, suggesting that a substantial change in RE with aging may occur during this 30-year period. Cross-sectionally, RE increased only in the cohort younger than 50 years (0.11 D/y; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.16). In the cross-sectional data, axial length decreased at −0.06 mm/y (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04), although the 2-year change in axial length was positive and thus could not explain the cross-sectional difference. These latter results suggest a cohort effect, with greater myopia developing among younger persons.

Conclusions and Relevance: This first Chinese population-based longitudinal study of RE provides evidence for both important longitudinal aging changes and cohort effects, most notably greater myopia prevalence among younger persons.

Age, gender, biometry, refractive error, and the anterior chamber angle among Alaskan Eskimos.

BACKGROUND:

The prevalence of angle-closure glaucoma (ACG) is greater for Eskimos/Inuit than it is for any other ethnic group in the world. Although it has been suggested that this prevalence may be due to a population tendency toward shallower anterior chamber angles, available evidence for other populations such as Chinese with high rates of ACG has not consistently demonstrated such a tendency.

METHODS:

A reticule, slit-lamp, and standard Goldmann one-mirror goniolens were used to make measurements in the anterior chamber (AC) angle according to a previously reported protocol for biometric gonioscopy (BG) (Ophthalmology 1999;106:2161-7). Measurements were made in all four quadrants of one eye among 133 phakic Alaskan Eskimos aged 40 years and older. Automatic refraction, dilated examination of the anterior segment and optic nerve, and A-scan measurements of AC depth, lens thickness, and axial length were also carried out for all subjects.

RESULTS:

Both central and peripheral AC measurements for the Eskimo subjects were significantly lower than those previously reported by us for Chinese, blacks, and whites under the identical protocol. Eskimos also seemed to have somewhat more hyperopia. There were no differences in biometric measurements between men and women in this Eskimo population. Angle measurements by BG seemed to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos and Chinese than blacks or whites. Although there was a significant apparent decrease in AC depth, increase in lens thickness, and increase in hyperopia with age among Eskimos, all of these trends seemed to reverse in the seventh decade and beyond.

CONCLUSIONS:

Eskimos do seem to have shallower ACs than do other racial groups. Measurements of the AC angle seem to decline more rapidly over life among Eskimos than among blacks or whites, a phenomenon also observed by us among Chinese, another group with high ACG prevalence. This apparent more rapid decline may be due to a cohort effect with higher prevalence of myopia and resulting wider angles among younger Eskimos and Chinese.

Heritability of refractive error and familial aggregation of myopia in an elderly American population.

PURPOSE: To determine the heritability of refractive error and the familial aggregation of myopia in an older population. METHODS: Seven hundred fifty-nine siblings (mean age, 73.4 years) in 241 families were recruited from the Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) Study in eastern Maryland. Refractive error was determined by noncycloplegic subjective refraction (if presenting distance visual acuity was < or =20/40) or lensometry (if best corrected visual acuity was >20/40 with spectacles). Participants were considered plano (refractive error of zero) if uncorrected visual acuity was >20/40. Preoperative refraction from medical records was used for pseudophakic subjects. Heritability of refractive error was calculated with multivariate linear regression and was estimated as twice the residual between-sibling correlation after adjusting for age, gender, and race. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) of myopia, given a myopic sibling relative to having a nonmyopic sibling. RESULTS: The estimated heritability of refractive error was 61% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 34%-88%) in this population. The age-, race-, and sex-adjusted ORs of myopia were 2.65 (95% CI: 1.67-4.19), 2.25 (95% CI: 1.31-3.87), 3.00 (95% CI: 1.56-5.79), and 2.98 (95% CI: 1.51-5.87) for myopia thresholds of -0.50, -1.00, -1.50, and -2.00 D, respectively. Neither race nor gender was significantly associated with an increased risk of myopia. CONCLUSIONS: Refractive error and myopia are highly heritable in this elderly population.

Distribution and visual impact of postoperative refractive error after cataract surgery in rural China: study of cataract outcomes and up-take of services report 4.

PURPOSE: To model the possible impact of using average-power intraocular lenses (IOLs) and evaluate the postoperative refractive error in patients having cataract surgery in rural China.SETTING: Rural Guangdong, China.METHODS: Patients having cataract surgery by local surgeons were examined and visual function was assessed 10 to 14 months after surgery. Subjective refraction at near and distance was performed bilaterally by an ophthalmologist. Patients had a target refraction of -0.50 diopter (D) based on ocular biometry.RESULTS: Of the 313 eligible patients, 242 (77%) could be contacted and 176 (74% of contacted patients, 56% overall) were examined. Examined patients had a mean age of 69.4 +/- 10.5 years. Of the 211 operated eyes, 73.2% were within +/-1.0 D of the target refraction after surgery. The best presenting distance vision was in patients within +/-1.0 D of plano and the best presenting near vision, in those with mild myopia (<-1.0 D to > or =2.0 D) (P= .005). However, patients with hyperopia (>+1.0 D) reported significantly better adjusted visual function than those with emmetropia or myopia (<-1.0 D). When the predicted use of an average-power IOL (median +21.5 D) was modeled, predicted visual acuity was significantly reduced (P= .001); however, predicted visual function was not significantly altered (P>.3).CONCLUSIONS: Accurate selection of postoperative refractive error was achieved by local surgeons in this rural area. Based on visual function results, aiming for mild postoperative myopia may not be suitable in this setting. Implanting average-power IOLs significantly reduced postoperative presenting vision, but not visual function.

Spectacle acceptance among secondary school students in rural China: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES)--report 5.

PURPOSE: To assess determinants of spectacle acceptance and use among rural Chinese children. METHODS: Children with uncorrected acuity < or = 6/12 in either eye and whose presenting vision could be improved > or = 2 lines with refraction were identified from a school-based sample of 1892 students. Information on obtaining glasses and the benefits of spectacles was provided to children, families, and teachers. Purchase of new spectacles and reasons for nonpurchase were assessed by direct inspection and interview 3 months later. RESULTS: Among 674 (35.6%) children requiring spectacles (mean age, 14.7 +/- 0.8 years), 597 (88.6%) were followed up. Among 339 children with no glasses at baseline, 30.7% purchased spectacles, whereas 43.2% of 258 children with inaccurate glasses replaced them. Most (70%) subjects paid US$13 to $26. Among children with bilateral vision < or = 6/18, 45.6% bought glasses. In multivariate models, presenting vision < 6/12 (P < 0.009), refractive error < -2.0 D (P < 0.001), and amount willing to pay for glasses (P = 0.01) were predictors of purchase. Reasons for nonpurchase included satisfaction with current vision (78% of those with glasses at baseline, 49% of those without), concerns over price or parental refusal (18%), and fear glasses would weaken the eyes (13%). Only 26% of children stated that they usually wore their new glasses. CONCLUSIONS: Many families in rural China will pay for glasses, though spectacle acceptance was < 50%, even among children with poor vision. Acceptance could be improved by price reduction, education showing that glasses will not harm the eyes, and parent-focused interventions.

Corneal hysteresis and axial length among Chinese secondary school children: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES) report no. 4.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the association between corneal hysteresis and axial length/refractive error among rural Chinese secondary school children. DESIGN: Cross-sectional cohort study. METHODS: Refractive error (cycloplegic auto-refraction with subjective refinement), central corneal thickness (CCT) and axial length (ultrasonic measurement), intraocular pressure (IOP), and corneal hysteresis (Reichert Ocular Response Analyzer) were measured on a rural school-based cohort of children. RESULTS: Among 1,233 examined children, the mean age was 14.7 +/- 0.8 years and 699 (56.7%) were girls. The mean spherical equivalent (n = 1,232) was -2.2 +/- 1.6 diopters (D), axial length (n = 643) was 23.7 +/- 1.1 mm, corneal hysteresis (n = 1,153) was 10.7 +/- 1.6 mm Hg, IOP (n = 1,153) was 17.0 +/- 3.4 mm Hg, and CCT (n = 1,226) was 553 +/- 33 microns. In linear regression models, longer axial length was significantly (P < .001 for both) associated with lower corneal hysteresis and higher IOP. Hysteresis in this population was significantly (P < .001) lower than has previously been reported for normal White children (n = 42, 12.3 +/- 1.3 mm Hg), when adjusting for age and gender. This difference did not appear to depend on differences in axial length between the populations, as it persists when only Chinese children with normal uncorrected vision are included. CONCLUSIONS: Prospective studies will be needed to determine if low hysteresis places eyes at risk for axial elongation secondary or if primary elongation results in lower hysteresis.

Visual disability, visual function, and myopia among rural chinese secondary school children: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES)--report 1.

PURPOSE: To evaluate visual acuity, visual function, and prevalence of refractive error among Chinese secondary-school children in a cross-sectional school-based study. METHODS: Uncorrected, presenting, and best corrected visual acuity, cycloplegic autorefraction with refinement, and self-reported visual function were assessed in a random, cluster sample of rural secondary school students in Xichang, China. RESULTS: Among the 1892 subjects (97.3% of the consenting children, 84.7% of the total sample), mean age was 14.7 +/- 0.8 years, 51.2% were female, and 26.4% were wearing glasses. The proportion of children with uncorrected, presenting, and corrected visual disability (< or = 6/12 in the better eye) was 41.2%, 19.3%, and 0.5%, respectively. Myopia < -0.5, < -2.0, and < -6.0 D in both eyes was present in 62.3%, 31.1%, and 1.9% of the subjects, respectively. Among the children with visual disability when tested without correction, 98.7% was due to refractive error, while only 53.8% (414/770) of these children had appropriate correction. The girls had significantly (P < 0.001) more presenting visual disability and myopia < -2.0 D than did the boys. More myopic refractive error was associated with worse self-reported visual function (ANOVA trend test, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Visual disability in this population was common, highly correctable, and frequently uncorrected. The impact of refractive error on self-reported visual function was significant. Strategies and studies to understand and remove barriers to spectacle wear are needed.

Strategies to improve the accuracy of vision measurement by teachers in rural Chinese secondary schoolchildren: Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study (X-PRES) report no. 6.

OBJECTIVE: To assess and improve the accuracy of lay screeners compared with vision professionals in detecting visual impairment in secondary schoolchildren in rural China. METHODS: After brief training, 32 teachers and a team of vision professionals independently measured vision in 1892 children in Xichang. The children also underwent vision measurement by health technicians in a concurrent government screening program. RESULTS: Of 32 teachers, 28 (87.5%) believed that teacher screening was worthwhile. Sensitivity (93.5%) and specificity (91.2%) of teachers detecting uncorrected presenting visual acuity of 20/40 or less were better than for presenting visual acuity (sensitivity, 85.2%; specificity, 84.8%). Failure of teachers to identify children owning but not wearing glasses and teacher bias toward better vision in children wearing glasses explain the worse results for initial vision. Wearing glasses was the student factor most strongly predictive of inaccurate teacher screening (P < .001). The sensitivity and specificity of the government screening program detecting low presenting visual acuity were 86.7% and 28.7%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Teacher vision screening after brief training can achieve accurate results in this setting, and there is support among teachers for screening. Screening of uncorrected rather than presenting visual acuity is recommended in settings with a high prevalence of corrected and uncorrected refractive error. Low specificity in the government program renders it ineffective.

Prevalence and determinants of spectacle nonwear among rural Chinese secondary schoolchildren: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study Report 3.

OBJECTIVE: To study spectacle wear among rural Chinese children. METHODS: Visual acuity, refraction, spectacle wear, and visual function were measured. RESULTS: Among 1892 subjects (84.7% of the sample), the mean (SD) age was 14.7 (0.8) years. Among 948 children (50.1%) potentially benefiting from spectacle wear, 368 (38.8%) did not own them. Among 580 children owning spectacles, 17.9% did not wear them at school. Among 476 children wearing spectacles, 25.0% had prescriptions that could not improve their visual acuity to better than 6/12. Therefore, 62.3% (591 of 948) of children needing spectacles did not benefit from appropriate correction. Children not owning and not wearing spectacles had better self-reported visual function but worse visual acuity at initial examination than children wearing spectacles and had a mean (SD) refractive error of -2.06 (1.15) diopter (D) and -2.78 (1.32) D, respectively. Girls (P < .001) and older children (P = .03) were more likely to be wearing their spectacles. A common reason for nonwear (17.0%) was the belief that spectacles weaken the eyes. Among children without spectacles, 79.3% said their families would pay for them (mean, US $15). CONCLUSIONS: Although half of the children could benefit from spectacle wear, 62.3% were not wearing appropriate correction. These children have significant uncorrected refractive errors. There is potential to support programs through spectacle sales.

Associations between near work, outdoor activity, and myopia among adolescent students in rural China: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 2.

OBJECTIVE:

To study the associations between near work, outdoor activity, and myopia among children attending secondary school in rural China.

METHODS:

Among a random cluster sample of 1892 children in Xichang, China, subjects with an uncorrected acuity of 6/12 or less in either eye (n = 984) and a 25% sample of children with normal vision (n = 248) underwent measurement of refractive error. Subjects were administered a questionnaire on parental education, time spent outdoors, and weekly time spent engaged in and preferred working distance for a variety of near-work activities.

RESULTS:

Among 1232 children with refraction data, 998 (81.0%) completed the near-work survey. Their mean age was 14.6 years (SD, 0.8 years), 55.6% were girls, and 83.1% had myopia of -0.5 diopters or less (more myopia) in both eyes. Time and diopter-hours spent on near activities did not differ between children with and without myopia. In regression models, time spent on near activities and time outdoors were unassociated with myopia, adjusting for age, sex, and parental education.

CONCLUSIONS:

These and other recent results raise some doubts about the association between near work and myopia. Additional efforts to identify other environmental factors associated with myopia risk and that may be amenable to intervention are warranted.

Myopia, spectacle wear, and risk of bicycle accidents among rural Chinese secondary school students: the Xichang Pediatric Refractive Error Study report no. 7.

OBJECTIVE: To study the effect of myopia and spectacle wear on bicycle-related injuries in rural Chinese students. Myopia is common among Chinese students but few studies have examined its effect on daily activities. METHODS: Data on visual acuity, refractive error, current spectacle wear, and history of bicycle use and accidents during the past 3 years were sought from 1891 students undergoing eye examinations in rural Guangdong province. RESULTS: Refractive and accident data were available for 1539 participants (81.3%), among whom the mean age was 14.6 years, 52.5% were girls, 26.8% wore glasses, and 12.9% had myopia of less than -4 diopters in both eyes. More than 90% relied on bicycles to get to school daily. A total of 2931 accidents were reported by 423 participants, with 68 requiring medical attention. Male sex (odds ratio, 1.55; P < .001) and spectacle wear (odds ratio, 1.38; P = .04) were associated with a higher risk of accident, but habitual visual acuity and myopia were unassociated with the crash risk, after adjusting for age, sex, time spent riding, and risky riding behaviors. CONCLUSION: These results may be consistent with data on motor vehicle accidents implicating peripheral vision (potentially compromised by spectacle wear) more strongly than central visual acuity in mediating crash risk.