Changing climate, changing decisions : understanding climate adaptation decision-making and the way science supports it

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências do Ambiente, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2015

Personality, emotion, and mood in agent-based group decision making

Group decision making plays an important role in organizations, especially in the present-day economy that demands high-quality, yet quick decisions. Group decision-support systems (GDSSs) are interactive computer-based environments that support concerted, coordinated team efforts toward the completion of joint tasks. The need for collaborative work in organizations has led to the development of a set of general collaborative computer-supported technologies and specific GDSSs that support distributed groups (in time and space) in various domains. However, each person is unique and has different reactions to various arguments. Many times a disagreement arises because of the way we began arguing, not because of the content itself. Nevertheless, emotion, mood, and personality factors have not yet been addressed in GDSSs, despite how strongly they influence results. Our group’s previous work considered the roles that emotion and mood play in decision making. In this article, we reformulate these factors and include personality as well. Thus, this work incorporates personality, emotion, and mood in the negotiation process of an argumentbased group decision-making process. Our main goal in this work is to improve the negotiation process through argumentation using the affective characteristics of the involved participants. Each participant agent represents a group decision member. This representation lets us simulate people with different personalities. The discussion process between group members (agents) is made through the exchange of persuasive arguments. Although our multiagent architecture model4 includes two types of agents—the facilitator and the participant— this article focuses on the emotional, personality, and argumentation components of the participant agent.

Challenges of converting nonprofit in for-profit-reasons decision making and key success factores of a conversion

Due to external constraints (opposed by the market and legal system) and internal changes nonprofit organizations have been converting to for-profit entities combining commercial revenue and social value creation. To create an understanding of the conversion process considering its challenges, the reasons, the decision-making process and key success factors of a conversion are examined. Therefore, a two-step research procedure is used combining literature research and a multiple case study approach based on expert interviews with known companies. The outcome is a helpful guideline (including a decision matrix) for social entrepreneurs that might face a conversion.

Effect of Emotion and Personality on Deviation from Purely Rational Decision-Making

Human decision-making has consistently demonstrated deviation from "pure" rationality. Emotions are a primary driver of human actions and the current study investigates how perceived emotions and personality traits may affect decision-making during the Ultimatum Game (UG). We manipulated emotions by showing images with emotional connotation while participants decided how to split money with a second player. Event-related potentials (ERPs) from scalp electrodes were recorded during the whole decision-making process. We observed significant differences in the activity of central and frontal areas when participants offered money with respect to when they accepted or rejected an offer. We found that participants were more likely to offer a higher amount of money when making their decision in association with negative emotions. Furthermore, participants were more likely to accept offers when making their decision in association with positive emotions. Honest, conscientious, and introverted participants were more likely to accept offers. Our results suggest that factors others than a rational strategy may predict economic decision-making in the UG.

Decision-making theory applied to India's explosion of a nuclear device in May, 1974

This essay reviews the decision-making process that led to India exploding a nuclear device in May, 1974. An examination of the Analytic, Cybernetic and Cognitive Theories of decision, will enable a greater understanding of the events that led up to the 1974 test. While each theory is seen to be only partially useful, it is only by synthesising the three theories that a comprehensive account of the 1974 test can be given. To achieve this analysis, literature on decision-making in national security issues is reviewed, as well as the domestic and international environment in which involved decisionmakers operated. Finally, the rationale for the test in 1974 is examined. The conclusion revealed is that the explosion of a nuclear device by India in 1974 was primarily related to improving Indian international prestige among Third World countries and uniting a rapidly disintegrating Indian societal consensus. In themselves, individual decision-making theories were found to be of little use, but a combination of the various elements allowed a greater comprehension of the events leading up to the test than might otherwise have been the case.

Factors affecting treatment decision making for women with breast cancer

This study examined the factors affecting treatment decision making for young women with early stage breast cancer. Thirty women, aged 35 to 52 years, were presented information about two equally effective chemotherapy treatments following surgery for breast cancer using an educational instrument called a "decision board." Although equally effective, the treatments differ with regards to side effects and treatment schedule. The purpose of this research was to investigate what factors affect the decision-making process. Following administration of the decision board, women were given a take-home version to review and asked to return one to two weeks later with a decision, at which time they completed a questionnaire. theoretical framework for this study was constructed from the literature on self-directed learning and critical thinking. The Overall, the factors rated most important to the treatment decision were related to quality of life, side effects, and length of treatment. Five factors were found to be rated significantly different by the women who chose one treatment versus the other in terms of importance to their decision. These were side effects in general, vomiting, hair loss, family role, and the number of trips to the cancer centre required for treatment.Implications and recommendations for patient education, research, and practice evolved from the findings of this study.

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decision makers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reduced number of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between these actors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-known multicriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow the so-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al., 1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknown variance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative priorities of the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of the median of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner (priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will be used in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution of the problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Autoconcepto académico y toma de decisiones en el alumnado de bachillerato. 'Academic self-concept and decision making of secondary school students'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación. Con el apoyo económico del departamento MIDE de la UNED. Contiene anexo de preguntas

Shared decision-making in mental health care : a user perspective on decisional needs in community-based services

BACKGROUND: Shared decision-making (SDM) is an emergent research topic in the field of mental health care and is considered to be a central component of a recovery-oriented system. Despite the evidence suggesting the benefits of this change in the power relationship between users and practitioners, the method has not been widely implemented in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate decisional and information needs among users with mental illness as a prerequisite for the development of a decision support tool aimed at supporting SDM in community-based mental health services in Sweden. METHODS: Three semi-structured focus group interviews were conducted with 22 adult users with mental illness. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis. This method was used to develop an in-depth understanding of the decisional process as well as to validate and conceptually extend Elwyn et al.'s model of SDM. RESULTS: The model Elwyn et al. have created for SDM in somatic care fits well for mental health services, both in terms of process and content. However, the results also suggest an extension of the model because decisions related to mental illness are often complex and involve a number of life domains. Issues related to social context and individual recovery point to the need for a preparation phase focused on establishing cooperation and mutual understanding as well as a clear follow-up phase that allows for feedback and adjustments to the decision-making process. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The current study contributes to a deeper understanding of decisional and information needs among users of community-based mental health services that may reduce barriers to participation in decision-making. The results also shed light on attitudinal, relationship-based, and cognitive factors that are important to consider in adapting SDM in the mental health system.

Information Visualization to support decision making in the context of distance learning: A study with VLE TelEduc

Digital data sets constitute rich sources of information, which can be extracted and evaluated applying computational tools, for example, those ones for Information Visualization. Web-based applications, such as social network environments, forums and virtual environments for Distance Learning, are good examples for such sources. The great amount of data has direct impact on processing and analysis tasks. This paper presents the computational tool Mapper, defined and implemented to use visual representations - maps, graphics and diagrams - for supporting the decision making process by analyzing data stored in Virtual Learning Environment TelEduc-Unesp. © 2012 IEEE.

Feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation

Objective: this study investigated the feelings of women regarding end-of-life decision making after ultrasound diagnosis of a lethal fetal malformation. The aim of this study was to present the decision making process of women that chose for pregnancy termination and to present selected speeches of women about their feelings. Design: open psychological interviews conducted by a psychologist immediately after the diagnosis of fetal malformation by ultrasound. Analysis of the results was performed through a content analysis technique. Setting: the study was carried out at a public university hospital in Brazil. Participants: 249 pregnant women who had received the diagnosis of a severe lethal fetal malformation. Findings: fetal anencephaly was the most frequent anomaly detected in 135 cases (54.3%). Termination of pregnancy was decided by 172 (69.1%) patients and legally authorised by the judiciary (66%). The reason for asking for termination was to reduce suffering in all of them. In the 77 women who chose not to terminate pregnancy (30.9%), the reasons were related to feelings of guilt (74%). Key conclusions: the results support the importance of psychological counselling for couples when lethal fetal malformation is diagnosed. The act of reviewing moral and cultural values and elements of the unconscious provides assurance in the decision-making process and mitigates the risk of emotional trauma and guilt that can continue long after the pregnancy is terminated. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity and local democracy. The case of Republic of Macedonia - implications of ethnic diversity on municipal decision making and organizational performance

This research seeks to review the level of knowledge achieved in interpreting the relationship between the ethnic diversity at the workplace in the public sector and the organizational performance; as well as seeks to contribute in understanding the implications of this relationship. The study commenced with investigating the academic research in the relevant area addressing the following research questions: (a) How are diversity management and organizational performance conceptualized? (b) What are the existing findings of research concerning diversity at the workplace in the public organizations and organizational performance? (c) What factors intervene the relationship between the diversity and organizational performance? Based on the findings from the review of the academic research, this study seeks to contribute in understanding the ethnic diversity – performance relationship and its mplications at the local level in the Macedonian context. The reform process in Macedonia as a multicultural society, where for many years, inter-ethnic relations have been one of the most sensitive political issues, affecting both the stability of the country and the progress, focused mainly on the implementation of the decentralization and inclusion of ethnic minorities in the decision making process. With the implementation of the Ohrid Framework Agreement workforce at the units of local self-government in Republic of Macedonia is becoming more balanced with respect to ethnic minorities, with more workforce participation than ever by Albanians, Turks, Roma and other minorities. As public organizations at local level become more diverse along ethnic lines, it makes sense to pay more attention to how different ethnic groups interact with one another at work. Thus it gives additional importance on the research question addressed in the study and gives significance of the research in a broader scope.

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Retrofit Options to Support Decision Making

How to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of repair/retrofit intervention vs. demolition/replacement and what level of shaking intensity can the chosen repairing/retrofit technique sustain are open questions affecting either the pre-earthquake prevention, the post-earthquake emergency and the reconstruction phases. The (mis)conception that the cost of retrofit interventions would increase linearly with the achieved seismic performance (%NBS) often discourages stakeholders to consider repair/retrofit options in a post-earthquake damage situation. Similarly, in a pre-earthquake phase, the minimum (by-law) level of %NBS might be targeted, leading in some cases to no-action. Furthermore, the performance measure enforcing owners to take action, the %NBS, is generally evaluated deterministically. Not directly reflecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainties, the assessment can result in misleading confidence on the expected performance. The present study aims at contributing to the delicate decision-making process of repair/retrofit vs. demolition/replacement, by developing a framework to assist stakeholders with the evaluation of the effects in terms of long-term losses and benefits of an increment in their initial investment (targeted retrofit level) and highlighting the uncertainties hidden behind a deterministic approach. For a pre-1970 case study building, different retrofit solutions are considered, targeting different levels of %NBS, and the actual probability of reaching Collapse when considering a suite of ground-motions is evaluated, providing a correlation between %NBS and Risk. Both a simplified and a probabilistic loss modelling are then undertaken to study the relationship between %NBS and expected direct and indirect losses.

Meeting the decision-making preferences of patients with breast cancer in oncology consultations: impact on decision-related outcomes

To investigate how involvement preferences of patients with breast cancer change during the treatment decision-making process and determine the impact of meeting patients' expectations on decision-making outcomes.

The Bernese Hypothermia Algorithm: a consensus paper on in-hospital decision-making and treatment of patients in hypothermic cardiac arrest at an alpine level 1 trauma centre

INTRODUCTION: Guidelines for the treatment of patients in severe hypothermia and mainly in hypothermic cardiac arrest recommend the rewarming using the extracorporeal circulation (ECC). However,guidelines for the further in-hospital diagnostic and therapeutic approach of these patients, who often suffer from additional injuries—especially in avalanche casualties, are lacking. Lack of such algorithms may relevantly delay treatment and put patients at further risk. Together with a multidisciplinary team, the Emergency Department at the University Hospital in Bern, a level I trauma centre, created an algorithm for the in-hospital treatment of patients with hypothermic cardiac arrest. This algorithm primarily focuses on the decision-making process for the administration of ECC. THE BERNESE HYPOTHERMIA ALGORITHM: The major difference between the traditional approach, where all hypothermic patients are primarily admitted to the emergency centre, and our new algorithm is that hypothermic cardiac arrest patients without obvious signs of severe trauma are taken to the operating theatre without delay. Subsequently, the interdisciplinary team decides whether to rewarm the patient using ECC based on a standard clinical trauma assessment, serum potassium levels, core body temperature, sonographic examinations of the abdomen, pleural space, and pericardium, as well as a pelvic X-ray, if needed. During ECC, sonography is repeated and haemodynamic function as well as haemoglobin levels are regularly monitored. Standard radiological investigations according to the local multiple trauma protocol are performed only after ECC. Transfer to the intensive care unit, where mild therapeutic hypothermia is maintained for another 12 h, should not be delayed by additional X-rays for minor injuries. DISCUSSION: The presented algorithm is intended to facilitate in-hospital decision-making and shorten the door-to-reperfusion time for patients with hypothermic cardiac arrest. It was the result of intensive collaboration between different specialties and highlights the importance of high-quality teamwork for rare cases of severe accidental hypothermia. Information derived from the new International Hypothermia Registry will help to answer open questions and further optimize the algorithm.