Selecting volatility forecasting models for portfolio allocation purposes

Techniques for evaluating and selecting multivariate volatility forecasts are not yet understood as well as their univariate counterparts. This paper considers the ability of different loss functions to discriminate between a set of competing forecasting models which are subsequently applied in a portfolio allocation context. It is found that a likelihood-based loss function outperforms its competitors, including those based on the given portfolio application. This result indicates that considering the particular application of forecasts is not necessarily the most effective basis on which to select models.

Antispin thrust allocation for marine vessels

In extreme weather conditions, thrusters on ships and rigs may be subject to severe thrust losses caused by ventilation and in-and-out-of-water events. When a thruster ventilates, air is sucked down from the surface and into the propeller. In more severe cases, parts of or even the whole propeller can be out of the water. These losses vary rapidly with time and cause increased wear and tear in addition to reduced thruster performance. In this paper, a thrust allocation strategy is proposed to reduce the effects of thrust losses and to reduce the possibility of multiple ventilation events. This thrust allocation strategy is named antispin thrust allocation, based on the analogous behavior of antispin wheel control of cars. The proposed thrust allocation strategy is important for improving the life span of the propulsion system and the accuracy of positioning for vessels conducting station keeping in terms of dynamic positioning or thruster-assisted position mooring. Application of this strategy can result in an increase of operational time and, thus, increased profitability. The performance of the proposed allocation strategy is demonstrated with experiments on a model ship.

A low-complexity flight controller for Unmanned Aircraft Systems with constrained control allocation

In this paper, we propose a framework for joint allocation and constrained control design of flight controllers for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS). The actuator configuration is used to map actuator constraint set into the space of the aircraft generalised forces. By constraining the demanded generalised forces, we ensure that the allocation problem is always feasible; and therefore, it can be solved without constraints. This leads to an allocation problem that does not require on-line numerical optimisation. Furthermore, since the controller handles the constraints, and there is no need to implement heuristics to inform the controller about actuator saturation. The latter is fundamental for avoiding Pilot Induced Oscillations (PIO) in remotely operated UAS due to the rate limit on the aircraft control surfaces.

Joint motion control and control allocation design for UAS flight control systems

As Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) grow in complexity, and their level of autonomy increases|moving away from the concept of a remotely piloted systems and more towards autonomous systems|there is a need to further improve reliability and tolerance to faults. The traditional way to accommodate actuator faults is by using standard control allocation techniques as part of the flight control system. The allocation problem in the presence of faults often requires adding constraints that quantify the maximum capacity of the actuators. This in turn requires on-line numerical optimisation. In this paper, we propose a framework for joint allocation and constrained control scheme via vector input scaling. The actuator configuration is used to map actuator constraints into the space of the aircraft generalised forces, which are the magnitudes demanded by the light controller. Then by constraining the output of controller, we ensure that the allocation function always receive feasible demands. With the proposed framework, the allocation problem does not require numerical optimisation, and since the controller handles the constraints, there is not need to implement heuristics to inform the controller about actuator saturation.

Control design for positioning of underwater vehicles with control allocation

In this paper, we address the control design problem of positioning of over-actuated underwater vehicles. The proposed design is based on a control architecture with combined position and velocity loops and a control tuning method based on the decoupled models. We derive analytical tuning rules based on requirements of closed-loop stability, positioning performance, and the vehicle velocity dynamic characteristics. The vehicle modelling is considered from force to motion with appropriate simplifications related to low-speed manoeuvring hydrodynamics and vehicle symmetry. The control design is considered together with a control allocation mapping. This approach makes the control tuning independent of the characteristics of the force actuators and provides the basis for control reconfiguration in the presence of actuator failure. We propose an anti-wind-up implementation of the controller, which ensures that the constraints related to actuation capacity are not violated. This approach simplifies the control allocation problem since the actuator constraints are mapped into generalised force constraints.

Anti-wind-up designs for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles with control allocation

This paper presents a framework for the design of a joint motion controller and a control allocation strategy for dynamic positioning of marine vehicles. The key aspects of the proposed designs are a systematic approach to deal with actuator saturation and to inform the motion controller about saturation. The proposed system uses a mapping that translates the actuator constraint sets into constraint sets at the motion controller level. Hence, while the motion controller addresses the constraints, the control allocation algorithm can solve an unconstrained optimisation problem. The constrained control design is approached using a multivariable anti-wind-up strategy for strictly proper controllers. This is applicable to the implementation of PI and PID type of motion controllers.

A non-profit design-led innovation journey

Non-profit organisations in the aged care sector are currently under pressure from more than just a sheer increase of customers. A need to respond to changing legislative requirements, increased expectations from customers and increasing likelihood of shortage in appropriate experienced staff are also contributing to instability within the sector. This paper will present a longitudinal action research study of a non-profit organisation revisiting its core purpose of providing relevant services and attempting to build a customer-centric method for addressing the current and upcoming change drivers in an Australian aged care context. The study found Design- Led Innovation to be an effective methodology for capturing deep customer insights and conceptualising new business models which address the prevalent change drivers. This paper details a design-led approach to innovation, tailored to a non-profit organisation seeking to better understand its stakeholders and redefine its value offering.

The Not for Profit Sector in Australia : Fact Sheet

This fact sheet outlines aspects of the nonprofit sector in Australia, under the following headings: size; economic contribution; employment; volunteering; income; expenses; and philanthropy; and provides international comparisons on aspects including size, growth, economic contribution, giving, and workforce.

Interactive content analysis : evaluating interactive variants of non-negative Matrix Factorisation and Latent Dirichlet Allocation as qualitative content analysis aids

This thesis addressed issues that have prevented qualitative researchers from using thematic discovery algorithms. The central hypothesis evaluated whether allowing qualitative researchers to interact with thematic discovery algorithms and incorporate domain knowledge improved their ability to address research questions and trust the derived themes. Non-negative Matrix Factorisation and Latent Dirichlet Allocation find latent themes within document collections but these algorithms are rarely used, because qualitative researchers do not trust and cannot interact with the themes that are automatically generated. The research determined the types of interactivity that qualitative researchers require and then evaluated interactive algorithms that matched these requirements. Theoretical contributions included the articulation of design guidelines for interactive thematic discovery algorithms, the development of an Evaluation Model and a Conceptual Framework for Interactive Content Analysis.

An analysis of the timeliness and nature of profit warnings in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) has severely impacted the financial position and performance of many companies internationally. Because of its severity and associated increase in uncertainty it challenges the effectiveness of existing disclosure regulation. Australia provides a unique environment in which to test the effects of the GFC on corporate disclosure because statutory rules mandate the timely disclosure of ‘price-sensitive’ information (ASX Rule 3.1) by listed entities. Exploiting this institutional setting we investigate the determinants and timeliness of profit warnings issued by the top 500 ASX-listed firms with profit declines in the 2009 fiscal year. Our findings show that firms behave differently with regard to the issuance of profit warnings: larger and more indebted firms are more likely to issue a profit warning and tend to be timelier; surprisingly, poorer performing firms tend to release the news more quickly and this might be attributed to an increasing threat of litigation. Our analysis of profit warning determinants shows interesting results with the presence of asset impairments hindering the early disclosure of profit warnings. Our findings are novel for two main reasons: first, we provide insights into the impact of global financial crisis on profit warning behaviour; second, we are the first to examine the differential impact of alternative features of profit warnings on disclosure timeliness. The findings have implications for regulators in determining compliance with continuous disclosure rules and more broadly, for market participants in interpreting profit warnings.

Thrust allocation with linear constrained quadratic cost function

In this paper, a method of thrust allocation based on a linearly constrained quadratic cost function capable of handling rotating azimuths is presented. The problem formulation accounts for magnitude and rate constraints on both thruster forces and azimuth angles. The advantage of this formulation is that the solution can be found with a finite number of iterations for each time step. Experiments with a model ship are used to validate the thrust allocation system.

Financial Reserves : A Necessary Condition for Not-for-Profit Sustainability?

Should not-for-profit (NFP) organisations hold reserves to hedge uncertainty and protect mission delivery? This chapter outlines the nature and contxt of NFP reserves. many would accept that actors within NFP organisations have a broad accountability to ensure sustinability where an appropriate mission exists, and that sustinability is assisted or ensured through the purposeful accumulation of reserves. This chapter examins current relevant literature on reserves, reviews various approaches to reserves accumulation across jurisdictions and reports what is known about practice. We highlight the tension faced by NFP organisations, balancing mission spending against the need to hedge uncertainty. We investigate the role of reserves, and how an appropriate level is determined to ensure a NFP board's accountability for organisational sustinability. This issue is particularly significant in the period following the global financial crisis, and while practitioner interest is evident, there has been little academic attention paid to the topic of NFP reserves, and 'very few [articles] have even forcused on related topics' (Calabrese, 2011, p. 282).

Constraints and characteristics of flexible work arrangements in small not-for-profit firms

There is a great deal of research that examines flexible working arrangements, but this work tends to be concentrated in large organisations. This research examines the approach taken to flexible working arrangements in five small community based, not for profit organisations. We present three propositions that aim to understand the constraints and the characteristics of flexible work in this rarely studied sector.

Standardising and assessing digital images for use in clinical trials : a practical, reproducible method that blinds the assessor to treatment allocation

With the increasing availability of high quality digital cameras that are easily operated by the non-professional photographer, the utility of using digital images to assess endpoints in clinical research of skin lesions has growing acceptance. However, rigorous protocols and description of experiences for digital image collection and assessment are not readily available, particularly for research conducted in remote settings. We describe the development and evaluation of a protocol for digital image collection by the non-professional photographer in a remote setting research trial, together with a novel methodology for assessment of clinical outcomes by an expert panel blinded to treatment allocation.