Sovereign rescheduling probabilities in emerging markets: a comparison with credit rating agencies' ratings

This study estimates default probabilities of 124 emerging countries from 1981 to 2002 as a function of a set of macroeconomic and political variables. The estimated probabilities are then compared with the default rates implied by sovereign credit ratings of three major international credit rating agencies (CRAs) – Moody's Investor's Service, Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings. Sovereign debt default probabilities are used by investors in pricing sovereign bonds and loans as well as in determining country risk exposure. The study finds that CRAs usually underestimate the risk of sovereign debt as the sovereign credit ratings from rating agencies are usually too optimistic.

The structure of the Statistics Anxiety Rating Scale: A confirmatory factor analysis using UK psychology students

This study aimed to examine the structure of the statistics anxiety rating scale. Responses from 650 undergraduate psychology students throughout the UK were collected through an on-line study. Based on previous research three different models were specified and estimated using confirmatory factor analysis. Fit indices were used to determine if the model fitted the data and a likelihood ratio difference test was used to determine the best fitting model. The original six factor model was the best explanation of the data. All six subscales were intercorrelated and internally consistent. It was concluded that the statistics anxiety rating scale was found to measure the six subscales it was designed to assess in a UK population.

Peer Rating for Feedback in Group Projects

The National Student Survey (NSS) in the UK has since 2005 questioned final year
undergraduate students on a broad range of issues relating to their university experience.
Across disciplines and universities students have expressed least satisfaction in the areas of
assessment and feedback. In response to these results many educational practitioners have
reviewed and revised their procedures and the UK Higher Education Academy (HEA) has
produced guidelines of best practice to assist academics in improving these specific areas.
The Product Design and Development (PDD) degree at Queen’s University Belfast is
structured with an integrated curriculum with group Design Build Test (DBT) projects as the
core of each year of the undergraduate programme. Based on the CDIO syllabus and
standards the overall learning outcomes for the programme are defined and developed in a
staged manner, guided by Bloom’s taxonomy of learning domains.
Feedback in group DBT projects, especially in relation to the development of personal and
professional skills, represents a different challenge to that of individual assignment feedback.
A review of best practice was carried out to establish techniques which could be applied to
the particular context of the PDD degree without modification and also to identify areas
where a different approach would need to be applied.
A revised procedure was then developed which utilised the structure of the PDD degree to
provide a mechanism for enhanced feedback in group project work, while at the same time
increasing student development of self and peer evaluation skills. Key to this improvement
was the separation of peer ratings from assessment in the perception of the students and the
introduction of more frequent face to face feedback interviews.
This paper details the new procedures developed and additional issues which have been
raised and addressed, with reference to the published literature, during 3 years of operation.

Communicating musical knowledge through gesture: Piano teachers’ gestural behaviours across different levels of student proficiency

Teachers’ communication of musical knowledge through physical gesture represents a valuable pedagogical field in need of investigation. This exploratory case study compares the gestural behaviour of three piano teachers while giving individual lessons to students who differed according to piano proficiency levels. The data was collected by video recordings of one-to-one piano lessons and gestures were categorized using two gesture classifications: the spontaneous co-verbal gesture classification (McNeill, 1992; 2005) and spontaneous co-musical gesture classification (Simones, Schroeder & Rodger, 2013). Poisson regression analysis and qualitative observation suggest a relationship between teachers’ didactic intentions and the types of gesture they produced while teaching, as shown by differences in gestural category frequency between teaching students of higher and lower levels of proficiency. Such reported agreement between teachers’ gestural approach in relation to student proficiency levels indicates a teachers’ gestural scaffolding approach whereby teachers adapted gestural communicative channels to suit students’ specific conceptual skill levels.

Experimentally validated partial least squares model for dynamic line rating

This study presents a model based on partial least squares (PLS) regression for dynamic line rating (DLR). The model has been verified using data from field measurements, lab tests and outdoor experiments. Outdoor experimentation has been conducted both to verify the model predicted DLR and also to provide training data not available from field measurements, mainly heavily loaded conditions. The proposed model, unlike the direct measurement based DLR techniques, enables prediction of line rating for periods ahead of time whenever a reliable weather forecast is available. The PLS approach yields a very simple statistical model that accurately captures the physical performance of the conductor within a given environment without requiring a predetermination of parameters as required by many physical modelling techniques. Accuracy of the PLS model has been tested by predicting the conductor temperature for measurement sets other than those used for training. Being a linear model, it is straightforward to estimate the conductor ampacity for a set of predicted weather parameters. The PLS estimated ampacity has proven its accuracy through an outdoor experiment on a piece of the line conductor in real weather conditions.