977 resultados para Prior distribution


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In order to predict the current state and future development of Earth s climate, detailed information on atmospheric aerosols and aerosol-cloud-interactions is required. Furthermore, these interactions need to be expressed in such a way that they can be represented in large-scale climate models. The largest uncertainties in the estimate of radiative forcing on the present day climate are related to the direct and indirect effects of aerosol. In this work aerosol properties were studied at Pallas and Utö in Finland, and at Mount Waliguan in Western China. Approximately two years of data from each site were analyzed. In addition to this, data from two intensive measurement campaigns at Pallas were used. The measurements at Mount Waliguan were the first long term aerosol particle number concentration and size distribution measurements conducted in this region. They revealed that the number concentration of aerosol particles at Mount Waliguan were much higher than those measured at similar altitudes in other parts of the world. The particles were concentrated in the Aitken size range indicating that they were produced within a couple of days prior to reaching the site, rather than being transported over thousands of kilometers. Aerosol partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was studied at Pallas during the two measurement campaigns, First Pallas Cloud Experiment (First PaCE) and Second Pallas Cloud Experiment (Second PaCE). The method of using two differential mobility particle sizers (DMPS) to calculate the number concentration of activated particles was found to agree well with direct measurements of cloud droplet. Several parameters important in cloud droplet activation were found to depend strongly on the air mass history. The effects of these parameters partially cancelled out each other. Aerosol number-to-volume concentration ratio was studied at all three sites using data sets with long time-series. The ratio was found to vary more than in earlier studies, but less than either aerosol particle number concentration or volume concentration alone. Both air mass dependency and seasonal pattern were found at Pallas and Utö, but only seasonal pattern at Mount Waliguan. The number-to-volume concentration ratio was found to follow the seasonal temperature pattern well at all three sites. A new parameterization for partitioning between cloud droplets and cloud interstitial particles was developed. The parameterization uses aerosol particle number-to-volume concentration ratio and aerosol particle volume concentration as the only information on the aerosol number and size distribution. The new parameterization is computationally more efficient than the more detailed parameterizations currently in use, but the accuracy of the new parameterization was slightly lower. The new parameterization was also compared to directly observed cloud droplet number concentration data, and a good agreement was found.

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Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

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An extreme dry-down and muck-removal project was conducted at Lake Tohopekaliga, Florida, in 2003-2004, to remove dense vegetation from inshore areas and improve habitat degraded by stabilized water levels. Vegetation was monitored from June 2002 to December 2003, to describe the pre-existing communities in terms of composition and distribution along the environmental gradients. Three study areas (Treatment-Selection Sites) were designed to test the efficacy of different treatments in enhancing inshore habitat, and five other study areas (Whole-Lake Monitoring Sites) were designed to monitor the responses of the emergent littoral vegetation as a whole. Five general community types were identified within the study areas by recording aboveground biomasses and stem densities of each species. These communities were distributed along water and soils gradients, with water depth and bulk density explaining most of the variation. The shallowest depths were dominated by a combination of Eleocharis spp., Luziola fluitans, and Panicum repens; while the deeper areas had communities of Nymphaea odorata and Nuphar luteum; Typha spp.; or Paspalidium geminatum and Hydrilla verticillata. Mineralized soils were common in both the shallow and deep-water communities, while the intermediate depths had high percentages of organic material in the soil. These intermediate depths (occurring just above and just below low pool stage) were dominated by Pontederia cordata, the main species targeted by the habitat enhancement project. This emergent community occurred in nearly monocultural bands around the lake (from roughly 60–120 cm in depth at high pool stage) often having more diverse floating mats along the deep-water edge. The organic barrier these mats create is believed to impede access of sport fish to shallow-water spawning areas, while the overall low diversity of the community is evidence of its competitive nature in stabilized waters. With continued monitoring of these study areas long-term effects of the restoration project can be assessed and predictive models may be created to determine the efficacy and legitimacy of such projects in the future.

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Blowflies are insects of forensic interest as they may indicate characteristics of the environment where a body has been laying prior to the discovery. In order to estimate changes in community related to landscape and to assess if blowfly species can be used as indicators of the landscape where a corpse has been decaying, we studied the blowfly community and how it is affected by landscape in a 7,000 km(2) region during a whole year. Using baited traps deployed monthly we collected 28,507 individuals of 10 calliphorid species, 7 of them well represented and distributed in the study area. Multiple Analysis of Variance found changes in abundance between seasons in the 7 analyzed species, and changes related to land use in 4 of them (Calliphora vomitoria, Lucilia ampullacea, L. caesar and L. illustris). Generalised Linear Model analyses of abundance of these species compared with landscape descriptors at different scales found only a clear significant relationship between summer abundance of C. vomitoria and distance to urban areas and degree of urbanisation. This relationship explained more deviance when considering the landscape composition at larger geographical scales (up to 2,500 m around sampling site). For the other species, no clear relationship between land uses and abundance was found, and therefore observed changes in their abundance patterns could be the result of other variables, probably small changes in temperature. Our results suggest that blowfly community composition cannot be used to infer in what kind of landscape a corpse has decayed, at least in highly fragmented habitats, the only exception being the summer abundance of C. vomitoria.

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Aerial surveys of belugas, Delphinapterus leucas, in Cook Inlet wre flown each year during June and/or July from 1993 to 2000. This project was designed to delineate distribution and collect aerial counts, elements critical to the managment of this small, isolated stock that was subjected to a persistent harvest by Native hunters. The surveys provided a thorough, annual coverage of the coastal areas of the inlet (1,300 km of shoreline) and included roughly 1,000 km of offshore transects annually. Coastal transects were flown 1.4 km from the waterline, thus surveying most of the area within 3 km of shore. These, along with offshore transects, provided annual systematic searches of 13-33% of the entire inlet. The largest concentration of belugas (151-288 whales by aerial count) was in the northern portion of upper Cook Inlet in the Susitna River Delta and/or in Knik Arm. Another concentration (17-49 whales) was consistently found between Chickaloon River and Point Possession. Smaller groups (generally <20 whales) were occasionally found in Turn-again Arm, Kachemak Bay, Redoubt Bay (Big River), and Trading Bay (McArthur River) prior to 1995 but not thereafter. Over the past three decades, summer distribution has shrunk such that sightings now only rarely occur in lower Cook Inlet and in offshore areas. In the 1990's, most (96-100%) of the sightings were concentrated in a few dense groups in shallow areas near river mouths in upper Cook Inlet.

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Between March 2000 and April 2001 two commercial fishing vessels fished for toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) off South Georgia using pots. A significant number of lithodid crabs (three species of Paralomis spp.) were caught as bycatch. Paralomis spinosissima occurred in shallow water, generally shallower than 700 m. Paralomis anamerae, not previously reported from this area and therefore representing a considerable southerly extension in the reported geographic range of this species, had an intermediate depth distribution from 400 to 800 m. Paralomis formosa was present in shallow waters but reached much higher catch levels (and, presumably, densities) between 800 and 1400 m. Differences were also noted in depth distribution of the sexes and size of crabs. Depth, soak time, and area were found to significantly influence crab catch rates. Few crabs (3% of P. spinosissima and 7% of P. formosa) were males above the legal size limit and could therefore be retained. All other crabs were discarded. Most crabs (>99% of P. formosa, >97% of P. spinosissima, and >90% of P. anamerae) were lively on arrival on deck and at subsequent discard. Mortality rates estimated from re-immersion experiments indicated that on the vessel where pots were emptied directly onto the factory conveyor belt 78–89% of crabs would survive discarding, whereas on the vessel where crabs were emptied down a vertical chute prior to being sorted, survivorship was 38–58%. Of the three, P. anamerae was the most vulnerable to handling onboard and sub-sequent discarding. Paralomis spinosissima seemed more vulnerable than P. formosa.

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Prior to introduction of non-native fish species into Lakes Victor i a, Kyoga and Nabugabo, the three lakes suppor ted diverse fish fauna representing 13 families consisting of six cichlid genera and fifteen non-cichlid genera. There were about 50 non-cichlid species and over 300 cichlids consisting of mainly haplochromines (Graham 1929, worthington 1929, Greenwood 1960). Many of the species were commercially and scientifically important and provided a rich variety of protein source to choose from. Following introduction of the Nile perch and several tilapiines species, most of the native species were drastically reduced and some have apparently disappeared. The few remaining species appear to be restricted in distribution due to the presence of the Nile perch. They are mainly confined to refugia such as marginal macrophytes, rocky outcrops and small satellite lakes which are separated from the areas of introduction by swamps

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Haplochrmine cichlids were the most abundant taxa in Lakes Victoria, Kyoga and Nabugabo prior to introduction of the Nile perch. As stocks of the introduced predator increased, these taxa were depleted to such an extent that they are now virtually absent from the lake. The haplochromine cichlids played an important role in the ecology of Lakes Victoria, Kyoga and Nabugabo. They occupied virtually all trophic levels in the lake and facilitated an efficient flow of energy through the ecosystem. Their depletion seem to have left much organic matter whose decomposition has contributed to accumulation of dead organic matter which may be contributing to prolonged anoxia in Lake Victoria. The haplochromines formed an important small-scale fishery. Fishermen formerly subsisting on this fishery have been driven out of business because they cannot afford the expensive nets required for Nile perch fishery. In addition to providing a cheap source of fish protein to humans, the species were an important source of Scientific material for students of genetics antd adaptive radiation.

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After damming of the Yangtze River, in order to explore the impacts of the Three-Gorge Dam (TGD) on the aquatic ecosystem, phytoplankton composition, abundance and biomass spatial distribution were studied in the Three-Gorge Reservoir (TGR), and the closest upstream anabranch Xiangxi River, which is 38 kin away from the Three-Gorge Dam (TGD) during August (rainy season) 2004 and April (dry season) 2005. In surveys, 6 transects (2 downstream and 4 cross-stream) and 25 stations have been investigated and 314 samples were collected from the surface to the river bed with water samplers. In TGR, 63 taxa and 60 taxa were identified in the rainy and dry seasons, respectively. In the Xiangxi River, 39 taxa were observed in the rainy and dry seasons. Algal blooms occurred in the Xiangxi River and at the influx region of the Yangtze and Xiangxi in both seasons, but had not occurred prior to damming. In the rainy season, the dominant species was Chroomonas acuta with 1.84 x 10(7) cells l(-1), and in the dry season the dominant species were Asterionella formosa and Cryptomonas ovata with 1.34 x 10(7) cells l(-1) and 1.79 x 10(6) cells(.)l(-1), respectively. In the main channel of TGR, there were no significant correlations between phytoplankton abundance and the concentrations of the main soluble nutrients. In the Xiangxi River, significant negative correlations were observed between phytoplankton abundance and nitrate (Spearman, p < 0.01, n=21), phosphate (Spearman, p < 0.05, n=21) and silicate (Spearman, p < 0.01, n=21) in the rainy season, and similar correlations were also observed with nitrate (Spearman, p < 0.05, n=28) and silicate (Speannan, p < 0.01, n=28), but not with phosphate in the dry season. Since the damming of the Yangtze River, eutrophication in the anabranch within the backwater has occurred and become severe, and the frequency of algal bloom within TGR and anabranches is expected to increase. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Sources and distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in the Ya-Er Lake area (Hubei, China) sediment cores of 3 ponds in the shallow Ya-Er Lake were investigated for 16 PAH. Analytical procedure included extraction by ultrasonication, clean-up by gel-permeation and quantification by HPLC with fluorescence detection. The total PAH amount in sediment samples of the Ya-Er Lake ranged from 68 to 2242 mu g/kg. Concentrations decreased from pond 1 to pond 3 and from upper to lower sediment layers. In addition a soil sample from Ya-Er Lake area showed a total PAH amount of 58 mu g/kg. The PAH pattern in lower sediment layers were similar to that of the soil sample which indicates an atmospheric deposition into the sediments prior to 1970 only. The PAH profile of upper sediment samples, which differs completely from that of lower layers, may be explained by a gradually increasing input of mixed combustion and raw fuel sources since 1970. Therefore the origin of increased PAH contamination in Ya-Er Lake during the last 3 decades has been probably an industrial waste effluent in pond 1.

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Intensive sampling at the coastal waters of the central Red Sea during a period of thermal stratification, prior to the main seasonal bloom during winter, showed that vertical patches of prokaryotes and microplankton developed and persisted for several days within the apparently density uniform upper layer. These vertical structures were most likely the result of in situ growth and mortality (e.g., grazing) rather than physical or behavioural aggregation. Simulating a mixing event by adding nutrient-rich deep water abruptly triggered dense phytoplankton blooms in the nutrient-poor environment of the upper layer. These findings suggest that vertical structures within the mixed layer provide critical seeding stocks that can rapidly exploit nutrient influx during mixing, leading to winter bloom formation.

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Much of the evidence suggesting that inequalities in health have been increasing over the last two decades has come from studies that compared the changes in relative health status of areas over time. Such studies ignore the movement of people between areas. This paper examines the population movement between small areas in Northern Ireland in the year prior to the 1991 census as well as the geographical distribution of migrants to Northern Ireland over the same period. It shows that deprived areas tended to become depopulated and that those who left these areas were the more affluent residents. While immigrants differed a little from the indigenous population, the overall effect of their distribution would be to maintain the geographical socio-economic status quo. The selective movement of people between areas would result in the distribution of health and ill-health becoming more polarized, i.e. produce a picture of widening inequalities between areas even though the distribution between individuals is unchanged. These processes suggest potential significant problems with the area-based approaches to monitoring health and inequalities in health.

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We present a database of late-Quaternary plant macrofossil records for northern Eurasia (from 23 degrees to 180 degrees E and 46 degrees to 76 degrees N) comprising 281 localities, over 2300 samples and over 13,000 individual records. Samples are individually radiocarbon dated or are assigned ages via age models fitted to sequences of calibrated radiocarbon dates within a section. Tree species characteristic of modern northern forests (e.g. Picea, Larix, tree-Betula) are recorded at least intermittently from prior to the last glacial maximum (LGM), through the LGM and Lateglacial, to the Holocene, and some records locate trees close to the limits of the Scandinavian ice sheet, supporting the hypothesis that some taxa persisted in northern refugia during the last glacial cycle. Northern trees show differing spatio-temporal patterns across Siberia: deciduous trees were widespread in the Lateglacial, with individuals occurring across much of their contemporary ranges, while evergreen conifers expanded northwards to their range limits in the Holocene. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.

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A cryptotephra layer from the eruption of Hekla in 1947 has recently been discovered in Irish peatlands. This tephra layer represents the most recent deposition of volcanic ash in the UK prior to the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010. Here we examine the concentration and geochemistry of the Hekla 1947 tephra in 14 peat profiles from across Northern Ireland. Electron probe microanalysis of individual tephra shards (n?=?91) reveals that the tephra is of dacitic–andesitic geochemistry and is highly similar to the Hekla 1510 tephra, although spheroidal carbonaceous particle profiles can be used for successful discrimination of the two layers. The highest concentrations of Hekla 1947 are found in western sites, probably reflecting the pathway of the ash fall event due to the prevailing wind direction. Comparable tephra concentrations from two cores (1?km apart) from a single bog and from nearby sites may suggest that tephra shard concentrations in peat profiles reflect ash fallout densities across a specific region, rather than site-specific factors associated with peatlands. This paper firmly establishes Hekla 1947 as a useful chronostratigraphic marker for the twentieth century, although within a restricted zone.