The effect of project information on the accuracy of building price forecasts

A fundamental proposition is that the accuracy of the designer's tender price forecasts is positively correlated with the amount of information available for that project. The paper describes an empirical study of the effects of the quantity of information available on practicing Quantity Surveyors' forecasting accuracy. The methodology involved the surveyors repeatedly revising tender price forecasts on receipt of chunks of project information. Each of twelve surveyors undertook two projects and selected information chunks from a total of sixteen information types. The analysis indicated marked differences in accuracy between different project types and experts/non-experts. The expert surveyors' forecasts were not found to be significantly improved by information other than that of basic building type and size, even after eliminating project type effects. The expert surveyors' forecasts based on the knowledge of building type and size alone were, however, found to be of similar accuracy to that of average practitioners pricing full bills of quantities.

Heuristics and building price forecasting

The construction industry contains two types of estimators the contractors' estimator and the designers' price forecaster. Each has two models of the building in which to systemize his procedures - the production model and the design model. The use of these models is discussed in the light of the industry's particular problems of complexity and uncertainty together with the pressures of the market. It is argued that estimators and forecasters, in order to function effectively in these conditions, are forced to exercise a high degree of subjective judgment. Means of eliciting good heuristics involved in judgment making are considered by reference to the artificial intelligence and construction literature and a methodology is proposed based on these findings. The results of two early trials of the method with students are given, indicating the usefulness of the approach.

What drives the commodity price beta of oil industry stocks

We test theoretical drivers of the oil price beta of oil industry stocks. The strongest statistical and economic support comes for market conditions-type variables as the prime drivers: namely, oil price (+), bond rate (+), volatility of oil returns (−) and cost of carry (+). Though statistically significant, exogenous firm characteristics and oil firms' financing decisions have less compelling economic significance. There is weaker support for the prediction that financial risk management reduces the exposure of oil stocks to crude oil price variation. Finally, extended modelling shows that mean reversion in oil prices also helps explain cross-sectional variation in the oil beta.

Advertising and promotion : an integrated marketing communications perspective

This text explores the area of advertising and promotion practice. It shows how real organisations coordinate the various elements of the promotional mix with other marketing activities."--Provided by publisher

Understanding body image disturbance in the promotion of mental health : a discourse analytic study

Health care interventions in the area of body image disturbance and eating disorders largely involve individual treatment approaches, while prevention and health promotion are relatively underexplored. A review of health promotion activities in the area of body image in Australia revealed three programmes, the most extensive and longest standing having been established in 1992. The aims of this programme are to reduce body image dissatisfaction and inappropriate eating behaviour, especially among women. Because health promotion is concerned with the social aspects of health, it was hypothesized by the authors that a social understanding of body image and eating disorders might be advanced in a health promotion setting and reflected in the approach to practice. In order to examine approaches to body image in health promotion, 10 health professionals responsible for the design and management of this programme participated in a series of semi-structured interviews between 1997 and 2000. Three discursive themes were evident in health workers' explanations of body image problems: (1) cognitive-behavioural themes; (2) gender themes; and (3) socio-cultural themes. While body image problems were constructed as psychological problems that are particularly experienced by women, their origins were largely conceived to be socio-cultural. The implications of these constructions are critically discussed in terms of the approach to health promotion used in this programme.

Evaluation in health outcomes research : linking theories, methodologies and practice in health promotion.

Health outcomes research has developed as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of health care interventions and as an approach to informing resource allocation. The use of a health outcomes approach in health promotion has made increasing demands on evaluation methodologies to demonstrate program effectiveness. However, criticism of the contribution of health promotion to outcomes research has made several assumptions about the use of qualitative methodologies and the content of program objectives largely derived from a biomedical approach. In contrast to the measurement of biomedical interventions in clinical health care, health promotion practice involves social phenomena, wide-reaching cultural, psychological, political and ideological problems and issues. The integration of methodologies of health promotion evaluation will inform further conceptualisation of the health outcomes approach with the differentiation of three types of outcomes: health development outcomes; social health outcomes; and biomedical health outcomes. It is concluded that this differentiation moves away from dualist concepts that advocate the replacement of goals and targets with regional and locally based approaches. Rather, the future direction for health promotion evaluation needs to employ a framework that elaborates multiple methodologies and approaches necessary for establishing what relationships exist between morbidity, mortality, health advancement and equity.

The use of SMS messaging for physical activity promotion : preferences of Australian adolescents and their parents

OBJECTIVE: Recent increases in youth mobile phone ownership and usage may provide a unique and innovative opportunity for engagement by health promoters, via a familiar and immediately accessible medium. This study investigated adolescents’ and their parents’ preferences for promoting physical activity via means of SMS messaging. METHODS: Adolescents (36 males and 76 females) and their parents (37 males 75 females) were recruited from two non-denominational same-sex private schools, in Brisbane, Australia. The mean age and standard deviation (SD) for adolescents and parents was 14.03 (0.58) and 47.18 (4.65) respectively. Participants responded to a series of questions regarding mobile phone ownership, and preferences for physical activity, school-based physical activity programs, and programs invovling SMS messaging. Data analysis included descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. T-tests were employed to measure gender effect. RESULTS: Overall, 47 (42%) parents desired their child to be more physically active, and were interested for their child to participate in a school-based physical activity program. Of those parents, 16 (34%) parents were interested in their child participating in an SMS-based physical activity program, with 21 (45%) not interested, and 10 (21%) neutral. One hundred and four (95%) adolescents owned a mobile phone, with 84 (82%) of those adolescents wanting to be more physically active. Of those adolescents, 14 (17%) were interested in participating in an SMS-based physical activity program, with 40 (48%) not interested, and 30 (36%) neutral. There was no significant gender effect. CONCLUSIONS: Although SMS messaging may provide an innovative method for youth physical activity promotion, low levels of interest are concerning. These results differ from other studies utilising SMS messaging for the purpose of health promotion, where more positive feedback from participants were reported. A screening process to gauge interest prior to the implementation of any SMS-based health promotion program may prove invaluable toward the success of the program.

The contribution of psychosocial factors to socioeconomic differences in food purchasing

In developed countries the relationship between socioeconomic position (SEP) and health is unequivocal. Those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged are known to experience higher morbidity and mortality from a range of chronic diet-related conditions compared to those of higher SEP. Socioeconomic inequalities in diet are well established. Compared to their more advantaged counterparts, those of low SEP are consistently found to consume diets less consistent with dietary guidelines (i.e. higher in fat, salt and sugar and lower in fibre, fruit and vegetables). Although the reasons for dietary inequalities remain unclear, understanding how such differences arise is important for the development of strategies to reduce health inequalities. Both environmental (e.g. proximity of supermarkets, price, and availability of foods) and psychosocial (e.g. taste preference, nutrition knowledge) influences are proposed to account for inequalities in food choices. Although in the United States (US), United Kingdom (UK), and parts of Australia, environmental factors are associated with socioeconomic differences in food choices, these factors do not completely account for the observed inequalities. Internationally, this context has prompted calls for further exploration of the role of psychological and social factors in relation to inequalities in food choices. It is this task that forms the primary goal of this PhD research. In the small body of research examining the contribution of psychosocial factors to inequalities in food choices, studies have focussed on food cost concerns, nutrition knowledge or health concerns. These factors are generally found to be influential. However, since a range of psychosocial factors are known determinants of food choices in the general population, it is likely that a range of factors also contribute to inequalities in food choices. Identification of additional psychosocial factors of relevance to inequalities in food choices would provide new opportunities for health promotion, including the adaption of existing strategies. The methodological features of previous research have also hindered the advancement of knowledge in this area and a lack of qualitative studies has resulted in a dearth of descriptive information on this topic. This PhD investigation extends previous research by assessing a range of psychosocial factors in relation to inequalities in food choices using both quantitative and qualitative techniques. Secondary data analyses were undertaken using data obtained from two Brisbane-based studies, the Brisbane Food Study (N=1003, conducted in 2000), and the Sixty Families Study (N=60, conducted in 1998). Both studies involved main household food purchasers completing an interviewer-administered survey within their own home. Data pertaining to food-purchasing, and psychosocial, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics were collected in each study. The mutual goals of both the qualitative and quantitative phases of this investigation were to assess socioeconomic differences in food purchasing and to identify psychosocial factors relevant to any observed differences. The quantitative methods then additionally considered whether the associations examined differed according to the socioeconomic indicator used (i.e. income or education). The qualitative analyses made a unique contribution to this project by generating detailed descriptions of socioeconomic differences in psychosocial factors. Those with lower levels of income and education were found to make food purchasing choices less consistent with dietary guidelines compared to those of high SEP. The psychosocial factors identified as relevant to food-purchasing inequalities were: taste preferences, health concerns, health beliefs, nutrition knowledge, nutrition concerns, weight concerns, nutrition label use, and several other values and beliefs unique to particular socioeconomic groups. Factors more tenuously or inconsistently related to socioeconomic differences in food purchasing were cost concerns, and perceived adequacy of the family diet. Evidence was displayed in both the quantitative and qualitative analyses to suggest that psychosocial factors contribute to inequalities in food purchasing in a collective manner. The quantitative analyses revealed that considerable overlap in the socioeconomic variation in food purchasing was accounted for by key psychosocial factors of importance, including taste preference, nutrition concerns, nutrition knowledge, and health concerns. Consistent with these findings, the qualitative transcripts demonstrated the interplay between such influential psychosocial factors in determining food-purchasing choices. The qualitative analyses found socioeconomic differences in the prioritisation of psychosocial factors in relation to food choices. This is suggestive of complex cultural factors that distinguish advantaged and disadvantaged groups and result in socioeconomically distinct schemas related to health and food choices. Compared to those of high SEP, those of lower SEP were less likely to indicate that health concerns, nutrition concerns, or food labels influenced food choices, and exhibited lower levels of nutrition knowledge. In the absence of health or nutrition-related concerns, taste preferences tended to dominate the food purchasing choices of those of low SEP. Overall, while cost concerns did not appear to be a main determinant of socioeconomic differences in food purchasing, this factor had a dominant influence on the food choices of some of the most disadvantaged respondents included in this research. The findings of this study have several implications for health promotion. The integrated operation of psychosocial factors on food purchasing inequalities indicates that multiple psychosocial factors may be appropriate to target in health promotion. It also seems possible that the inter-relatedness of psychosocial factors would allow health promotion targeting a single psychosocial factor to have a flow-on affect in terms of altering other influential psychosocial factors. This research also suggests that current mass marketing approaches to health promotion may not be effective across all socioeconomic groups due to differences in the priorities and main factors of influence in food purchasing decisions across groups. In addition to the practical recommendations for health promotion, this investigation, through the critique of previous research, and through the substantive study findings, has highlighted important methodological considerations for future research. Of particular note are the recommendations pertaining to the selection of socioeconomic indicators, measurement of relevant constructs, consideration of confounders, and development of an analytical approach. Addressing inequalities in health has been noted as a main objective by many health authorities and governments internationally. It is envisaged that the substantive and methodological findings of this thesis will make a useful contribution towards this important goal.

Ownership, corporate governance and timeliness of price discovery : Australian evidence

This study investigates whether and how a firm’s ownership and corporate governance affect its timeliness of price discovery, which is referred to as the speed of incorporation of value-relevant information into the stock price. Using a panel data of 1,138 Australian firm-year observations from 2001 to 2008, we predict and find a non-linear relationship between ownership concentration and the timeliness of price discovery. We test the identity of the largest shareholder and find that only firms with family as the largest shareholder exhibit faster price discovery. There is no evidence that suggests that the presence of a second largest shareholder affects the timeliness of price discovery materially. Although we find a positive association between corporate governance quality and the timeliness of price discovery, as expected, there is no interaction effect between the largest shareholding and corporate governance in relation to the timeliness of price discovery. Further tests show no evidence of severe endogeneity problems in our study.

Pre-service Physical Education teachers and concerns regarding their ability to successfully facilitate school-based physical activity promotion strategies

Regular physical activity (PA) in youth has numerous immediate and long-term health benefits. With several studies indicating low levels of youth PA globally, schools settings have become increasingly critical settings for youth health promotion strategies. The role of physical education (PE) teachers has long been considered central to the facilitation of such strategies. However, PE teachers have a selfreported lack of knowledge, skills, understanding, and competence to successfully implement these strategies. Tertiary education programs are fundamental to adequately preparing, and shaping the attitudes and philosophies of future PE teachers towards their involvement within these programs. The aim of this investigation was to explore the beliefs and perceptions of future secondary school PE teachers, regarding their potential roles in future school-based programs designed to promote student PA. Fifty-seven (21 males and 36 females) pre-service PE teachers completed a series of open-ended survey questions concerning their perceptions towards participating in school-based PA promotion programs both as preservice during practicum, and prospectively as practising teachers. Responses were analysed thematically. Participants responded both positively and enthusiastically to both questions. Concerns regarding time, and the intention or expectation to participate in such programs were also key themes for pre-service and practicing teacher participation respectively. Critically in this study, participants did not identify any limitations which may impact upon their ability to successfully promote youth PA in school settings. This may indicate that participants have misconceptions regarding their ability to fulfil this role, or conversely, the deficiency of current PE teachers regarding school-based PA promotion has been recognised by the tertiary institution, and addressed to adequately prepare its students. School-based PA promotion is an integral element of pre-service PE teacher education, and ongoing professional development of practicing PE teachers. This trend is expected to continue in the future, in order to address ongoing public health concerns.

Do adolescents ‘like’ the use of social networking and associated technologies for physical activity promotion?

Physical activity has been identified as a key behaviour in determining an individual’s health and functioning. Adolescent physical inactivity has been shown to track strongly through to adulthood. Interventions in youth to promote and increase physical activity have had mixed results. The significant rise over the past decade in time spent by adolescents performing social networking may provide a unique opportunity for health promoters to interact with adolescents through a familiar medium. The purpose of was study is to investigate the potential utility of social networking and associated technologies for the promotion of physical activity amongst adolescents. Participants were recruited from two nondenominational same-sex private schools, from high socioeconomic backgrounds in Brisbane, Australia. A total of 112 (90.3%) participants had complete data sets and were included in the analysis. Account ownership and rates of access to some social networking sites were high. However, a combination of a lack of interest and additional risks associated with social networking utilities, means that caution should be undertaken prior to the commencement of any intervention seeking to increase engagement in physical activities through these mediums. Student smart phone access and interest in smart phone applications for physical activity promotion purposes were moderate, and may provide opportunities for samples of adolescents from high socioeconomic backgrounds who are more likely to have access to appropriate technologies. As technology advances, the rate of smart phone ownership as opposed to overall phone ownership is likely to steadily increase over time. Access and use of information technology by children likely to continue to become more convenient. This makes smart phone applications as a means for physical activity promotion progressively more practical, and a promising future option.