Bayesian estimation of the spatial Durbin error model with an application to voter turnout in the 2004 presidential election

The potential for spatial dependence in models of voter turnout, although plausible from a theoretical perspective, has not been adequately addressed in the literature. Using recent advances in Bayesian computation, we formulate and estimate the previously unutilized spatial Durbin error model and apply this model to the question of whether spillovers and unobserved spatial dependence in voter turnout matters from an empirical perspective. Formal Bayesian model comparison techniques are employed to compare the normal linear model, the spatially lagged X model (SLX), the spatial Durbin model, and the spatial Durbin error model. The results overwhelmingly support the spatial Durbin error model as the appropriate empirical model.

Don’t trust your poll lead: how public opinion changes during referendum campaigns

Politicians call (or call for) referendums with increasing frequency. But how can they know they will win? Looking at the polls is not enough: opinion during referendum campaigns is often volatile. But this chapter shows that there are nevertheless some recurring patterns that allow us to make reasonable predictions in most cases.

Towards Presidential Rule in Ukraine : Hybrid Regime Dynamics under Semi-Presidentialism

This article sets out to analyse recent regime developments in Ukraine in relation to semi-presidentialism. The article asks: to what extent and in what ways theoretical arguments against semi-presidentialism (premier-presidential and president-parliamentary systems) are relevant for understanding the changing directions of the Ukrainian regime since the 1990s? The article also reviews the by now overwhelming evidence suggesting that President Yanukovych is turning Ukraine into a more authoritarian hybrid regime and raises the question to what extent the president-parliamentary system might serve this end. The article argues that both kinds of semi-presidentialism have, in different ways, exacerbated rather than mitigated institutional conflict and political stalemate. The return to the president-parliamentary system in 2010 – the constitutional arrangement with the most dismal record of democratisation – was a step in the wrong direction. The premier-presidential regime was by no means ideal, but it had at least two advantages. It weakened the presidential dominance and it explicitly anchored the survival of the government in parliament. The return to the 1996 constitution ties in well with the notion that President Viktor Yanukovych has embarked on an outright authoritarian path.

Race as political strategy by US presidential candidates: a case study

Race has played an important part in US presidential politics in contemporary history. Different political parties and candidates have followed covert strategies playing on the prejudices of white voters both cognitively and emotionally by linking racerelated issues to the majority's individual and group interests. This elite discourse carried to the public by the mainstream media, along with media's practices of stereotyping, priming, framing and agenda setting, help to justify racial prejudice, discrimination against minorities and their marginalized status, while maintaining the status quo. Taking the social constructionist position, this case study examines the opinions expressed by a sample of undecided voters selected from different geographic locations at various stages of the 1992 US presidential campaign under the themes 'Candidates' racial prejudice' and 'Race is used as political strategy by candidates.'

State Political Action Committee Financing and the 2008 Presidential Election: A Detailed Look at Mitt Romney and the Commonwealth PACs

This study looks at the historical context in which PACs developed, as well as the current legal environment in which they operate. It will also briefly discuss the legal and procedural challenges that candidates face and the ways in which PACs alleviate some of these pressures in ways that presidential committees cannot. An understanding of the strategic dilemmas which cause candidates to seek extraneous structures through which to establish campaign networks is essential to extrapolating the potential future of campaign finance strategy. Furthermore, this study provides an in-depth analysis of the state Commonwealth PACs both in terms of fundraising and spending, and discusses the central issues this state PAC strategy raises with respect to campaign finance law. The study will conclude with a look into the future of campaign financing and the role these state-level PACs may play if current rules are not revised.

Older persons' perception of risk of falling : implications for fall-prevention campaigns

Objectives. We examined older people's attitudes about falls and implications for the design of fall-prevention awareness campaigns.

Methods. We assessed data from (1) computer-assisted telephone surveys conducted in 2002 with Australians 60 years and older in Northern Rivers, New South Wales (site of a previous fall-prevention program; n=1601), and Wide Bay, Queensland (comparison community; n=1601), and (2) 8 focus groups (n=73).

Results. Participants from the previous intervention site were less likely than were comparison participants to agree that falls are not preventable (odds ratio [OR]=0.76; 95% confidence interval [Cl]=0.65, 0.90) and more likely to rate the prevention of falls a high priority (OR=1.31; 95% CI=1.09, 1.57). There was no difference between the groups for self-perceived risk of falls; more than 60% rated their risk as low. Those with a low perceived risk were more likely to be men, younger, partnered, and privately insured, and to report better health and no history of falls. Focus group data indicated that older people preferred messages that emphasized health and independence rather than falls.

Conclusions. Although older people accepted traditional fall-prevention messages, most viewed them as not personally relevant. Messages that promote health and independence may be more effective.

Public relations campaigns

Designed to guide current and aspiring Public Relations professionals through the campaign development and implementation process. It illustrates the application of planning theory to real life scenarios to provide a practical approach for planning a successful campaign. M. Sheehan, Deakin University; R. Xavier, QUT.