Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Padrões distintos de congruência climática em duas espécies invasoras de prosopis em zonas semi-áridas da América do Sul

Based on climate data and occurrence records, ecological niche models (ENM) are an important opportunity to identify areas at risk or vulnerable to biological invasion. These models are based on the assumption that there is a match between the climatic characteristic of native and invaded regions predicting the potential distribution of exotic species. Using new methods to measure niche overlap, we chose two exotic species fairly common in semi-arid regions of South America, Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) D.C. and Prosopis pallida (H. ; B. ex. Willd) HBK, to test the climate matching hypothesis. Our results indicate that both species occur with little niche overlap in the native region while the inverse pattern is observed in the invaded region on South America, where both species occur with high climatic overlap. Maybe some non-climate factor act limiting the spread of P. pallida on the native range. We believe that a founder effect can explain these similarities between species niche in the invaded region once the seeds planted in Brazil came from a small region on the Native range (Piura in Peru), where both species occur sympatric. Our hypothesis of a founder effect may be evident when we look at the differences between the predictions of the models built in the native and invaded ranges. Furthermore, our results indicate that P. juliflora shows high levels of climate matching between native and invaded ranges. However, conclusions about climate matching of P. pallida should be taken with caution. Our models based on climatic variables provide multiple locations suitable for occurrence of both species in regions where they still don t have occurrence records, including places of high interest for conservation.

Taxonomia e biogeografia da espécie politípica Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus (TEMMINCK, 1822) (Aves: THAMNOPHILIDAE)

The genus Herpsilochmus is composed mainly of cryptic species, among them is Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus, which is currently represented by four subspecies: H. r. rufimarginatus, H. r. frater, H. r. scapularis and H. r. exiguus. Differences in plumage and vocalization suggest that there are more than one species involved in this complex. Thus this and other subspecific taxa need urgent revision, the disjunct distribution of this species also allows us to infer the relationship between birds that occur in this biome and / or different centers of endemism. This study aims to make a taxonomic revision of the taxa included in the complex time Herpsilochmus rufimarginatus based on morphological, morphometric, vocals and geographical distribution of this bird. Besides creating distribution models current potential and make the reconstruction of the distribution bygone using ecological niche modeling, and testing the niche conservatism and divergence between different subspecies. Consultations for examination of the skins of specimens of the museums: Museum of Zoology, University of São Paulo (MZUSP), National Museum of Rio de Janeiro (MN) and Emilio Goeldi Museum of Pará (MPEG), and the skins deposited at the collection of Ornithological Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (COUFRN). We studied the following measures length of specimens: exposed culmen, culmen and total culmen nostril, tarsus, wing and tail flattened. The voice analysis was performed with vocalizations banks and / or digital banks people where 17 voice parameters were measured. This information and more available in the literature were used to assemble a bunch of data under the limit distribution of taxa and generate ecological niche models. This analyzes carried out in the program Maxent, having as model selection criterion the AUC, and the models were greater than 0.80 are considered good models. Environmental data for the realization of the modeling were downloaded on the website of Worldclim. The morphometric information, vocals and geographic distribution point for the separation of these taxa to be considering various uni and multivariate analyzes. The potential distribution models performed well (AUC> 0.80), and its distribution associated with environmental characteristics of the Amazon forest and Atlantic forest (forests of south and southeast, northeast and forest). The reconstruction of the distribution indicates a possible contact between the southern part of the Atlantic forest in the northern part of the Amazon. The analysis of niche overlap showed a low overlap between taxa and comparisons between the null model and the generated overlay link probably occurring niche conservatism. The data suggest that the taxa that occur in the Amazon and Atlantic forest represent three distinct species

Modelagem de nicho ecológico de anuros da Mata Atlântica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avifauna do estado do Acre: composição, distribuição geográfica e conservação

O estado do Acre faz fronteiras internacionais com o Peru e a Bolívia e nacionais com os estados do Amazonas e Rondônia. O Acre está localizado nas terras baixas da Amazônia sul‐ocidental, próximo ao sopé dos Andes, dentro de uma região considerada megadiversa da Amazônia brasileira. Apesar disso, a região ainda é pouco conhecida e considerada prioritária para a realização de novos levantamentos biológicos. Com o intuito de contribuir para o conhecimento da avifauna do sudoeste amazônico, este estudo teve como principais objetivos responder as seguintes questões: (a) Quantas e quais são as espécies de aves do estado do Acre? (b) Como as espécies estão distribuídas dentro do estado do Acre? e (c) Qual o estado de conservação das espécies residentes no estado do Acre? A metodologia para responder a estas questões contemplou: (a) uma ampla revisão bibliográfica; (b) dois anos de levantamento em campo, incluindo registros e a coletas de espécimes testemunhos; (c) a confecção do mapa de distribuição de cada táxon (incluindo espécies e subespécies); (d) a distribuição dos táxons pelas três grandes regiões interfluviais do Estado (leste, central e oeste); (e) a identificação de zonas de contato e hibridização, baseada na distribuição dos táxons parapátridos dentro do Estado; (f) o cálculo da distribuição potencial dos táxons dentro do Acre, baseado na extrapolação da área ocupada por cada unidade ecológica (fitofisionomia) onde eles foram registrados; (g) o cálculo da meta de conservação de cada táxon residente no Estado e (h) uma análise de lacunas, baseada na sobreposição dos mapas de distribuição potencial de cada táxon com o das Áreas Protegidas do Estado. A análise de lacuna foi realizada tendo três diferentes cenários como referência: (a) primeiro cenário ‐ levou em consideração todas as Áreas Protegidas; (b) o segundo cenário – levou em consideração apenas as Unidades de Conservação ‐ UCs de Proteção Integral e (c) terceiro cenário – levou em consideração apenas as UCs de Proteção Integral + as de Uso Sustentável (exclusas as Terras Indígenas). A revisão bibliográfica e os levantamentos (históricos e de campo) tiveram início em agosto de 2005 e se estenderam até dezembro de 2007. Após o término da revisão bibliográfica e das expedições em campo, foram compilados 7.141 registros de aves para o todo o estado do Acre. Destes, 4. 623 são de espécimes coletados, dos quais, 2.295 (49,6%) são oriundos de coletas feitas durante a realização deste estudo. Confirmou‐se para o Acre a presença de 655 espécies biológicas, distribuídas em 73 Famílias e 23 Ordens. Como consequência direta deste estudo, cinco novas espécies foram acrescentadas à lista de aves brasileiras. Registrou‐se também, 59 espécies migratórias, das quais, 30 (50,8%) são migrantes neárticas, 11 (18,6%) foram consideradas como migrantes intratropicais e 18 (30,5%) como migrantes austrais. De todas as espécies registradas no Estado, 44 são endêmicas do centro de endemismo Inambari. Dos 556 táxons de aves florestais residentes no Acre, 72,8% (405) distribui‐se nas três sub‐regiões do Estado; 10,0% (56) foi registrado apenas na sub‐região oeste; 5,3% (30) apenas na sub‐região leste e 0,5% (03) apenas na sub‐região central. Ao menos seis pares de táxons irmãos apresentaram padrão de distribuição alopátrida e 15 conjuntos de táxons apresentaram distribuição parapátrida dentro do Estado. Foram identificadas duas zonas de contato secundário (leste/oeste) e duas possíveis zonas de hibridização (leste/oeste) dentro do Estado. As análises de lacunas mostraram que no primeiro cenário, 87,1% dos táxons atingiram 100% da meta de conservação; 12% ficaram em classes de conservação intermediárias, ou seja, em lacuna parcial de proteção e apenas 0,8% ficaram em lacuna total de proteção. No segundo cenário, apenas 0,6% dos táxons atingiram 100% da meta de conservação; 97,6% ficaram em lacuna parcial e 1,8% ficaram em lacuna total de proteção. No terceiro cenário, 73,5% dos táxons atingiram 100% da meta de conservação; 25,5% ficaram em lacuna parcial e apenas 0,8% ficaram em lacuna total de proteção. As principais conclusões obtidas a partir deste estudo foram: (a) que a riqueza avifaunística do estado do Acre é bastante expressiva, porém, o número de espécies detectadas deverá aumentar à medida que novos levantamentos forem realizados; (b) que os rios Purus e Juruá não são as barreiras físicas que determinam o padrão de distribuição da maioria das aves residentes no estado do Acre; (c) que a presença de zonas de contato secundário, não coincidentes com o curso dos dois principais rios do Estado, dá suporte a ideia de que fatores não ligados a uma barreira física devem estar atuando na manutenção do padrão de distribuição atual de alguns táxons de aves residentes no Acre; (d) que o número de espécies “desprotegidas” ou em “lacuna parcial de proteção” entre a avifauna do Acre é muito baixo quando todo o sistema de Áreas Protegidas é levado em consideração, porém este número aumenta com a exclusão das Unidades de Conservação de Uso Sustentável e das Terras Indígenas; (e) que as aves restritas às campinas e campinaranas do oeste do Acre são as únicas que se encontram em lacuna do sistema de áreas protegidas do Acre, indicando a necessidade de se criar uma ou mais Unidades de Conservação para proteger este habitat específico.

Pinning-Effekte kolumnarer Schwerionenspuren in Kuprat-Supraleiter-Dünnschichten

In this work the flux line dynamics in High-Temperature Superconductor (HTSC) thin films in the presence of columnar defects was studied using electronic transport measurements. The columnar defects which are correlated pinning centers for vortices were generated by irradiation with swift heavy ions at the Gesellschaft für Schwerionenforschung (GSI) in Darmstadt. In the first part, the vortex dynamics is discussed within the framework of the Bose-glass model. This approach describes the continuous transition from a vortex liquid to a Bose-glass phase which is characterized by the localization of the flux lines at the columnar defects. The critical behavior of the characteristic length and time scales for temperatures in the vicinity of this phase transition were probed by scaling properties of experimentally obtained current-voltage characteristics. In contrast to the predicted universal properties of the critical behavior the scaling analysis shows a strong dependence of the dynamic critical exponent on the experimentally accessible electric field range. In addition, the predicted divergence of the activation energy in the limit of low current densities was experimentally not confirmed.The dynamic behavior of flux lines in spatially resolved irradiation geometries is reported in the second part. Weak pinning channels with widths between 10 µm and 100 µm were generated in a strong pinning environment with the use of metal masks and the GSI microprobe, respectively. Measurements of the anisotropic transport properties of these structures show a striking resemblance to the results in YBCO single crystals with unidirected twin boundaries which were interpreted as a guided vortex motion effect. The use of two additional test bridges allowed to determine in parallel the resistivities of the irradiated and unirradiated parts as well as the respective current-voltage characteristics. These measurements provided the input parameters for a numerical simulation of the potential distribution in the spatially resolved irradiation geometry. The results are interpreted within a model that describes the hydrodynamic interaction between a Bose-glass phase and a vortex liquid. The interface between weakly pinned flux lines in the unirradiated channels and strongly pinned vortices leads to a nonuniform vortex velocity profile and therefore a variation of the local electric field. The length scale of these interactions was estimated for the first time in measuring the local variation of the electric field profile in a Bose-glass contact.Finally, a method for the determination of the true temperature in HTSC thin films at high dissipation levels is described. In this regime of electronic transport the occurrence of a flux flow instability is accompanied by heating effects in the vortex system. The heat propagation properties of the film/substrate system are deduced from the time dependent voltage response to a short high current density pulse of rectangular shape. The influence of heavy ion irradiation on the heat resistance at the film/substrate interface is studied.

Diffusion of contrast medium after perineural injection of the palmar nerves: an in vivo and in vitro study

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Proximal diffusion of local anaesthetic solution after perineural anaesthesia may lead to the desensitisation of structures other than those intended. However, there is no evidence-based study demonstrating the potential distribution and diffusion of local anaesthetic solution after perineural analgesia in the distal limb. OBJECTIVE: To document the potential diffusion of local anaesthetic solution using a radiopaque contrast model and to evaluate the influence of walking compared with confinement in a stable after injection. METHODS: Radiopaque contrast medium was injected subcutaneously over one palmar nerve at the base of the proximal sesamoid bones in 6 nonlame mature horses. Horses were assigned randomly to stand still or walk after injection. Radiographs were obtained 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 min after injection and were analysed to determine the distribution and diffusion of the contrast medium. RESULTS: In 89% of injections an elongated pattern of the contrast medium was observed suggesting distribution along the neurovascular bundle. After 49% of injections a fine radiopaque line extended proximally from the contrast 'patch', and in 25% of injections a line extended distally. There was significant proximal and distal diffusion with time when sequential radiographs of each limb were compared. The greatest diffusion occurred in the first 10 min. Walking did not significantly influence the extent of either proximal or distal diffusion. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Significant proximal diffusion occurs in the first 10 min after perineural injection in the distal aspect of the limb and should be considered when interpreting nerve blocks. Distribution of local anaesthetic solution outside the fascia surrounding the neurovascular bundle or in lymphatic vessels may explain delayed or decreased effects.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of alpha brain electric fields, and cognitive modes

Brian electric activity is viewed as sequences of momentary maps of potential distribution. Frequency-domain source modeling, estimation of the complexity of the trajectory of the mapped brain field distributions in state space, and microstate parsing were used as analysis tools. Input-presentation as well as task-free (spontaneous thought) data collection paradigms were employed. We found: Alpha EEG field strength is more affected by visualizing mentation than by abstract mentation, both input-driven as well as self-generated. There are different neuronal populations and brain locations of the electric generators for different temporal frequencies of the brain field. Different alpha frequencies execute different brain functions as revealed by canonical correlations with mentation profiles. Different modes of mentation engage the same temporal frequencies at different brain locations. The basic structure of alpha electric fields implies inhomogeneity over time — alpha consists of concatenated global microstates in the sub-second range, characterized by quasi-stable field topographies, and rapid transitions between the microstates. In general, brain activity is strongly discontinuous, indicating that parsing into field landscape-defined microstates is appropriate. Different modes of spontaneous and induced mentation are associated with different brain electric microstates; these are proposed as candidates for psychophysiological ``atoms of thought''.

Brain electric microstates and momentary conscious mind states as building blocks of spontaneous thinking: I. Visual imagery and abstract thoughts

Prompted reports of recall of spontaneous, conscious experiences were collected in a no-input, no-task, no-response paradigm (30 random prompts to each of 13 healthy volunteers). The mentation reports were classified into visual imagery and abstract thought. Spontaneous 19-channel brain electric activity (EEG) was continuously recorded, viewed as series of momentary spatial distributions (maps) of the brain electric field and segmented into microstates, i.e. into time segments characterized by quasi-stable landscapes of potential distribution maps which showed varying durations in the sub-second range. Microstate segmentation used a data-driven strategy. Different microstates, i.e. different brain electric landscapes must have been generated by activity of different neural assemblies and therefore are hypothesized to constitute different functions. The two types of reported experiences were associated with significantly different microstates (mean duration 121 ms) immediately preceding the prompts; these microstates showed, across subjects, for abstract thought (compared to visual imagery) a shift of the electric gravity center to the left and a clockwise rotation of the field axis. Contrariwise, the microstates 2 s before the prompt did not differ between the two types of experiences. The results support the hypothesis that different microstates of the brain as recognized in its electric field implement different conscious, reportable mind states, i.e. different classes (types) of thoughts (mentations); thus, the microstates might be candidates for the `atoms of thought'.

Space–oriented EEG segmentation reveals changes in brain electric–field maps under the influence of a nootropic drug

Map landscape-based segmentation of the sequences of momentary potential distribution maps (42-channel recordings) into brain microstates during spontaneous brain activity was used to study brain electric field spatial effects of single doses of piracetam (2.9, 4.8, and 9.6 g Nootropil® UCB and placebo) in a double-blind study of five normal young volunteers. Four 15-second epochs were analyzed from each subject and drug condition. The most prominent class of microstates (covering 49% of the time) consisted of potential maps with a generally anterior-posterior field orientation. The map orientation of this microstate class showed an increasing clockwise deviation from the placebo condition with increasing drug doses (Fisher's probability product, p < 0.014). The results of this study suggest the use of microstate segmentation analysis for the assessment of central effects of medication in spontaneous multichannel electroencephalographic data, as a complementary approach to frequency-domain analysis.

EEG microstates during resting represent personality differences

We investigated the spontaneous brain electric activity of 13 skeptics and 16 believers in paranormal phenomena; they were university students assessed with a self-report scale about paranormal beliefs. 33-channel EEG recordings during no-task resting were processed as sequences of momentary potential distribution maps. Based on the maps at peak times of Global Field Power, the sequences were parsed into segments of quasi-stable potential distribution, the 'microstates'. The microstates were clustered into four classes of map topographies (A-D). Analysis of the microstate parameters time coverage, occurrence frequency and duration as well as the temporal sequence (syntax) of the microstate classes revealed significant differences: Believers had a higher coverage and occurrence of class B, tended to decreased coverage and occurrence of class C, and showed a predominant sequence of microstate concatenations from A to C to B to A that was reversed in skeptics (A to B to C to A). Microstates of different topographies, putative "atoms of thought", are hypothesized to represent different types of information processing.The study demonstrates that personality differences can be detected in resting EEG microstate parameters and microstate syntax. Microstate analysis yielded no conclusive evidence for the hypothesized relation between paranormal belief and schizophrenia.

Classes of multichannel EEG microstates in light and deep hypnotic conditions

The study assessed the brain electric mechanisms of light and deep hypnotic conditions in the framework of EEG temporal microstates. Multichannel EEG of healthy volunteers during initial resting, light hypnosis, deep hypnosis, and eventual recovery was analyzed into temporal EEG microstates of four classes. Microstates are defined by the spatial configuration of their potential distribution maps ([Symbol: see text]potential landscapes') on the head surface. Because different potential landscapes must have been generated by different active neural assemblies, it is reasonable to assume that they also incorporate different brain functions. The observed four microstate classes were very similar to the four standard microstate classes A, B, C, D [Koenig, T. et al. Neuroimage, 2002;16: 41-8] and were labeled correspondingly. We expected a progression of microstate characteristics from initial resting to light to deep hypnosis. But, all three microstate parameters (duration, occurrence/second and %time coverage) yielded values for initial resting and final recovery that were between those of the two hypnotic conditions of light and deep hypnosis. Microstates of the classes B and D showed decreased duration, occurrence/second and %time coverage in deep hypnosis compared to light hypnosis; this was contrary to microstates of classes A and C which showed increased values of all three parameters. Reviewing the available information about microstates in other conditions, the changes from resting to light hypnosis in certain respects are reminiscent of changes to meditation states, and changes to deep hypnosis of those in schizophrenic states.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the regional context, this could help to classify the density of risk and to accordingly target resources and measures for elimination.

Diffusion of contrast medium after four different techniques for analgesia of the proximal metacarpal region: an in vivo and in vitro study

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: There is limited information on potential diffusion of local anaesthetic solution after various diagnostic analgesic techniques of the proximal metacarpal region. OBJECTIVE: To document potential distribution of local anaesthetic solution following 4 techniques used for diagnostic analgesia of the proximal metacarpal region. METHODS: Radiodense contrast medium was injected around the lateral palmar or medial and lateral palmar metacarpal nerves in 8 mature horses, using 4 different techniques. Radiographs were obtained 0, 10 and 20 min after injection and were analysed subjectively. A mixture of radiodense contrast medium and methylene blue was injected into 4 cadaver limbs; the location of the contrast medium and dye was determined by radiography and dissection. RESULTS: Following perineural injection of the palmar metacarpal nerves, most of the contrast medium was distributed in an elongated pattern axial to the second and fourth metacarpal bones. The carpometacarpal joint was inadvertently penetrated in 4/8 limbs after injections of the palmar metacarpal nerves from medial and lateral approaches, and in 1/8 limbs when both injections were performed from the lateral approach. Following perineural injection of the lateral palmar nerve using a lateral approach, the contrast medium was diffusely distributed in all but one limb, in which the carpal sheath was inadvertently penetrated. In 5/8 limbs, following perineural injection of the lateral palmar nerve using a medial approach, the contrast medium diffused proximally to the distal third of the antebrachium. CONCLUSIONS AND POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Inadvertent penetration of the carpometacarpal joint is common after perineural injection of the palmar metacarpal nerves, but less so if both palmar metacarpal nerves are injected using a lateral approach. Following injection of the lateral palmar nerve using a medial approach, the entire palmar aspect of the carpus may be desensitised.

Using ecological niche models to support tree species selection for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions

Species selection for forest restoration is often supported by expert knowledge on local distribution patterns of native tree species. This approach is not applicable to largely deforested regions unless enough data on pre-human tree species distribution is available. In such regions, ecological niche models may provide essential information to support species selection in the framework of forest restoration planning. In this study we used ecological niche models to predict habitat suitability for native tree species in "Tierra de Campos" region, an almost totally deforested area of the Duero Basin (Spain). Previously available models provide habitat suitability predictions for dominant native tree species, but including non-dominant tree species in the forest restoration planning may be desirable to promote biodiversity, specially in largely deforested areas were near seed sources are not expected. We used the Forest Map of Spain as species occurrence data source to maximize the number of modeled tree species. Penalized logistic regression was used to train models using climate and lithological predictors. Using model predictions a set of tools were developed to support species selection in forest restoration planning. Model predictions were used to build ordered lists of suitable species for each cell of the study area. The suitable species lists were summarized drawing maps that showed the two most suitable species for each cell. Additionally, potential distribution maps of the suitable species for the study area were drawn. For a scenario with two dominant species, the models predicted a mixed forest (Quercus ilex and a coniferous tree species) for almost one half of the study area. According to the models, 22 non-dominant native tree species are suitable for the study area, with up to six suitable species per cell. The model predictions pointed to Crataegus monogyna, Juniperus communis, J.oxycedrus and J.phoenicea as the most suitable non-dominant native tree species in the study area. Our results encourage further use of ecological niche models for forest restoration planning in largely deforested regions.