Monetary Policy, Stock Price Misalignments and Macroeconomic Instability

Perhaps the most fundamental prediction of financial theory is that the expected returns on financial assets are determined by the amount of risk contained in their payoffs. Assets with a riskier payoff pattern should provide higher expected returns than assets that are otherwise similar but provide payoffs that contain less risk. Financial theory also predicts that not all types of risks should be compensated with higher expected returns. It is well-known that the asset-specific risk can be diversified away, whereas the systematic component of risk that affects all assets remains even in large portfolios. Thus, the asset-specific risk that the investor can easily get rid of by diversification should not lead to higher expected returns, and only the shared movement of individual asset returns – the sensitivity of these assets to a set of systematic risk factors – should matter for asset pricing. It is within this framework that this thesis is situated. The first essay proposes a new systematic risk factor, hypothesized to be correlated with changes in investor risk aversion, which manages to explain a large fraction of the return variation in the cross-section of stock returns. The second and third essays investigate the pricing of asset-specific risk, uncorrelated with commonly used risk factors, in the cross-section of stock returns. The three essays mentioned above use stock market data from the U.S. The fourth essay presents a new total return stock market index for the Finnish stock market beginning from the opening of the Helsinki Stock Exchange in 1912 and ending in 1969 when other total return indices become available. Because a total return stock market index for the period prior to 1970 has not been available before, academics and stock market participants have not known the historical return that stock market investors in Finland could have achieved on their investments. The new stock market index presented in essay 4 makes it possible, for the first time, to calculate the historical average return on the Finnish stock market and to conduct further studies that require long time-series of data.

Jatropha cultivation in southern India: assessing farmers' experiences

Together with 106 farmers who started growing Jatropha (Jatropha curcas L.) in 20042006, this research sought to increase the knowledge around the real-life experience of Jatropha farming in the southern India states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Launched as an alternative for diesel in India, Jatropha has been promoted as a non-edible plant that could grow on poor soils, yield oil-rich seeds for production of bio-diesel, and not compete directly with food production. Through interviews with the farmers, information was gathered regarding their socio-economic situation, the implementation and performance of their Jatropha plantations, and their reasons for continuing or discontinuing Jatropha cultivation. Results reveal that 82% of the farmers had substituted former cropland for their Jatropha cultivation. By 2010, 85% (n = 90) of the farmers who cultivated Jatropha in 2004 had stopped. Cultivating the crop did not give the economic returns the farmers anticipated, mainly due to a lack of information about the crop and its maintenance during cultivation and due to water scarcity. A majority of the farmers irrigated and applied fertilizer, and even pesticides. Many problems experienced by the farmers were due to limited knowledge about cultivating Jatropha caused by poor planning and implementation of the national Jatropha program. Extension services, subsidies, and other support were not provided as promised. The farmers who continued cultivation had means of income other than Jatropha and held hopes of a future Jatropha market. The lack of market structures, such as purchase agreements and buyers, as well as a low retail price for the seeds, were frequently stated as barriers to Jatropha cultivation. For Jatropha biodiesel to perform well, efforts are needed to improve yield levels and stability through genetic improvements and drought tolerance, as well as agriculture extension services to support adoption of the crop. Government programs will -probably be more effective if implementing biodiesel production is conjoined with stimulating the demand for Jatropha biodiesel. To avoid food-biofuel competition, additional measures may be needed such as land-use restrictions for Jatropha producers and taxes on biofuels or biofuel feedstocks to improve the competitiveness of the food sector compared to the bioenergy sector. (c) 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

GHERS: Greater Harvest and Economic Returns from Shrimp: Final program performance report

The Greater Harvest and Economic Returns from Shrimp (GHERS) is an initiative of Poverty Reduction by Increasing the Competitiveness of Enterprises (PRICE) project, funded by USAID. The objective of GHERS was to increase the productive capacity of existing farms and enhance quality of shrimp delivered to processors adding over $ 45 million to current sales, $10 million new investment and 14,000 new jobs. This final performance report presents the activities and achievements of the project since 2008.

Preservation of Indian oil sardine (Sardinella longiceps) in iced and chilled seawater. Part 2 - Changes during storage with particular reference to salt penetration and lipid deterioration during CSW holding

Oil sardines in prime condition were chilled on board. Two lots were chilled in CSW (samples C & CI), one lot ice (sample I) and a fourth lot was left un-iced on deck (sample AI). Sample AI was iced after landing and sample CI was taken out of the chilled seawater and. iced. All the four samples were kept in a chilled room for storage studies. Sample C, chilled and stored in CSW, recorded a gradual gain in weight and an increase in salt content of the muscle. Presence of salt did not seem to cause any excessive protein denaturation. Salt extractability decreased at a gradual rate in all cases. Presence of salt seemed to wield no noticeable influence on lipid hydrolysis and subsequent peroxidation. Results of chemical and sensory evaluations highlight this. Holding sardines in CSW gave a product of excellent quality for the first four to five days of storage. Beyond the fifth day of storage quality deteriorated rapidly and there was no noticeable superiority for this sample (sample C) over the on board iced fish. This was evident in the sensory evaluation as well. However, a storage life of five days in a readily acceptable state is sufficient for the fish to be disposed in the market at a premium sale price over other landings of the same species.

Forecasting high-frequency futures returns using online langevin dynamics

Forecasting the returns of assets at high frequency is the key challenge for high-frequency algorithmic trading strategies. In this paper, we propose a jump-diffusion model for asset price movements that models price and its trend and allows a momentum strategy to be developed. Conditional on jump times, we derive closed-form transition densities for this model. We show how this allows us to extract a trend from high-frequency finance data by using a Rao-Blackwellized variable rate particle filter to filter incoming price data. Our results show that even in the presence of transaction costs our algorithm can achieve a Sharpe ratio above 1 when applied across a portfolio of 75 futures contracts at high frequency. © 2011 IEEE.

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

An analysis of implied volatility jump dynamics: Novel functional data representation in crude oil markets

The predominant fear in capital markets is that of a price spike. Commodity markets differ in that there is a fear of both upward and down jumps, this results in implied volatility curves displaying distinct shapes when compared to equity markets. The use of a novel functional data analysis (FDA) approach, provides a framework to produce and interpret functional objects that characterise the underlying dynamics of oil future options. We use the FDA framework to examine implied volatility, jump risk, and pricing dynamics within crude oil markets. Examining a WTI crude oil sample for the 2007–2013 period, which includes the global financial crisis and the Arab Spring, strong evidence is found of converse jump dynamics during periods of demand and supply side weakness. This is used as a basis for an FDA-derived Merton (1976) jump diffusion optimised delta hedging strategy, which exhibits superior portfolio management results over traditional methods.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Synthesis of new vegetable oil-based polymeric materials

A crescente procura de recursos fosseis a que se tem assistido nos ultimos anos, tem resultado num crescimento sem precedentes dos precos, com consequencias imprevisiveis e que levara, no espaco de decadas, ao seu inevitavel esgotamento. A procura de um modelo de desenvolvimento sustentavel, baseado em recursos renovaveis e o grande desafio que se coloca a civilizacao no seculo XXI. A biomassa vegetal, atraves das designadas gBio-refinarias h, e uma alternativa logica para a producao de produtos quimicos e de materiais mas tambem de combustiveis e energia. Os oleos vegetais constituem uma das fracoes da biomassa vegetal, cuja exploracao tem merecido redobrada atencao nos ultimos anos, como fonte de materiais e de combustiveis. Assim, a presente dissertacao tem por objetivo o desenvolvimento de novos materiais polimericos derivados de oleos vegetais, seguindo duas abordagens distintas, nomeadamente a preparacao de polimeros atraves de polimerizacao por etapas e polimerizacao em cadeia (Parte B e C, respetivamente). Em primeiro lugar, foram sintetizados poliesteres alifaticos de cadeia longa a partir de monomeros provenientes do oleo de colza (Capitulo III). A auto-metatese do acido erucico com catalisadores de rutenio, seguida de hidrogenacao da ligacao dupla, originou o acido 1,26-hexacosanodioico, que por sua vez foi convertido em hexacosano-1,26-diol. Subsequentemente, a policondensacao do acido ƒ¿,ƒÖ-dicarboxilico de cadeia longa com o hexacosano-1,26-diol originou o poliester 26,26. O diacido C26 foi tambem polimerizado com outros alcano-diois de cadeia curta, nomeadamente o dodecano-1,12-diol e o butano-1,2-diol, produzindo, respetivamente, os poliesteres 12,26 e 4,26. Estes poliesteres de fontes 100% renovaveis possuem valores de Mn na ordem dos 8-14 kDa e valores de PDI entre 2.1 e 2.7. As propriedades destes poliesteres alifaticos foram avaliadas atraves de varias tecnicas, revelando elevada cristalinidade (com uma estrutura cristalina como a do polietileno) e elevadas temperaturas de fusao (74-104 ‹C), cristalizacao (68-92 ‹C) e degradacao (323-386 ‹C). Em segundo lugar, foram sintetizados polimeros lineares termo-reversiveis a partir de derivados do oleo de ricinio (Capitulo IV). Para tal foram preparados monomeros que incorporam aneis furanicos inseridos atraves do acoplamento tiol-eno, e que posteriormente foram polimerizados pela reacao de Diels-Alder (DA) entre os grupos furano (dieno A) e estruturas complementares do tipo maleimida (dienofilo B). Para as polimerizacoes DA foram consideradas duas abordagens diferentes, nomeadamente (i) o uso de monomeros com dois aneis furanicos terminais em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistemas AA+BB) e (ii) a utilizacao de um monomero que incorpora ambos os grupos reativos, furano e maleimida, na sua estrutura (sistema AB). Este estudo demonstrou claramente que ambas as estratégias foram bem sucedidas embora com diferentes resultados em termos da natureza dos produtos obtidos. Estes polímeros lineares apresentam valores relativamente baixos de Tg (-40 to -2 °C) devido à natureza flexível dos grupos separadores das funções reativas, e de Mn (4.5-9.0 kDa) dada a observada tendência de ciclização associada a concentrações baixas de monómero. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA aos polímeros em causa confirmou o seu caráter reversível, ou seja, a possibilidade de promover, em condições controladas, a despolimerização com recuperação dos monómeros de partida. Esta particularidade abre caminhos para materiais macromoleculares originais com aplicações promissoras tais como auto-reparação e reciclabilidade. Em terceiro lugar, sintetizaram-se polímeros não-lineares termo-reversíveis a partir de derivados do óleo de ricínio (Capítulo V). Para tal foram preparados monómeros trifuncionais e posteriormente polimerizados através da reação de DA entre os grupos reativos complementares furano/maleimida. Foram consideradas três abordagens distintas para preparar estes polímeros não-lineares, nomeadamente através da utilização de (i) um monómero bisfurânico em combinação com uma trismaleimida (sistema A2+B3) e (ii) um monómero trisfurânico em conjunto com uma bismaleimida (sistema A3+B2) que originaram materiais ramificados ou reticulados, e ainda (iii) a utilização de monómeros assimetricamente substituídos do tipo A2B ou AB2 capazes de originar estruturas macromoleculares hiper-ramificadas. Todos os sistemas apresentaram valores de Tg perto de 0 °C, o que era de esperar para estes materiais não-lineares. A aplicação da reação de retro-DA comprovou mais uma vez o caráter termo-reversível das polimerizações em causa. Em quarto lugar e último lugar, foram preparados copolímeros de acetato de vinilo (VAc) com monómeros derivados de óleo de girassol (Capítulo VI). Ésteres vinílicos de ácidos gordos (FAVE) foram sintetizados por transvinilação dos ácidos oleico e linoleico com VAc catalisada por um complexo de irídio. Os monómeros vinílicos preparados foram caracterizados e posteriormente homopolimerizados e copolimerizados com VAc através do uso dos grupos vinílicos terminais como função inicial de polimerização. A variação do tipo e quantidade de monómero FAVE e da quantidade de iniciador radicalar originou copolímeros de VAc com valores de Mn na gama de 1.2-3.0 kDa e valores de Tg de -5 a 16 °C. Os copolímeros foram avaliados em testes de cura oxidativa através das insaturações nas suas cadeias alifáticas para formar materiais reticulados, e os resultados sugerem que eles podem ser sistemas efetivos de cura para aplicações como tintas, vernizes e outros tipos de revestimento. Todos os materiais poliméricos preparados ao longo deste trabalho constituem contribuições atrativas para a área dos polímeros oriundos de recursos renováveis e representam uma prova indiscutível de que os óleos vegetais são percursores promissores de materiais macromoleculares com potenciais aplicações.

Religion and returns in Europe

Drawing on social identity and social impact theory, this paper is the first to investigate the impact of religious preferences on share prices and expected returns at the country level. Using data from 12 European countries, our findings suggest that religion has a significant effect on the share price of companies whose activities are considered unethical, i.e., tobacco manufacturers and alcohol producers. The share price of these companies (called sin stocks) is depressed when they are located in a predominantly Protestant environment (relative to a Catholic environment). With investors in Protestant countries being more sin averse than in Catholic countries, they insist upon higher expected returns on sin stocks. Conversely, religious preferences do not have the same impact on the performance of other companies, e.g. socially responsible companies. Our results are robust to various methodologies and controlling for several firm-specific, industry-specific and country-specific characteristics.

Three essays on economics of predictability of stock returns

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

The Impact of a Corporate Name Change on Stock Price and Trading Volume of Canadian Companies

This thesis examines the impact of a corporate name change on stock price and trading volume of Canadian companies around the announcement date, the approval date, and the adoption date over the time period from 1997 to 2011. Name changes are classified into six categories: major and minor, structural and pure, diversified and focused, accompanied with a change in ticker symbol and without a change in ticker symbol, “Gold” name addition and deletion, and different reasons for name changes (e.g., merger and acquisition, change of structure, change of strategy, and better image). The thesis uses the standard event study methodology to perform abnormal return and trading volume analyses. In addition, regression analysis is employed to examine which type of a name change has the largest impact on cumulative abnormal returns. Sample stocks exhibit a significant positive abnormal return one-day prior to the approval day and one day after the adoption date. Around the approval date we observe significant abnormal returns for stocks with a structural name change. On the day after the adoption date we document abnormal returns for stocks with major, minor, structural, pure, focused, and ticker symbol name changes. If a merger or acquisition is the reason for a name change, companies tend to experience a significant positive abnormal return one-day before the approval date and on the adoption date. If a change of structure is the reason for a name change, companies exhibit a significant positive abnormal return on the approval date and a significant negative abnormal return on the adoption date. In case of a change of strategy as the reason for a name change, companies show a significant negative abnormal return around the approval date and a significant positive abnormal return around the adoption date.

The Alberta Dilemma: Optimal Sharing of a Water Resource by an Agricultural and an Oil Sector

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the optimal time paths of production and water usage by an agricultural and an oil sector that have to share a limited water resource. We show that for any given water stock, if the oil stock is sufficiently large, it will become optimal to have a phase during which the agricultural sector is inactive. This may mean having an initial phase during which the two sectors are active, then a phase during which the water is reserved for the oil sector and the agricultural sector is inactive, followed by a phase during which both sectors are active again. The agricultural sector will always be active in the end as the oil stock is depleted and the demand for water from the oil sector decreases. In the case where agriculture is not constrained by the given natural inflow of water once there is no more oil, we show that oil extraction will always end with a phase during which oil production follows a pure Hotelling path, with the implicit price of oil net of extraction cost growing at the rate of interest. If the natural inflow of water does constitute a constraint for agriculture, then oil production never follows a pure Hotelling path, because its full marginal cost must always reflect not only the imputed rent on the finite oil stock, but also the positive opportunity cost of water.

Domestic policy responses to the food price crisis: The case of Bolivia

In face of the global food crisis of 2007-2008, severe concerns arose about how developing countries would be affected by the extreme short-term fluctuations in international commodity prices. We examine the effects of the crisis on Bolivia, one of the poorest countries of the Americas. We focus on the effectiveness of the domestic policy interventions in preventing spillovers of the development of international food prices to domestic markets. Using a cointegration model, we study price interdependencies of wheat flour, sunflower oil and poultry. The analysis suggests that the policy measures taken had little effect on food security during the food crisis. Throughout the entire period, perfect price transmission between the Bolivian poultry and sunflower oil markets and the respective international reference markets existed. Bolivian prices were determined by international prices and the policy interventions in the markets of these two commodities were not found to have had an effect. The government's large-scale wheat flour imports did not shield Bolivian consumers from the shocks of international prices.