People's war under modern conditions : an investigation into Chinese defence strategy, 1977-2049

This thesis is an investigation of the relevance of ‘people's war’ to contemporary Chinese defence policy. This loose concept has been eroded by 'modernity’, but a guerilla-based defence remains the essential theme. Prior to China's acquisition of nuclear weapons, people's war was the sole element of the state's deterrent policy, aiming to swamp an invader with China's numerical strength. In the 1980s and beyond people's war finds effectiveness through a combination of materiel of middle range technology and the traditional usage of massive manpower. People's war under modern conditions remains essentially defensive, but now incorporates 'active defence’ with accent on greater mobility. However, the central thesis of this work relates to how the traditional strategy may influence nuclear doctrine. This thesis proposes that China could abandon long-range ballistic missiles and adopt a new concept in nuclear strategy: that of, Guerilla Nuclear Warfare. Trained in guerilla tactics and equipped with battlefield nuclear weapons, this would represent the logical extension of China's people's war strategy to the new nuclear conditions associated with superpower research into space-based ballistic missile defences and which, in full deployment, could nullify a Chinese nuclear deterrent based only on 'mid-tech' delivery systems. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare, as a strategy, would involve the irregular use of locally held and controlled tactical nuclear weapons, but it would also be a method of circumventing the proposed Soviet missile defence shield by not challenging it. Guerilla Nuclear Warfare does not exist in the late 1980s, but evidence exists to suggest its development. It cannot yet be proven as the new direction but China's strategic circumstances add weight to available indications: unless the Strategic Defence programs of the established superpowers are arrested then it appears the sole option available to the Chinese for the maintenance of a nuclear deterrent in the early part of the 21st Century.

Drawing lines in the sea : the laws that govern traffic on the world’s oceans can be as difficult to shape as water

Since World War II, however, the term has increasingly referred to law enforcement operations, as a means to enforce trade sanctions, to prevent the movement of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), and particularly in the Caribbean Sea, to prevent the smuggling of illicit drugs. Such ambiguity should allow flexibility when deciding whom should be targeted, as well as allowing states with veto powers in the UN Security Council, which may legitimately ship nuclear weapons and materials, to avoid being targeted as long as they do not export WMDs to rogue states or non-state groups or individuals.2 The ISPS Code was created under the auspices of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and is part of the 1974 Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS) concerning the safety of merchant ships.

Mark Oliphant’s adventures in atomic wonderland

Australian physicist Mark Oliphant came to hold two oppositional views, both pro and anti nuclear weapons research. This, together with the dimensions of his ‘larger than life’ personality, impacted on his scientific reputation in the fall-out of Australia’s ‘McCarthyism’. Despite his bullying the Americans into funding the A-Bomb project, the atomic juggernaut unleashed on the world caused Oliphant to rethink his role as a scientist. Oliphant clashed with American hegemony and the Menzies Government’s duplication of the ‘Reds under the Bed’ paranoia in Australia in the 1950s. His outspokenness on the danger of nuclear proliferation found him out of step with the changed political climate of the Cold War. Drawing on neglected archival material and using a Brechtian theatrical mode, my play Ion Man’s Adventures in Atomic Wonderland investigates the tragic dimensions of a man who never fully understood, as Thomas Kuhn explained (The Structure of Scientific Revolutions), that scientific research is determined as much by politics and ideology as by the desire to understand the world.

Development and piloting of an exposure database and surveillance system for DOE cleanup operations

An industrial hygiene exposure database and surveillance system was developed in partnership between National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH)-funded independent investigators and practicing industrial hygienists at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS) in Golden, Colo. RFETS is a former U.S. Department of Energy nuclear weapons plant that is now in cleanup phase. This project is presented as a case study in the development of an exposure database and surveillance system in terms that are generalizable to most other industries and work contexts. Steps include gaining organizational support; defining system purpose and scope; defining database elements and coding; planning practical and efficient analysis strategies; incorporating reporting capabilities; and anticipating communication strategies that maximize the probability that surveillance findings will feed back to preventive applications. For each of these topics, the authors describe both general considerations as well as the specific choices made for this system. An important feature of the system is a two-tier task-coding scheme comprising 33 categories of task groups. Examples of grouped analyses of exposure data captured during the system pilot period demonstrate applications to exposure control, medical surveillance, and other preventive measures. Reprinted by permission of the publisher.

Development of an exposure database and surveillance system for use by practicing OSH professionals

This report summarizes the development of an occupational exposure database and surveillance system for use by health and safety professionals at Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (RFETS), a former nuclear weapons production facility. The site itself is currently in the cleanup stage with work expected to continue into 2006. The system was developed with the intent of helping health and safety personnel not only to manage and analyze exposure monitoring data, but also to identify exposure determinants during the highly variable cleanup work. Utilizing a series of focused meetings with health and safety personnel from two of the major contractors at RFETS, core data elements were established. These data elements were selected based on their utility for analysis and identification of exposure determinants. A task-based coding scheme was employed to better define the highly variable work. The coding scheme consisted of a two-tiered hierarchical list with a total of 34 possible combinations of work type and task. The data elements were incorporated into a Microsoft Access database with built-in data entry features to both promote consistency and limit entry choices to enable stratified analyses. In designing the system, emphasis was placed on the ability of end users to perform complex analyses and multiparameter queries to identify trends in their exposure data. A very flexible and user-friendly report generator was built into the system. This report generator allowed users to perform multiparameter queries using an intuitive system with very little training. In addition, a number of automated graphical analyses were built into the system, including ex posure levels by any combination of building, date, employee, job classification, type of contaminant, work type or task, exposure levels over time, exposure levels relative to the permissible exposure limit (PELS), and distributions of exposure levels. Both of these interfaces, allow the user to ''drill down'' or gradually narrow query criteria to identify specific exposure determinants. A number of other industrial hygiene processes were automated by the use of this database. Exposure calculations were coded into the system to allow automatic calculation of time-weighted averages and sample volumes. In addition, a table containing all the PELs and other relevant occupational exposure limits was built into the system to allow automatic comparisons with the current standards. Finally, the process of generating reports for employee notification was automated. The implementation of this system demonstrates that an integrated database system can save time for a practicing hygienist as well as provide useful and more importantly, timely information to guide primary prevention efforts.

India-Pakistan relations: Legalization and agreement design

This article examines agreements between India and Pakistan to determine if there are design features that played a role in their success or failure. I show that India and Pakistan share attributes that are particularly well suited for a positive correlation between increased legalization and compliance, that the law plays a role in strengthening norms, and that legalizing commitments can create compliance constituencies that act as constraining influences on governments.

Política externa brasileira e o Tratado de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares (TNP): da resistência à adesão

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Brasil - Argentina e o Sistema Regional de Salvaguardas Nucleares

In 2011, the Brazilian-Argentine Agency for Accounting and Control of Nuclear Materials (ABACC), created to administer the Common System of Accounting and Control of Nuclear Material (CSAC) has completed twenty years of existence. ABACC and the Quadripartite Agreement established with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are a special system of safeguards that presents itself as an important example of regional contribution to global nuclear proliferation. The paper presents some considerations about the process of understanding between Brazil and Argentina that resulted in the creation of ABACC, indicates succinctly some theoretical explanations of international relations for this process and, from some features of the Agency, relates how the ABACC experience could support nuclear weapons free zones.

Energias alternativas: potencialidades para as regiões de maior demanda energética no Brasil

Since the beginning of life in society, the human being has sought sources of energy that can be used continuously, or stored to be consumed in times of need. The various energy generation processes has enabled the human race for the implementation of many activities ranging from food preparation, handling of large industries and even the possibility of total annihilation by the availability of powerful nuclear weapons. In Brazil, whereupon the various deleterious aspects and especially the finite resources used on a large scale for the energy conservation, there is a huge devotion of society referred to the prospects for alternatives to the use of energy in local, regional and global, but overall, as it wouldn’t be different, the main factors in this scenario are economic. The fact that the unused potential of a region in the use of alternative sources of energy leads to a larger socio-environmental prejudice generalized to all. The purpose of this project is targeted for a comprehensive, systemic and integrated discussion about some of the main alternative energy sources, associated with technical procedures related to them, to contribute to a better and effective use of natural resources available in each region of the country, in order to minimize the impacts on the environment in which they are inserted.

O Brasil e o regime Internacional de Não-Proliferação de Armas Nucleares: adesão resistida na inserção brasileira

Pós-graduação em Relações Internacionais (UNESP - UNICAMP - PUC-SP) - FFC

La Pace Calda. La nascita del movimento antinucleare negli Stati Uniti e in Gran Bretagna, 1957-1963

The aim of this proposal is to offer an alternative perspective on the study of Cold War, since insufficient attention is usually paid to those organizations that mobilized against the development and proliferation of nuclear weapons. The antinuclear movement began to mobilize between the 1950s and the 1960s, when it finally gained the attention of public opinion, and helped to build a sort of global conscience about nuclear bombs. This was due to the activism of a significant part of the international scientific community, which offered powerful intellectual and political legitimization to the struggle, and to the combined actions of the scientific and organized protests. This antinuclear conscience is something we usually tend to consider as a fait accompli in contemporary world, but the question is to show its roots, and the way it influenced statesmen and political choices during the period of nuclear confrontation of the early Cold War. To understand what this conscience could be and how it should be defined, we have to look at the very meaning of the nuclear weapons that has deeply modified the sense of war. Nuclear weapons seemed to be able to destroy human beings everywhere with no realistic forms of control of the damages they could set off, and they represented the last resource in the wide range of means of mass destruction. Even if we tend to consider this idea fully rational and incontrovertible, it was not immediately born with the birth of nuclear weapons themselves. Or, better, not everyone in the world did immediately share it. Due to the particular climate of Cold War confrontation, deeply influenced by the persistence of realistic paradigms in international relations, British and U.S. governments looked at nuclear weapons simply as «a bullet». From the Trinity Test to the signature of the Limited Test Ban Treaty in 1963, many things happened that helped to shift this view upon nuclear weapons. First of all, more than ten years of scientific protests provided a more concerned knowledge about consequences of nuclear tests and about the use of nuclear weapons. Many scientists devoted their social activities to inform public opinion and policy-makers about the real significance of the power of the atom and the related danger for human beings. Secondly, some public figures, as physicists, philosophers, biologists, chemists, and so on, appealed directly to the human community to «leave the folly and face reality», publicly sponsoring the antinuclear conscience. Then, several organizations leaded by political, religious or radical individuals gave to this protests a formal structure. The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament in Great Britain, as well as the National Committee for a Sane Nuclear Policy in the U.S., represented the voice of the masses against the attempts of governments to present nuclear arsenals as a fundamental part of the international equilibrium. Therefore, the antinuclear conscience could be defined as an opposite feeling to the development and the use of nuclear weapons, able to create a political issue oriented to the influence of military and foreign policies. Only taking into consideration the strength of this pressure, it seems possible to understand not only the beginning of nuclear negotiations, but also the reasons that permitted Cold War to remain cold.

Spektroskopie und Ultraspurenanalyse von Plutonium mittels Resonanzionisations-Massenspektrometrie

Die Resonanzionisations-Massenspektrometrie (RIMS) ist sowohl für spektroskopische Untersuchungen seltener Isotope als auch für den Ultraspurennachweis langlebiger radioaktiver Elemente einsetzbar. Durch die mehrstufige resonante Anregung atomarer Energieniveaus mit anschließender Ionisation mit Laserlicht wird eine sehr hohe Elementselektivität und Ionisationseffizienz erreicht. Der nachfolgende massenselektive Ionennachweis liefert eine gute Isotopenselektivität zusammen mit einer effektiven Untergrundunterdrückung. Ein wichtiger Bestandteil der RIMS-Apparatur ist ein zuverlässig arbeitendes, leistungsstarkes Lasersystem für die Resonanzionisation. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein von einem hochrepetierenden Nd:YAG-Laser gepumptes, aus drei Titan-Saphir-Lasern bestehendes System fertig aufgebaut und in den Routinebetrieb überführt. Die Titan-Saphir-Laser liefern im Durchstimmbereich von 730 - 880 nm eine mittlere Leistung von bis zu 3 W pro Laser bei einer Linienbreite von 2 - 3 GHz. Sie lassen sich computergesteuert in ihren Wellenlängen durchstimmen. Die mittels Resonanzionisation erzeugten Ionen werden dann in einem Flugzeit-Massenspektrometer entsprechend ihrer Masse aufgetrennt und mit einem Kanalplattendetektor nachgewiesen.Als Voraussetzung für die isotopenselektive Ultraspurenanalyse von Plutonium wurden mit diesem Lasersystem die Isotopieverschiebungen eines effizienten, dreistufigen Anregungsschema für Plutonium bestimmt. Die Laserleistungen reichen zur vielfachen Sättigung der ersten beiden Anregungsschritte und zur zweifachen Sättigung des dritten Anregungsschritts aus.Außerdem wurden die Ionisationsenergien von Pu-239 und Pu-244 zur Untersuchung ihrer Isotopenabhängigkeit bestimmt. Die beiden Ionisationsenergien sind im Rahmen der erreichten Genauigkeit bei einem Meßwert von IP239-IP244 = 0,24(82) cm^-1 gleich.Die Nachweiseffizienz der RIMS-Apparatur für Plutonium wurde in Effizienzmessungen zu 10^-5 bestimmt. Durch die gute Untergrundunterdrückung ergab sich daraus eine Nachweisgrenze von 10^6 Atomen bei der Messung eines Plutoniumisotops. Die Bestimmung der Isotopenverhältnisse von Proben mit einer zertifizierten Isotopenzusammensetzung lieferte eine gute Übereinstimmung der Meßwerte mit den angegebenen Zusammensetzungen.Die RIMS-Apparatur wurde zur Bestimmung des Gehalts und der Isotopenzusammensetzung von Plutonium in Meerwasser- und Staubproben eingesetzt.Auf Grund der Isotopenzusammensetzung konnte gezeigt werden, daß das Plutonium bei den meisten Proben aus dem Fallout von oberirdischen Kernwaffentests stammte. Des weiteren wurde Plutonium in Urinproben bestimmt. Die Nachweisgrenzen lagen bei diesen Umweltproben bei 10^6 bis 10^7 Atomen Plutonium und damit um zwei Größenordnungen niedriger als die Nachweisgrenze für Pu-239 bei der alpha-Spektroskopie, der Standardmethode für den Plutoniumnachweis.

1963-1968. Dall'avvento dell'amministrazione di Lyndon B. Johnson al Trattato di Non-Proliferazione. gli Stati Uniti, la Francia, la NATO e l'Europa agli esordi della distensione. Storia di una "non-crisi" transatlantica e della riorganizzazione dell'Alleanza.

The aim of this proposal is to explain the paradigm of the American foreign policy during the Johnson Administration, especially toward Europe, within the NATO framework, and toward URSS, in the context of the détente, just emerged during the decade of the sixties. During that period, after the passing of the J. F. Kennedy, President L. B. Johnson inherited a complex and very high-powered world politics, which wanted to get a new phase off the ground in the transatlantic relations and share the burden of the Cold war with a refractory Europe. Known as the grand design, it was a policy that needed the support of the allies and a clear purpose which appealed to the Europeans. At first, President Johnson detected in the problem of the nuclear sharing the good deal to make with the NATO allies. At the same time, he understood that the United States needed to reassert their leadeship within the new stage of relations with the Soviet Union. Soon, the “transatlantic bargain” became something not so easy to dealt with. The Federal Germany wanted to say a word in the nuclear affairs and, why not, put the finger on the trigger of the atlantic nuclear weapons. URSS, on the other hand, wanted to keep Germany down. The other allies did not want to share the onus of the defense of Europe, at most the responsability for the use of the weapons and, at least, to participate in the decision-making process. France, which wanted to detach herself from the policy of the United States and regained a world role, added difficulties to the manage of this course of action. Through the years of the Johnson’s office, the divergences of the policies placed by his advisers to gain the goal put the American foreign policy in deep water. The withdrawal of France from the organization but not from the Alliance, give Washington a chance to carry out his goal. The development of a clear-cut disarm policy leaded the Johnson’s administration to the core of the matter. The Non-proliferation Treaty signed in 1968, solved in a business-like fashion the problem with the allies. The question of nuclear sharing faded away with the acceptance of more deep consultative role in the nuclear affairs by the allies, the burden for the defense of Europe became more bearable through the offset agreement with the FRG and a new doctrine, the flexible response, put an end, at least formally, to the taboo of the nuclear age. The Johnson’s grand design proved to be different from the Kennedy’s one, but all things considered, it was more workable. The unpredictable result was a real détente with the Soviet Union, which, we can say, was a merit of President Johnson.

(Table 1) Activity of strontium-90 in waters of the Northeast Atlantic at the end of 1965 and the beginning of 1966

In 1965-1966 R/V Mikhail Lomonosov conducted studies on concentrations of artificial radioactive products in the Northeast Atlantic. Concentration of strontium-90 at the end of 1965 and the beginning of 1966 was higher than the average level for the ocean and reached about 53 dpm/100 l in the surface layer. The most intense transport of artificial radioactive products out of the Irish Sea was detected in the northern and northeastern directions along the Hebrides and the Orkneys. In addition to radioactive fission products from nuclear weapons tests, radioactive wastes of atomic industrial facilities discharged into the ocean are an important source of radioactive contamination of some regions of the world ocean.

Mg/Ca-temperature proxy in benthic foraminifera from the Florida Strait

Over the past decade, the ratio of Mg to Ca in foraminiferal tests has emerged as a valuable paleotemperature proxy. However, large uncertainties remain in the relationships between benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca and temperature. Mg/Ca was measured in benthic foraminifera from 31 high-quality multicore tops collected in the Florida Straits, spanning a temperature range of 5.8° to 18.6°C. New calibrations are presented for Uvigerina peregrina, Planulina ariminensis, Planulina foveolata, and Hoeglundina elegans. The Mg/Ca values and temperature sensitivities vary among species, but all species exhibit a positive correlation that decreases in slope at higher temperatures. The decrease in the sensitivity of Mg/Ca to temperature may potentially be explained by Mg/Ca suppression at high carbonate ion concentrations. It is suggested that a carbonate ion influence on Mg/Ca may be adjusted for by dividing Mg/Ca by Li/Ca. The Mg/Li ratio displays stronger correlations to temperature, with up to 90% of variance explained, than Mg/Ca alone. These new calibrations are tested on several Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) samples from the Florida Straits. LGM temperatures reconstructed from Mg/Ca and Mg/Li are generally more scattered than core top measurements and may be contaminated by high-Mg overgrowths. The potential for Mg/Ca and Mg/Li as temperature proxies warrants further testing.