An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Data-driven topo-climatic mapping with machine learning methods

Automatic environmental monitoring networks enforced by wireless communication technologies provide large and ever increasing volumes of data nowadays. The use of this information in natural hazard research is an important issue. Particularly useful for risk assessment and decision making are the spatial maps of hazard-related parameters produced from point observations and available auxiliary information. The purpose of this article is to present and explore the appropriate tools to process large amounts of available data and produce predictions at fine spatial scales. These are the algorithms of machine learning, which are aimed at non-parametric robust modelling of non-linear dependencies from empirical data. The computational efficiency of the data-driven methods allows producing the prediction maps in real time which makes them superior to physical models for the operational use in risk assessment and mitigation. Particularly, this situation encounters in spatial prediction of climatic variables (topo-climatic mapping). In complex topographies of the mountainous regions, the meteorological processes are highly influenced by the relief. The article shows how these relations, possibly regionalized and non-linear, can be modelled from data using the information from digital elevation models. The particular illustration of the developed methodology concerns the mapping of temperatures (including the situations of Föhn and temperature inversion) given the measurements taken from the Swiss meteorological monitoring network. The range of the methods used in the study includes data-driven feature selection, support vector algorithms and artificial neural networks.

Recent developments in statistical methods for detecting genetic loci affecting phenotypic variability

A number of recent works have introduced statistical methods for detecting genetic loci that affect phenotypic variability, which we refer to as variability-controlling quantitative trait loci (vQTL). These are genetic variants whose allelic state predicts how much phenotype values will vary about their expected means. Such loci are of great potential interest in both human and non-human genetic studies, one reason being that a detected vQTL could represent a previously undetected interaction with other genes or environmental factors. The simultaneous publication of these new methods in different journals has in many cases precluded opportunity for comparison. We survey some of these methods, the respective trade-offs they imply, and the connections between them. The methods fall into three main groups: classical non-parametric, fully parametric, and semi-parametric two-stage approximations. Choosing between alternatives involves balancing the need for robustness, flexibility, and speed. For each method, we identify important assumptions and limitations, including those of practical importance, such as their scope for including covariates and random effects. We show in simulations that both parametric methods and their semi-parametric approximations can give elevated false positive rates when they ignore mean-variance relationships intrinsic to the data generation process. We conclude that choice of method depends on the trait distribution, the need to include non-genetic covariates, and the population size and structure, coupled with a critical evaluation of how these fit with the assumptions of the statistical model.

Evaluation of two alternative methods for disinfection of toothbrushes and tongue scrapers

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the effectiveness of two alternatives methods for the disinfection of oral cleaning devices. Methods: One type of toothbrush and two types of tongue scrapers (steel and plastic) were tested in this study. Sixteen specimens of each group were cut with standardized dimensions, contaminated separately with Candida albicans, Streptococcus mutans and Staphylococcus aureus and incubated for 24 h. After this, oral cleaning devices were washed in saline solution to remove non-adhered cells and divided into two groups (n = 8), one irradiated in microwave and other immersed in 3.78% sodium perborate solution, and evaluated for microbial recovery. The values of cfu of each group of microorganism after disinfection were compared by Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn non-parametric test, considering 95% of confidence. Results: The toothbrush harboured a significant larger number of viable organisms than the tongue scrapers. The steel tongue scraper was less susceptible to adhesion of the three oral microorganisms. The time required to inactivate all contaminating microorganisms using microwave oven was 1 min and, for the immersion in 3.78% sodium perborate solution, was 2 and 3 h, respectively, for C. albicans and S. mutans/S. aureus. Conclusion: Microwave irradiation proved to be an effective alternative method to the disinfection of tongue cleaners and toothbrushes.

Evaluating different methods of microarray data normalization

Abstract Background With the development of DNA hybridization microarray technologies, nowadays it is possible to simultaneously assess the expression levels of thousands to tens of thousands of genes. Quantitative comparison of microarrays uncovers distinct patterns of gene expression, which define different cellular phenotypes or cellular responses to drugs. Due to technical biases, normalization of the intensity levels is a pre-requisite to performing further statistical analyses. Therefore, choosing a suitable approach for normalization can be critical, deserving judicious consideration. Results Here, we considered three commonly used normalization approaches, namely: Loess, Splines and Wavelets, and two non-parametric regression methods, which have yet to be used for normalization, namely, the Kernel smoothing and Support Vector Regression. The results obtained were compared using artificial microarray data and benchmark studies. The results indicate that the Support Vector Regression is the most robust to outliers and that Kernel is the worst normalization technique, while no practical differences were observed between Loess, Splines and Wavelets. Conclusion In face of our results, the Support Vector Regression is favored for microarray normalization due to its superiority when compared to the other methods for its robustness in estimating the normalization curve.

Non-Markovian stochastic processes and their applications: from anomalous diffusion to time series analysis

This work provides a forward step in the study and comprehension of the relationships between stochastic processes and a certain class of integral-partial differential equation, which can be used in order to model anomalous diffusion and transport in statistical physics. In the first part, we brought the reader through the fundamental notions of probability and stochastic processes, stochastic integration and stochastic differential equations as well. In particular, within the study of H-sssi processes, we focused on fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its discrete-time increment process, the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn), which provide examples of non-Markovian Gaussian processes. The fGn, together with stationary FARIMA processes, is widely used in the modeling and estimation of long-memory, or long-range dependence (LRD). Time series manifesting long-range dependence, are often observed in nature especially in physics, meteorology, climatology, but also in hydrology, geophysics, economy and many others. We deepely studied LRD, giving many real data examples, providing statistical analysis and introducing parametric methods of estimation. Then, we introduced the theory of fractional integrals and derivatives, which indeed turns out to be very appropriate for studying and modeling systems with long-memory properties. After having introduced the basics concepts, we provided many examples and applications. For instance, we investigated the relaxation equation with distributed order time-fractional derivatives, which describes models characterized by a strong memory component and can be used to model relaxation in complex systems, which deviates from the classical exponential Debye pattern. Then, we focused in the study of generalizations of the standard diffusion equation, by passing through the preliminary study of the fractional forward drift equation. Such generalizations have been obtained by using fractional integrals and derivatives of distributed orders. In order to find a connection between the anomalous diffusion described by these equations and the long-range dependence, we introduced and studied the generalized grey Brownian motion (ggBm), which is actually a parametric class of H-sssi processes, which have indeed marginal probability density function evolving in time according to a partial integro-differential equation of fractional type. The ggBm is of course Non-Markovian. All around the work, we have remarked many times that, starting from a master equation of a probability density function f(x,t), it is always possible to define an equivalence class of stochastic processes with the same marginal density function f(x,t). All these processes provide suitable stochastic models for the starting equation. Studying the ggBm, we just focused on a subclass made up of processes with stationary increments. The ggBm has been defined canonically in the so called grey noise space. However, we have been able to provide a characterization notwithstanding the underline probability space. We also pointed out that that the generalized grey Brownian motion is a direct generalization of a Gaussian process and in particular it generalizes Brownain motion and fractional Brownain motion as well. Finally, we introduced and analyzed a more general class of diffusion type equations related to certain non-Markovian stochastic processes. We started from the forward drift equation, which have been made non-local in time by the introduction of a suitable chosen memory kernel K(t). The resulting non-Markovian equation has been interpreted in a natural way as the evolution equation of the marginal density function of a random time process l(t). We then consider the subordinated process Y(t)=X(l(t)) where X(t) is a Markovian diffusion. The corresponding time-evolution of the marginal density function of Y(t) is governed by a non-Markovian Fokker-Planck equation which involves the same memory kernel K(t). We developed several applications and derived the exact solutions. Moreover, we considered different stochastic models for the given equations, providing path simulations.

Mechanical non-surgical treatment of peri-implantitis: a single-blinded randomized longitudinal clinical study. II. Microbiological results

BACKGROUND: Peri-implantitis is common in patients with dental implants. We performed a single-blinded longitudinal randomized study to assess the effects of mechanical debridement on the peri-implant microbiota in peri-implantitis lesions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An expanded checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization assay encompassing 79 different microorganisms was used to study bacterial counts before and during 6 months following mechanical treatment of peri-implantitis in 17 cases treated with curettes and 14 cases treated with an ultrasonic device. Statistics included non-parametric tests and GLM multivariate analysis with p<0001 indicating significance and 80% power. RESULTS: At selected implant test sites, the most prevalent bacteria were: Fusobacterium nucleatum sp., Staphylococci sp., Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Helicobacter pylori, and Tannerella forsythia. 30 min. after treatment with curettes, A. actinomycetemcomitans (serotype a), Lactobacillus acidophilus, Streptococcus anginosus, and Veillonella parvula were found at lower counts (p<0.001). No such differences were found for implants treated with the ultrasonic device. Inconsistent changes occurred following the first week. No microbiological differences between baseline and 6-month samples were found for any species or between treatment study methods in peri-implantitis. CONCLUSIONS: Both methods failed to eliminate or reduce bacterial counts in peri-implantitis. No group differences were found in the ability to reduce the microbiota in peri-implantitis.

Operator variability using different polishing methods and surface geometry of a nanohybrid composite

This study evaluated the operator variability of different finishing and polishing techniques. After placing 120 composite restorations (Tetric EvoCeram) in plexiglassmolds, the surface of the specimens was roughened in a standardized manner. Twelve operators with different experience levels polished the specimens using the following finishing/polishing procedures: method 1 (40 ?m diamond [40D], 15 ?m diamond [15D], 42 ?m silicon carbide polisher [42S], 6 ?m silicon carbide polisher [6S] and Occlubrush [O]); method 2 (40D, 42S, 6S and O); method 3 (40D, 42S, 6S and PoGo); method 4 (40D, 42S and PoGo) and method 5 (40D, 42S and O). The mean surface roughness (Ra) was measured with a profilometer. Differences between the methods were analyzed with non-parametric ANOVA and pairwise Wilcoxon signed rank tests (?=0.05). All the restorations were qualitatively assessed using SEM. Methods 3 and 4 showed the best polishing results and method 5 demonstrated the poorest. Method 5 was also most dependent on the skills of the operator. Except for method 5, all of the tested procedures reached a clinically acceptable surface polish of Ra?0.2 ?m. Polishing procedures can be simplified without increasing variability between operators and without jeopardizing polishing results.

Mechanical non-surgical treatment of peri-implantitis: a double-blind randomized longitudinal clinical study. I: clinical results

BACKGROUND: Peri-implantitis is a frequent finding in patients with dental implants. The present study compared two non-surgical mechanical debridement methods of peri-implantitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Thirty-seven subjects (mean age 61.5; S.D+/-12.4), with one implant each, demonstrating peri-implantitis were randomized, and those treated either with titanium hand-instruments or with an ultrasonic device were enrolled. Data were obtained before treatment, and at 1, 3, and 6 months. Parametric and non-parametric statistics were used. RESULTS: Thirty-one subjects completed the study. The mean bone loss at implants in both groups was 1.5 mm (SD +/-1.2 mm). No group differences for plaque or gingival indices were found at any time point. Baseline and 6-month mean probing pocket depths (PPD) at implants were 5.1 and 4.9 mm (p=0.30) in both groups. Plaque scores at treated implants decreased from 73% to 53% (p<0.01). Bleeding scores also decreased (p<0.01), with no group differences. No differences in the total bacterial counts were found over time. Higher total bacterial counts were found immediately after treatment (p<0.01) and at 1 week for ultrasonic-treated implants (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: No group differences were found in the treatment outcomes. While plaque and bleeding scores improved, no effects on PPD were identified.

Evaluation of Non-Survey International IO Construction Methods with the Asian-Pacific Input-Output Table

This paper presents four non-survey methods to construct a full-information international input-output table from national IO tables and international import and export statistics, and this paper tests these four methods against the semi-survey international IO table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA, which is constructed by the Institute of Developing Economies in Japan. The tests show that the impact on the domestic flows of using self-sufficiency ratios is small, except for Singapore and Malaysia, two countries with large volumes of smuggling and transit trade. As regards the accuracy of the international flows, all methods show considerable errors, of 10%-40% for commodities and of 10%-70% for services. When more information is added, i.e. going from Method 1 to 4, the accuracy increases, except for Method 2 that generally produces larger errors than Method 1. In all, it seems doubtful whether replacing the semi-survey Asian-Pacific IO table with one of the four non-survey tables is justified, except when the semi-survey table itself is also considered to be just another estimate.

Comparative analysis of meta-analysis methods: when to use which?

Background: Several meta-analysis methods can be used to quantitatively combine the results of a group of experiments, including the weighted mean difference, statistical vote counting, the parametric response ratio and the non-parametric response ratio. The software engineering community has focused on the weighted mean difference method. However, other meta-analysis methods have distinct strengths, such as being able to be used when variances are not reported. There are as yet no guidelines to indicate which method is best for use in each case. Aim: Compile a set of rules that SE researchers can use to ascertain which aggregation method is best for use in the synthesis phase of a systematic review. Method: Monte Carlo simulation varying the number of experiments in the meta analyses, the number of subjects that they include, their variance and effect size. We empirically calculated the reliability and statistical power in each case Results: WMD is generally reliable if the variance is low, whereas its power depends on the effect size and number of subjects per meta-analysis; the reliability of RR is generally unaffected by changes in variance, but it does require more subjects than WMD to be powerful; NPRR is the most reliable method, but it is not very powerful; SVC behaves well when the effect size is moderate, but is less reliable with other effect sizes. Detailed tables of results are annexed. Conclusions: Before undertaking statistical aggregation in software engineering, it is worthwhile checking whether there is any appreciable difference in the reliability and power of the methods. If there is, software engineers should select the method that optimizes both parameters.

A Comparative Analysis of Two Slug Test Methods in Puget Lowland Glacio-Fluvial Sediments near Coupeville, WA

Two different slug test field methods are conducted in wells completed in a Puget Lowland aquifer and are examined for systematic error resulting from water column displacement techniques. Slug tests using the standard slug rod and the pneumatic method were repeated on the same wells and hydraulic conductivity estimates were calculated according to Bouwer & Rice and Hvorslev before using a non-parametric statistical test for analysis. Practical considerations of performing the tests in real life settings are also considered in the method comparison. Statistical analysis indicates that the slug rod method results in up to 90% larger hydraulic conductivity values than the pneumatic method, with at least a 95% certainty that the error is method related. This confirms the existence of a slug-rod bias in a real world scenario which has previously been demonstrated by others in synthetic aquifers. In addition to more accurate values, the pneumatic method requires less field labor, less decontamination, and provides the ability to control the magnitudes of the initial displacement, making it the superior slug test procedure.

A cautionary note on methods of comparing programmatic efficiency between two or more groups of DMUs in data envelopment analysis

In some applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) there may be doubt as to whether all the DMUs form a single group with a common efficiency distribution. The Mann-Whitney rank statistic has been used to evaluate if two groups of DMUs come from a common efficiency distribution under the assumption of them sharing a common frontier and to test if the two groups have a common frontier. These procedures have subsequently been extended using the Kruskal-Wallis rank statistic to consider more than two groups. This technical note identifies problems with the second of these applications of both the Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis rank statistics. It also considers possible alternative methods of testing if groups have a common frontier, and the difficulties of disaggregating managerial and programmatic efficiency within a non-parametric framework. © 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Data analysis methods in optometry. Part 5: correlation

1. Pearson's correlation coefficient only tests whether the data fit a linear model. With large numbers of observations, quite small values of r become significant and the X variable may only account for a minute proportion of the variance in Y. Hence, the value of r squared should always be calculated and included in a discussion of the significance of r. 2. The use of r assumes that a bivariate normal distribution is present and this assumption should be examined prior to the study. If Pearson's r is not appropriate, then a non-parametric correlation coefficient such as Spearman's rs may be used. 3. A significant correlation should not be interpreted as indicating causation especially in observational studies in which there is a high probability that the two variables are correlated because of their mutual correlations with other variables. 4. In studies of measurement error, there are problems in using r as a test of reliability and the ‘intra-class correlation coefficient’ should be used as an alternative. A correlation test provides only limited information as to the relationship between two variables. Fitting a regression line to the data using the method known as ‘least square’ provides much more information and the methods of regression and their application in optometry will be discussed in the next article.