Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Evolution of the modern Nile delta promontories: development of accretional features during shoreline retreat

The active accretional features that have developed along the modern Nile Delta promontories during shoreline retreat are analysed using topographic maps, remote imagery, ground and hydrographic surveys, together providing 15 time-slice maps (1922-2000) at Rosetta and 14 time-slice maps (1909-2000) at Damietta. Small double sandy spits developed and persisted at Rosetta between 1986 and 1991. At Damietta, a much larger single spit, 9 km long, formed approximately east of the mouth of the Damietta Nile branch between 1955 and 1972, although its source has now been depleted. Both the Rosetta and Damietta inlets are associated with submerged mouth bars that accumulated prior to the damming of the Nile, but that continue to contribute to local sedimentation problems, particularly at Rosetta. The development of the active accretional features along the Nile promontories reflects a combination of factors including sediment availability, transport pathways from source areas, a decrease in the magnitude of Nile flood discharges, as well as the impact of protective structures at the river mouths.

The Gift of the Nile: Hellenizing Egypt from Aeschylus to Alexander

The Egyptians mesmerized the ancient Greeks for scores of years. The Greek literature and art of the classical period are especially thick with representations of Egypt and Egyptians. Yet despite numerous firsthand contacts with Egypt, Greek writers constructed their own Egypt, one that differed in significant ways from actual Egyptian history, society, and culture. Informed by recent work on orientalism and colonialism, this book unravels the significance of these misrepresentations of Egypt in the Greek cultural imagination in the fifth and fourth centuries B.C.E. Looking in particular at issues of identity, otherness, and cultural anxiety, Phiroze Vasunia shows how Greek authors constructed an image of Egypt that reflected their own attitudes and prejudices about Greece itself. He focuses his discussion on Aeschylus Suppliants; Book 2 of Herodotus; Euripides' Helen; Plato's Phaedrus, Timaeus, and Critias; and Isocrates' Busiris. Reconstructing the history of the bias that informed these writings, Vasunia shows that Egypt in these works was shaped in relation to Greek institutions, values, and ideas on such subjects as gender and sexuality, death, writing, and political and ethnic identity. This study traces the tendentiousness of Greek representations by introducing comparative Egyptian material, thus interrogating the Greek texts and authors from a cross-cultural perspective. A final chapter also considers the invasion of Egypt by Alexander the Great and shows how he exploited and revised the discursive tradition in his conquest of the country. Firmly and knowledgeably rooted in classical studies and the ancient sources, this study takes a broad look at the issue of cross-cultural exchange in antiquity by framing it within the perspective of contemporary cultural studies. In addition, this provocative and original work shows how Greek writers made possible literary Europe's most persistent and adaptable obsession: the barbarian.

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes

Aluminum as an endocrine disruptor in female Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus)

The effects of aluminum on plasma ion, lipid, protein and steroid hormone concentration were evaluated in Oreochromis niloticus broodstock females. Lipid and protein concentrations from the gonads and liver were also measured Experiments were performed at neutral and acidic water pH Four groups of fish were tested for 96 h. 1) control conditions at neutral water pH, 2) control conditions at acidic water pH (CTR-Ac). 3) aluminum at neutral water pH (Al-N), and 4) aluminum at acidic water pH (Al-Ac) Aluminum and acidic water pH exposure caused no ionoregulatory disturbances Total lipid concentration increased in the mature gonads and decreased in the liver, suggesting an acceleration of lipid mobilization to the ovaries in animals exposed to aluminum However, a decreased protein concentration in ovaries was also observed Exposure of control fish to acidic water pH caused an increased concentration of plasma 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone However, females exposed to aluminum at acidic water pH showed a decreased of plasma 17 alpha-hydroxyprogesterone and cortisol. No differences in plasma 17 beta-estradiol were observed The physiological mechanisms underlying the disturbances observed are discussed focusing on reproduction We suggest that aluminum can be considered an endocrine disrupting compound in mature O. mloticus females (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved

Trace metal concentrations in Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis Niloticus) in three catchments, Sri Lanka

Samples of the muscle and liver of the Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) were obtained from a single reservoir in each of three Sri Lankan catchments (Kaudulla, Rajanganaya, and Udawalawe reservoirs in the Mahaweli, Kala Oya, and Walawe Ganga river basins, respectively) in 2002. The concentrations of 12 elements were consistently detected in the tilapia muscle and liver (Ca, Cd, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, Sr and Zn). However, a three factorial principal components analysis suggested that there were no differences in the metal profiles (range of elements and concentration) of the fish obtained from any of the three reservoirs, although the chemistries of each tissue (muscle and liver) were different. Metal concentrations were below WHO and Food Standards Australia and New Zealand guideline values, and substantial quantities of tilapia would need to be consumed each week on a regular basis to exceed intake limits (e.g. more than 1.5 kg to exceed intake lits for Cu), suggesting consumption of tilapia from these reservoirs poses little risk to human health.

Genetic changes, intra- and inter-specific introgression in farmed Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) in Thailand

Fourteen microsatellite loci were used to examine genetic changes of four strains in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) derived from genetically improved farmed tilapia (GIFT) and two strains derived from a local Chitralada strain of Nile tilapia in Thailand. Reference populations, including the ninth generation of GIFT strain, the original Chitralada strain, two conspecific reference populations from Ivory Coast and Uganda, and one population each of Oreochromis mossambicus and Oreochromis aureus, were also examined. Despite minor genetic changes, three of the four GIFT-derived populations retained their purity as GIFT while genetic variation did not decline. One of the GIFT-derived populations showed high levels of introgression from the Chitralada strain. Likewise, introgression from GIFT to the Chitralada-derived populations was seen. Inter-specific introgression from O. mossambicus was observed in the GIFT reference population and one of the Chitralada-derived strains. Introgression from O. aureus was detected in one of the GIFT-derived populations with a history of intensive inter-strain crossing. However, the introgression resulted in elevated genetic variation relative to the Chitralada original strains.

Sex reversal in Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus Linnaeus) by androgen immersion

Two experiments were conducted to investigate the efficacy of three androgens applied through immersion treatments on the sex ratio of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.) fry. In experiment 1, 14 days post-hatching (DPH) larvae were exposed to a single immersion treatment in 17α-methyltestosterone (MT), 17α-methyldihydrotestosterone (MDHT) or 17α-ethynyltestosterone (ET) at 200, 600 and 1800 μg L⁻¹ over 4 h (130 larvae per treatment). In experiment 2, Nile tilapia larvae were exposed to the higher androgen concentration (1800 μg L⁻¹) applied as either a single immersion (14 DPH) or double immersion (10 and 14 DPH) over 4 h (125 larvae per treatment). Change in sex proportion within each experiment as well as between experiments was analysed by the chi-square test. In experiment 1, MT, MDHT and ET were equally effective in significantly increasing the proportion of males when applied at 1800 μg L⁻¹ (86.0%, 90.0% and 86.7% respectively). At 200 μg L⁻¹ none of the androgens altered sex ratio. At 600 μg L⁻¹, only MDHT slightly, but significantly skewed the sex ratio towards males (73.0%). In experiment 2, a single immersion treatment at 14 DPH (1800 μg L⁻¹) significantly increased the proportion of males, but at this time the response was significantly hormone dependent (MDHT, 100.0%; MT, 91.6%; ET, 76.9%). When compared with a single immersion, two-immersion treatments significantly increased the proportion of males in the MT-treated group (from 91.6% to 98.3%), decreased the proportion of males in the MDHT group (from 100.0% to 93.4%) and had no significant effect the ET-treated group (change from 76.9% to 82.5%). The overall comparison of the sex ratio among same treatments from different experiments (a single immersion in 1800 μg L⁻¹) was not significantly different.