A comparison of models for estimating the riverine export of nitrogen from large watersheds

We evaluated the accuracy of six watershed models of nitrogen export in streams (kg km2 yr−1) developed for use in large watersheds and representing various empirical and quasi-empirical approaches described in the literature. These models differ in their methods of calibration and have varying levels of spatial resolution and process complexity, which potentially affect the accuracy (bias and precision) of the model predictions of nitrogen export and source contributions to export. Using stream monitoring data and detailed estimates of the natural and cultural sources of nitrogen for 16 watersheds in the northeastern United States (drainage sizes = 475 to 70,000 km2), we assessed the accuracy of the model predictions of total nitrogen and nitrate-nitrogen export. The model validation included the use of an error modeling technique to identify biases caused by model deficiencies in quantifying nitrogen sources and biogeochemical processes affecting the transport of nitrogen in watersheds. Most models predicted stream nitrogen export to within 50% of the measured export in a majority of the watersheds. Prediction errors were negatively correlated with cultivated land area, indicating that the watershed models tended to over predict export in less agricultural and more forested watersheds and under predict in more agricultural basins. The magnitude of these biases differed appreciably among the models. Those models having more detailed descriptions of nitrogen sources, land and water attenuation of nitrogen, and water flow paths were found to have considerably lower bias and higher precision in their predictions of nitrogen export.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Greater Amman: metropolitan growth and scenarios for sustainable urban development

This paper reviews the development of Greater Amman, Jordan noting that the vast urban expansion that has occurred over the last fifty years has led to the desertification of rare fertile lands, following the fragmented and scattered territorial expansion of the city. The future scenario for planning in Greater Amman is analyzed in respect of proposals outlined in the Metropolitan Growth Plan of 2008, which assumes a rapid population growth from 2,200,000 persons in 2006, to approximately 6,500,000 by 2025. The concentration of more than 39 per cent of the national population of Jordan in Greater Amman threatens the transformation of former distinct settlement pattern into a distinctive continuous urban zone, aggravating problems of infrastructural provision, water needs, agricultural lands, and leaving unresolved problems of land inflation, poor urban standards and housing shortages. In conclusion, the environmental implications of the Amman Metropolitan Growth Plan are analysed, and it is suggested that an alternative approach is needed, based on clear principles of sustainable urban development.

Contribution of land use changes to near-surface air temperatures during recent summer extreme heat events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

The impact of 1973–2005 land use–land cover (LULC) changes on near-surface air temperatures during four recent summer extreme heat events (EHEs) are investigated for the arid Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) in conjunction with the Noah Urban Canopy Model. WRF simulations were carried out for each EHE using LULC for the years 1973, 1985, 1998, and 2005. Comparison of measured near-surface air temperatures and wind speeds for 18 surface stations in the region show a good agreement between observed and simulated data for all simulation periods. The results indicate consistent significant contributions of urban development and accompanying LULC changes to extreme temperatures for the four EHEs. Simulations suggest new urban developments caused an intensification and expansion of the area experiencing extreme temperatures but mainly influenced nighttime temperatures with an increase of up to 10 K. Nighttime temperatures in the existing urban core showed changes of up to 2 K with the ongoing LULC changes. Daytime temperatures were not significantly affected where urban development replaced desert land (increase by 1 K); however, maximum temperatures increased by 2–4 K when irrigated agricultural land was converted to suburban development. According to the model simulations, urban landscaping irrigation contributed to cooling by 0.5–1 K in maximum daytime as well as minimum nighttime 2-m air temperatures in most parts of the urban region. Furthermore, urban development led to a reduction of the already relatively weak nighttime winds and therefore a reduction in advection of cooler air into the city.

Airborne measurements of trace gases and aerosols over the London metropolitan region

The Emissions around the M25 motorway (EM25) campaign took place over the megacity of London in the United Kingdom in June 2009 with the aim of characterising trace gas and aerosol composition and properties entering and emitted from the urban region. It featured two mobile platforms, the UK BAe-146 Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) research aircraft and a ground-based mobile lidar van, both travelling in circuits around London, roughly following the path of the M25 motorway circling the city. We present an overview of findings from the project, which took place during typical UK summertime pollution conditions. Emission ratios of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to acetylene and carbon monoxide emitted from the London region were consistent with measurements in and downwind of other large urban areas and indicated traffic and associated fuel evaporation were major sources. Sub-micron aerosol composition was dominated by secondary species including sulphate (24% of sub-micron mass in the London plume and 29% in the non-plume regional aerosol), nitrate (24% plume; 20% regional) and organic aerosol (29% plume; 31% regional). The primary sub-micron aerosol emissions from London were minor compared to the larger regional background, with only limited increases in aerosol mass in the urban plume compared to the background (~12% mass increase on average). Black carbon mass was the major exception and more than doubled in the urban plume, leading to a decrease in the single scattering albedo from 0.91 in the regional aerosol to 0.86 in the London plume, on average. Our observations indicated that regional aerosol plays a major role on aerosol concentrations around London, at least during typical summertime conditions, meaning future efforts to reduce PM levels in London must account for regional as well as local aerosol sources.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Indoor and outdoor atmospheric fungal spores in the So Paulo metropolitan area (Brazil): species and numeric concentrations

The aim of this study was to estimate the indoor and outdoor concentrations of fungal spores in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), collected at different sites in winter/spring and summer seasons. The techniques adopted included cultivation (samples collected with impactors) and microscopic enumeration (samples collected with impingers). The overall results showed total concentrations of fungal spores as high as 36,000 per cubic meter, with a large proportion of non culturable spores (around 91% of the total). Penicillium sp. and Aspergillus sp. were the dominant species both indoors and outdoors, in all seasons tested, occurring in more than 30% of homes at very high concentrations of culturable airborne fungi [colony forming units(CFU) m(-3)]. There was no significant difference between indoor and outdoor concentrations. The total fungal spore concentration found in winter was 19% higher than that in summer. Heat and humidity were the main factors affecting fungal growth; however, a non-linear response to these factors was found. Thus, temperatures below 16A degrees C and above 25A degrees C caused a reduction in the concentration (CFU m(-3)) of airborne fungi, which fits with MASP climatalogy. The same pattern was observed for humidity, although not as clearly as with temperature given the usual high relative humidity (above 70%) in the study area. These results are relevant for public health interventions that aim to reduce respiratory morbidity among susceptible populations.

Evaluation of thermal simulation of households in the metropolitan region of So Paulo, Brazil

This paper aims at assessing the performance of a program of thermal simulation (Arquitrop) in different households in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. The households were selected for the Wheezing Project which followed up children under 2 years old to monitor the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The results show that in all three study households there is a good approximation between the observed and the simulated indoor temperatures. It was also observed a fairly consistent and realistic behavior between the simulated indoor and the outdoor temperatures, describing the Arquitrop model as an efficient estimator and good representative of the thermal behavior of households in the city of Sao Paulo. The worst simulation is linked to the poorest type of construction. This may be explained by the bad quality of the construction, which the Architrop could not simulate adequately.

Health surveys and use of maternal and child health care services in three municipalities within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area

Objectives. To describe the changes in the use of maternal and child health care services by residents of three municipalities-Embu, Itapecerica da Serra, and Taboao da Serra-in the Sao Paulo metropolitan area, 12 years after the implementation of the Unified Health System (SUS) in Brazil, and to analyze the potential of population-based health care surveys as sources of data to evaluate these changes. Methods. Two population-based, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 1990 and 2002 in municipalities located within the Sao Paulo metropolitan area. For children under 1 year of age, the two periods were compared in terms of outpatient services utilization and hospital admission; for the mothers, the periods were compared in terms of prenatal care and deliveries. In both surveys, stratified and multiple-stage conglomerate sampling was employed, with standardization of interview questions. Results. The most important changes observed were regarding the location of services used for prenatal care, deliveries, and hospitalization of children less than 1 year of age. There was a significant increase in the use of services in the surrounding region or hometown, and decrease in the utilization of services in the city of Sao Paulo (in 1990, 80% of deliveries and almost all admissions for children less than 1 year versus 32% and 46%, respectively, in 2002). The use of primary care units and 24-hour walk-in clinics also increased. All these changes reflect care provided by public resources. In the private sector, there was a decrease in direct payments and payments through company-paid health insurance and an increase in payments through self-paid health insurance. Conclusions. The major changes observed in the second survey occurred simultaneous to the changes that resulted from the implementation of the SUS. Population-based health surveys are adequate for analyzing and comparing the utilization of health care services at different times.

Dietary Quality and Associated Factors among Factory Workers in the Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo, Brazil

The workplace is a manageable community-based setting for ensuring proper nutrition. This study aimed to evaluate dietary quality and associated factors among adult workers at a cosmetics factory in the metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, Brazil. This factory was actively participating in the Brazilian Workers` Meal Program, which was created to ensure workers` nutritional health. In this cross-sectional study, data on 202 adult workers were assessed using questionnaires (sociodemographic, anthropometric, and lifestyle characteristics) administered during August and September 2006. Dietary intake, measured by 24-hour dietary recall, was used to calculate the modified Healthy Eating Index (HEI). A repeated administration of the 24-hour dietary recall was applied in a random subsample to calculate the modified HEI adjusted for the within-person variation in intake. Mean adjusted modified HEI scores were analyzed using multiple linear regression adjusted for energy. The mean adjusted modified HEI score was 72.3 +/- 8.0. The lowest adjusted modified HEI components scores were ""milk and dairy products"" (4.4 +/- 3.2) and ""sodium"" (3.7 +/- 3.1). Two percent of workers had ""poor diet"" (adjusted modified HEI score <51 points) and the majority (87%) had ""diet that needs modification"" (adjusted modified HEI score between 51 and 80), despite their participation in the meal program. Adjusted modified HEI scores were considerably higher for men (74.7 +/- 7.0) than for women (66.9 +/- 8.2) and for normal body mass index (calculated as kg/m(2)) (73.3 +/- 7.8) than for overweight/obese (70.9 +/- 8.1). Based on these results, the vast majority of workers were found to have diets that needed improvement. Individuals with higher-quality diets were more likely to have lower body mass index and to be male. J Am Diet Assoc. 2010;110:786-790.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Dynamics of Dissolved Forms of Carbon and Inorganic Nitrogen in Small Watersheds of the Coastal Atlantic Forest in Southeast Brazil

Based on the fact that streamwater quality reflects landscape conditions, the objectives of this study were: to investigate nitrogen (N), carbon (C), and major ion concentrations in six streams crossing minimally disturbed Atlantic Forest areas, with similar geomorphological characteristics; to determine N and C fluxes in one of these pristine streams (Indaia); and assess the impact of human activity on the biogeochemistry of two other streams in the same region, crossing urbanized areas. The distribution pattern of carbon and inorganic nitrogen dissolved forms, as well as the major ion and biogenic gas concentrations in the streamwater, was similar in pristine streams, indicating that the C and N dynamics were determined by influence of some factors, such as climate, atmospheric deposition, geology, soil type, and land covering, which were analogous in the forested watersheds. The urban streams were significantly different from the pristine streams, showing low dissolved oxygen concentrations, high respiration rates, and high concentrations of carbon dioxide, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, dissolved inorganic carbon, and major ion. These differences were attributed to anthropogenic impact on water quality, especially domestic sewage discharge. Additionally, in the Indaia stream, it was possible to observe the importance of rainfall over temporal dynamics of dissolved carbon forms, and also, the obtained specific flux of dissolved inorganic nitrogen was relatively elevated (approximately 11 kg ha(-1) year(-1)). These results reveal the influence of human activity over the biogeochemistry of coastal streams and also indicate the importance N export of Atlantic Forest to the ocean.

PCJ River Basins' Water Availability Caused by Water Diversion Scenarios to Supply Metropolitan Areas of So Paulo

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Alcohol use and falls among the elderly in Metropolitan São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)