Patterns, heuristics for architectural design support: making use of evolutionary modelling in design

Software used by architectural and industrial designers – has moved from becoming a tool for drafting, towards use in verification, simulation, project management and project sharing remotely. In more advanced models, parameters for the designed object can be adjusted so a family of variations can be produced rapidly. With advances in computer aided design technology, numerous design options can now be generated and analyzed in real time. However the use of digital tools to support design as an activity is still at an early stage and has largely been limited in functionality with regard to the design process. To date, major CAD vendors have not developed an integrated tool that is able to both leverage specialized design knowledge from various discipline domains (known as expert knowledge systems) and support the creation of design alternatives that satisfy different forms of constraints. We propose that evolutionary computing and machine learning be linked with parametric design techniques to record and respond to a designer’s own way of working and design history. It is expected that this will lead to results that impact on future work on design support systems-(ergonomics and interface) as well as implicit constraint and problem definition for problems that are difficult to quantify.

The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) collaboration : an individual patient data prospective meta-analysis

Background: Efforts to prevent the development of overweight and obesity have increasingly focused early in the life course as we recognise that both metabolic and behavioural patterns are often established within the first few years of life. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions are even more powerful when, with forethought, they are synthesised into an individual patient data (IPD) prospective meta-analysis (PMA). An IPD PMA is a unique research design where several trials are identified for inclusion in an analysis before any of the individual trial results become known and the data are provided for each randomised patient. This methodology minimises the publication and selection bias often associated with a retrospective meta-analysis by allowing hypotheses, analysis methods and selection criteria to be specified a priori. Methods/Design: The Early Prevention of Obesity in CHildren (EPOCH) Collaboration was formed in 2009. The main objective of the EPOCH Collaboration is to determine if early intervention for childhood obesity impacts on body mass index (BMI) z scores at age 18-24 months. Additional research questions will focus on whether early intervention has an impact on children’s dietary quality, TV viewing time, duration of breastfeeding and parenting styles. This protocol includes the hypotheses, inclusion criteria and outcome measures to be used in the IPD PMA. The sample size of the combined dataset at final outcome assessment (approximately 1800 infants) will allow greater precision when exploring differences in the effect of early intervention with respect to pre-specified participant- and intervention-level characteristics. Discussion: Finalisation of the data collection procedures and analysis plans will be complete by the end of 2010. Data collection and analysis will occur during 2011-2012 and results should be available by 2013. Trial registration number: ACTRN12610000789066

Which components of heart failure programs are effective? A meta-analysis of the outcomes of structured telephone support or telemonitoring as the primary component of heart failure management in 9,560 patients (Abridged Cochrane Review)

Aims--Telemonitoring (TM) and structured telephone support (STS) have the potential to deliver specialised management to more patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), but their efficacy is still to be proven. Objectives To review randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of TM or STS on all- cause mortality and all-cause and CHF-related hospitalisations in patients with CHF, as a non-invasive remote model of specialised disease-management intervention.--Methods and Results--Data sources:We searched 15 electronic databases and hand-searched bibliographies of relevant studies, systematic reviews, and meeting abstracts. Two reviewers independently extracted all data. Study eligibility and participants: We included any randomised controlled trials (RCT) comparing TM or STS to usual care of patients with CHF. Studies that included intensified management with additional home or clinic visits were excluded. Synthesis: Primary outcomes (mortality and hospitalisations) were analysed; secondary outcomes (cost, length of stay, quality of life) were tabulated.--Results: Thirty RCTs of STS and TM were identified (25 peer-reviewed publications (n=8,323) and five abstracts (n=1,482)). Of the 25 peer-reviewed studies, 11 evaluated TM (2,710 participants), 16 evaluated STS (5,613 participants) and two tested both interventions. TM reduced all-cause mortality (risk ratio (RR 0•66 [95% CI 0•54-0•81], p<0•0001) and STS showed similar trends (RR 0•88 [95% CI 0•76-1•01], p=0•08). Both TM (RR 0•79 [95% CI 0•67-0•94], p=0•008) and STS (RR 0•77 [95% CI 0•68-0•87], p<0•0001) reduced CHF-related hospitalisations. Both interventions improved quality of life, reduced costs, and were acceptable to patients. Improvements in prescribing, patient-knowledge and self-care, and functional class were observed.--Conclusion: TM and STS both appear effective interventions to improve outcomes in patients with CHF.

Effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Summary This systematic review demonstrates that vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in vitamin D replete adults. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Introduction The purpose of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the effect of vitamin D supplementation on muscle strength in adults. Methods A comprehensive systematic database search was performed. Inclusion criteria included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) involving adult human participants. All forms and doses of vitamin D supplementation with or without calcium supplementation were included compared with placebo or standard care. Outcome measures included evaluation of strength. Outcomes were compared by calculating standardised mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals. Results Of 52 identified studies, 17 RCTs involving 5,072 participants met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis showed no significant effect of vitamin D supplementation on grip strength (SMD −0.02, 95%CI −0.15,0.11) or proximal lower limb strength (SMD 0.1, 95%CI −0.01,0.22) in adults with 25(OH)D levels >25 nmol/L. Pooled data from two studies in vitamin D deficient participants (25(OH)D <25 nmol/L) demonstrated a large effect of vitamin D supplementation on hip muscle strength (SMD 3.52, 95%CI 2.18, 4.85). Conclusion Based on studies included in this systematic review, vitamin D supplementation does not have a significant effect on muscle strength in adults with baseline 25(OH)D >25 nmol/L. However, a limited number of studies demonstrate an increase in proximal muscle strength in adults with vitamin D deficiency. Keywords Muscle – Muscle fibre – Strength – Vitamin D

Parental bonding and alexithymia : a meta-analysis

Aim: The primary purpose of this meta-analysis was to explore, clarify and report the strength of the relationship between alexithymia, as measured by the Toronto Alexithymia Scale (TAS-20), and parenting style as measured by the Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI). Methods: Web of Science, PsycInfo, PubMed and ProQuest: Dissertations and Theses searches were undertaken, yielding nine samples with sufficient data to be included in the meta-analysis. Results: Evidence indicated moderate to strong relationships between maternal care and alexithymia, and between maternal care and two of the three TAS-20 alexithymia facets (Difficulties Describing Feelings and Difficulties Identifying Feelings, but not Externally Oriented Thinking). Moderate relationships were observed for both maternal- and paternal-overprotection and alexithymia respectively, and for overprotection (both maternal and paternal) and Difficulties Describing Feelings. Conclusion: This study is the first meta-analysis of the relationship between parenting styles and alexithymia, and findings confirm an especially strong association between maternal care and key elements of alexithymia. This review highlights the issues that still remain to be addressed in exploring the link between parenting style and alexithymia.

P2-486 Environmental temperature variation and morbidity: a meta-analysis

Extreme temperatures have been shown to have a detrimental effect on health. Hot temperatures can increase the risk of mortality, particularly in people suffering from cardiorespiratory diseases. Given the onset of climate change, it is critical that the impact of temperature on health is understood, so that effective public health strategies can correctly identify vulnerable groups within the population. However, while effects on mortality have been extensively studied, temperature–related morbidity has received less attention. This study applied a systematic review and meta–analysis to examine the current literature relating to hot temperatures and morbidity.

Street-level drug law enforcement : a meta-analytical review

Our paper presents the results of a meta-analytical review of street level drug law enforcement. We conducted a series of meta-analyses to compare and contrast the effectiveness of four types of drug law enforcement approaches, including community-wide policing, problem-oriented/ partnership approaches that were geographically focused, hotspots policing and standard, unfocused law enforcement efforts. We examined the relative impact of these different crime control tactics on streetlevel drug problems as well as associated problems such as property crime, disorder and violent crime. The results of the meta-analyses, together with examination of forest plots, reveal that problem-oriented policing and geographically-focused interventions involving cooperative partnerships between police and third parties tend to be more effective at controlling drug problems than community-wide policing efforts that are unfocused and spread out across a community. But geographically focused and community-wide drug law enforcement interventions that leverage partnerships are more effective at dealing with drug problems than traditional, law enforcement-only interventions. Our results suggest that the key to successful drug law enforcement lies in the capacity of the police to forge productive partnerships with third parties rather than simply increasing police presence or intervention (e.g., arrests) at drug hotspots.

Intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry : relative importance in discriminating GAD

This study explored whether intolerance of uncertainty and/or meta-worry discriminate between non-clinical individuals and those diagnosed with generalised anxiety disorder (GAD group). The participants were 107 GAD clients and 91 university students. The students were divided into two groups (high and low GAD symptom groups). A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANCOVA) adjusting for age indicated that intolerance of uncertainty distinguished between the low GAD symptom group and the high GAD symptom group, and between the low GAD symptom group and the GAD group. Meta-worry distinguished all three groups. A discriminant function including intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry classified 94.4% of the GAD group and 97.9% of the low GAD symptom group. Only 6.8% of the high GAD symptom group was classified correctly, 77.3% of the high GAD symptom group was classified as GAD. Findings indicated that intolerance of uncertainty and meta-worry may assist with the diagnosis and treatment of GAD.

The relationship of meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty with pathological worry, anxiety, and depression

This study explored how meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty relate to pathological worry, generalised anxiety, obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression. University students (n = 253) completed a questionnaire battery. A series of regression analyses were conducted. The results indicated that meta-worry was associated with GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive, and depressive symptoms. Intolerance of uncertainty was related to GAD, social phobia, and obsessive compulsive symptoms, but not depressive symptoms. The importance of meta-worry and intolerance of uncertainty as predictors of pathological worry, GAD, social phobia, obsessive compulsive and depressive symptoms was also examined. Even though both factors significantly predicted the aforementioned symptoms, meta-worry emerged as a stronger predictor of GAD and obsessive compulsive symptoms than did intolerance of uncertainty. Intolerance of uncertainty, compared with meta-worry, appeared as a stronger predictor of social phobia symptoms. Findings emphasise the importance of addressing meta-worry and/or intolerance of uncertainty not only for the assessment and treatment of generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), but also obsessive compulsive disorder, social phobia, and depression.

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly : a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

The relationship between abdominal obesity and depression in the general population : a systematic review and meta-analysis

Obesity has been widely regarded as a public health concern because of its adverse impact on individuals’ health. Systematic reviews have been published in examining the effect of obesity on depression, but with major emphasis on general obesity as measured by the body mass index. Despite a stronger effect of abdominal obesity on individuals’ physical health outcomes, to our best knowledge, no systematic review was undertaken with regard to the relationship between abdominal obesity and depression. This paper reports the results of a systematic review and meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies examining the relationship between abdominal obesity and depression in a general population. Multiple electronic databases were searched until the end of September 2009. 15 articles were systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed. The analysis showed that the odds ratio of having depression for individuals with abdominal obesity was 1.38 (95% CI, 1.22–1.57) as compared to those who are not obese. Furthermore, it was found that this relationship did not vary with potential confounders including gender, age, measurement of depression and abdominal obesity, and study quality.