Tropical cyclone climatology in a 10-km global atmospheric GCM: toward weather-resolving climate modeling

Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone (TC) activity is investigated in multiyear global climate simulations with theECMWFIntegrated Forecast System (IFS) at 10-km resolution forced by the observed records of sea surface temperature and sea ice. The results are compared to analogous simulationswith the 16-, 39-, and 125-km versions of the model as well as observations. In the North Atlantic, mean TC frequency in the 10-km model is comparable to the observed frequency, whereas it is too low in the other versions. While spatial distributions of the genesis and track densities improve systematically with increasing resolution, the 10-km model displays qualitatively more realistic simulation of the track density in the western subtropical North Atlantic. In the North Pacific, the TC count tends to be too high in thewest and too low in the east for all resolutions. These model errors appear to be associated with the errors in the large-scale environmental conditions that are fairly similar in this region for all model versions. The largest benefits of the 10-km simulation are the dramatically more accurate representation of the TC intensity distribution and the structure of the most intense storms. The model can generate a supertyphoon with a maximum surface wind speed of 68.4 m s21. The life cycle of an intense TC comprises intensity fluctuations that occur in apparent connection with the variations of the eyewall/rainband structure. These findings suggest that a hydrostatic model with cumulus parameterization and of high enough resolution could be efficiently used to simulate the TC intensity response (and the associated structural changes) to future climate change.

Transition from an anti-phase error-correction-mode to a synchronization mode in the mutual hand tracking

Proactive motion in hand tracking and in finger bending, in which the body motion occurs prior to the reference signal, was reported by the preceding researchers when the target signals were shown to the subjects at relatively high speed or high frequencies. These phenomena indicate that the human sensory-motor system tends to choose an anticipatory mode rather than a reactive mode, when the target motion is relatively fast. The present research was undertaken to study what kind of mode appears in the sensory-motor system when two persons were asked to track the hand position of the partner with each other at various mean tracking frequency. The experimental results showed a transition from a mutual error-correction mode to a synchronization mode occurred in the same region of the tracking frequency with that of the transition from a reactive error-correction mode to a proactive anticipatory mode in the mechanical target tracking experiments. Present research indicated that synchronization of body motion occurred only when both of the pair subjects operated in a proactive anticipatory mode. We also presented mathematical models to explain the behavior of the error-correction mode and the synchronization mode.

A dynamic mechanistic model of lactic acid metabolism in the rumen

Current feed evaluation systems for ruminants are too imprecise to describe diets in terms of their acidosis risk. The dynamic mechanistic model described herein arises from the integration of a lactic acid (La) metabolism module into an extant model of whole-rumen function. The model was evaluated using published data from cows and sheep fed a range of diets or infused with various doses of La. The model performed well in simulating peak rumen La concentrations (coefficient of determination = 0.96; root mean square prediction error = 16.96% of observed mean), although frequency of sampling for the published data prevented a comprehensive comparison of prediction of time to peak La accumulation. The model showed a tendency for increased La accumulation following feeding of diets rich in nonstructural carbohydrates, although less-soluble starch sources such as corn tended to limit rumen La concentration. Simulated La absorption from the rumen remained low throughout the feeding cycle. The competition between bacteria and protozoa for rumen La suggests a variable contribution of protozoa to total La utilization. However, the model was unable to simulate the effects of defaunation on rumen La metabolism, indicating a need for a more detailed description of protozoal metabolism. The model could form the basis of a feed evaluation system with regard to rumen La metabolism.

Speech Assessment for the Classification of Hypokinetic Dysthria in Parkinson Disease

The aim of this thesis is to investigate computerized voice assessment methods to classify between the normal and Dysarthric speech signals. In this proposed system, computerized assessment methods equipped with signal processing and artificial intelligence techniques have been introduced. The sentences used for the measurement of inter-stress intervals (ISI) were read by each subject. These sentences were computed for comparisons between normal and impaired voice. Band pass filter has been used for the preprocessing of speech samples. Speech segmentation is performed using signal energy and spectral centroid to separate voiced and unvoiced areas in speech signal. Acoustic features are extracted from the LPC model and speech segments from each audio signal to find the anomalies. The speech features which have been assessed for classification are Energy Entropy, Zero crossing rate (ZCR), Spectral-Centroid, Mean Fundamental-Frequency (Meanf0), Jitter (RAP), Jitter (PPQ), and Shimmer (APQ). Naïve Bayes (NB) has been used for speech classification. For speech test-1 and test-2, 72% and 80% accuracies of classification between healthy and impaired speech samples have been achieved respectively using the NB. For speech test-3, 64% correct classification is achieved using the NB. The results direct the possibility of speech impairment classification in PD patients based on the clinical rating scale.

Physiological demands of competitive elite cross-country skiing

Introduction Researchers have, for decades, contributed to an increased collective understanding of the physiological demands in cross-country skiing; however, almost all of these studies have used either non-elite subjects and/or performances that emulate cross-country skiing. To establish the physiological demands of cross-country skiing, it is important to relate the investigated physiological variables to the competitive performance of elite skiers. The overall aim of this doctoral thesis was, therefore, to investigate the external validity of physiological test variables to determine the physiological demands in competitive elite cross-country skiing. Methods The subjects in Study I – IV were elite male (I – III) and female (III – IV) cross-country skiers. In all studies, the relationship between test variables (general and ski-specific) and competitive performances (i.e. the results from competitions or the overall ski-ranking points of the International Ski Federation (FIS) for sprint (FISsprint) and distance (FISdist) races) were analysed. Test variables reflecting the subject’s general strength, upper-body and whole-body oxygen uptake, oxygen uptake and work intensity at the lactate threshold, mean upper-body power, lean mass, and maximal double-poling speed were investigated. Results The ability to maintain a high work rate without accumulating lactate is an indicator of distance performance, independent of sex (I, IV). Independent of sex, high oxygen uptake in whole-body and upper-body exercise was important for both sprint (II, IV) and distance (I, IV) performance. The maximal double-poling speed and 60-s double-poling mean power output were indicators of sprint (IV) and distance performance (I), respectively. Lean mass was correlated with distance performance for women (III), whereas correlations were found between lean mass and sprint performance among both male and female skiers (III). Moreover, no correlations between distance performance and test variables were derived from tests of knee-extension peak torque, vertical jumps, or double poling on a ski-ergometer with 20-s and 360-s durations (I), whereas gross efficiency while treadmill roller skiing showed no correlation with either distance or sprint performance in cross-country skiing (IV). Conclusion The results in this thesis show that, depending on discipline and sex, maximal and peak oxygen uptake, work intensity at the lactate threshold, lean mass, double-poling mean power output, and double-poling maximal speed are all externally valid physiological test variables for evaluation of performance capability among elite cross-country skiers; however, to optimally indicate performance capability different test-variable expressions should be used; in general, the absolute expression appears to be a better indicator of competitive sprint performance whereas the influence of body mass should be considered when evaluating competitive distance performance capability of elite cross-country skiers.

Reliability of performance in repeated sprint cycling tests

We have estimated the reliability of performance in a commonly employed exercise test consisting of repeated sprints on a cycle ergometer. Eight recreationally active young men completed a practice trial and three more trials at 3- to 6-day intervals. Each trial consisted of two bouts of 30-s maximal-effort cycling on an electromagnetically braked cycle ergometer; the bouts were separated by 4 min of rest. The typical (standard) errors of measurement for peak and mean power between trials 2 to 4 were 2.5 and 1.7% respectively for the first bout and 1.9 and 1.8% for the second bout. These errors are substantially less than those in previous reliability studies of single 30-s sprint tests, probably because of differences in quality of ergometer. The typical errors for the difference between bouts (i.e., fatigue) for peak power and mean power were 3.0 and 2.5%, respectively. Typical errors for the average of the two bouts were 1.6 and 1.2% for peak and mean power respectively, which are small enough to give adequate precision for moderate treatment effects in studies with modest sample sizes.

The influence of pacing during 6-minute supra-maximal cycle ergometer performance

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of pacing on performance, oxygen uptake (V̇O₂), oxygen deficit and blood lactate accumulation during a 6-minute cycle ergometer test. Six recreational cyclists completed three 6-minute cycling tests using fast-start, even-pacing and slow-fast pacing conditions. Cycle ergometer performance was measured as the mean power output produced for each cycling test. Energy system contribution during each cycling trial was estimated using a modified accumulated oxygen deficit (AOD) method. Blood lactate concentration was analysed from blood sampled using a catheter in a forearm vein prior to exercise, at 2 minutes, 4 minutes and 6 minutes during exercise, and at 2 minutes, 5 minutes and 10 minutes post-exercise. There was no significant difference between the pacing conditions for mean power output (P=0.09), peak V̇O₂ (P=0.92), total V̇O₂ (P=0.76), AOD (P=0.91), the time-course of V̇O₂ (P=0.22) or blood lactate accumulation (P=0.07). There was, however, a significant difference between the three pacing conditions in the oxygen deficit measured over time (P=0.02). These changes in the time-course of oxygen deficit during cycling trials did not, however, significantly affect the mean power output produced by each pacing condition.

The use of injury surveillance databases to identify emerging injury hazards

Among the many valuable uses of injury surveillance is the potential to alert health authorities and societies in general to emerging injury trends, facilitating earlier development of prevention measures. Other than road safety, to date, few attempts to forecast injury data have been made, although forecasts have been made of other public health issues. This may in part be due to the complex pattern of variance displayed by injury data. The profile of many injury types displays seasonality and diurnal variance, as well as stochastic variance. The authors undertook development of a simple model to forecast injury into the near term. In recognition of the large numbers of possible predictions, the variable nature of injury profiles and the diversity of dependent variables, it became apparent that manual forecasting was impractical. Therefore, it was decided to evaluate a commercially available forecasting software package for prediction accuracy against actual data for a set of predictions. Injury data for a 4-year period (1996 to 1999) were extracted from the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset and were used to develop forecasts for the year 2000, for which data was also held. The forecasts for 2000 were compared to the actual data for 2000 by independent t-tests, and the standard errors of the predictions were modelled by stepwise hierarchical multiple regression using the independent variables of the standard deviation, seasonality, mean monthly frequency and slope of the base data (R = 0.93, R² = 0.86, F_{(3, 27)} = 55.2, p < 0.0001). Significant contributions to the model included the SD (β = 1.60, p < 0.001), mean monthly frequency (β =  - 0.72, p < 0.002), and the seasonality of the data (β = 0.16, p < 0.02). It was concluded that injury data could be reliably forecast and that commercial software was adequate for the task. Variance in the data was found to be the most important determinant of prediction accuracy. Importantly, automated forecasting may provide a vehicle for identifying emerging trends.

Dynamic pacing strategies during the cycle phase of an ironman triathlon

Introduction: A nonlinear dynamic systems model has previously been proposed to explain pacing strategies employed during exercise.

Purpose: This study was conducted to examine the pacing strategies used under varying conditions during the cycle phase of an Ironman triathlon.

Methods: The bicycles of six well-trained male triathletes were equipped with SRM power meters set to record power output, cadence, speed, and heart rate. The flat, three-lap, out-and-back cycle course, coupled with relatively consistent wind conditions (17-30 km·h-1), enabled comparisons to be made between three consecutive 60-km laps and relative wind direction (headwind vs tailwind).

Results: Participants finished the cycle phase (180 km) with consistently fast performance times (5 h, 11 ± 2 min; top 10% of all finishers). Average power output (239 ± 25 to 203 ± 20 W), cadence (89 ± 6 to 82 ± 8 rpm), and speed (36.5 ± 0.8 to 33.1 ± 0.8 km·h-1) all significantly decreased with increasing number of laps (P < 0.05). These variables, however, were not significantly different between headwind and tailwind sections. The deviation (SD) in power output and cadence did not change with increasing number of laps; however, the deviations in torque (6.8 ± 1.6 and 5.8 ± 1.3 N·m) and speed (2.1 ± 0.5 and 1.6 ± 0.3 km·h-1) were significantly greater under headwind compared with tailwind conditions, respectively. The median power frequency tended to be lower in headwind (0.0480 ± 0.0083) compared with tailwind (0.0531 ± 0.0101) sections.

Conclusion: These data show evidence that a nonlinear dynamic pacing strategy is used by well-trained triathletes throughout various segments and conditions of the Ironman cycle phase. Moreover, an increased variation in torque and speed was found in the headwind versus the tailwind condition.

Similar metabolic adaptations during exercise after low volume sprint interval and traditional endurance training in humans

Low-volume ‘sprint’ interval training (SIT) stimulates rapid improvements in muscle oxidative capacity that are comparable to levels reached following traditional endurance training (ET) but no study has examined metabolic adaptations during exercise after these different training strategies. We hypothesized that SIT and ET would induce similar adaptations in markers of skeletal muscle carbohydrate (CHO) and lipid metabolism and metabolic control during exercise despite large differences in training volume and time commitment. Active but untrained subjects (23 ± 1 years) performed a constant-load cycling challenge (1 h at 65% of peak oxygen uptake before and after 6 weeks of either SIT or ET (n = 5 men and 5 women per group). SIT consisted of four to six repeats of a 30 s ‘all out’ Wingate Test (mean power output ∼500 W) with 4.5 min recovery between repeats, 3 days per week. ET consisted of 40–60 min of continuous cycling at a workload that elicited ∼65% (mean power output ∼150 W) per day, 5 days per week. Weekly time commitment (∼1.5 versus ∼4.5 h) and total training volume (∼225 versus ∼2250 kJ week−1) were substantially lower in SIT versus ET. Despite these differences, both protocols induced similar increases (P < 0.05) in mitochondrial markers for skeletal muscle CHO (pyruvate dehydrogenase E1α protein content) and lipid oxidation (3-hydroxyacyl CoA dehydrogenase maximal activity) and protein content of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ coactivator-1α. Glycogen and phosphocreatine utilization during exercise were reduced after training, and calculated rates of whole-body CHO and lipid oxidation were decreased and increased, respectively, with no differences between groups (all main effects, P < 0.05). Given the markedly lower training volume in the SIT group, these data suggest that high-intensity interval training is a time-efficient strategy to increase skeletal muscle oxidative capacity and induce specific metabolic adaptations during exercise that are comparable to traditional ET.

Reliability and effect of sodium bicarbonate : buffering and 2000-m rowing performance

Purpose: The aim of this study was to determine the effect and reliability of acute and chronic sodium bicarbonate ingestion for 2000-m rowing ergometer performance (watts) and blood bicarbonate concentration [HCO3 -]. Methods: In a crossover study, 7 well-trained rowers performed paired 2000-m rowing ergometer trials under 3 double-blinded conditions: (1) 0.3 grams per kilogram of body mass (g/kg BM) acute bicarbonate; (2) 0.5 g/ kg BM daily chronic bicarbonate for 3 d; and (3) calcium carbonate placebo, in semi-counterbalanced order. For 2000-m performance and [HCO3 -], we examined differences in effects between conditions via pairwise comparisons, with differences interpreted in relation to the likelihood of exceeding smallest worthwhile change thresholds for each variable. We also calculated the within-subject variation (percent typical error). Results: There were only trivial differences in 2000-m performance between placebo (277 ± 60 W), acute bicarbonate (280 ± 65 W) and chronic bicarbonate (282 ± 65 W); however, [HCO3 -] was substantially greater after acute bicarbonate, than with chronic loading and placebo. Typical error for 2000-m mean power was 2.1% (90% confidence interval 1.4 to 4.0%) for acute bicarbonate, 3.6% (2.5 to 7.0%) for chronic bicarbonate, and 1.6% (1.1 to 3.0%) for placebo. Postsupplementation [HCO3 -] typical error was 7.3% (5.0 to 14.5%) for acute bicarbonate, 2.9% (2.0 to 5.7%) for chronic bicarbonate and 6.0% (1.4 to 11.9%) for placebo. Conclusion: Performance in 2000-m rowing ergometer trials may not substantially improve after acute or chronic bicarbonate loading. However, performances will be reliable with both acute and chronic bicarbonate loading protocols. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Induced alkalosis and caffeine supplementation : effects on 2,000-m rowing performance

Introduction: The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effect of ingested caffeine, sodium bicarbonate, and their combination on 2,000-m rowing performance, as well as on induced alkalosis (blood and urine pH and blood bicarbonate concentration [HCO3 -]), blood lactate concentration ([La-]), gastrointestinal symptoms, and rating of perceived exertion (RPE). Methods: In a double-blind, crossover study, 8 well-trained rowers performed 2 baseline tests and 4 × 2,000-m rowing-ergometer tests after ingesting 6 mg/kg caffeine, 0.3 g/kg body mass (BM) sodium bicarbonate, both supplements combined, or a placebo. Capillary blood samples were collected at preingestion, pretest, and posttest time points. Pairwise comparisons were made between protocols, and differences were interpreted in relation to the likelihood of exceeding the smallest-worthwhile- change thresholds for each variable. A likelihood of >75% was considered a substantial change. Results: Caffeine supplementation elicited a substantial improvement in 2,000-m mean power, with mean (± SD) values of 354 ± 67 W vs. placebo with 346 ± 61 W. Pretest [HCO3 -] reached 29.2 ± 2.9 mmol/L with caffeine + bicarbonate and 29.1 ± 1.9 mmol/L with bicarbonate. There were substantial increases in pretest [HCO3 -] and pH and posttest urine pH after bicarbonate and caffeine + bicarbonate supplementation compared with placebo, but unclear performance effects. Conclusions: Rowers' performance in 2,000-m efforts can improve by ~2% with 6 mg/kg BM caffeine supplementation. When caffeine is combined with sodium bicarbonate, gastrointestinal symptoms may prevent performance enhancement, so further investigation of ingestion protocols that minimize side effects is required. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Effects of acute alkalosis and acidosis on performance

Ingestion of agents that modify blood buffering action may affect high-intensity performance. Here we present a meta-analysis of the effects of acute ingestion of three such agents - sodium bicarbonate, sodium citrate and ammonium chloride - on performance and related physiological variables (blood bicarbonate, pH and lactate). A literature search yielded 59 useable studies with 188 observations of performance effects. To perform the mixed- model meta-analysis, all performance effects were converted into a percentage change in mean power and were weighted using standard errors derived from exact p-values, confidence limits (CLs) or estimated errors of measurement. The fixed effects in the meta-analytic model included the number of performance-test bouts (linear), test duration (log linear), blinding (yes/no), competitive status (athiete/nonathlete) and sex (male/female). Dose expressed as buffering mmoL/kg/body mass (BM) was included as a strictly proportional linear effect interacted with all effects except blinding. Probabilistic inferences were derived with reference to thresholds for small and moderate effects on performance of 0.5% and 1.5%, respectively. Publication bias was reduced by excluding study estimates with a standard error >2.7%. The remaining 38 studies and 137 estimates for sodium bicarbonate produced a possibly mod- erate performance enhancement of 1.7% (90% CL ± 2.0%) with a typical dose of 3.5mmoL/kg/BM (-0.3g/kgIBM) in a single 1-minute sprint, following blinded consumption by male athletes. In the 16 studies and 45 estimates for sodium citrate, a typical dose of l.SmmoL/kgIBM (-0.5gIkgJBM) had an unclear effect on performance of 0.0% (±1.3%), while the five studies and six estimates for ammonium chloride produced a possibly moderate impairment of 1.6% (±1.9%) with a typical dose of 5.5mmoL/kgIBM (-0.3glkg/BM). Study and subject characteristics had the following modifying small effects on the enhancement of performance with sodium bicarbonate: an increase of 0.5% (±0.6%) with a 1 mmoL/kg/BM increase in dose; an increase of 0.6% (±0.4%) with five extra sprint bouts; a reduction of 0.6% (±0.9%) for each 10-fold increase in test duration (e.g. 1-10 minutes); reductions of 1.1% (± 1 .1%) with nonathletes and 0.7% (±1.4%) with females. Unexplained variation in effects between research settings was typically ± 1.2%. The only noteworthy effects involving physiological variables were a small correlation between performance and pre-exercise increase in blood bicarbonate with sodium bi- carbonate ingestion, and a very large correlation between the increase in blood bicarbonate and time between sodium citrate ingestion and exercise. The approximate equal and opposite effects of sodium bicarbonate and am- monium chloride are consistent with direct performance effects of pH, but sodium citrate appears to have some additional metabolic inhibitory effect. Important future research includes studies of sodium citrate ingestion several hours before exercise and quantification of gastrointestinal symptoms with sodium bicarbonate and citrate. Although individual responses may vary, we recommend ingestion of 0.3-0.5 glkg/BM sodium bicarbonate to improve mean power by 1.7% (±2.0%) in high-intensity races of short duration. ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR

Efeito imediato da estimulação elétrica neuromuscular seletiva do músculo VMO em pacientes com síndrome da dor femoropatelar

Patellofemoral pain syndrome (PFPS) is described as anterior or retropatellar pain knee in the absence of other pathologies and is frequently associated with dysfunction of the vastus medialis oblique (VMO). However, several studies have demonstrated the inability to selectively activate this muscle through exercise. To evaluate the effect of Neuromuscular Electrical Stimulation (NMES) selective VMO in women with syndrome. We evaluated thirty-eight women: twenty in the control group (24.15 ± 2.60 years) and eighteen diagnosed with PFPS (25.56 ± 3.55 years). Both groups were evaluated before and after a protocol of electro stimulation. To measure for comparing groups before and after treatment, we assessed the extensor torque concentric and eccentric knee through an isokinetic dynamometer, the intensity (Root Mean Square - RMS) and the onset of activation (onset) of VMO compared to the vastus lateralis (VL) in two types of exercise: open and closed kinetic chain. . Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 15.0, with a significance level of 5%. Results: Our data showed an increase in the intensity of activation (RMS) of the VMO muscle after NMES in both study groups. During concentric contraction the RMS of the VMO before the NMES was 105.69 ± 32.26 μV and after a single intervention was 122.10 ± 39.62 μV (p = 0.048) for the control group. In the group with PPS, we found a similar behavior, with RMS of the VMO before NMES of 96.25 ± 18.83 μV and 139.80 ± 65.88 μV after the intervention (p = 0.0001). However, there was no evidence in the RMS value of VL muscle. The onset was calculated by subtracting the onset of VL by the onset of VMO. For the group with PFPS, the onset before the intervention was -0.007 ± 0.14 ms, indicating a delay of the VMO relative to VL, and after NMES was 0.074 ± 0.09 ms (p = 0.016), showing an activation previous VMO to VL. The same occurred for the control group. We also observed that NMES increased knee extensor power during the concentric contraction in both groups. Before the intervention the mean power was 28.97 ± 9.01 W for the PPS group and after NMES was 34.38 ± 7.61 W (p = 0.0001). Conclusion: We observed an increase in electromyographic activity of the VMO and also an anticipatory effect of this muscle

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º