Probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture and associated crop net margins.

Rising water demands are difficult to meet in many regions of the world. In consequence, under meteorological adverse conditions, big economic losses in agriculture can take place. This paper aims to analyze the variability of water shortage in an irrigation district and the effect on farmer?s income. A probabilistic analysis of water availability for agriculture in the irrigation district is performed, through a supply-system simulation approach, considering stochastically generated series of stream-flows. Net margins associated to crop production are as well estimated depending on final water allocations. Net margins are calculated considering either single-crop farming, either a polyculture system. In a polyculture system, crop distribution and water redistribution are calculated through an optimization approach using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for several scenarios of irrigation water availability. Expected net margins are obtained by crop and for the optimal crop and water distribution. The maximum expected margins are obtained for the optimal crop combination, followed by the alfalfa monoculture, maize, rice, wheat and finally barley. Water is distributed as follows, from biggest to smallest allocation: rice, alfalfa, maize, wheat and barley.

High-quality region-based foreground segmentation using a spatial grid of SVM classifiers

This paper presents a novel background modeling system that uses a spatial grid of Support Vector Machines classifiers for segmenting moving objects, which is a key step in many video-based consumer applications. The system is able to adapt to a large range of dynamic background situations since no parametric model or statistical distribution are assumed. This is achieved by using a different classifier per image region that learns the specific appearance of that scene region and its variations (illumination changes, dynamic backgrounds, etc.). The proposed system has been tested with a recent public database, outperforming other state-of-the-art algorithms.

Desenvolvimento de estratégias de otimização contínua e discreta para problemas de fluxo de potência ótimo

O objetivo do presente trabalho é a investigação e o desenvolvimento de estratégias de otimização contínua e discreta para problemas de Fluxo de Potência Ótimo (FPO), onde existe a necessidade de se considerar as variáveis de controle associadas aos taps de transformadores em-fase e chaveamentos de bancos de capacitores e reatores shunt como variáveis discretas e existe a necessidade da limitação, e/ou até mesmo a minimização do número de ações de controle. Neste trabalho, o problema de FPO será abordado por meio de três estratégias. Na primeira proposta, o problema de FPO é modelado como um problema de Programação Não Linear com Variáveis Contínuas e Discretas (PNLCD) para a minimização de perdas ativas na transmissão; são propostas três abordagens utilizando funções de discretização para o tratamento das variáveis discretas. Na segunda proposta, considera-se que o problema de FPO, com os taps de transformadores discretos e bancos de capacitores e reatores shunts fixos, possui uma limitação no número de ações de controles; variáveis binárias associadas ao número de ações de controles são tratadas por uma função quadrática. Na terceira proposta, o problema de FPO é modelado como um problema de Otimização Multiobjetivo. O método da soma ponderada e o método ε-restrito são utilizados para modificar os problemas multiobjetivos propostos em problemas mono-objetivos. As variáveis binárias associadas às ações de controles são tratadas por duas funções, uma sigmoidal e uma polinomial. Para verificar a eficácia e a robustez dos modelos e algoritmos desenvolvidos serão realizados testes com os sistemas elétricos IEEE de 14, 30, 57, 118 e 300 barras. Todos os algoritmos e modelos foram implementados em General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) e os solvers CONOPT, IPOPT, KNITRO e DICOPT foram utilizados na resolução dos problemas. Os resultados obtidos confirmam que as estratégias de discretização são eficientes e as propostas de modelagem para variáveis binárias permitem encontrar soluções factíveis para os problemas envolvendo as ações de controles enquanto os solvers DICOPT e KNITRO utilizados para modelar variáveis binárias não encontram soluções.

Processing of Knowledge about Optimization of Classical Optimizing Transformations

The article describes the structure of an ontology model for Optimization of a sequential program. The components of an intellectual modeling system for program optimization are described. The functions of the intellectual modeling system are defined.

Presenting SAPUSS: solving aerosol problem by using synergistic strategies in Barcelona, Spain

This paper presents the summary of the key objectives, instrumentation and logistic details, goals, and initial scientific findings of the European Marie Curie Action SAPUSS project carried out in the western Mediterranean Basin (WMB) during September-October in autumn 2010. The key SAPUSS objective is to deduce aerosol source characteristics and to understand the atmospheric processes responsible for their generations and transformations - both horizontally and vertically in the Mediterranean urban environment. In order to achieve so, the unique approach of SAPUSS is the concurrent measurements of aerosols with multiple techniques occurring simultaneously in six monitoring sites around the city of Barcelona (NE Spain): a main road traffic site, two urban background sites, a regional background site and two urban tower sites (150 m and 545 m above sea level, 150 m and 80 m above ground, respectively). SAPUSS allows us to advance our knowledge sensibly of the atmospheric chemistry and physics of the urban Mediterranean environment. This is well achieved only because of both the three dimensional spatial scale and the high sampling time resolution used. During SAPUSS different meteorological regimes were encountered, including warm Saharan, cold Atlantic, wet European and stagnant regional ones. The different meteorology of such regimes is herein described. Additionally, we report the trends of the parameters regulated by air quality purposes (both gaseous and aerosol mass concentrations); and we also compare the six monitoring sites. High levels of traffic-related gaseous pollutants were measured at the urban ground level monitoring sites, whereas layers of tropospheric ozone were recorded at tower levels. Particularly, tower level night-time average ozone concentrations (80 +/- 25 mu g m(-3)) were up to double compared to ground level ones. The examination of the vertical profiles clearly shows the predominant influence of NOx on ozone concentrations, and a source of ozone aloft. Analysis of the particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations shows an enhancement of coarse particles (PM2.5-10) at the urban ground level (+64 %, average 11.7 mu g m(-3)) but of fine ones (PM1) at urban tower level (+28 %, average 14.4 mu g m(-3)). These results show complex dynamics of the size-resolved PM mass at both horizontal and vertical levels of the study area. Preliminary modelling findings reveal an underestimation of the fine accumulation aerosols. In summary, this paper lays the foundation of SAPUSS, an integrated study of relevance to many other similar urban Mediterranean coastal environment sites.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.

Predicting the Dispersal Potential of an Invasive Polychaete Pest along a Complex Coastal Biome

Boccardia proboscidea is a recently introduced polychaete in South Africa where it is a notorious pest of commercially reared abalone. Populations were originally restricted to abalone farms but a recent exodus into the wild at some localities has raised conservation concerns due to the species’ invasive status in other parts of the world. Here, we assessed the dispersal potential of B. proboscidea by using a population genetic and oceanographic modeling approach. Since the worm is in its incipient stages of a potential invasion, we used the closely related Polydora hoplura as a proxy due its similar reproductive strategy and its status as a pest of commercially reared oysters in the country. Populations of P. hoplura were sampled from seven different localities and a section of the mtDNA gene, Cyt b and the intron ATPSa was amplified. A high resolution model of the coastal waters around southern Africa was constructed using the Regional Ocean Modeling System. Larvae were represented by passive drifters that were deployed at specific points along the coast and dispersal was quantified after a 12-month integration period. Our results showed discordance between the genetic and modeling data. There was low genetic structure (Φ = 0.04 for both markers) and no geographic patterning of mtDNA and nDNA haplotypes. However, the dispersal model found limited connectivity around Cape Point—a major phylogeographic barrier on the southern African coast. This discordance was attributed to anthropogenic movement of larvae and adult worms due to vectors such as aquaculture and shipping. As such, we hypothesized that cryptic dispersal could be overestimating genetic connectivity. Though wild populations of B. proboscidea could become isolated due to the Cape Point barrier, anthropogenic movement may play the critical role in facilitating the dispersal and spread of this species on the southern African coast.

Simulating the effects of vegetation and landscape structure on fire behavior in northeastern Portugal: the case of holm oak (Quercus rotundifolia)

O fogo é um processo frequente nas paisagens do norte de Portugal. Estudos anteriores mostraram que os bosques de azinheira (Quercus rotundifolia) persistem após a passagem do fogo e ajudam a diminuir a sua intensidade e taxa de propagação. Os principais objetivos deste estudo foram compreender e modelar o efeito dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo ao nível da paisagem da bacia superior do rio Sabor, localizado no nordeste de Portugal. O impacto dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo foi testado em termos de área e configuração de acordo com cenários que simulam a possível distribuição destas unidades de vegetação na paisagem, considerando uma percentagem de ocupação da azinheira de 2.2% (Low), 18.1% (Moderate), 26.0% (High), e 39.8% (Rivers). Estes cenários tiveram como principal objetivo testar 1) o papel dos bosques de azinheira no comportamento do fogo e 2) de que forma a configuração das manchas de azinheira podem ajudar a diminuir a intensidade da linha de fogo e área ardida. Na modelação do comportamento do fogo foi usado o modelo FlamMap para simular a intensidade de linha do fogo e taxa de propagação do fogo com base em modelos de combustível associados a cada ocupação e uso do solo presente na área de estudo, e também com base em fatores topográficos (altitude, declive e orientação da encosta) e climáticos (humidade e velocidade do vento). Foram ainda usados dois modelos de combustível para a ocupação de azinheira (áreas interiores e de bordadura), desenvolvidos com base em dados reais obtidos na região. Usou-se o software FRAGSATS para a análise dos padrões espaciais das classes de intensidade de linha do fogo, usando-se as métricas Class Area (CA), Number of Patches (NP) e Large Patches Index (LPI). Os resultados obtidos indicaram que a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação do fogo variou entre cenários e entre modelos de combustível para o azinhal. A intensidade média da linha de fogo e a taxa média de propagação do fogo decresceu à medida que a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou na paisagem. Também foi observado que as métricas CA, NP e LPI variaram entre cenários e modelos de combustível para o azinhal, decrescendo quando a percentagem de área de bosques de azinheira aumentou. Este estudo permitiu concluir que a variação da percentagem de ocupação e configuração espacial dos bosques de azinheira influenciam o comportamento do fogo, reduzindo, em termos médios, a intensidade da linha de fogo e a taxa de propagação, sugerindo que os bosques de azinhal podem ser usados como medidas silvícolas preventivas para diminuir o risco de incêndio nesta região.

Análisis de rendimiento y profiling del modelo WRF en un clúster HPC

El modelo de investigación y pronóstico climático (WRF) es un sistema completamente funcional de modelado que permite realizar investigación atmosférica y predicción meteorológica. WRF fue desarrollado con énfasis en la eficiencia, portabilidad, facilidad de mantenimiento, escalabilidad y productividad, lo que ha permitido que sea implementado con éxito en una amplia variedad de equipos HPC. Por esta razón, el tamaño de los problemas a los que WRF da soporte ha incrementado, por lo que el entendimiento de la dependencia del WRF con los diversos elementos de clúster, como la CPU, interconexiones y librerías, son cruciales para permitir predicciones eficientes y de alta productividad. En este contexto, el presente manuscrito estudia la escalabilidad de WRF en un equipo HPC, tomando en consideración tres parámetros: número de CPUs y nodos, comunicaciones y librerías. Para esto, dos benchmarks son llevados a cabo sobre un clúster de alto rendimiento dotado de una red GigaEthernet, los cuales permiten establecer la relación entre escalabilidad y los tres parámetros estudiados, y particularmente demuestran la sensibilidad del WRF a la comunicación inter-nodo. Dicho factor es esencial para mantener la escalabilidad y el aumento de la productividad al añadir nodos en el clúster.

The impact of tides and waves on near-surface suspended sediment concentrations in the English Channel

Numerous ecological problems of continental shelf ecosystems require a refined knowledge of the evolution of suspended sediment concentrations (SSC). The present investigation focuses on the spatial and temporal variabilities of near-surface SSC in coastal waters of the English Channel (western Europe) by exploiting numerical predictions from the Regional Ocean Modeling System ROMS. Extending previous investigations of ROMS performances in the Channel, this analysis refines, with increased spatial and temporal resolutions, the characterization of near-surface SSC patterns revealing areas where concentrations are highly correlated with evolutions of tides and waves. Significant tidal modulations of near-surface concentrations are thus found in the eastern English Channel and the French Dover Strait while a pronounced influence of waves is exhibited in the Channel Islands Gulf. Coastal waters present furthermore strong SSC temporal variations, particularly noticeable during storm events of autumn and winter, with maximum near-surface concentrations exceeding 40 mg l−1 and increase by a factor from 10 to 18 in comparison with time-averaged concentrations. This temporal variability strongly depends on the granulometric distribution of suspended sediments characterized by local bi-modal contributions of silts and sands off coastal irregularities of the Isle of Wight, the Cotentin Peninsula and the southern Dover Strait.

INDICADORES SOCIOAMBIENTAIS PARA AVALIAÇÃO DE IMPACTO: SISTEMA ESPECIALISTA AMBIENTAL COMO INSTRUMENTO GESTÃO AMBIENTAL

This article aims to present the relation between the selected socio environmental indicators used to make the expert system environment (SEA) as tool for automate the process of viability consultation for implementation of new constructions, which tends to increase the agility of the public administration within the control of use and occupation of municipal land. The development of this tool is justified since the urban growth in most Brazilian cities has promoted sociospatial segregation, marginalization of the poor and degradation of natural environments. To elaborate the conceptual model of the SEA, the present study has selected socio environmental indicators and, also, has used parameters of environmental law and land use. For each indicator was determined a value that is measured by a checklist procedure and for the analysis of the legislation and crossed with the city’s basemap. Thus, it was made a connection between the characterizations of the environment versus the type of work in viability, resulting in a graph which allowed measuring the significant environmental impact. The implementation of the environmental modeling system encounters the instrumentalization of the municipal administration, which will feature modern land management tool.

Maintenance chain integration using Petri-net enabled multiagent system modeling and implementation approach

Engineering asset management (EAM) is a broad discipline and the EAM functions and processes are characterized by its distributed nature. However, engineering asset nowadays mostly relies on self-maintained experiential rule bases and periodic maintenance, which is lacking a collaborative engineering approach. This research proposes a collaborative environment integrated by a service center with domain expertise such as diagnosis, prognosis, and asset operations. The collaborative maintenance chain combines asset operation sites, service center (i.e., maintenance operation coordinator), system provider, first tier collaborators, and maintenance part suppliers. Meanwhile, to realize the automation of communication and negotiation among organizations, multiagent system (MAS) technique is applied to enhance the entire service level. During the MAS design processes, this research combines Prometheus MAS modeling approach with Petri-net modeling methodology and unified modeling language to visualize and rationalize the design processes of MAS. The major contributions of this research include developing a Petri-net enabled Prometheus MAS modeling methodology and constructing a collaborative agent-based maintenance chain framework for integrated EAM.

First steps towards modeling a multi-scale Earth system

Recent advances in computational geodynamics are applied to explore the link between Earth’s heat, its chemistry and its mechanical behavior. Computational thermal-mechanical solutions are now allowing us to understand Earth patterns by solving the basic physics of heat transfer. This approach is currently used to solve basic convection patterns of terrestrial planets. Applying the same methodology to smaller scales delivers promising similarities between observed and predicted structures which are often the site of mineral deposits. The new approach involves a fully coupled solution to the energy, momentum and continuity equations of the system at all scales, allowing the prediction of fractures, shear zones and other typical geological patterns out of a randomly perturbed initial state. The results of this approach are linking a global geodynamic mechanical framework over regional-scale mineral deposits down to the underlying micro-scale processes. Ongoing work includes the challenge of incorporating chemistry into the formulation.