Constraining uncertainty in regional hydrologic impacts of climate change: Nonstationarity in downscaling

Regional impacts of climate change remain subject to large uncertainties accumulating from various sources, including those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios, and downscaling methods. Objective constraints to reduce the uncertainty in regional predictions have proven elusive. In most studies to date the nature of the downscaling relationship (DSR) used for such regional predictions has been assumed to remain unchanged in a future climate. However,studies have shown that climate change may manifest in terms of changes in frequencies of occurrence of the leading modes of variability, and hence, stationarity of DSRs is not really a valid assumption in regional climate impact assessment. This work presents an uncertainty modeling framework where, in addition to GCM and scenario uncertainty, uncertainty in the nature of the DSR is explored by linking downscaling with changes in frequencies of such modes of natural variability. Future projections of the regional hydrologic variable obtained by training a conditional random field (CRF) model on each natural cluster are combined using the weighted Dempster-Shafer (D-S) theory of evidence combination. Each projection is weighted with the future projected frequency of occurrence of that cluster (''cluster linking'') and scaled by the GCM performance with respect to the associated cluster for the present period (''frequency scaling''). The D-S theory was chosen for its ability to express beliefs in some hypotheses, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The methodology is tested for predicting monsoon streamflow of the Mahanadi River at Hirakud Reservoir in Orissa, India. The results show an increasing probability of extreme, severe, and moderate droughts due to limate change. Significantly improved agreement between GCM predictions owing to cluster linking and frequency scaling is seen, suggesting that by linking regional impacts to natural regime frequencies, uncertainty in regional predictions can be realistically quantified. Additionally, by using a measure of GCM performance in simulating natural regimes, this uncertainty can be effectively constrained.

Hydrologic drought prediction under climate change: Uncertainty modeling with Dempster-Shafer and Bayesian approaches

Representation and quantification of uncertainty in climate change impact studies are a difficult task. Several sources of uncertainty arise in studies of hydrologic impacts of climate change, such as those due to choice of general circulation models (GCMs), scenarios and downscaling methods. Recently, much work has focused on uncertainty quantification and modeling in regional climate change impacts. In this paper, an uncertainty modeling framework is evaluated, which uses a generalized uncertainty measure to combine GCM, scenario and downscaling uncertainties. The Dempster-Shafer (D-S) evidence theory is used for representing and combining uncertainty from various sources. A significant advantage of the D-S framework over the traditional probabilistic approach is that it allows for the allocation of a probability mass to sets or intervals, and can hence handle both aleatory or stochastic uncertainty, and epistemic or subjective uncertainty. This paper shows how the D-S theory can be used to represent beliefs in some hypotheses such as hydrologic drought or wet conditions, describe uncertainty and ignorance in the system, and give a quantitative measurement of belief and plausibility in results. The D-S approach has been used in this work for information synthesis using various evidence combination rules having different conflict modeling approaches. A case study is presented for hydrologic drought prediction using downscaled streamflow in the Mahanadi River at Hirakud in Orissa, India. Projections of n most likely monsoon streamflow sequences are obtained from a conditional random field (CRF) downscaling model, using an ensemble of three GCMs for three scenarios, which are converted to monsoon standardized streamflow index (SSFI-4) series. This range is used to specify the basic probability assignment (bpa) for a Dempster-Shafer structure, which represents uncertainty associated with each of the SSFI-4 classifications. These uncertainties are then combined across GCMs and scenarios using various evidence combination rules given by the D-S theory. A Bayesian approach is also presented for this case study, which models the uncertainty in projected frequencies of SSFI-4 classifications by deriving a posterior distribution for the frequency of each classification, using an ensemble of GCMs and scenarios. Results from the D-S and Bayesian approaches are compared, and relative merits of each approach are discussed. Both approaches show an increasing probability of extreme, severe and moderate droughts and decreasing probability of normal and wet conditions in Orissa as a result of climate change. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-precision diode-laser-based temperature measurement for air refractive index compensation

We present a laser-based system to measure the refractive index of air over a long path length. In optical distance measurements it is essential to know the refractive index of air with high accuracy. Commonly, the refractive index of air is calculated from the properties of the ambient air using either Ciddor or Edlén equations, where the dominant uncertainty component is in most cases the air temperature. The method developed in this work utilises direct absorption spectroscopy of oxygen to measure the average temperature of air and of water vapor to measure relative humidity. The method allows measurement of temperature and humidity over the same beam path as in optical distance measurement, providing spatially well matching data. Indoor and outdoor measurements demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. In particular, we demonstrate an effective compensation of the refractive index of air in an interferometric length measurement at a time-variant and spatially non-homogenous temperature over a long time period. Further, we were able to demonstrate 7 mK RMS noise over a 67 m path length using 120 s sample time. To our knowledge, this is the best temperature precision reported for a spectroscopic temperature measurement.

Uncertainty Quantification in Ultrasonic Wave Based Detection of Delamination in Composite Structures

In this paper we consider the problem of guided wave scattering from delamination in laminated composite and further the problem of estimating delamination size and layer-wise location from the guided wave measurement. Damage location and region/size can be estimated from time of flight and wave packet spread, whereas depth information can be obtained from wavenumber modulation in the carrier packet. The key challenge is that these information are highly sensitive to various uncertainties. Variation in reflected and transmitted wave amplitude in a bar due to boundary/interface uncertainty is studied to illustrate such effect. Effect of uncertainty in material parameters on the time of flight are estimated for longitudinal wave propagation. To evaluate the effect of uncertainty in delamination detection, we employ a time domain spectral finite element (tSFEM) scheme where wave propagation is modeled using higher-order interpolation with shape function have spectral convergence properties. A laminated composite beam with layer-wise placement of delamination is considered in the simulation. Scattering due to the presence of delamination is analyzed. For a single delamination, two identical waveforms are created at the two fronts of the delamination, whereas waves in the two sub-laminates create two independent waveforms with different wavelengths. Scattering due to multiple delaminations in composite beam is studied.

Measurement of the neutron (^3He) spin structure function at low Q^2 : a connection between the Bjorken and Drell-Hearn-Gerasimov sum rules

The spin dependent cross sections, σT_1/2 and σT_3/2 , and asymmetries, A_∥ and A_⊥ for ³He have been measured at the Jefferson Lab's Hall A facility. The inclusive scattering process ³He(e,e)X was performed for initial beam energies ranging from 0.86 to 5.1 GeV, at a scattering angle of 15.5°. Data includes measurements from the quasielastic peak, resonance region, and the deep inelastic regime. An approximation for the extended Gerasimov-Drell-Hearn integral is presented at a 4-momentum transfer Q² of 0.2-1.0 GeV².

Also presented are results on the performance of the polarized ³He target. Polarization of ³He was achieved by the process of spin-exchange collisions with optically pumped rubidium vapor. The ³He polarization was monitored using the NMR technique of adiabatic fast passage (AFP). The average target polarization was approximately 35% and was determined to have a systematic uncertainty of roughly ±4% relative.

An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST), has been developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei in the charge range 3 ≤ Z ≤ 28 and the energy range between 30 and 800 MeV/nuc by employing an energy loss -- residual energy technique. Measurements of particle trajectories and energy losses are made using a multiwire proportional counter hodoscope and a stack of CsI(TI) crystal scintillators, respectively. A detailed analysis has been made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument.

Landau fluctuations set a fundamental limit on the attainable mass resolution, which for this instrument ranges between ~.07 AMU for z~3 and ~.2 AMU for z~2b. Contributions to the mass resolution due to uncertainties in measuring the path-length and energy losses of the detected particles are shown to degrade the overall mass resolution to between ~.1 AMU (z~3) and ~.3 AMU (z~2b).

A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, is developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. This purely secondary isotope is used as a tracer of secondary production during propagation. This technique is illustrated for the isotopes of the elements O, Ne, S, Ar and Ca.

The uncertainties in the derived source ratios due to errors in fragmentation and total inelastic cross sections, in observed spectral shapes, and in measured abundances are evaluated. It is shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances.

These results are applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Elements of Decision under Uncertainty with Applications

This work presents the basic elements for the analysis of decision under uncertainty: Expected Utility Theory and its citicisms and risk aversion and its measurement. The concepts of certainty equivalent, risk premium, absolute risk aversion and relative risk aversion, and the "more risk averse than" relation are discussed. The work is completed with several applications of decision making under uncertainty to different economic problems: investment in risky assets and portfolio selection, risk sharing, investment to reduce risk, insurance, taxes and income underreporting, deposit insurance and the value of information.

Measurement of liquid film thickness by optical fluorescence and its application to an oscillating piston positive displacement flowmeter

The movement of the circular piston in an oscillating piston positive displacement flowmeter is important in understanding the operation of the flowmeter, and the leakage of liquid past the piston plays a key role in the performance of the meter. The clearances between the piston and the chamber are small, typically less than 60 νm. In order to measure this film thickness a fluorescent dye was added to the water passing through the meter, which was illuminated with UV light. Visible light images were captured with a digital camera and analysed to give a measure of the film thickness with an uncertainty of less than 7%. It is known that this method lacks precision unless careful calibration is undertaken. Methods to achieve this are discussed in the paper. The grey level values for a range of film thicknesses were calibrated in situ with six dye concentrations to select the most appropriate one for the range of liquid film thickness. Data obtained for the oscillating piston flowmeter demonstrate the value of the fluorescence technique. The method is useful, inexpensive and straightforward and can be extended to other applications where measurement of liquid film thickness is required. © 2011 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Phase uncertainty in calibrating microwave test fixtures

The problem of phase uncertainty arising in calibration of the test fixtures is investigated in this paper, It is shown that the problem exists no matter what kinds of calibration standards are used. It is also found that there is no need to determine the individual S-parameters of the test fixtures. In order to eliminate the problem of phase uncertainty, three different precise (known) reflection standards or one known reflection standard plus one known transmission standard should be used to calibrate symmetrical test fixtures. For the asymmetrical cases, three known standards, including at least one transmission standard, should be used. The thru-open-match (TOM) and thru-short-match (TSM) techniques are the simplest methods, and they have no bandwidth limitation. When the standards are imprecise (unknown), it is recommended to use any suitable technique, such as the thru-reflect-line, line-reflect-line, thru-short-delay, thru-open-delay,line-reflect-match, line-reflect-reflect-match, or multiline methods, to accurately determine the values of the required calibration terms and, in addition, to use the TOM or TSM method with the same imprecise standards to resolve the phase uncertainty.

Study of remote sensing based parameter uncertainty in Production Efficiency Models

The remote sensing based Production Efficiency Models (PEMs), springs from the concept of "Light Use Efficiency" and has been applied more and more in estimating terrestrial Net Primary Productivity (NPP) regionally and globally. However, global NPP estimates vary greatly among different models in different data sources and handling methods. Because direct observation or measurement of NPP is unavailable at global scale, the precision and reliability of the models cannot be guaranteed. Though, there are ways to improve the accuracy of the models from input parameters. In this study, five remote sensing based PEMs have been compared: CASA, GLO-PEM, TURC, SDBM and VPM. We divided input parameters into three categories, and analyzed the uncertainty of (1) vegetation distribution, (2) fraction of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (fPAR) and (3) light use efficiency (e). Ground measurements of Hulunbeier typical grassland and meteorology measurements were introduced for accuracy evaluation. Results show that a real-time, more accurate vegetation distribution could significantly affect the accuracy of the models, since it's applied directly or indirectly in all models and affects other parameters simultaneously. Higher spatial and spectral resolution remote sensing data may reduce uncertainty of fPAR up to 51.3%, which is essential to improve model accuracy.

Measurement of ratios of fragmentation fractions for bottom hadrons in pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV

This paper describes the first measurement of b-quark fragmentation fractions into bottom hadrons in Run II of the Tevatron Collider at Fermilab. The result is based on a 360pb-1 sample of data collected with the CDF II detector in pp̄ collisions at s=1.96TeV. Semileptonic decays of B̄0, B-, and B̄s0 mesons, as well as Λb0 baryons, are reconstructed. For an effective bottom hadron pT threshold of 7GeV/c, the fragmentation fractions are measured to be fu/fd=1.054±0.018(stat)-0.045+0.025(sys)±0. 058(B), fs/(fu+fd)=0.160±0.005(stat)-0.010+0.011(sys)-0.034+0.057(B), and fΛb/(fu+fd)=0.281±0.012(stat)-0.056+0.058(sys)-0.087+0.128(B), where the uncertainty B is due to uncertainties on measured branching ratios. The value of fs/(fu+fd) agrees within one standard deviation with previous CDF measurements and the world average of this quantity, which is dominated by LEP measurements. However, the ratio fΛb/(fu+fd) is approximately twice the value previously measured at LEP. The approximately 2σ discrepancy is examined in terms of kinematic differences between the two production environments. © 2008 The American Physical Society.

Heat capacities of ionic liquids as a function of temperature at 0.1 MPa. measurement and prediction

Heat capacities of nine ionic liquids were measured from (293 to 358) K by using a heat flux differential scanning calorimeter. The impact of impurities (water and chloride content) in the ionic liquid was analyzed to estimate the overall uncertainty. The Joback method for predicting ideal gas heat capacities has been extended to ionic liquids by the generation of contribution parameters for three new groups. The principle of corresponding states has been employed to enable the subsequent calculation of liquid heat capacities for ionic liquids, based on critical properties predicted using the modified Lydersen-Joback-Reid method, as a function of the temperature from (256 to 470) K. A relative absolute deviation of 2.9% was observed when testing the model against 961 data points from 53 different ionic liquids reported previously and measured within this study.

Measurement and modelling of perceived slant in surfaces represented by freely viewed line drawings

Simple pictures under everyday viewing conditions evoke impressions of surfaces oriented in depth. These impressions have been studied by measuring the slants of perceived surfaces, with probes (rotating arrowheads) designed to respect the distinctive character of depicted scenes. Converging arguments indicated that the perceived orientation of the probes was near theoretical values. A series of experiments showed that subjects formed well-defined impressions of depicted surface orientation. The literature suggests that perceived objects might be flattened', but that was not the general rule. Instead, both mean slant and uncertainty fitted models in which slant estimates are derived in a relatively straightforward way from local relations in the picture. Simplifying pictures tended to make orientation estimates less certain, particularly away from the natural anchor points (vertical and horizontal). The shape of the object affected all aspects of the observed-object/percept relationship. Individual differences were large, and suggest that different individuals used different relationships as a basis for their estimates. Overall, data suggest that everyday picture perception is strongly selective and weakly integrative. In particular, depicted slant is estimated by finding a picture feature which will be strongly related to it if the object contains a particular regularity, not by additive integration of evidence from multiple directly and indirectly relevant sources.

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.