Free Flows, Limited Diversification: Explaining the Fall and Rise of Stock Market Correlations, 1890-2001

Using a new dataset on capital account openness, we investigate why equity return correlations changed over the last century. Based on a new, long-run dataset on capital account regulations in a group of 16 countries over the period 1890-2001, we show that correlations increase as financial markets are liberalized. These findings are robust to controlling for both the Forbes-Rigobon bias and global averages in equity return correlations. We test the robustness of our conclusions, and show that greater synchronization of fundamentals is not the main cause of increasing correlations. These results imply that the home bias puzzle may be smaller than traditionally claimed.

Limited clinical benefit of minority K103N and Y181C-variant detection in addition to routine genotypic resistance testing in antiretroviral therapy-naive patients.

OBJECTIVE: The presence of minority nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-resistant HIV-1 variants prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been linked to virologic failure in treatment-naive patients. DESIGN: We performed a large retrospective study to determine the number of treatment failures that could have been prevented by implementing minority drug-resistant HIV-1 variant analyses in ART-naïve patients in whom no NNRTI resistance mutations were detected by routine resistance testing. METHODS: Of 1608 patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, who have initiated first-line ART with two nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) and one NNRTI before July 2008, 519 patients were eligible by means of HIV-1 subtype, viral load and sample availability. Key NNRTI drug resistance mutations K103N and Y181C were measured by allele-specific PCR in 208 of 519 randomly chosen patients. RESULTS: Minority K103N and Y181C drug resistance mutations were detected in five out of 190 (2.6%) and 10 out of 201 (5%) patients, respectively. Focusing on 183 patients for whom virologic success or failure could be examined, virologic failure occurred in seven out of 183 (3.8%) patients; minority K103N and/or Y181C variants were present prior to ART initiation in only two of those patients. The NNRTI-containing, first-line ART was effective in 10 patients with preexisting minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant. CONCLUSION: As revealed in settings of case-control studies, minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variants can have an impact on ART. However, the implementation of minority NNRTI-resistant HIV-1 variant analysis in addition to genotypic resistance testing (GRT) cannot be recommended in routine clinical settings. Additional associated risk factors need to be discovered.

Microsatellites reveal high population viscosity and limited dispersal in the ant Formica paralugubris

We used microsatellites to study the fine-scale genetic structure of a highly polygynous and largely uni-colonial population of the ant Formica paralugubris. Genetic data indicate that long-distance gene flow between established nests is limited and new queens are primarily recruited from within their natal nest. Most matings occur between nestmates and are random at this level. In the center of the study area, budding and permanent connections between nests result in strong population viscosity, with close nests being more similar generically than distant nests. In contrast, nests located outside of this supercolony show no isolation by distance, suggesting that they have been initiated by queens that participated in mating flights rather than by budding from nearby nests in our sample population. Recruitment of nestmates as new reproductive individuals and population viscosity in the supercolony increase genetic differentiation between nests. This in turn inflates relatedness estimates among worker nestmates (r = 0.17) above what is due to close pedigree links. Local spatial genetic differentiation may favor the maintenance of altruism when workers raise queens that will disperse on foot and compete with less related queens from neighboring nests or disperse on the wing and compete with unrelated queens.

Competition, innovation and growth with limited commitment

We study how barriers to business start-up affect the investment in knowledge capital when contracts are not enforceable. Barriers to business start-up lower the competition for knowledge capital and, in absence of commitment, reduce the incentive to accumulate knowledge. As a result, countries with large barriers experience lower income and growth. Our results are consistent with cross-country evidence showing that the cost of business start-up is negatively correlated with the level and growth of income.

The benefits of limited feedback in organizations

In most firms, managers periodically assess workers' performance. Evidence suggeststhat managers withhold information during these reviews, and some observersargue that this necessarily reduces surplus. This paper assesses the validity of thisargument when workers have career concerns. Disclosure has two effects: it exposesthe worker to uncertainty about future effort levels, but allows him to use current effortto influence his employer's beliefs about future effort. The surplus-maximizingdisclosure policy reveals output realizations in the center of the distribution, butnot in the tails. Thus, it is efficient for firms to reveal some but not all performanceinformation.

Optimal negligence rule under limited liability

We study the standard economic model of unilateral accidents, in its simplest form, assumingthat the injurers have limited assets.We identify a second-best optimal rule that selects as duecare the minimum of first-best care, and a level of care that takes into account the wealth ofthe injurer. We show that such a rule in fact maximizes the precautionary effort by a potentialinjurer. The idea is counterintuitive: Being softer on an injurer, in terms of the required level ofcare, actually improves the incentives to take care when he is potentially insolvent. We extendthe basic result to an entire population of potentially insolvent injurers, and find that the optimalgeneral standards of care do depend on wealth, and distribution of income. We also show theconditions for the result that higher income levels in a given society call for higher levels of carefor accidents.

Aggregate consequences of limited contract enforceability

We study a general equilibrium model in which entrepreneurs finance investment with optimal financial contracts. Because of enforceability problems, contracts are constrained efficient. We show that limited enforceability amplifies the impact of technological innovations on aggregate output. More generally, we show that lower enforceability of contracts will be associated with greater aggregate volatility. A key assumption for this result is that defaulting entrepreneurs are not excluded from the market.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Limited genetic diversity and high differentiation among the remnant adder (Vipera berus) populations in the Swiss and French Jura Mountains

Although the adder (Vipera berus) has a large distribution area, this species is particularly threatened in Western Europe due to high habitat fragmentation and human persecution. We developed 13 new microsatellite markers in order to evaluate population structure and genetic diversity in the Swiss and French Jura Mountains, where the species is limited to only a few scattered populations. We found that V. berus exhibits a considerable genetic differentiation among populations (global F-ST = 0.269), even if these are not geographically isolated. Moreover, the genetic diversity within populations in the Jura Mountains and in the less perturbed Swiss Alps is significantly lower than in other French populations, possibly due to post-glacial recolonisation processes. Finally, in order to minimize losses of genetic diversities within isolated populations, suggestions for the conservation of this species in fragmented habitats are proposed.

Limited heterogeneity of autoantigens and T cells in autoimmune diseases?

For many induced and spontaneous autoimmune diseases, a predominant role for T cells in the organ-specific destruction process has been shown. In one of the induced models of autoimmunity, experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE), a very small heterogeneity of T-cell receptor (TcR) molecules is expressed by the pathogenic T cells in both rats and mice. Contrary to induced autoimmune diseases, little is known about the autoantigens recognized by these autoimmune T cells and the heterogeneity of their TcR in spontaneous autoimmune diseases. The aim of this work was to establish a system which allows characterization of relevant autoantigens in spontaneous insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) in non-obese diabetic (NOD) mice. A completely different approach was taken to characterize the gene products of the minor lymphocyte stimulatory (Mls) loci. These gene products are responsible for the clonal elimination or the clonal stimulation of T cells expressing particular TcR V beta genes and therefore could be implicated in induction of autoimmune diseases by oligoclonal T-cell populations. The finding that Mls antigens are encoded by retroviral sequences leads to the hypothesis that viruses could be the inducing agents of autoimmune diseases.

Sequential or concomitant chemotherapy in limited stage small-cell lung cancer.

PURPOSE: Chemotherapy (CT) combined with radiation therapy (RT) is the standard treatment for limited disease small-cell lung cancer (LDSCLC). Many questions including RT dose, fractionation, and sequence of RT/CT administration remain controversial. In this paper, we retrospectively assessed the outcome of patients with LDSCLC treated with radiation of at least 50 Gy.METHODS AND MATERIALS: From December 1997 to January 2006, 69 consecutive patients with LDSCLC were treated at our institutions. Treatment consisted of at least 4 cycles of CT, and 3D conformal thoracic RT. The median age was 61 years (range, 37-78 years). Sequential or concomitant CT/RT was given in 47 (68%) and 22 (32%) of the patients, respectively. The median RT dose was 60 Gy. Prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was administered in 47 (68%) patients.RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 36 months (range, 6-107), 16 patients were alive without disease. The median overall survival time was 24 months, with a 3-year survival rate of 29%. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and loco-regional control (LRC) rates were 23% and 60%, respectively. A better DFS was significantly associated with performance status (PS) 0 (p = 0.004), complete response to treatment (p = 0.03), and PCI group (p = 0.03). A trend towards improved overall survival (OS) was observed for patients who underwent PCI (p = 0.07). Patients treated with sequential CT/RT had a better outcome than those treated with concomitant treatment (3-year DFS rate 27% vs. 13%; p = 0.04). However, PCI was delivered more frequently for the sequential group. No significant dose-response relationship was found in terms of LRC. The multivariate analysis showed that complete response to treatment was the only significant factor for OS.CONCLUSION: Complete response to treatment was the most important factor for OS. A better DFS was significantly associated with the PCI group. We did not find a significant difference in outcome between patients receiving doses of 60 Gy or more and patients receiving 60 Gy or less.

In Vivo Persistence of Codominant Human CD8+ T Cell Clonotypes Is Not Limited by Replicative Senescence or Functional Alteration.

T cell responses to viral epitopes are often composed of a small number of codominant clonotypes. In this study, we show that tumor Ag-specific T cells can behave similarly. In a melanoma patient with a long lasting HLA-A2/NY-ESO-1-specific T cell response, reaching 10% of circulating CD8 T cells, we identified nine codominant clonotypes characterized by individual TCRs. These clonotypes made up almost the entire pool of highly differentiated effector cells, but only a fraction of the small pool of less differentiated "memory" cells, suggesting that the latter serve to maintain effector cells. The different clonotypes displayed full effector function and expressed TCRs with similar functional avidity. Nevertheless, some clonotypes increased, whereas others declined in numbers over the observation period of 6 years. One clonotype disappeared from circulating blood, but without preceding critical telomere shortening. In turn, clonotypes with increasing frequency had accelerated telomere shortening, correlating with strong in vivo proliferation. Interestingly, the final prevalence of the different T cell clonotypes in circulation was anticipated in a metastatic lymph node withdrawn 2 years earlier, suggesting in vivo clonotype selection driven by metastases. Together, these data provide novel insight in long term in vivo persistence of T cell clonotypes associated with continued cell turnover but not replicative senescence or functional alteration.