Centennial-scale climate change in Ireland during the Holocene

We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland. ©2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and decadal to centennial-scale periodicities recorded in a late Holocene NE Pacific marine record: Examining the role of solar forcing

We present a decadal-scale late Holocene climate record based on diatoms, biogenic silica, and grain size from a 12-m sediment core (VEC02A04) obtained from Frederick Sound in the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex of British Columbia, Canada. Sediments are characterized by graded, massive, and laminated intervals. Laminated intervals are most common between c. 2948–2708 cal. yr BP and c. 1992–1727 cal. yr BP. Increased preservation of laminated sediments and diatom assemblage changes at this time suggest that cli- mate became moderately drier and cooler relative to the preceding and succeeding intervals. Spectral and wavelet analyses are used to test for statistically significant periodicities in time series of proxies of primary production (total diatom abundance, biogenic silica) and hydrology (grain size) preserved in the Frederick Sound record. Periodicities of c. 42–53, 60–70, 82–89, 241–243, and 380 yrs are present. Results are com- pared to reconstructed sunspot number data of Solanki et al. (2004) using cross wavelet transform to evalu- ate the role of solar forcing on NE Pacific climate. Significant common power of periodicities between c. 42– 60, 70–89, 241–243, and of 380 yrs occur, suggesting that celestial forcing impacted late Holocene climate at Frederick Sound. Replication of the c. 241–243 yr periodicity in sunspot time series is most pronounced be- tween c. 2900 cal. yr BP and c. 2000 cal. yr BP, broadly correlative to the timing of maximum preservation of laminated sedimentary successions and diatom assemblage changes. High solar activity at the Suess/de Vries band may have been manifested as a prolonged westward shift and/or weakening of the Aleutian Low in the mid-late Holocene, which would have diverted fewer North Pacific storms and resulted in the relatively dry conditions reconstructed for the Seymour-Belize Inlet Complex.

Sea-level changes in Iceland and the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the last half millennium

We present a new, diatom-based sea-level reconstruction for Iceland spanning the last -500 years, and investigate the possible mechanisms driving the sea-level changes. A sea-level reconstruction from near the Icelandic low pressure system is important as it can improve understanding of ocean-atmosphere forcing on North Atlantic sea-level variability over multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Our reconstruction is from Viarhólmi salt marsh in Snæfellsnes in western Iceland, a site from where we previously obtained a 2000-yr record based upon less precise sea-level indicators (salt-marsh foraminifera). The 20th century part of our record is corroborated by tide-gauge data from Reykjavik. Overall, the new reconstruction shows ca0.6m rise of relative sea level during the last four centuries, of which ca0.2m occurred during the 20th century. Low-amplitude and high-frequency sea-level variability is super-imposed on the pre-industrial long-term rising trend of 0.65m per 1000 years. Most of the relative sea-level rise occurred in three distinct periods: AD 1620-1650, AD 1780-1850 and AD 1950-2000, with maximum rates of ~3±2mm/yr during the latter two of these periods. Maximum rates were achieved at the end of large shifts (from negative to positive) of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index as reconstructed from proxy data. Instrumental data demonstrate that a strong and sustained positive NAO (a deep Icelandic Low) generates setup on the west coast of Iceland resulting in rising sea levels. There is no strong evidence that the periods of rapid sea-level rise were caused by ocean mass changes, glacial isostatic adjustment or regional steric change. We suggest that wind forcing plays an important role in causing regional-scale coastal sea-level variability in the North Atlantic, not only on (multi-)annual timescales, but also on multi-decadal to centennial timescales.

Appropriate complexity for the prediction of coastal and estuarine geomorphic behaviour at decadal to centennial scales

Coastal and estuarine landforms provide a physical template that not only accommodates diverse ecosystem functions and human activities, but also mediates flood and erosion risks that are expected to increase with climate change. In this paper, we explore some of the issues associated with the conceptualisation and modelling of coastal morphological change at time and space scales relevant to managers and policy makers. Firstly, we revisit the question of how to define the most appropriate scales at which to seek quantitative predictions of landform change within an age defined by human interference with natural sediment systems and by the prospect of significant changes in climate and ocean forcing. Secondly, we consider the theoretical bases and conceptual frameworks for determining which processes are most important at a given scale of interest and the related problem of how to translate this understanding into models that are computationally feasible, retain a sound physical basis and demonstrate useful predictive skill. In particular, we explore the limitations of a primary scale approach and the extent to which these can be resolved with reference to the concept of the coastal tract and application of systems theory. Thirdly, we consider the importance of different styles of landform change and the need to resolve not only incremental evolution of morphology but also changes in the qualitative dynamics of a system and/or its gross morphological configuration. The extreme complexity and spatially distributed nature of landform systems means that quantitative prediction of future changes must necessarily be approached through mechanistic modelling of some form or another. Geomorphology has increasingly embraced so-called ‘reduced complexity’ models as a means of moving from an essentially reductionist focus on the mechanics of sediment transport towards a more synthesist view of landform evolution. However, there is little consensus on exactly what constitutes a reduced complexity model and the term itself is both misleading and, arguably, unhelpful. Accordingly, we synthesise a set of requirements for what might be termed ‘appropriate complexity modelling’ of quantitative coastal morphological change at scales commensurate with contemporary management and policy-making requirements: 1) The system being studied must be bounded with reference to the time and space scales at which behaviours of interest emerge and/or scientific or management problems arise; 2) model complexity and comprehensiveness must be appropriate to the problem at hand; 3) modellers should seek a priori insights into what kind of behaviours are likely to be evident at the scale of interest and the extent to which the behavioural validity of a model may be constrained by its underlying assumptions and its comprehensiveness; 4) informed by qualitative insights into likely dynamic behaviour, models should then be formulated with a view to resolving critical state changes; and 5) meso-scale modelling of coastal morphological change should reflect critically on the role of modelling and its relation to the observable world.

O Jornalismo Político Republicano Radical. O Mundo (1900‐1907)

Tese de Doutoramento em História Contemporânea Institucional e Política de Portugal

Recensão: Fukuko Ando et "Amaterasu". Exposition – performance

Recensão de: Fukuko Ando, "Amaterasu". Exposition – performance

Pièges dans l'interprétation de la pathologie infiltrative et de l'exposition à l'amiante.

Messages à retenir: L'identification des anomalies pleurales et parenchymateuses liées à une exposition à l'amiante est essentielle pour la reconnaissance de maladie professionnelle, avec de lourdes conséquences économiques. Le scanner thoracique est l'outil le plus fiable de ce dépistage. La détection d'anomalies dans les régions basales et sous-pleurales doit conduire à la réalisation de coupes complémentaires en procubitus sur ces régions. Le diagnostic TDM des anomalies pleurales et parenchymateuses liées à l'amiante repose sur des critères diagnostiques et un vocabulaire précis. De nombreuses images pièges peuvent mimer des plaques ou une asbestose. Une bonne connaissance de l'anatomie de l'interface pleuro-parenchymateuse et des principaux diagnostics différentiels permet souvent de redresser le diagnostic. Résumé: Le scanner multicoupe est l'outil de référence pour le dépistage des pathologies pleurales et parenchymateuses liées à l'exposition à l'amiante. Le diagnostic de plaques pleurales repose sur une surélévation quadrangulaire et nette de l'interface pleuro-parenchymateuse, dans une ou des localisation(s) évocatrice(s). Les pièges responsables de fausses images de plaques sont nombreux : structures anatomiques et variantes de la normale, opacités postéro-basales liées à des troubles ventilatoires, sarcoïdose... Les plaques doivent être différenciées des autres anomalies pleurales bénignes pouvant être rencontrées dans ce contexte, mais non spécifiques d'une exposition à l'amiante : épaississements pleuraux diffus, fibrose de la plèvre viscérale, images en pieds de corneille. La reconnaissance d'une asbestose nécessite de s'affranchir de troubles ventilatoires liés à la déclivité ou à des contraintes mécaniques focales, chroniques, telles que des ostéophytes para-vertébraux. Les coupes en procubitus permettent d'affirmer l'existence d'une pathologie interstitielle débutante dans les régions sous-pleurales et basales. Des anomalies interstitielles isolées ne peuvent être attribuées à une asbestose, de même que des anomalies interstitielles non spécifiques, associées ou non à une pathologie diffuse fibrosante.

Exposition

Soitinnus: kamariorkesteri.

Le Salon : feuilleton quotidien paraissant tous les soirs pendant les deux mois de l'exposition : causerie, critique générale, bruits et nouvelles du jour par Zacharie Astruc

1863/05/18 (N15).