Kiigazítás recesszió nélkül. Esettanulmány a magyar stabilizációról = Adjustment without recession: A Case Study of Hungarian Stabilization

1995. március 12-én a magyar kormány és a központi bank szigorú kiigazítási és stabilizációs programot hirdetett meg. A cikk az első eredmények számbavételére tesz kísérletet. A program meghirdetése előtt Magyarország két egymást követő év- ben hatalmas fizetésimérleg-hiányt mutatott fel, és nemzetközi megítélése romlani kezdett. A program radikális intézkedései nyomán elkerülhetővé vált a mexikói vál- sághoz hasonló pénzügyi katasztrófa. Sok makrogazdasági mutató jól érzékelhető javulást jelez: lényegesen csökkent a kereskedelmi mérleg és a folyó fizetési mérleg hiánya, a költségvetés elsődleges egyenlege pozitív lett. Az ilyesféle stabilizációs programokat rendszerint súlyos visszaesés és a munkanélküliség nagy növekedése kíséri. Magyarország elkerülte ezeket a mellékhatásokat: a GDP drasztikus vissza- esés helyett valamelyest tovább növekedett, és a munkanélküliség változatlan ma- radt. A javulásnak nagy ára volt: az életszínvonal erőteljes csökkenése, az infláció felgyorsulása, bár a magyarországi infláció még mindig a kézben tartott, mérsékelt infláció sávjában maradt. A cikk ismerteti a program heterodox módszereit: 1. nagy leértékelés, az előre meghirdetett csúszó árfolyam rezsimjének bevezetése, valamint ideiglenes import- vámpótlék kivetése; 2. határozott jövedelempolitika, amely 12 százalékos reálbércsök- kenést kényszerített ki; 3. fiskális intézkedések, köztük jóléti jogosultságok csök- kentése (a program meghirdetése előtt ezek a jogosultságok tabuk voltak); 4. a hitel- kínálat átcsoportosítása a vállalati szektor javára, a jövedelmezőség növekedése; 5. feszített (bár nem mértéktelenül feszített) monetáris politika, amely lehetővé tette a sikeres vállalatok expanzióját; 6. a privatizáció felgyorsítása, nagy és sikeres lépé- sek egyes kulcsszektorok (energia, telekommunikáció) privatizációjában. Végezetül a tanulmány óva int a túlzott magabiztosságtól és felhívja a figyelmet a potenciális veszélyekre. A makrogazdasági javulás még törékeny. A magyar fejlődés legbiztatóbb sajátossága a termelékenység erőteljes és folyamatos növekedése. / === / On March 12, 1995 Hungary s government and central bank announced a tough program of adjustment and stabilization. This study is an attempt to asses the first results. Before the announcement of the program Hungary had a huge current account deficit for two consecutive years, and her international reputation started to decline. The program s radical measures made it possible to avoid a Mexico-style financial catastrophe. Many macroeconomic indicators show tangible improvement: the trade deficit and the deficit on the current account have been reduced significantly, the primary budget shifted to surplus. These kinds of adjustment programs are usually associated with deep recession and a large increase of unemployment. Hungary avoided these adverse side-effects: GDP instead of a drastic decline, continued to grow somewhat, and unemployment remained unchanged. There was a high price for the improvement: a sharp decline in the standard of living, and an acceleration of inflation, although Hungary is still in the range of controlled, moderate inflation. The paper describes the heterodox instruments of the program: (1) large devaluation, followed by a new exchange rate regime of pre-announced crawling peg, and a temporary import surcharge, (2) energetic income policy, enforcing a 12% cut in real wages; (3) fiscal measures, including cuts in welfare entitlements. That happened for the first time: before the program entitlements had been regarded as taboo ; (4) reallocation of credit supply in favor of the enterprise sector; increase of profitability; (5) tight (but not excessively tight) monetary policy, allowing the expansion of successful private busi- ness; (6) acceleration of privatisation, including large and successful steps in the privatisation of some key sectors (energy, telecommunication). Finally the paper warns against excessive self- confidence and draws the attention to potential dangers. The macroeconomic improvement is still fragile. The most reassuring feature of Hungary s development is the impressive and persistent improvement of productivity.

EU-s források a vállalkozások tőkeellátottságának javítására - A JEREMIE Kockázati Tőkeprogram (EU funds to improve the capitalization of the companies – JEREMIE Venture Capital Program)

A hazai kis- és középvállalkozások (kkv-k) tőkeellátottságának javítása meghatározó szerepet játszik fejlődésük előmozdításában. Jelen tanulmány az Új Széchenyi Terv (ÚSZT) keretében a vállalkozások rendelkezésére álló pénzügyi eszközök közül a kockázati tőke működését mutatja be. A fejlődésük növekedési ciklusában járó cégek mellett a korai életszakaszukban járó, innovatív tevékenységet folytató, gyors növekedésre képes, de forráshiányos vállalkozások finanszírozásában nyújthat segítséget Magyarországon a 2010-ben elindult JEREMIE Kockázati Tőkeprogram. Az állami és a privát tulajdonban levő piaci szereplők hazánkban újnak mondható együttműködése révén megvalósuló program a magyar kockázatitőke-piac kínálati oldalának bővítését szolgálja, abban az alsó (döntően az 1-1,5 millió EUR/tranzakció alatti) szegmensben, ahol a tisztán piaci alapon működő befektetők korlátozottabb szerepvállalása figyelhető meg, és így a piacon hiány jelentkezik. Az EU-s támogatások ezen új típusú felhasználási formája színesíti és kibővíti a vállalkozások számára elérhető pénzügyi eszközök körét és volumenét, fokozottabb mértékben érvényesül a piaci szemlélet, hiszen verseny van a forrásokért, és verseny van a források kihelyezését végző pénzügyi közvetítő szervezetek között is, mindezek mellett további magánforrások bevonását biztosítja, ösztönzőleg hat a cégek működésére, és a visszaforgó rendszer biztosítja a fenntarthatóságot, a források későbbi újbóli felhasználását is. _______ To improve the capitalization of the domestic small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) has a decisive role in promoting development. This study presents the operation of venture capital from the available business financial instruments of the New Széchenyi Plan. In Hungary the JEREMIE Venture Capital Program, which launched in 2010, can help in financing of the rapidly growth, innovative, early life stage companies besides the development cycle of growth companies. This program with new cooperation between the stateowned and private companies enlarge the supply-side of the Hungarian venture capital market, at that the bottom (mostly in the 1 to 1.5 million EUR / transaction below) segment, where can be observed the limited role of the purely market-based investors, and thus there is a shortage in the market. These new type application form of the EU supports enriches and expands the scope and volume of the available financial instruments for the enterprises, the market orientation prevails more broadly, because there is a competition for resources and there is a competition between the resources allocation financial intermediaries,in addition ensures further private resources.

The ineffectiveness of multilateral sanctions regimes under globalization: The case of Iraq

This dissertation examines the effectiveness and limits of multilateral sanctions regimes as instruments of foreign policy, particularly when trying to prevent the acquisition, development and proliferation of weapons of mass destructions. I hypothesize that globalization undermines the overall effectiveness of sanctions regimes. I analyze the agents and means of globalization. Agents are nation-states, corporations, non-state actors and organizations, and individuals. Means are the global import-export industry, global banking and investment, global corporate models, and global manufacturing industries. They all have contributed to vast increases in transnational economic activity and, furthermore, to more political tensions between nation-states, all of which jeopardize the implementation and enforcement of multilateral sanctions regimes. ^ To test this thesis, I examine how those factors impacted the multilateral sanctions regime imposed against Iraq from 1991 to 2002. This multilateral sanctions regime was conceived, approved and enforced by most nations in the United Nations. ^ Indeed, evidence collected for this dissertation suggests that Iraq did manage to consistently circumvent the UN sanctions regime, and that it did it by astutely utilizing the agents and means of globalization. Evidence also indicates that Iraq managed to rebuild parts of its military infrastructure, and that Iraq was on its way to rebuild its missile capability, for which it purchased large quantities of parts, components, technologies and manpower in the global market.^

Development of DYNAMIX Policy Mixes - Deliverable 4.2, revised version, of the DYNAMIX project

This report documents the development of the initial dynamic policy mixes that were developed for assessment in the DYNAMIX project. The policy mixes were designed within three different policy areas: overarching policy, land-use and food, and metals and other materials. The policy areas were selected to address absolute decoupling in general and, specifically, the DYNAMIX targets related to the use of virgin metals, the use of arable land and freshwater, the input of the nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus, and emissions of greenhouse gases. Each policy mix was developed within a separate author team, using a common methodological framework that utilize previous findings in the project. Specific drivers and barriers for resource use and resource efficiency are discussed in each policy area. Specific policy objectives and targets are also discussed before the actual policy mix is presented. Each policy mix includes a set of key instruments, which can be embedded in a wider set of supporting and complementary policy instruments. All key instruments are described in the report through responses to a set of predefined questions. The overarching mix includes a broad variety of key instruments. The land-use policy mix emphasizes five instruments to improve food production through, for example, revisions of already existing policy documents. It also includes three instruments to influence the food consumption and food waste. The policy mix on metals and other materials primarily aims at reducing the use of virgin metals through increased recycling, increased material efficiency and environmentally justified material substitution. To avoid simply shifting of burdens, it includes several instruments of an overarching character.

Validação do Youth Quality of Life Instrument para a população portuguesa: YQOL-R

É incontornável o estatuto que o conceito de qualidade de vida assume hoje na prática e políticas de saúde pública. Na infância e adolescência é ainda escassa a investigação, tornando-se crucial o desenvolvimento de instrumentos de qualidade vida relacionada com a saúde validados para esta população. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo fundamental analisar as qualidades psicométricas e validar a versão portuguesa do Youth Quality of Life (YQOL-R) (Patrick, et al., 2002). A amostra é constituída por 507 adolescentes, com idades compreendidas entre os 12 e os 19 anos, a frequentar o 3º ciclo do ensino básio e ensino secundário de escolas públicas do ensino regular. Para além do citado instrumento a validar, os jovens preencheram também, para a análise da validade convergente e divergente, o Kidscreen-27 (Gaspar & Matos, 2008) e a Escala da Depressão, Ansiedade e Stresse (EADS-21) (Pais-Ribeiro, Honrado & Leal, 2004). Os resultados mostram que o YQOL-R apresenta uma estrutura fatorial de quatro fatores, semelhantes à versão original americana (individual, relações sociais, ambiente e qualidade de vida em geral). Possui uma boa consistência interna e uma adequada estabilidade temporal. Mostrou correlações significativas e no sentido esperado com as variáveis em estudo. Foram igualmente encontradas diferenças de género em relação à qualidade de vida, sendo os rapazes a reportarem em média níveis mais elevados de perceção da qualidade de vida, comparativamente às raparigas. Futuros estudos devem ser realizados em amostras clínicas para confirmação dos dados. Não obstante esta limitação, o presente estudo contribuiu para a disponibilização de um novo instrumento para avaliação da qualidade de vida em crianças e adolescentes, o qual evidenciou boas propriedade psicométricas, apoiando, assim empiricamente, a sua utilização nas práticas de saúde e investigação em amostras da comunidade. / Nowadays, it´s unavoidable the status that, the concept of quality of life assumes in practices and politics of public health. In childhood and adolescence it´s weak the investigation but it´s crucial the development of instruments of quality of life related to health validated to this population. The present work has an important aim, it´s analyze the psychometric qualities and validate the Portuguese version of Youth Quality of Life (YQOL-R) (Patrick, et al., 2002). The sample consists of 507 adolescents, aged between 12 and 19 years old and they attend the 3 rd cycle of basic education and secondary education schools in villages of regular education. Apart from that instrument, teenagers fill in, also, to the analysis convergent and divergent, the Kidscreen-27 (Gaspar & Matos, 2008) and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale (EADS-21) (Pais-Ribeiro, Honrado & Leal, 2004). The results show that the YQOL-R presents a factorial structure with four factors similar to original American version (individual, social relations, environment and general quality of life), presenting a good internal consistence and an adequate temporal stability. Substantial correlations showed and in the expected way with the variables in study. Have been found differences of gender related to quality of life, boys reported on average higher levels of quality of life perception, comparatively to the girls. Future studies must be performed in clinical samples to confirm the findings. In spite of this restriction, the actual study contributes to providing a new instrument to evaluate the quality of life in children and adolescents, this evidenced good psychometric properties, supported empirically its application in heath practices and investigation in community samples.

Multi-Disciplinary Applications of Oceanographic Geophysical Data Collection

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

The Return of Institutions. On the Latest Change in the Research on Social and Economic Development

The paper describes the latest change in the research on social and economic development of states. This change is characterized mainly by a strong emphasis put on the role of institutions as key instruments of reducing the development gap between countries. It is argued that in the years after 1989 institutions have disappeared from mainstream academia and major intellectual debates because of: (1) the widespread belief in global convergence of capitalism and (2) the modernization theory which prevailed in the social science in the 1990s. The article indicates that institutions were once again brought into focus as a result of (1) a wider debate about the institutional sources of growth and development sparked by Acemoglu and Robinson’s Why Nations Fail, (2) the beginning of the global economic crisis of 2008 triggered by the fall of American investment bank Lehman Brothers (3) diversified consequences of the economic crisis seen all over Europe and the USA which illustrate (4) the institutional varieties of capitalism.

Europeanization beyond the EU: The case of Georgia.

320 p.

Study of the impact federated erubrics on assessing competences in the practicum

Presentation Research of the Practicum and externships has a long history and involves important aspects for analysis. For example, the recent changes taking place in university grades allot more credits to the Practicum course in all grades, and the Company-University collaboration has exposed the need to study in new learning environments. The rise of ICT practices like ePortfolios, which require technological solutions and methods supported by experimentation, study and research, require particular examination due to the dynamic momentum of technological innovation. Tutoring the Practicum and externships requires remote monitoring and communication using ePortfolios, and competence-based assessment and students’ requirement to provide evidence of learning require the best tutoring methods available with ePortfolios. Among the elements of ePortfolios, eRubrics emerge as a tool for design, communication and competence-assessment. This project aims to consolidate a research line on eRubrics, already undertaken by another project -I+D+i [EDU2010-15432]- in order to expand the network of researchers and Centres of Excellence in Spain and other countries: Harvard University in USA, University of Cologne in Germany, University of Colima in Mexico, Federal University of Parana, University of Santa Catarina in Brasil, and Stockholm University in Sweden(1). This new project [EDU2013-41974-P](2) examines the impact of eRubrics on tutoring and on assessing the Practicum course and externships. Through technology, distance tutoring grants an extra dimension to human communication. New forms of teaching with technological mediation are on the rise and are highly valuable, not only for formal education but especially in both public and private sectors of non-formal education, such as occupational training, unemployed education and public servant training. Objectives Obj. 1. To analyse models of technology used in assessing learning in the Practicum of all grades at Spanish Faculties of Education. Obj. 2. To study models of learning assessment measured by eRubrics in the Practicum. Obj. 3. To analyse communication through eRubrics between students and their tutors at university and practice centres, focusing on students’ understanding of competences and evidences to be assessed in the Practicum. Obj. 4. To design assessment services and products, in order to federate companies and practice centres with training institutions. Among many other features, it has the following functions CoRubric(3) 1. The possibility to assess people, products or services by using rubrics. 2. Ipsative assessment. 3. Designing fully flexible rubrics. 4. Drafting reports and exporting results from eRubrics in a project. 5. Students and teachers talk about the evaluation and application of the criteria Methodology, Methods, Research Instruments or Sources Used The project will use techniques to collect and analyse data from two methodological approaches: 1. In order to meet the first objective, we suggest an initial exploratory descriptive study (Buendía Eisman, Colás Bravo & Hernández Pina, 1998), which involves conducting interviews with Practicum coordinators from all educational grades across Spain, as well as analysing the contents of the teaching guides used in all educational grades across Spain. 55 academic managers were interviewed from about 10 faculties of education in public universities in Spain (20%), and course guides 376 universities from 36 public institutions in Spain (72%) are analyzed. 2. In order to satisfy the second objective, 7 universities have been selected to implement the project two instruments aimed at tutors practice centers and tutors of the faculty. All instruments for collecting data were validated by experts using the Delphi method. The selection of experts had three aspects: years of professional experience, number and quality of publications in the field (Practicum, Educational Technology and Teacher Training), and self-rating of their knowledge. The resulting data was calculated using the Coefficient of Competence (Kcomp) (Martínez, Zúñiga, Sala & Meléndez, 2012). Results in all cases showed an average experience of more than 0.09 points. The two instruments of the first objective were validated during the first half of 2014-15 year, data collected during the second half. And the second objective during the first half of 2015-16 year and data collection for the second half. The set of four instruments (two for each objective 1 and 2) have the same dimensions as each of the sources (Coordinators, course guides, tutors of practice centers and faculty) as they were: a. Institution-Organization, b. Nature of internships, c. Relationship between agents, d. Management Practicum, e. Assessment. F. Technological support, g. Training and h. Assessment Ethics. Conclusions, Expected Outcomes or Findings The first results respond to Objective 1, where we find different conclusions depending on each of the six dimensions. In the case of internal regulations governing the organization and structure of the practicum, we note that most traditional degrees (Elementary and Primary grades) share common internal rules, in particular development methodology and criteria against other grades (Pedagogy and Social Education ). It is also true that the centers of practices in last cases are very different from each other and can be a public institution, a school, a company, a museum, etc. The memory with a 56.34% and 43.67% daily activities are more demands on students in all degrees, Lesson plans 28.18% 19.72% Portfolio 26.7% Didactic units and Others 32,4%. The technical support has been mainly used the platform of the University 47.89% and 57.75% Email, followed by other services and tools 9.86% and rubric platforms 1.41%. The assessment criteria are divided between formal aspects of 12.38%, Written expresión 12.38%, treatment of the subject 14.45%, methodological rigor of work 10.32%, and Level of argument Clarity and relevance of conclusions 10.32%. In general terms, we could say that there is a trend and debate between formative assessment against a accreditation. It has not yet had sufficient time to further study and confront other dimensions and sources of information. We hope to provide more analysis and conclusions in the conference date.

Descriptive analysis of the test of everyday attention for children in a Spanish normative sample

Introduction. Test of Everyday Attention for Children (TEA-Ch) has been validated in different countries demonstrating that it is an instrument with a correct balance between reliability and duration. Given the shortage of trustworthy instruments of evaluation in our language for infantile population we decide to explore the Spanish version of the TEA-Ch. Methods. We administered TEA-Ch (version A) to a sample control of 133 Spanish children from 6 to 11 years enrolled in school in the Community of Madrid. Four children were selected at random by course of Primary Education, distributing the sex of equivalent form. Descriptive analysis and comparison by ages and sex in each of the TEA-Ch's subtests were conducted to establish a profile of the sample. In order to analyze the effect of the age, subjects were grouped in six sub-samples: 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 years-old. Results. This first descriptive analysis demonstrates age exerted a significant effect on each measure, due to an important "jump" in children's performance between 6 and 7 years-old. The effect of sex was significant only in two visual attention measures (Sky Search & Map) and interaction age and sex exerted a significant effect only in the dual task (Score DT). Conclusions. The results suggest that the Spanish version of the TEA-Ch (A) might be a useful instrument to evaluate attentional processes in Spanish child population.

Metodos de avaliação em Educação Fisica no ensino fundamental

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Estudo da correlação entre coordenação motora e habilidades motoras de pessoas com sindrome de down

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Avaliação do autoconceito e a atividade fisica

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física

A ginastica nos cursos de licenciatura em educação fisica do Estado do Parana

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educação Física