994 resultados para Holt-Winters


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Memoir, 288 pages. An account of journeys made by the author from Australia to Iceland as a way of interrogating notions of cultural belonging, family, and homecoming. "In 1990, Kári Gíslason travelled to Iceland to meet his father for the first time. What he finds is not what he expected. Born from a secret liaison between a British mother and an Icelandic father, Kári Gíslason was the subject of a promise – a promise elicited from his father to not reveal his identity. The Icelandic city of Reykjavík, where Kári was born, was also home to his father and his father’s wife and five children – none of whom knew of Kári’s existence. Moving regularly between Iceland and Australia, he grew up aware of his father’s identity, but understanding that it was the subject of a secret pact between his parents. At the age of 27, he makes a decision to break the pact and contacts his father’s other family. What follows, and what leads him there, makes for a riveting journey over landscapes, time and memory. Kári travels from the freezing cold winters of Iceland to the shark net at Sydney’s Balmoral, an unsettled life in the English countryside and the harsh yellow summer of Brisbane, and back again. He traces the steps of his mother who answered an ad in The Times for an English-speaking secretary in 1970 and found herself in Iceland among the ‘Army of Foreign Secretaries’, and in the arms of a secret lover. Iceland becomes the substitute for the father Kári never really knew as he discovers the meaning of ‘home’ and closes the circle of his own fatherless life."-- publisher website

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We compare the consistency of choices in two methods to used elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We asked subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decision between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that while on an aggregate(subject pool) level the results are (roughly) consistent, on an individual(within-subject) level,behavior is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low correlations. This again questions the reliability of experimental risk elicitation measures and the ability to use results from such methods to control for the risk aversion of subjects when explaining e�ects in other experimental games.

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As the use of fiducial markers (FMs) for the localisation of the prostate during external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) has become part of routine practice, radiation therapists (RTs) have become increasingly responsible for online image interpretation. The aim of this investigation was to quantify the limits of agreement (LoA) between RTs when localising to FMs with orthogonal kilovoltage (kV) imaging. Methods Six patients receiving prostate EBRT utilising FMs were included in this study. Treatment localisation was performed using kV imaging prior to each fraction. Online stereoscopic assessment of FMs, performed by the treating RTs, was compared with the offline assessment by three RTs. Observer agreement was determined by pairwise Bland-Altman analysis. Results Stereoscopic analysis of 225 image pairs was performed online at the time of treatment, and offline by three RT observers. Eighteen pairwise Bland-Altman analyses were completed to assess the level of agreement between observers. Localisation by RTs was found to be within clinically acceptable 95% LoAs. Conclusions Small differences between RTs, in both the online and offline setting, were found to be within clinically acceptable limits. RTs were able to make consistent and reliable judgements when matching FMs on planar kV imaging.

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We performed an integrated genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic characterization of 373 endometrial carcinomas using array- and sequencing-based technologies. Uterine serous tumours and ∼25% of high-grade endometrioid tumours had extensive copy number alterations, few DNA methylation changes, low oestrogen receptor/progesterone receptor levels, and frequent TP53 mutations. Most endometrioid tumours had few copy number alterations or TP53 mutations, but frequent mutations in PTEN, CTNNB1, PIK3CA, ARID1A and KRAS and novel mutations in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodelling complex gene ARID5B. A subset of endometrioid tumours that we identified had a markedly increased transversion mutation frequency and newly identified hotspot mutations in POLE. Our results classified endometrial cancers into four categories: POLE ultramutated, microsatellite instability hypermutated, copy-number low, and copy-number high. Uterine serous carcinomas share genomic features with ovarian serous and basal-like breast carcinomas. We demonstrated that the genomic features of endometrial carcinomas permit a reclassification that may affect post-surgical adjuvant treatment for women with aggressive tumours.

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This paper documents a preliminary investigation into the relationship between neurodiversity and the built environment using a pilot project developed with Logan City Council and engaging candidates within the Master of Urban Design at the Queensland University of Technology. The research begins to examine the way many places are designed and built can be alienating and inhibit accessibility to people with movement and sensory differences. Logan Central has been used as a case study area to map the physical attributes, and identify barriers and challenges in the built environment – specifically for people with disabilities but also taking in consideration the wider population. The integration of all individuals – mainstream, those with disability, differences and multigenerational populations – strengthens the social and economic fabric of Australia, enabling its citizens to live healthy, productive, and fulfilling lives.

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The Beyond Compliance project, which began in July 2011 with funding from the Standards and Trade Development Facility for 2 years, aims to enhance competency and confidence in the South East Asian sub-region by applying a Systems Approach for pest risk management. The Systems Approach involves the use of integrated measures, at least two of which are independent, that cumulatively reduce the risk of introducing exotic pests through trade. Although useful in circumstances where single measures are inappropriate or unavailable, the Systems Approach is inherently more complicated than single-measure approaches, which may inhibit its uptake. The project methodology is to take prototype decision-support tools, such as Control Point-Bayesian Networks (CP-BN), developed in recent plant health initiatives in other regions, including the European PRATIQUE project, and to refine them within this sub-regional context. Case studies of high-priority potential agricultural trade will be conducted by National Plant Protection Organizations of participating South East Asian countries in trials of the tools, before further modifications. Longer term outcomes may include: more robust pest risk management in the region (for exports and imports); greater inclusion of stakeholders in development of pest risk management plans; increased confidence in trade negotiations; and new opportunities for trade.

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We compare the consistency of choices in two methods used to elicit risk preferences on an aggregate as well as on an individual level. We ask subjects to choose twice from a list of nine decisions between two lotteries, as introduced by Holt and Laury (2002, 2005) alternating with nine decisions using the budget approach introduced by Andreoni and Harbaugh (2009). We find that, while on an aggregate (subject pool) level the results are consistent, on an individual (within-subject) level, behaviour is far from consistent. Within each method as well as across methods we observe low (simple and rank) correlations.

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This paper explores the impact that extreme weather events can have on communities. Using the Brisbane floods of 2011 to examine the recovery operations, the paper highlights the effectiveness of recovery and rebuilding in already strong and resilient communities. Our research has shown that communities which have a strong sense of identity, as well as organized places to meet, develop resilient networks that come into play in times of crisis. The increasing trend of the fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) or drive-in/drive-out (DIDO) workforce to service regional areas has undermined the resilience of existing communities. The first hint of this occurs with community groups not knowing who their neighbours are. The paper is based on research examining the needs of groups in regional communities with the goal to better equip regional communities with the capacity to respond positively to change (and crisis) through in-novative, evidence-based policies, resilience strategies and tools. Part of this process was to build an evidence-base to address a range of challenges associated with the place-based environments and the sharing of information systems within communities and decision makers. The first part of the paper explores the context in which communities have been required to mobilize in response to crises; the issues that have galvanized a common purpose; and the methods by which these communities shared their knowledge. The second part of the paper examines how communities could plan for and mitigate natural disasters in the future by developing better decision making tools. The paper defines the requirements for information systems that will link data models of built infrastruc-ture with data from the disaster and response plans. These will then form the basis for the use of social media to coordinate activities between official crews and the public to improve response coordination and provide the technology that could reduce the time required to allow communities to resume some semblance of normality.

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Musculoskeletal health can be compromised by breast cancer treatment. In particular, bone loss and arthralgias are prevalent side effects experienced by women treated with chemotherapy and/or adjuvant endocrine therapy. Bone loss leads to osteoporosis and related fractures, while arthralgias threaten quality of life and compliance to treatment. Because the processes that lead to these musculoskeletal problems are initiated when treatment begins, early identification of women who may be at higher risk of developing problems, routine monitoring of bone density and pain at certain stages of treatment, and prudent application of therapeutic interventions are key to preventing and/or minimizing musculoskeletal sequelae. Exercise may be a particularly suitable intervention strategy because of its potential to address a number of impairments; it may slow bone loss, appears to reduce joint pain in noncancer conditions, and improves other breast cancer outcomes. Research efforts continue in the areas of etiology, measurement, and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the current knowledge on the management and treatment of bone loss and arthralgias in breast cancer survivors and to present a framework for rehabilitation care to preserve musculoskeletal health in women treated for breast cancer.

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The woodland strawberry, Fragaria vesca (2n = 2x = 14), is a versatile experimental plant system. This diminutive herbaceous perennial has a small genome (240 Mb), is amenable to genetic transformation and shares substantial sequence identity with the cultivated strawberry (Fragaria Ã- ananassa) and other economically important rosaceous plants. Here we report the draft F. vesca genome, which was sequenced to ×-39 coverage using second-generation technology, assembled de novo and then anchored to the genetic linkage map into seven pseudochromosomes. This diploid strawberry sequence lacks the large genome duplications seen in other rosids. Gene prediction modeling identified 34,809 genes, with most being supported by transcriptome mapping. Genes critical to valuable horticultural traits including flavor, nutritional value and flowering time were identified. Macrosyntenic relationships between Fragaria and Prunus predict a hypothetical ancestral Rosaceae genome that had nine chromosomes. New phylogenetic analysis of 154 protein-coding genes suggests that assignment of Populus to Malvidae, rather than Fabidae, is warranted.

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Budbreak in kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa) can be poor in locations that have warm winters with insufficient winter chilling. Kiwifruit vines are often treated with the dormancy-breaking chemical hydrogen cyanamide (HC) to increase and synchronize budbreak. This treatment also offers a tool to understand the processes involved in budbreak. A genomics approach is presented here to increase our understanding of budbreak in kiwifruit. Most genes identified following HC application appear to be associated with responses to stress, but a number of genes appear to be associated with the reactivation of growth. Three patterns of gene expression were identified: Profile 1, an HC-induced transient activation; Profile 2, an HC-induced transient activation followed by a growth-related activation; and Profile 3, HC- and growth-repressed. One group of genes that was rapidly up-regulated in response to HC was the glutathione S-transferase (GST) class of genes, which have been associated with stress and signalling. Previous budbreak studies, in three other species, also report up-regulated GST expression. Phylogenetic analysis of these GSTs showed that they clustered into two sub-clades, suggesting a strong correlation between their expression and budbreak across species.

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Objective: To examine the effects of personal and community characteristics, specifically race and rurality, on lengths of state psychiatric hospital and community stays using maximum likelihood survival analysis with a special emphasis on change over a ten year period of time. Data Sources: We used the administrative data of the Virginia Department of Mental Health, Mental Retardation, and Substance Abuse Services (DMHMRSAS) from 1982-1991 and the Area Resources File (ARF). Given these two sources, we constructed a history file for each individual who entered the state psychiatric system over the ten year period. Histories included demographic, treatment, and community characteristics. Study Design: We used a longitudinal, population-based design with maximum likelihood estimation of survival models. We presented a random effects model with unobserved heterogeneity that was independent of observed covariates. The key dependent variables were lengths of inpatient stay and subsequent length of community stay. Explanatory variables measured personal, diagnostic, and community characteristics, as well as controls for calendar time. Data Collection: This study used secondary, administrative, and health planning data. Principal Findings: African-American clients leave the community more quickly than whites. After controlling for other characteristics, however, race does not affect hospital length of stay. Rurality does not affect length of community stays once other personal and community characteristics are controlled for. However, people from rural areas have longer hospital stays even after controlling for personal and community characteristics. The effects of time are significantly smaller than expected. Diagnostic composition effects and a decrease in the rate of first inpatient admissions explain part of this reduced impact of time. We also find strong evidence for the existence of unobserved heterogeneity in both types of stays and adjust for this in our final models. Conclusions: Our results show that information on client characteristics available from inpatient stay records is useful in predicting not only the length of inpatient stay but also the length of the subsequent community stay. This information can be used to target increased discharge planning for those at risk of more rapid readmission to inpatient care. Correlation across observed and unobserved factors affecting length of stay has significant effects on the measurement of relationships between individual factors and lengths of stay. Thus, it is important to control for both observed and unobserved factors in estimation.

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An approach is proposed and applied to five industries to prove how phenomenology can be valuable in rethinking consumer markets (Popp & Holt, 2013). The purpose of this essay is to highlight the potential implications that 'phenomenological thinking' brings for competitiveness and innovation (Sanders, 1982), hence helping managers being more innovative in their strategic marketing decisions (i.e. market creation, positioning, branding). Phenomenology is in fact a way of thinking − besides and before being a qualitative research procedure − a very practical exercise that strategic managers can master and apply in the same successful way as other scientists have already done in their fields of study (e.g. sociology, psychology, psychiatry, and anthropology). Two fundamental considerations justify this research: a lack of distinctiveness among firms due to high levels of competition and consumers no longer knowing what they want (i.e. no more needs). The authors will show how the classical mental framework generally used to study markets by practitioners appears on the one hand to be established and systematic in the life of a company, while on the other is no longer adequate to meet the needs of innovation required to survive. To the classic principles of objectivity, generality, and psycho-sociology the authors counterpose the imaginary, eidetic-phenomenological reduction, and an existential perspective. From a theoretical point of view, this paper introduces a set of functioning rules applicable to achieve innovation in any market and useful to identify cultural practices inherent in the act of consumption.