Investigating global tropical cyclone activity with a hierarchy of AGCMs: the role of model resolution

The ability to run General Circulation Models (GCMs) at ever-higher horizontal resolutions has meant that tropical cyclone simulations are increasingly credible. A hierarchy of atmosphere-only GCMs, based on the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1), with horizontal resolution increasing from approximately 270km to 60km (at 50N), is used to systematically investigate the impact of spatial resolution on the simulation of global tropical cyclone activity, independent of model formulation. Tropical cyclones are extracted from ensemble simulations and reanalyses of comparable resolutions using a feature-tracking algorithm. Resolution is critical for simulating storm intensity and convergence to observed storm intensities is not achieved with the model hierarchy. Resolution is less critical for simulating the annual number of tropical cyclones and their geographical distribution, which are well captured at resolutions of 135km or higher, particularly for Northern Hemisphere basins. Simulating the interannual variability of storm occurrence requires resolutions of 100km or higher; however, the level of skill is basin dependent. Higher resolution GCMs are increasingly able to capture the interannual variability of the large-scale environmental conditions that contribute to tropical cyclogenesis. Different environmental factors contribute to the interannual variability of tropical cyclones in the different basins: in the North Atlantic basin the vertical wind shear, potential intensity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant, while in the North Pacific basins mid-level relative humidity and low-level absolute vorticity are dominant. Model resolution is crucial for a realistic simulation of tropical cyclone behaviour, and high-resolution GCMs are found to be valuable tools for investigating the global location and frequency of tropical cyclones.

Analysis of precipitation climatology simulated by high resolution coupled global models over the South America

The results of coupled high resolution global models (CGCMs) over South America are discussed. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulations, with horizontal resolution of ~90 and 135 km, respectively, are compared. Precipitation estimations from CMAP (Climate Prediction Center—Merged Analysis of Precipitation), CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) are used for validation. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulated seasonal mean precipitation spatial patterns similar to the CMAP. The positioning and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and of the Pacific and Atlantic subtropical highs are correctly simulated by the models. In HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2, the intensity and locations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone are in agreement with the observed dataset. The simulated annual cycles are in phase with estimations of rainfall for most of the six regions considered. An important result is that HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 eliminate a common problem of coarse resolution CGCMs, which is the simulation of a semiannual cycle of precipitation due to the semiannual solar forcing. Comparatively, the use of high resolution in HiGEM1.2 reduces the dry biases in the central part of Brazil during austral winter and spring and in most part of the year over an oceanic box in eastern Uruguay.

When rules and principles are not enough: insiders’ views and narratives on the global financial crisis

Much has been written about Wall Street and the global financial crisis (GFC). From a fraudulent derivatives market to a contestable culture of banking bonuses, culpability has been examined within the frames of American praxis, namely that of American exceptionalism. This study begins with an exploratory analysis of non-US voices concerning the nature of the causes of the GFC. The analysis provides glimpses of the globalized extent of assumptions shared, but not debated within the globalization convergence of financial markets as the neo-liberal project. Practical and paradigmatic tensions are revealed in the capture of a London-based set of views articulated by senior financial executives of financial service organizations, the outcomes of which are not overly optimistic for any significant change in praxis within the immediate future.

Tropical cyclones in the UPSCALE ensemble of high resolution global climate models

The UPSCALE (UK on PRACE: weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk) project, using PRACE (Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe) resources, constructed and ran an ensemble of atmosphere-only global climate model simulations, using the Met Office Unified Model GA3 configuration. Each simulation is 27 years in length for both the present climate and an end-of-century future climate, at resolutions of N96 (130 km), N216 (60 km) and N512 (25 km), in order to study the impact of model resolution on high impact climate features such as tropical cyclones. Increased model resolution is found to improve the simulated frequency of explicitly tracked tropical cyclones, and correlations of interannual variability in the North Atlantic and North West Pacific lie between 0.6 and 0.75. Improvements in the deficit of genesis in the eastern North Atlantic as resolution increases appear to be related to the representation of African Easterly Waves and the African Easterly Jet. However, the intensity of the modelled tropical cyclones as measured by 10 m wind speed remain weak, and there is no indication of convergence over this range of resolutions. In the future climate ensemble, there is a reduction of 50% in the frequency of Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, while in the Northern Hemisphere there is a reduction in the North Atlantic, and a shift in the Pacific with peak intensities becoming more common in the Central Pacific. There is also a change in tropical cyclone intensities, with the future climate having fewer weak storms and proportionally more stronger storms

IPCC global coupled model simulations of the South America monsoon system

This study examines the variability of the South America monsoon system (SAMS) over tropical South America (SA). The onset, end, and total rainfall during the summer monsoon are investigated using precipitation pentad estimates from the global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) 1979-2006. Likewise, the variability of SAMS characteristics is examined in ten Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global coupled climate models in the twentieth century (1981-2000) and in a future scenario of global change (A1B) (2081-2100). It is shown that most IPCC models misrepresent the intertropical convergence zone and therefore do not capture the actual annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and northwest SA. Most models can correctly represent the spatiotemporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in central and eastern Brazil such as the correct phase of dry and wet seasons, onset dates, duration of rainy season and total accumulated precipitation during the summer monsoon for the twentieth century runs. Nevertheless, poor representation of the total monsoonal precipitation over the Amazon and northeast Brazil is observed in a large majority of the models. Overall, MI-ROC3.2-hires, MIROC3.2-medres and MRI-CGCM3.2.3 show the most realistic representation of SAMS`s characteristics such as onset, duration, total monsoonal precipitation, and its interannual variability. On the other hand, ECHAM5, GFDL-CM2.0 and GFDL-CM2.1 have the least realistic representation of the same characteristics. For the A1B scenario the most coherent feature observed in the IPCC models is a reduction in precipitation over central-eastern Brazil during the summer monsoon, comparatively with the present climate. The IPCC models do not indicate statistically significant changes in SAMS onset and demise dates for the same scenario.

CONTINUITY OF GLOBAL ATTRACTORS FOR A CLASS OF NON LOCAL EVOLUTION EQUATIONS

In this work we prove that the global attractors for the flow of the equation partial derivative m(r, t)/partial derivative t = -m(r, t) + g(beta J * m(r, t) + beta h), h, beta >= 0, are continuous with respect to the parameters h and beta if one assumes a property implying normal hyperbolicity for its (families of) equilibria.

A global knowledge economy? Biopolitical strategies in India and the European Union

This article critiques the notion of a cross-national convergence of institutional and policy responses to science-based technologies. The continued significance of institutional legacies is demonstrated through a comparative analysis of strategies for the biopharma industry in two radically different settings: India and the European Union (EU). Tensions are evident in both the EU ‘high’ route and the mixed strategy pursued in India. State promotion of biopharma is seen in India as a pathway to economic development, framed by a vision of India as a global power. Here, the ‘low’ route of cost advantages is combined with a ‘global’ rhetoric of innovation, modeled on US experience, and uneven forays into advanced R&D. The pursuit of product innovation was reinforced by India’s adoption of TRIPS-mandated intellectual property rights. In the EU, the aim is an integrated policy and regulatory approach to sustain and legitimize European integration, with the ultimate intent of overtaking the USA.

Blockbusters for the youtube generation : a new product of convergence culture

While scholars have paid much attention to YouTube in a Web 2.0 environment, the YouTube blockbuster is yet to be discussed as part of this convergence culture. It differs from transmedia storytelling in that no single company owns or controls the characters or concepts. Once users have elevated videos with rich narrative qualities to the heights of fame within YouTube and other virtual social networks, they are taken from the YouTube archive by global commercial media and given new exchange values in traditional media forms such as books, films, television shows and ancillary products, using fragmented classical narrative techniques to do so. This paper traces the history of the blockbuster as a way of large commercial media adapting to social and technological change after World War II, to its refinements in the 1970s to cater for younger audiences and changes in the media landscape, to its most recent incarnation in YouTube. We argue that the economic and cultural values of the blockbuster are being transformed and refigured by the new form it has begun to take within convergence culture.

Global optimization approach for the H2-norm model reduction problem

A branch and bound algorithm is proposed to solve the H2-norm model reduction problem for continuous-time linear systems, with conditions assuring convergence to the global optimum in finite time. The lower and upper bounds used in the optimization procedure are obtained through Linear Matrix Inequalities formulations. Examples illustrate the results.

Otimização global para os problemas de redução H2 de modelos e redução H2 da ordem do controlador

A branch and bound algorithm is proposed to solve the H2-norm model reduction problem and the H2-norm controller reduction problem, with conditions assuring convergence to the global optimum in finite time. The lower and upper bounds used in the optimization procedure are obtained through linear matrix inequalities formulations. Examples illustrate the results.

Global optimization for the ℋ∞-norm model reduction problem

A branch and bound algorithm is proposed to solve the [image omitted]-norm model reduction problem for continuous and discrete-time linear systems, with convergence to the global optimum in a finite time. The lower and upper bounds in the optimization procedure are described by linear matrix inequalities (LMI). Also proposed are two methods with which to reduce the convergence time of the branch and bound algorithm: the first one uses the Hankel singular values as a sufficient condition to stop the algorithm, providing to the method a fast convergence to the global optimum. The second one assumes that the reduced model is in the controllable or observable canonical form. The [image omitted]-norm of the error between the original model and the reduced model is considered. Examples illustrate the application of the proposed method.

Opportunities for convergence and regional cooperation: Unity Summit of Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes Bibliography

Opportunities for Convergence and Regional Cooperation. Summary of proposals

Includes bibliography

A new frontier for Caribbean convergence: integration without borders

Today, forty years since its birth, the Caribbean integration has reached its limit.1 2 Consequently, there is urgent need to respond to the current realities and emerging global trends — which require greater engagement from the public, students, academics and policymakers — in moving the Caribbean Community towards a new trajectory of Caribbean convergence. The immediate concern is to devise ways of improving the convergence process among Latin American and Caribbean countries. This convergence process will have to be sensitive to both current and emerging global dynamics. This paper presents the roadmap of a new trajectory towards Caribbean convergence, sensitive to both current and emergent regional and global trends. It begins in Section I by identifying the emerging international political and economic trends that provide a backdrop against which the discussion on Caribbean convergence is squarely placed. Section II discusses the need for a new strategy of convergence, and provides the conceptual framework of Caribbean convergence. Section III spells out the pillars, strategies and delivery mechanisms of Caribbean convergence, and highlights the role of Trinidad and Tobago in this process. The paper concludes by pointing out the urgent need for a regional synergy of economic logic and political logic.