A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Cold periods and coronary events: an analysis of populations worldwide

Study objective: To investigate the association between cold periods and coronary events, and the extent to which climate, sex, age, and previous cardiac history increase risk during cold weather. Design: A hierarchical analyses of populations from the World Health Organisation's MONICA project. Setting: Twenty four populations from the WHO's MONICA project, a 21 country register made between 1980 and 1995. Patients: People aged 35 - 64 years who had a coronary event. Main results: Daily rates of coronary events were correlated with the average temperature over the current and previous three days. In cold periods, coronary event rates increased more in populations living in warm climates than in populations living in cold climates, where the increases were slight. The increase was greater in women than in men, especially in warm climates. On average, the odds for women having an event in the cold periods were 1.07 higher than the odds for men (95% posterior interval: 1.03 to 1.11). The effects of cold periods were similar in those with and without a history of a previous myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Rates of coronary events increased during comparatively cold periods, especially in warm climates. The smaller increases in colder climates suggest that some events in warmer climates are preventable. It is suggested that people living in warm climates, particularly women, should keep warm on cold days.

A Hard Bargain? A cost-benefit analysis of an improved cookstove program in India

In developing countries, access to modern energy for cooking and heating still remains a challenge to raising households out of poverty. About 2.5 billion people depend on solid fuels such as biomass, wood, charcoal and animal dung. The use of solid fuels has negative outcomes for health, the environment and economic development (Universal Energy Access, UNDP). In low income countries, 1.3 million deaths occur due to indoor smoke or air pollution from burning solid fuels in small, confined and unventilated kitchens or homes. In addition, pollutants such as black carbon, methane and ozone, emitted when burning inefficient fuels, are responsible for a fraction of the climate change and air pollution. There are international efforts to promote the use of clean cookstoves in developing countries but limited evidence on the economic benefits of such distribution programs. This study undertook a systematic economic evaluation of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves to rural households in India. The evaluation examined the effect of different levels of subsidies on the net benefits to the household and to society. This paper answers the question, “Ex post, what are the economic benefits to various stakeholders of a program that distributed subsidized improved cookstoves?” In addressing this question, the evaluation used empirical data from India applied to a cost-benefit model to examine how subsidies affect the costs and the benefits of the biomass improved cookstove and the electric improved cookstove to different stakeholders.

Design and development of a diagonal-airflow batch dryer for spatial drying homogeneity

Das Verfahren der Lebensmitteltrocknung wird häufig angewendet, um ein Produkt für längere Zeit haltbar zu machen. Obst und Gemüse sind aufgrund ihres hohen Wassergehalts leicht verderblich durch biochemische Vorgänge innerhalb des Produktes, nicht sachgemäße Lagerung und unzureichende Transportmöglichkeiten. Um solche Verluste zu vermeiden wird die direkte Trocknung eingesetzt, welche die älteste Methode zum langfristigen haltbarmachen ist. Diese Methode ist jedoch veraltet und kann den heutigen Herausforderungen nicht gerecht werden. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde ein neuer Chargentrockner, mit diagonalem Luftstömungskanal entlang der Länge des Trocknungsraumes und ohne Leitbleche entwickelt. Neben dem unbestreitbaren Nutzen der Verwendung von Leitblechen, erhöhen diese jedoch die Konstruktionskosten und führen auch zu einer Erhöhung des Druckverlustes. Dadurch wird im Trocknungsprozess mehr Energie verbraucht. Um eine räumlich gleichmäßige Trocknung ohne Leitbleche zu erreichen, wurden die Lebensmittelbehälter diagonal entlang der Länge des Trockners platziert. Das vorrangige Ziel des diagonalen Kanals war, die einströmende, warme Luft gleichmäßig auf das gesamte Produkt auszurichten. Die Simulation des Luftstroms wurde mit ANSYS-Fluent in der ANSYS Workbench Plattform durchgeführt. Zwei verschiedene Geometrien der Trocknungskammer, diagonal und nicht diagonal, wurden modelliert und die Ergebnisse für eine gleichmäßige Luftverteilung aus dem diagonalen Luftströmungsdesign erhalten. Es wurde eine Reihe von Experimenten durchgeführt, um das Design zu bewerten. Kartoffelscheiben dienten als Trocknungsgut. Die statistischen Ergebnisse zeigen einen guten Korrelationskoeffizienten für die Luftstromverteilung (87,09%) zwischen dem durchschnittlich vorhergesagten und der durchschnittlichen gemessenen Strömungsgeschwindigkeit. Um den Effekt der gleichmäßigen Luftverteilung auf die Veränderung der Qualität zu bewerten, wurde die Farbe des Produktes, entlang der gesamten Länge der Trocknungskammer kontaktfrei im on-line-Verfahren bestimmt. Zu diesem Zweck wurde eine Imaging-Box, bestehend aus Kamera und Beleuchtung entwickelt. Räumliche Unterschiede dieses Qualitätsparameters wurden als Kriterium gewählt, um die gleichmäßige Trocknungsqualität in der Trocknungskammer zu bewerten. Entscheidend beim Lebensmittel-Chargentrockner ist sein Energieverbrauch. Dafür wurden thermodynamische Analysen des Trockners durchgeführt. Die Energieeffizienz des Systems wurde unter den gewählten Trocknungsbedingungen mit 50,16% kalkuliert. Die durchschnittlich genutzten Energie in Form von Elektrizität zur Herstellung von 1kg getrockneter Kartoffeln wurde mit weniger als 16,24 MJ/kg und weniger als 4,78 MJ/kg Wasser zum verdampfen bei einer sehr hohen Temperatur von jeweils 65°C und Scheibendicken von 5mm kalkuliert. Die Energie- und Exergieanalysen für diagonale Chargentrockner wurden zudem mit denen anderer Chargentrockner verglichen. Die Auswahl von Trocknungstemperatur, Massenflussrate der Trocknungsluft, Trocknerkapazität und Heiztyp sind die wichtigen Parameter zur Bewertung der genutzten Energie von Chargentrocknern. Die Entwicklung des diagonalen Chargentrockners ist eine nützliche und effektive Möglichkeit um dei Trocknungshomogenität zu erhöhen. Das Design erlaubt es, das gesamte Produkt in der Trocknungskammer gleichmäßigen Luftverhältnissen auszusetzen, statt die Luft von einer Horde zur nächsten zu leiten.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioral, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990–2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Prevalencia e incidencia de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté, y georeferenciación de casos 2010-2014

Introducción: El Cáncer es prevenible en algunos casos, si se evita la exposición a sustancias cancerígenas en el medio ambiente. En Colombia, Cundinamarca es uno de los departamentos con mayores incrementos en la tasa de mortalidad y en el municipio de Sibaté, habitantes han manifestado preocupación por el incremento de la enfermedad. En el campo de la salud ambiental mundial, la georreferenciación aplicada al estudio de fenómenos en salud, ha tenido éxito con resultados válidos. El estudio propuso usar herramientas de información geográfica, para generar análisis de tiempo y espacio que hicieran visible el comportamiento del cáncer en Sibaté y sustentaran hipótesis de influencias ambientales sobre concentraciones de casos. Objetivo: Obtener incidencia y prevalencia de casos de cáncer en habitantes de Sibaté y georreferenciar los casos en un periodo de 5 años, con base en indagación de registros. Metodología: Estudio exploratorio descriptivo de corte transversal,sobre todos los diagnósticos de cáncer entre los años 2010 a 2014, encontrados en los archivos de la Secretaria de Salud municipal. Se incluyeron unicamente quienes tuvieron residencia permanente en el municipio y fueron diagnosticados con cáncer entre los años de 2010 a 2104. Sobre cada caso se obtuvo género, edad, estrato socioeconómico, nivel académico, ocupación y estado civil. Para el análisis de tiempo se usó la fecha de diagnóstico y para el análisis de espacio, la dirección de residencia, tipo de cáncer y coordenada geográfica. Se generaron coordenadas geográficas con un equipo GPS Garmin y se crearon mapas con los puntos de la ubicación de las viviendas de los pacientes. Se proceso la información, con Epi Info 7 Resultados: Se encontraron 107 casos de cáncer registrados en la Secretaria de Salud de Sibaté, 66 mujeres, 41 hombres. Sin división de género, el 30.93% de la población presento cáncer del sistema reproductor, el 18,56% digestivo y el 17,53% tegumentario. Se presentaron 2 grandes casos de agrupaciones espaciales en el territorio estudiado, una en el Barrio Pablo Neruda con 12 (21,05%) casos y en el casco Urbano de Sibaté con 38 (66,67%) casos. Conclusión: Se corroboro que el análisis geográfico con variables espacio temporales y de exposición, puede ser la herramienta para generar hipótesis sobre asociaciones de casos de cáncer con factores ambientales.

An integrated approach to supporting land-use decisions in site redevelopment for urban renewal in Hong Kong

Urban renewal is a significant issue in developed urban areas, with a particular problem for urban planners being redevelopment of land to meet demand whilst ensuring compatibility with existing land use. This paper presents a geographic information systems (GIS)-based decision support tool (called LUDS) to quantitatively assess land-use suitability for site redevelopment in urban renewal areas. This consists of a model for the suitability analysis and an affiliated land-information database for residential, commercial, industrial, G/I/C (government/institution/community) and open space land uses. Development has occurred with support from interviews with industry experts, focus group meetings and an experimental trial, combined with several advanced techniques and tools, including GIS data processing and spatial analysis, multi-criterion analysis, as well as the AHP method for constructing the model and database. As demonstrated in the trial, LUDS assists planners in making land-use decisions and supports the planning process in assessing urban land-use suitability for site redevelopment. Moreover, it facilitates public consultation (participatory planning) by providing stakeholders with an explicit understanding of planners' views.

Infrastructure, investment and development evaluation: A Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping approach for improving local and regional economic development outcomes

Partial evaluation of infrastructure investments have resulted in expensive mistakes, unsatisfactory outcomes and increased uncertainties for too many stakeholders, communities and economies in both developing and developed nations. "Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping" (CSPM), is a novel approach that can address existing limitations by inclusively framing, capturing and mapping the spectrum of insights and perceptions using extended Geographic Information Systems. Maps generated in CSPM offer presentations of flexibly combined, complex perceptions of stakeholders on multiple aspects of development. CSPM extends the applications of GIS software in non-spatial mapping and of Multi-Criteria Analysis with a multidimensional evaluation platform and augments decision science capabilities in addressing complexities. Application of CSPM can improve local and regional economic gains from infrastructure projects and aid any multi-objective and multi-stakeholder decision situations.

金川矿山岩体移动规律及竖井变形、破坏机理研究

The Jinchuan Nickel Mine is the largest underground mine with cut-and-fill mining in China. It is very difficult to be exploited for very low safety stability of rock mass caused by complex geological conditions, developed faults, cracked rock mass and high stress. In this paper, the laws of rock mass movement、mechanics of shaft deformation and destroy were analyzed based on the collection of date, the detailed field engineering investigations, ground movement monitoring by GPS, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. According to the GPS monitoring result of ground surface movement, there are different ground movement characteristics among the three Mine area of Jinchuan Nickel Mine. In No. 2 Mine area, the ground movement funnel with apparent asymmetry is developing, the influence scope is larger in the up faulted block than in the down faulted block, and the centre of ground movement is moving along the up faulted block direction with increasing depth of mining. Moreover, the tunnels in the corresponding area with the centre of ground movement are damaged seriously. In Longshou Mine area, the ground movement funnel is also developing, but the moving path and the nonlinear characters are more sophisticated because of the long-term effects of open excavating and the effects of underground mining together. In No. 3 Mine area, the underground mining impact on surface is not serious for the time of mining activity is not for long, but the ground movement funnel is also forming now. The underground mining has caused widespread land subsidence in Jinchuan Nickel Mine area, but the phenomena of surface raise appeared in some partial areas of Longshou Mine area and No. 3 Mine area. Analysis proved that the reason for the open pit bottom raise is the slope deformation activation caused by the excavation from open pit into underground mine; and that the raise of surface in No.3 Mine area is caused by the effect of elastic foundation due to underground mining. Although the GPS Monitoring results show the amount of subsidence is increasing constantly, the subsidence rate has a descending tendency with fluctuation in Jinchuan No. 2 Mine area. The subsidence rate curve is a time function and exists an extreme point, the rate increasing before extreme point and decreasing after the extreme point ,but the scale of decreasing rate will be very small after the rate decreasing up to a certain degree, moreover, the characteristics is different among different areas, which have some relation with the distance to the mining section and the dip of the ore body. ArcView is GIS software, which we adopted as a development platform, and made secondary development by its development language “avenue”, through which we developed a ground movement analysis and forecast System for Jinchuan Nickel Mine, which contain three modules : management of ground movement information; analysis and evaluation of ground movement; and ground movement forecast. In the module of evaluation, using the technique of MATLAB6.5 program with VB6.0, the system can achieve the ANN prediction model for GPS monitoring data, data preparation results analysis and model integrated was realized by Avenue programming. Finally, the author analyzed the mechanical of deformation and destroy of the No. 14 shaft, and its repair and artificial-support effectiveness also given detailed demonstration in various aspect. The result showed that the reason for the destroy of No. 14 shaft is underground mining, and being the case, the destroy of the shaft also has its special features, which mainly contains forked stress contour for mining steep ore and fault effect caused by mining activities. The repair and artificial-support played some restrictions on the rock mass movement and deformation, but did not show a strong or marked effect. With the increasing of mining depth and large-scale, the closure rock of the shaft will still deformed, even be destroyed.

A Neural Theory of Attentive Visual Search: Interactions of Boundary, Surface, Spatial, and Object Representations

Visual search data are given a unified quantitative explanation by a model of how spatial maps in the parietal cortex and object recognition categories in the inferotemporal cortex deploy attentional resources as they reciprocally interact with visual representations in the prestriate cortex. The model visual representations arc organized into multiple boundary and surface representations. Visual search in the model is initiated by organizing multiple items that lie within a given boundary or surface representation into a candidate search grouping. These items arc compared with object recognition categories to test for matches or mismatches. Mismatches can trigger deeper searches and recursive selection of new groupings until a target object io identified. This search model is algorithmically specified to quantitatively simulate search data using a single set of parameters, as well as to qualitatively explain a still larger data base, including data of Aks and Enns (1992), Bravo and Blake (1990), Chellazzi, Miller, Duncan, and Desimone (1993), Egeth, Viri, and Garbart (1984), Cohen and Ivry (1991), Enno and Rensink (1990), He and Nakayarna (1992), Humphreys, Quinlan, and Riddoch (1989), Mordkoff, Yantis, and Egeth (1990), Nakayama and Silverman (1986), Treisman and Gelade (1980), Treisman and Sato (1990), Wolfe, Cave, and Franzel (1989), and Wolfe and Friedman-Hill (1992). The model hereby provides an alternative to recent variations on the Feature Integration and Guided Search models, and grounds the analysis of visual search in neural models of preattentive vision, attentive object learning and categorization, and attentive spatial localization and orientation.

Monitoring the vegetation start of season (SOS) across the island of Ireland using the MERIS global vegetation index

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology, based on satellite remote sensing, to estimate the vegetation Start of Season (SOS) across the whole island of Ireland on an annual basis. This growing body of research is known as Land Surface Phenology (LSP) monitoring. The SOS was estimated for each year from a 7-year time series of 10-day composited, 1.2 km reduced resolution MERIS Global Vegetation Index (MGVI) data from 2003 to 2009, using the time series analysis software, TIMESAT. The selection of a 10-day composite period was guided by in-situ observations of leaf unfolding and cloud cover at representative point locations on the island. The MGVI time series was smoothed and the SOS metric extracted at a point corresponding to 20% of the seasonal MGVI amplitude. The SOS metric was extracted on a per pixel basis and gridded for national scale coverage. There were consistent spatial patterns in the SOS grids which were replicated on an annual basis and were qualitatively linked to variation in landcover. Analysis revealed that three statistically separable groups of CORINE Land Cover (CLC) classes could be derived from differences in the SOS, namely agricultural and forest land cover types, peat bogs, and natural and semi-natural vegetation types. These groups demonstrated that managed vegetation, e.g. pastures has a significantly earlier SOS than in unmanaged vegetation e.g. natural grasslands. There was also interannual spatio-temporal variability in the SOS. Such variability was highlighted in a series of anomaly grids showing variation from the 7-year mean SOS. An initial climate analysis indicated that an anomalously cold winter and spring in 2005/2006, linked to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index value, delayed the 2006 SOS countrywide, while in other years the SOS anomalies showed more complex variation. A correlation study using air temperature as a climate variable revealed the spatial complexity of the air temperature-SOS relationship across the Republic of Ireland as the timing of maximum correlation varied from November to April depending on location. The SOS was found to occur earlier due to warmer winters in the Southeast while it was later with warmer winters in the Northwest. The inverse pattern emerged in the spatial patterns of the spring correlates. This contrasting pattern would appear to be linked to vegetation management as arable cropping is typically practiced in the southeast while there is mixed agriculture and mostly pastures to the west. Therefore, land use as well as air temperature appears to be an important determinant of national scale patterns in the SOS. The TIMESAT tool formed a crucial component of the estimation of SOS across the country in all seven years as it minimised the negative impact of noise and data dropouts in the MGVI time series by applying a smoothing algorithm. The extracted SOS metric was sensitive to temporal and spatial variation in land surface vegetation seasonality while the spatial patterns in the gridded SOS estimates aligned with those in landcover type. The methodology can be extended for a longer time series of FAPAR as MERIS will be replaced by the ESA Sentinel mission in 2013, while the availability of full resolution (300m) MERIS FAPAR and equivalent sensor products holds the possibility of monitoring finer scale seasonality variation. This study has shown the utility of the SOS metric as an indicator of spatiotemporal variability in vegetation phenology, as well as a correlate of other environmental variables such as air temperature. However, the satellite-based method is not seen as a replacement of ground-based observations, but rather as a complementary approach to studying vegetation phenology at the national scale. In future, the method can be extended to extract other metrics of the seasonal cycle in order to gain a more comprehensive view of seasonal vegetation development.

A method of assessing air toxics concentrations in urban areas using mobile platform measurements.

The objective of this paper is to demonstrate an approach to characterize the spatial variability in ambient air concentrations using mobile platform measurements. This approach may be useful for air toxics assessments in Environmental Justice applications, epidemiological studies, and environmental health risk assessments. In this study, we developed and applied a method to characterize air toxics concentrations in urban areas using results of the recently conducted field study in Wilmington, DE. Mobile measurements were collected over a 4- x 4-km area of downtown Wilmington for three components: formaldehyde (representative of volatile organic compounds and also photochemically reactive pollutants), aerosol size distribution (representing fine particulate matter), and water-soluble hexavalent chromium (representative of toxic metals). These measurements were,used to construct spatial and temporal distributions of air toxics in the area that show a very strong temporal variability, both diurnally and seasonally. An analysis of spatial variability indicates that all pollutants varied significantly by location, which suggests potential impact of local sources. From the comparison with measurements at the central monitoring site, we conclude that formaldehyde and fine particulates show a positive correlation with temperature, which could also be the reason that photochemically generated formaldehyde and fine particulates over the study area correlate well with the fine particulate matter measured at the central site.

Fast subplasma membrane Ca2+ transients control exo-endocytosis of synaptic-like microvesicles in astrocytes

Astrocytes are the most abundant glial cell type in the brain. Although not apposite for long-range rapid electrical communication, astrocytes share with neurons the capacity of chemical signaling via Ca(2+)-dependent transmitter exocytosis. Despite this recent finding, little is known about the specific properties of regulated secretion and vesicle recycling in astrocytes. Important differences may exist with the neuronal exocytosis, starting from the fact that stimulus-secretion coupling in astrocytes is voltage independent, mediated by G-protein-coupled receptors and the release of Ca(2+) from internal stores. Elucidating the spatiotemporal properties of astrocytic exo-endocytosis is, therefore, of primary importance for understanding the mode of communication of these cells and their role in brain signaling. We here take advantage of fluorescent tools recently developed for studying recycling of glutamatergic vesicles at synapses (Voglmaier et al., 2006; Balaji and Ryan, 2007); we combine epifluorescence and total internal reflection fluorescence imaging to investigate with unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution, the stimulus-secretion coupling underlying exo-endocytosis of glutamatergic synaptic-like microvesicles (SLMVs) in astrocytes. Our main findings indicate that (1) exo-endocytosis in astrocytes proceeds with a time course on the millisecond time scale (tau(exocytosis) = 0.24 +/- 0.017 s; tau(endocytosis) = 0.26 +/- 0.03 s) and (2) exocytosis is controlled by local Ca(2+) microdomains. We identified submicrometer cytosolic compartments delimited by endoplasmic reticulum tubuli reaching beneath the plasma membrane and containing SLMVs at which fast (time-to-peak, approximately 50 ms) Ca(2+) events occurred in precise spatial-temporal correlation with exocytic fusion events. Overall, the above characteristics of transmitter exocytosis from astrocytes support a role of this process in fast synaptic modulation.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).