Análise do risco de ocorrência da monilíase em cacaueiro no Brasil face às mudanças climáticas globais

The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence and the impacts of climate change on this disease in the coming decades, should this pathogen be introduced in Brazil. To this end, climate favorability maps were devised for the occurrence of moniliasis, both for the present and future time. The future scenarios (A2 and B2) focused on the decades of 2020, 2050 and 2080. These scenarios were obtained from six global climate models (GCMs) made available by the third assessment report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Currently, there are large areas with favorable climate conditions for moniliasis in Brazil, especially in regions at high risk of introduction of that pathogen. Considering the global warming scenarios provided by the IPCC, the potential risk of moniliasis occurrence in Brazil will be reduced. This decrease is predicted for both future scenarios, but will occur more sharply in scenario A2. However, there will still be areas with favorable climate conditions for the development of the disease, particularly in Brazil's main producing regions. Moreover, pathogen and host alike may undergo alterations due to climate change, which will affect the extent of their impacts on this pathosystem.

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdos-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure -systemic risk- quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold T-h ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller T-h), the smaller the systemic risk -for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p(2) -a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochasticthe- systemic risk decreases with decreasing p(2). We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2014

Networking: the "making of" social networks. A closer look at the process and antecedents of some resourcing-oriented behaviors in organizations.

Social networks are one of the “hot” themes in people’s life and contemporary social research. Considering our “embeddedness” in a thick web of social relations is a study perspective that could unveil a number of explanations of how people may manage their personal and social resources. Looking at people’s behaviors of building and managing their social networks, seems to be an effective way to find some possible rationalization about how to help people getting the best from their resources . The main aim of this dissertation is to give a closer look at the role of networking behaviors. Antecedents, motivations, different steps and measures about networking behaviors and outcomes are analyzed and discussed. Results seem to confirm, in a different setting and time perspective, that networking behaviors include different types and goals that change over time. Effects of networking behaviors seem to find empirical confirmation through social network analysis methods. Both personality and situational self-efficacy seem to predict networking behaviors. Different types of motivational drivers seem to be related to diverse networking behaviors.

Combining Wireless Sensor Networks and Machine Learning for Flash Flood Nowcasting

This paper addresses an investigation with machine learning (ML) classification techniques to assist in the problem of flash flood now casting. We have been attempting to build a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) to collect measurements from a river located in an urban area. The machine learning classification methods were investigated with the aim of allowing flash flood now casting, which in turn allows the WSN to give alerts to the local population. We have evaluated several types of ML taking account of the different now casting stages (i.e. Number of future time steps to forecast). We have also evaluated different data representation to be used as input of the ML techniques. The results show that different data representation can lead to results significantly better for different stages of now casting.

Bicentenario, identidad y cambio lingüístico : El sistema verbal de referencia temporal futura en San Juan, Argentina, durante el siglo XIX

En este trabajo enmarcado en la teoría funcional variacionista que relaciona forma, motivación y cultura, pretendemos mostrar cómo el hablante del siglo XIX en San Juan, Argentina, alterna en sus cartas familiares formas lingüísticas sintéticas y perifrásticas para referenciar el futuro, según sus propósitos comunicativos. El corpus, constituido por cartas escritas entre 1837 y 1889, se inserta en el 'siglo de las independencias políticas y las creaciones de los nuevos estados, en que comienza a gestarse la lucha por la identidad en América Latina' (Majfud, 2002). Consideramos que las construcciones alternantes no equivalen entre sí sintáctica, semántica ni pragmáticamente, siendo favorecidas por ciertos parámetros, de los cuales analizamos aquel por el cual creemos entró la innovación de la perífrasis 'ir a + infinitivo'. Adherimos al hecho de que 'las explicaciones funcionales de los cambios lingüísticos no excluyen, sino que implican, las explicaciones culturales' (Coseriu, 1977). Esta aproximación pragmática al uso lingüístico exige un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo a la vez. 'Importará no sólo qué estructuras contiene la lengua, sino también, cuándo se recurre a ellas y, sobre todo, cuánto se recurre cuándo a qué estructura' (García, 1995)

La formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico

Este artículo presenta una propuesta para la formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico. 1) La conciencia histórica-temporal relacionada con la temporalidad humana, el cambio y el poder sobre el tiempo futuro. 2) La representación de la historia, como la narración y la explicación histórica, para la reconstrucción del pasado. 3) La imaginación histórica, como la empatía y la contextualización, unidas a la formación del pensamiento crítico y creativo, y el juicio moral en la historia. 4) La interpretación histórica basada en el análisis de les fuentes históricas, en la comparación o contraste de textos históricos, y en el conocimiento del proceso de trabajo de la ciencia histórica. Nuestra propuesta de formación del pensamiento histórico está relacionada con la formación democrática de la ciudadanía

Bicentenario, identidad y cambio lingüístico : El sistema verbal de referencia temporal futura en San Juan, Argentina, durante el siglo XIX

En este trabajo enmarcado en la teoría funcional variacionista que relaciona forma, motivación y cultura, pretendemos mostrar cómo el hablante del siglo XIX en San Juan, Argentina, alterna en sus cartas familiares formas lingüísticas sintéticas y perifrásticas para referenciar el futuro, según sus propósitos comunicativos. El corpus, constituido por cartas escritas entre 1837 y 1889, se inserta en el 'siglo de las independencias políticas y las creaciones de los nuevos estados, en que comienza a gestarse la lucha por la identidad en América Latina' (Majfud, 2002). Consideramos que las construcciones alternantes no equivalen entre sí sintáctica, semántica ni pragmáticamente, siendo favorecidas por ciertos parámetros, de los cuales analizamos aquel por el cual creemos entró la innovación de la perífrasis 'ir a + infinitivo'. Adherimos al hecho de que 'las explicaciones funcionales de los cambios lingüísticos no excluyen, sino que implican, las explicaciones culturales' (Coseriu, 1977). Esta aproximación pragmática al uso lingüístico exige un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo a la vez. 'Importará no sólo qué estructuras contiene la lengua, sino también, cuándo se recurre a ellas y, sobre todo, cuánto se recurre cuándo a qué estructura' (García, 1995)

La formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico

Este artículo presenta una propuesta para la formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico. 1) La conciencia histórica-temporal relacionada con la temporalidad humana, el cambio y el poder sobre el tiempo futuro. 2) La representación de la historia, como la narración y la explicación histórica, para la reconstrucción del pasado. 3) La imaginación histórica, como la empatía y la contextualización, unidas a la formación del pensamiento crítico y creativo, y el juicio moral en la historia. 4) La interpretación histórica basada en el análisis de les fuentes históricas, en la comparación o contraste de textos históricos, y en el conocimiento del proceso de trabajo de la ciencia histórica. Nuestra propuesta de formación del pensamiento histórico está relacionada con la formación democrática de la ciudadanía

Bicentenario, identidad y cambio lingüístico : El sistema verbal de referencia temporal futura en San Juan, Argentina, durante el siglo XIX

En este trabajo enmarcado en la teoría funcional variacionista que relaciona forma, motivación y cultura, pretendemos mostrar cómo el hablante del siglo XIX en San Juan, Argentina, alterna en sus cartas familiares formas lingüísticas sintéticas y perifrásticas para referenciar el futuro, según sus propósitos comunicativos. El corpus, constituido por cartas escritas entre 1837 y 1889, se inserta en el 'siglo de las independencias políticas y las creaciones de los nuevos estados, en que comienza a gestarse la lucha por la identidad en América Latina' (Majfud, 2002). Consideramos que las construcciones alternantes no equivalen entre sí sintáctica, semántica ni pragmáticamente, siendo favorecidas por ciertos parámetros, de los cuales analizamos aquel por el cual creemos entró la innovación de la perífrasis 'ir a + infinitivo'. Adherimos al hecho de que 'las explicaciones funcionales de los cambios lingüísticos no excluyen, sino que implican, las explicaciones culturales' (Coseriu, 1977). Esta aproximación pragmática al uso lingüístico exige un análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo a la vez. 'Importará no sólo qué estructuras contiene la lengua, sino también, cuándo se recurre a ellas y, sobre todo, cuánto se recurre cuándo a qué estructura' (García, 1995)

La formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico

Este artículo presenta una propuesta para la formación de competencias de pensamiento histórico. 1) La conciencia histórica-temporal relacionada con la temporalidad humana, el cambio y el poder sobre el tiempo futuro. 2) La representación de la historia, como la narración y la explicación histórica, para la reconstrucción del pasado. 3) La imaginación histórica, como la empatía y la contextualización, unidas a la formación del pensamiento crítico y creativo, y el juicio moral en la historia. 4) La interpretación histórica basada en el análisis de les fuentes históricas, en la comparación o contraste de textos históricos, y en el conocimiento del proceso de trabajo de la ciencia histórica. Nuestra propuesta de formación del pensamiento histórico está relacionada con la formación democrática de la ciudadanía

Computational models for improved diagnosis and prognosis of stroke using robot-based biomarkers

Stroke is a leading cause of death and permanent disability worldwide, affecting millions of individuals. Traditional clinical scores for assessment of stroke-related impairments are inherently subjective and limited by inter-rater and intra-rater reliability, as well as floor and ceiling effects. In contrast, robotic technologies provide objective, highly repeatable tools for quantification of neurological impairments following stroke. KINARM is an exoskeleton robotic device that provides objective, reliable tools for assessment of sensorimotor, proprioceptive and cognitive brain function by means of a battery of behavioral tasks. As such, KINARM is particularly useful for assessment of neurological impairments following stroke. This thesis introduces a computational framework for assessment of neurological impairments using the data provided by KINARM. This is done by achieving two main objectives. First, to investigate how robotic measurements can be used to estimate current and future abilities to perform daily activities for subjects with stroke. We are able to predict clinical scores related to activities of daily living at present and future time points using a set of robotic biomarkers. The findings of this analysis provide a proof of principle that robotic evaluation can be an effective tool for clinical decision support and target-based rehabilitation therapy. The second main objective of this thesis is to address the emerging problem of long assessment time, which can potentially lead to fatigue when assessing subjects with stroke. To address this issue, we examine two time reduction strategies. The first strategy focuses on task selection, whereby KINARM tasks are arranged in a hierarchical structure so that an earlier task in the assessment procedure can be used to decide whether or not subsequent tasks should be performed. The second strategy focuses on time reduction on the longest two individual KINARM tasks. Both reduction strategies are shown to provide significant time savings, ranging from 30% to 90% using task selection and 50% using individual task reductions, thereby establishing a framework for reduction of assessment time on a broader set of KINARM tasks. All in all, findings of this thesis establish an improved platform for diagnosis and prognosis of stroke using robot-based biomarkers.

Orationes /

v. 4. The last of this edition. cf. "Praefatio": "Pusillo igitur hoc volumine in lucem exeunte confecta est editio Oxoniensis." In this edition the orations are given in the order of the manuscripts on which the text is based; an edition of the orations in their chronological order may follow at some future time.

Using DEM to model ore breakage within a pilot scale SAG mill

The best accepted method for design of autogenous and semi-autogenous (AG/SAG) mills is to carry out pilot scale test work using a 1.8 m diameter by 0.6 m long pilot scale test mill. The load in such a mill typically contains 250,000-450,000 particles larger than 6 mm, allowing correct representation of more than 90% of the charge in Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations. Most AG/SAG mills use discharge grate slots which are 15 mm or more in width. The mass in each size fraction usually decreases rapidly below grate size. This scale of DEM model is now within the possible range of standard workstations running an efficient DEM code. This paper describes various ways of extracting collision data front the DEM model and translating it into breakage estimates. Account is taken of the different breakage mechanisms (impact and abrasion) and of the specific impact histories of the particles in order to assess the breakage rates for various size fractions in the mills. At some future time, the integration of smoothed particle hydrodynamics with DEM will allow for the inclusion of slurry within the pilot mill simulation. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of strategy formulation in an automotive manufacturer

The strategies and operations of the Rover Group were investigated using a behaviour based longitudinal examination. The investigating method used was developed from Mintzberg's classical diachronic study approach through the adoption of an observing participant approach supplemented with probes into specific areas of the organisation's activities. The thesis argues, through the use of a future-forward perspective of organisation capability, that an organisation's future capability can be assessed. The thesis questions the periodisation approach normally adopted in longitudinal studies and proposes an alternative method which the author believes generates a better understanding of the operations and future potential of the organisation. This method also produces generalisations which can be readily applied to other organisations. The introduction of a process perspective to behavioural studies has led to the promise of a unified understanding of strategic management and organisation development.

Computational models for improved diagnosis and prognosis of stroke using robot-based biomarkers

Stroke is a leading cause of death and permanent disability worldwide, affecting millions of individuals. Traditional clinical scores for assessment of stroke-related impairments are inherently subjective and limited by inter-rater and intra-rater reliability, as well as floor and ceiling effects. In contrast, robotic technologies provide objective, highly repeatable tools for quantification of neurological impairments following stroke. KINARM is an exoskeleton robotic device that provides objective, reliable tools for assessment of sensorimotor, proprioceptive and cognitive brain function by means of a battery of behavioral tasks. As such, KINARM is particularly useful for assessment of neurological impairments following stroke. This thesis introduces a computational framework for assessment of neurological impairments using the data provided by KINARM. This is done by achieving two main objectives. First, to investigate how robotic measurements can be used to estimate current and future abilities to perform daily activities for subjects with stroke. We are able to predict clinical scores related to activities of daily living at present and future time points using a set of robotic biomarkers. The findings of this analysis provide a proof of principle that robotic evaluation can be an effective tool for clinical decision support and target-based rehabilitation therapy. The second main objective of this thesis is to address the emerging problem of long assessment time, which can potentially lead to fatigue when assessing subjects with stroke. To address this issue, we examine two time reduction strategies. The first strategy focuses on task selection, whereby KINARM tasks are arranged in a hierarchical structure so that an earlier task in the assessment procedure can be used to decide whether or not subsequent tasks should be performed. The second strategy focuses on time reduction on the longest two individual KINARM tasks. Both reduction strategies are shown to provide significant time savings, ranging from 30% to 90% using task selection and 50% using individual task reductions, thereby establishing a framework for reduction of assessment time on a broader set of KINARM tasks. All in all, findings of this thesis establish an improved platform for diagnosis and prognosis of stroke using robot-based biomarkers.